4/13 Poll: When should we start relaxing the "shelter in place"

[Arles]

Given what we know on 4/13, when should we start relaxing the "shelter in place". This isn't for when we completely drop all social distancing - just when we start allowing business with smaller number of customers (ie, salons and retail) to re-open and maybe even allow restaurants with a cap on people (ie, 25).

[Kodos]

Where's the "When experts say it is okay" option?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Where's the "When experts say it is okay" option?

No need for a poll, then.

[tarcone]

Im hoping there is some sort of vaccine or better treatment plan by the beginning of May. So I put Spring.

[CU Tiger]

Not enough information yet available to answer.
Depends on how this goes...not now is the best answer I have

[Brian Swartz]

I think it has to be conditions-based, not time-based. Because of that, I can't answer this; vaccine is too long. Also agree with the many experts who have said it's not right for it to be the same time everywhere. I think you start relaxing when you have two weeks of declining hospitalizations/cases/deaths in place, and are ready for test-and-trace.

[BYU 14]

I went with mid summer but this is not a one size fits all. Social distancing should still be practiced by those most vulnerable and I don't think it would be wise to start packing stadiums or having large events until we are closer to, or have a vaccine. It seems apparent that this can and will come roaring back with a vengeance if we just causally return to business as usual pre-vaccine. So complete normalcy will be predicated on the time it takes to get a safe, reliable vaccine out there.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Im hoping there is some sort of vaccine or better treatment plan by the beginning of May. So I put Spring.

Not to be a downer on it, but we're doing well if we have a vaccine by May of '21. Better treatment plans probably by fall, but I don't see any of the clinical trials wrapping up before early summer and then you need to ramp up production of whatever drugs are found to be effective. With so many ongoing trials, we can't just do that for all of them now.

[CrimsonFox]

You forgot a selection for NEVER!

[CrimsonFox]

the problem with a vaccine is that there are reports that people are getting reinfected...

I think maybe that has a little to do with multiple strains and mutations going around tho. Still scary tho. That the thought that there may not be a way to prevent getting it
...and multiple times forever after

[JonInMiddleGA]

"Yesterday"

[Arles]

I know we don't have all the information, but one of the knocks (and a fair one, IMO) on the current administration is a lack of planning. I think we are getting to a point where the powers that be need to start planning a for a day when we start relaxing the shelter in place in certain areas (and then expanding). We can't just wake up one day in June, July, August (or later) and decide we are now rolling back the shelter in place restrictions.

A plan needs to be started with accepted procedures, guidelines, situations that expand/contract the rollback, etc. So, people need to start "guessing" when we will be ready and start working towards it. I was just interesting in what this board thought.

[albionmoonlight]

Here is one of the complicating factors:

U.S. Meat Supply Is 'Perilously Close' To A Shortage, Smithfield CEO Warns : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

We all agree that the economy needs to be open. But if a plant is shut down because a bunch of workers get sick, then it is still shut down, even if it is not under a "shelter in place" order.

And, as others have pointed out, the collateral health consequences (suicide, depression, anxiety) that result from people literally losing their livelihoods because of shelter-in-place orders will also be a medical drag on the economy, even if these people never get infected.

No easy answers at all.

[thesloppy]

"Today, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announced an agreement on a shared vision for reopening their economies and controlling COVID-19 into the future."

At least it makes me feel better than relying on Ivanka & the Kush.

Washington, Oregon and California announce Western States Pact | Governor Jay Inslee

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Here is one of the complicating factors:

U.S. Meat Supply Is 'Perilously Close' To A Shortage, Smithfield CEO Warns : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

We all agree that the economy needs to be open. But if a plant is shut down because a bunch of workers get sick, then it is still shut down, even if it is not under a "shelter in place" order.

And, as others have pointed out, the collateral health consequences (suicide, depression, anxiety) that result from people literally losing their livelihoods because of shelter-in-place orders will also be a medical drag on the economy, even if these people never get infected.

No easy answers at all.

We definitely need to open up before the country's supply of bacon is gone.

[PilotMan]

Beyond is the future anyway. Just go with it.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Here is one of the complicating factors:

U.S. Meat Supply Is 'Perilously Close' To A Shortage, Smithfield CEO Warns : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

We all agree that the economy needs to be open. But if a plant is shut down because a bunch of workers get sick, then it is still shut down, even if it is not under a "shelter in place" order.

And, as others have pointed out, the collateral health consequences (suicide, depression, anxiety) that result from people literally losing their livelihoods because of shelter-in-place orders will also be a medical drag on the economy, even if these people never get infected.

No easy answers at all.

And the counter argument to that, I know of at least two semi local poultry producers, that are doing popup bulk chicken truck sales because of their over supply and inability to hold product.

We bought 40lb of boneless skinless breasts and 40lb of boneless thighs for $60 total last week. Figured the freezer would keep it and thats fraction of grocery strore pricing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

"Today, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Oregon Gov. Kate Brown announced an agreement on a shared vision for reopening their economies and controlling COVID-19 into the future."

At least it makes me feel better than relying on Ivanka & the Kush.

Washington, Oregon and California announce Western States Pact | Governor Jay Inslee

NY, NJ, PA, DE, and CT did the same. States have realized they can’t depend on the federal government for any meaningful direction. It will be interesting to see if other coalitions pop up, and if the states that depend on direction from the feds fall behind.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

No need for a poll, then.

No, there isn't. I have no idea, and I dare say no one on this message board knows enough to say, either.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

No, there isn't. I have no idea, and I dare say no one on this message board knows enough to say, either.

[miami_fan]

I went with Mid Summer. I agree with Arles in that there has to be a plan for relaxing the shelter in place. If the time is not right health wise, then the plan shifts to later in the year. Of course it should be in coordination with the health experts and with a way to support the most vulnerable.

The problem is I don't feel like this is going to done gradually. It feels like we are going say on June 1st, we are going open up all the beaches as normal for example. It is not just the government that needs to come up with these plans. What are the plan for say restaurants? Do we the public get to know or even need to know if one of their workers tests positive?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I went with Mid Summer. I agree with Arles in that there has to be a plan for relaxing the shelter in place. If the time is not right health wise, then the plan shifts to later in the year. Of course it should be in coordination with the health experts and with a way to support the most vulnerable.

The problem is I don't feel like this is going to done gradually. It feels like we are going say on June 1st, we are going open up all the beaches as normal for example. It is not just the government that needs to come up with these plans. What are the plan for say restaurants? Do we the public get to know or even need to know if one of their workers tests positive?

I suspect red states will listen to Trump and will reopen recklessly and blue states will likely have a better plan and be more cautious.

[SirFozzie]

Here's the problem. Even when the Shelter-in-place is relaxed, that is not going to be back to normal.

The problem is that people who tell this truth are being sidelined.

Like today, where an aide to the governor of Florida took the state's surgeon general out of a press conference, because he had mentioned that some rules would have to stay in place until there's a vaccine:


Floridians should keep social distancing until a vaccine exists, surgeon general says

After his assertion on social distancing, Scott Rivkees was quickly removed from the room by Gov. Ron DeSantis’ spokeswoman.

I mean, as long as we're in denial of the fact that the "old normal" ain't comin back until there's a vaccine (and maybe not even then, due to the mental effects of this lockdown), we're fighting with one hand behind our back

[SirFozzie]

Dola: There's two regional compacts so far, with a lot of the northeast (except, MA, VT, CT and ME) and one on the west coast trying to make sure there's regional equilibrium with the orders, so for example, folks in one state don't travel to a nearby state that's more opened up, and bring an outbreak back with them.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Dola: There's two regional compacts so far, with a lot of the northeast (except, MA, VT, CT and ME) and one on the west coast trying to make sure there's regional equilibrium with the orders, so for example, folks in one state don't travel to a nearby state that's more opened up, and bring an outbreak back with them.

I bet that these start getting good press, the President gets jealous, and the feds step in to try and disrupt them.

I hope there's enough sense to let things that are working go on. But I'm not optimistic.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I bet that these start getting good press, the President gets jealous, and the feds step in to try and disrupt them.

I hope there's enough sense to let things that are working go on. But I'm not optimistic.

As a resident of one of those states disruption is the best. I suspect he will do all he can to withhold funds, supplies, etc...

[molson]

I don't know when the right time is, but I hope governments are able to give people some kind of tangible hope soon. Case Numbers and deaths are down big in Europe, and are leveling and/or down in the U.S. I think people need to see progress, some hope that they'll pay their rent again someday, some hope that they can see relatives. It doesn't have to be a big-reopening, some smaller shops and restaurants, opening some parks that are currently closed, some schools etc, with a plan and goal for the next step, etc. I think that would go a long way in maintaining mental and physical health, and also peoples' willingness to continue complying with guidelines then if there's just no sign of hope.

[albionmoonlight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...094_story.html

Don't want to put this in the main thread in case it gets political, but isn't this the least surprising conclusion possible, considering the source?

I mean, if education leaders concluded that "eh, turns out that schools weren't really do anything, so no big loss," then that would kind of invalidate their entire professional existence right?

[tarcone]

Could not read the article due to a subscription request.

BUT, you are wrong with what you said. I have long said public schools will be for the poor and those with disabilities, while the rest of the population will send theirs to private schools.

All this does is highlight the need for public education. The importance of adults outside fo the home who have a real love for the students they come into contact with and influence teir lives.

If you can honestly tell me you were not influenced by a teacher in your life, your are i a very small minority.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Could not read the article due to a subscription request.

BUT, you are wrong with what you said. I have long said public schools will be for the poor and those with disabilities, while the rest of the population will send theirs to private schools.

All this does is highlight the need for public education. The importance of adults outside fo the home who have a real love for the students they come into contact with and influence teir lives.

If you can honestly tell me you were not influenced by a teacher in your life, your are i a very small minority.

I am a HUGE fan of public schools.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I am a HUGE fan of public schools.

me too.

We prefer to pay higher taxes and live in a town with great schools than pay for private schooling.

[Arles]

Public schools vary significantly. If you are in an affluent area that pays good property tax, they will probably rival the private schools nearby. If you live in a poor area, they will probably be crap. Many of the wealthy people I know don't send their kids to private school because of the good public options in their area. However, if they lived 20 miles north, I'd almost guarantee they would use a private school.

I understand why some in this thread are saying "you can't make a decision yet". But, we have to start planning. Even if we plan for June and have to push it to July because of the situation when we get to June - atleast a plan would be in place. My guess is the shelters go away in late June, but there are still restriction on larger gatherings (over 20-25) and a call to continue social distancing while people are out. So, if this happens, there needs to be a pretty rock-solid plan in place and ways to change on a dime if things get worse (or better). And, I don't have much confidence in this "dream team" Trump has assembled to do this...

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

What are the plan for say restaurants? Do we the public get to know or even need to know if one of their workers tests positive?

Can't speak for the industry as a whole, but where I work, any positive test as of last I was told means the following:

** worker who tested positive is quarantined and can't work until medically cleared
** All other employees are re-tested, only those with a confirmed negative result return to work
** Restaurant is shut down for a day or so while a third-party company does a thorough cleaning

I'd like to say every restaurant will follow that protocol. I think I know better though. Bottom line is, dine at places that care about these things. You never want to go to a restaurant that doesn't care about food/public safety, but obviously that goes double right now.

Originally Posted by Arles

I understand why some in this thread are saying "you can't make a decision yet". But, we have to start planning. Even if we plan for June and have to push it to July because of the situation when we get to June - atleast a plan would be in place.

Why do we have to plan for a date at all though? I agree that we need to be planning. Why can't it be a conditional plan though? I.e. meet condition X for Y amount of time, then we relax some things. Another Z amount of time and everything's still good, relax more. If it goes sideways, reinstitute whatever restrictions.

[thesloppy]

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Arles

Public schools vary significantly. If you are in an affluent area that pays good property tax, they will probably rival the private schools nearby. If you live in a poor area, they will probably be crap. Many of the wealthy people I know don't send their kids to private school because of the good public options in their area. However, if they lived 20 miles north, I'd almost guarantee they would use a private school.

I understand why some in this thread are saying "you can't make a decision yet". But, we have to start planning. Even if we plan for June and have to push it to July because of the situation when we get to June - atleast a plan would be in place. My guess is the shelters go away in late June, but there are still restriction on larger gatherings (over 20-25) and a call to continue social distancing while people are out. So, if this happens, there needs to be a pretty rock-solid plan in place and ways to change on a dime if things get worse (or better). And, I don't have much confidence in this "dream team" Trump has assembled to do this...

I would say your statement of affluent areas +great and poor= crap.

Now I know this is a message board and you are saying something, but understand othr things. Mt district is in an area that lost its blue collar middle class in 2008. Never recoverd. We are 50+% free and reduced, but our district is very good. We have great teachers who make the best of what we have. Now, we border the biggest district in the state. And it si rich. And they infinitely more programs than our district. And that is the difference. It is what your district can offer. BUT education is what you make of it. My daughter is ranked 4th in hger class and wants to be an aerospace engineer and I believe she can be and will succeed.

[tarcone]

And thesloppy, that is the best thing Ive seen in the last 2 months.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Why do we have to plan for a date at all though? I agree that we need to be planning. Why can't it be a conditional plan though? I.e. meet condition X for Y amount of time, then we relax some things. Another Z amount of time and everything's still good, relax more. If it goes sideways, reinstitute whatever restrictions.

I think that's what I am saying. But you need to have the "relax some things" mapped out well beforehand. What if you think you won't be ready until August, but your conditions are met in June? Plus, the point of this poll is when you think it should happen (using your best guess based on how things have gone to this point). A guess now, may be wrong in a month - but it's interesting to see where people are with this.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think that's what I am saying. But you need to have the "relax some things" mapped out well beforehand. What if you think you won't be ready until August, but your conditions are met in June? Plus, the point of this poll is when you think it should happen (using your best guess based on how things have gone to this point). A guess now, may be wrong in a month - but it's interesting to see where people are with this.

You map it out without a date. You cant set a date on something when you have no idea when it is going to happen. You plan for the eventuality, and even then with flexibility because the "what" that you hope might hope for the beginning of the process could be something different than you expect. "If we come up with an effective therapeutic, then we...". What the therapeutic is, and how it will work determines much of what we do then.

[Arles]

This was more of a prediction exercise to see what people thought - so I know it's not 100%. I was thinking about putting a 5th option (Not sure/Not idea), but my guess is half the people would have picked that one. A little like the "how do you feel" polls done in March, we can do a later one to see the differences when more info is out there.

[Butter]

If the feds weren't involved in telling the states when to shut down, why should they be involved in making any decision about when to "open back up"? Trump can go fuck himself, he has been of no help and has been reduced to playing propaganda tapes at his own press conference to prove what a leader he's been.

There is no reason to listen to the feds when they've been of very little help generally speaking.

As for the regional compacts, I'd love to see IN, IL, MI, and OH join up. KY would almost have to join by default because Northern Kentucky has so many people tied to Cincinnati. Louisville / Indiana in a similar situation, but more on the KY side.

[Arles]

Yeah, I don't get how Trump is now saying he is running these states on this. He completely stayed out of it in the start and it is pretty clear that reopening will be more of a state/region thing. The idea that a state like New Mexico, Utah or Oregon would have to wait for New York to get to the same spot is silly.

[whomario]

When advances in the toolkit (Tests, protective gear, tracing/tracking) at least somewhat cancel out the added contacts and infections.
When you manage to identify a higher percentage of infected (which you can then quarantine and warn their contacts to do the same) you can afford more contacts.
When you can guarantee that every Doctor and Nurse has access to proper gear (including retirement homes) and regular testing, you can afford more infections in the public because you subtract some of the risk for medical personnel to catch it and spread it (f.e. in Retirement homes).

Basically you need to have sufficient improvement in other tools/ressources before you put away the one tool you know is working. If you don't get that right, all you acomplish is having to go get that tool again.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, I don't get how Trump is now saying he is running these states on this. He completely stayed out of it in the start and it is pretty clear that reopening will be more of a state/region thing. The idea that a state like New Mexico, Utah or Oregon would have to wait for New York to get to the same spot is silly.

And once a state complies and cases/deaths go up he will say it was the states decision or they messed up the execution of his wonderful plan

[GrantDawg]

My understanding of most of the actual science-based plans (ie. nothing that Trump would actually follow) has opening beginning after 14 days of declines of new cases. What follows is where no one agrees. One plan calls for 22 million tests processed a day. I can't see that ever happening. Most also calls for contract tracing, so that the government follows your phone, and if you test positive everyone you came into contact with gets an alert to shelter in place. South Korea has that system in place, but I again can't see us ever agreeing to that. My guess is that Red States are going to open up in the next few weeks, well before they should and without a logical plan. Then?...

[Brian Swartz]

I voted late Spring after pondering Arles' thoughts. We should be ready by then. I don't know if we will be. A yo-yo wouldn't surprise me; i.e. opening up some places in May, too soon, rash of deaths, close back up again, blaming going full-speed in every imaginable direction. My sense of things is that we are at, but not past, the current peak right now.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I voted late Spring after pondering Arles' thoughts. We should be ready by then. I don't know if we will be. A yo-yo wouldn't surprise me; i.e. opening up some places in May, too soon, rash of deaths, close back up again, blaming going full-speed in every imaginable direction. My sense of things is that we are at, but not past, the current peak right now.

The issue I see is that people are dumb - there is going to be a crack opened and people are going to go full bore and push the limit. Instead, they should gradually open up themselves. Maybe go to a restaurant that has spread itself out to deal with the virus as opposed to a bar that is way too crowded. I just fear the later is going to happen (and some bars are going to be - well technically we had around 50 customers which was the limit)

[Arles]

So here's my question, if you take out restaurants on the "first pass" - what is really different if we open up salons, certain work offices and small businesses? I still see a ton of people at Costco/Sam's and grocery stores right now. Is a salon with 6-7 customers spaced apart in chairs that much worse than a grocery store with 5 people on top of each other in the Easter clearance area?

As Imran says, I think restaurants will be tough. But, if we have opened the other small businesses and found ways to still social distance, hopefully we can come up with measures to prevent Cinco de Mayo parties with 100 people at bars.

[ISiddiqui]

That's not a bad idea. But I bet the pressure to open restaurants will be intense. But I can totally get behind let's open up smaller businesses with a smaller footprint with adequate distancing. Enforcement may be a bear, but it would be the best first step.

[Arles]

Yeah, restaurants dining in (and the bars) will be tough. It's tough to manage anyway but then you throw in everyone who's been stuck inside for two months ready to throw caution to the wind. Not sure the answer there.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Arles

So here's my question, if you take out restaurants on the "first pass" - what is really different if we open up salons, certain work offices and small businesses? I still see a ton of people at Costco/Sam's and grocery stores right now. Is a salon with 6-7 customers spaced apart in chairs that much worse than a grocery store with 5 people on top of each other in the Easter clearance area?

The one challenge with salons is the length of interaction and having another person's hands on you. If that person is asymptomatic it would be significantly more likely to spread than a cashier at a retailer.