What a FOOL Believes - a Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Here's the hook:

I play in a multi-player FOF league, called the Front Office Offseason League, or FOOL. It's an interesting setup - running each full season in two weeks real time. The hitch is we turn injuries off and run the whole regular season in one sim, and then whole postseason in the next one. The league is mainly about the offseason, obviously.

FOOL Forums

It's also imperfect for me. For reasons that no longer have relevance, the league turned chemistry off. I tend to rely heavily on the FOF chemistry system to get an edge in multi-player (that might even be an understatement). My willingness to stick with that construct when most owners won't helps me overcome my deficits in insightful drafting and expert gameplanning (my own assessment - I'm not terrible, but I'm nowhere near the top of the heap in either, I suspect). So, I'm at something of a disadvantage in FOOL, but I stay in the league and use it as something of a sandbox.


Anyway - about this thread:

-I plan to start making notes about my team here, sharing some of my thinking, and hoping to add some more immersion for myself in this league. I find that writing about what I do adds a sense of accountability, and to me that adds enjoyment. So, this is mainly for me.

-To the extent you enjoy the thread, great, it can be for you, too.

-And here's my real goal. Maybe I won't be alone, and maybe this can become a multi-owner dynasty thread. I plan to post something at the FOOL forums, inviting others to start documenting their teams' actions and successes/failures here as well. If it all comes together and four or five of us are regularly updating our actions and thinking in real time -- but all in the same league against one another -- I think that could be pretty cool.


That's the seed idea. I hope I stick with it, and I hope it catches on at least a little bit.

[QuikSand]

So, I run the Baltimore Ravens. Here's some of the online information about the team and its history under me. I've been in charge since the beginning - and have mediocre results. Of late, we have been what I term as a second-tier team... usually either in the playoffs or close to it, but not really a serious threat to win it all very often.

The last six years have all had double-digit wins, we made it to the title game once, and managed to add another runner-up trophy to my expansive cabinet of same from multiple leagues (not joking there).

Team History

Right now, the centerpiece players on the team are a 4th year top-grade RB, and a standout cornerback (who looks like he might be one of those "rare talent" players I believe in). We have loaded up on defensive linemen through free agency, and have four very solid guys there (only one drafted), so I have a lot of cap tied up there. We have one strong (but venerable) WR and not much else at the position... so we have basically moved to a 2TE offense. We drafted a solid TE last year, added a pretty good veteran in free agency, and have an expensive 13th year guy now on the trade block and possible cut bubble. The OL is mediocre, as are the LB and remainder of the DB corps.

And at QB, I'm just through a 3 year experiment with a new QB, and will be moving on from him. I have several guys signed, nobody special, and will likely just cast my lot with whomever looks best after training camp. This is a major team weakness. I'd rather have a strong QB than my three expensive DL, but you get what you get. (More on background later, I guess, but this league has not had much happening in free agency, and so any time a quality guy makes it thee he really gets PAID)

FOOL is just into the late free agency of its 2052 season. I just got a look at my draft -- not looking great. We drafted a C with pick 1.23, and while 30/70 looks okay, it's not what I had hoped for. Elsewhere, it looks like we landed a rotation-caliber CB and a couple other useful but not special spare parts at LB and WR.

I have signed a ton of speculative cheap free agents this season (that's my m.o., get used to it) so I have 68 guys on hand before late free agency. I will likely sign another half dozen guys here, and have to cut down before camp.

Current Roster

[Young Drachma]

I had to do a double take. Heh.

[crusher78]

Cool idea Quick. I hope this takes off.

I’m the owner of the Arizona Cardinals

Team Record

Been the owner from the inception of this league and this has been my very first endeavor into MP with any sort of game…EVER. So to say I’m a novice would be an understatement. If Quick considers his team 2nd tier, then I’m 3rd or 4th tier. I am happy to say that I’m coming off back-to-back 11-5 seasons, making it all the way to the championship last year, but losing a close one. I consider my team lucky to get there, as our roster isn’t full of stars.

Roster

I’ve had some success with star WR’s and mediocre QB’s. My receivers are led by Dean Soliday and Sammy Baker. Also have a great pass rusher at WLB in Ty Elliott. He was a gem from the draft 4 seasons ago at pick 1(15). A good run stopper, with excellent PRT & PRSt. Elliott was rated 1st at his position last year and won the coveted FOOL 2051 Defensive Player of the year Dogbyte award, racking up 22.5 sacks and 87 tackles.

I see the upcoming years being a challenge for the Cards. With an aging roster and the results from the last 3 draft classes being atrocious. The combine accuracy was recently set to 39 for this league and I’m still adjusting my draft strategies. Of course, picking later in the draft has also hurt my talent acquired.

[QuikSand]

In late free agency, Baltimore picks up another half dozen or so spare-parts type guys. In this league there's a lot of unused cap room, so when a youngster of some value frees up he usually gets paid here -- so I miss out on this guy:

WR Trent Burnett

Nice enough role player, good kick returner, probably going to be good enough to be a WR2 somewhere. I missed otu offering 2/13 and lost to 2/15... life goes on.

Elsewhere, I mostly pick up minsal guys nobody else wants. Fun little note, though, I frequently put in a 2yr minsal offer with $20K bonus, and free agents pretty universally PREFER this to a 1yr minsal deal with zero bonus, though I'm not sure that logic holds up that well in FOF world.

Anyway... a guy who strikes me as interesting here is this DB:

CB Les Hancock

Second year guy, my scout sees him as being at least credible in zone coverage (which I use a good deal when we drop back extra DBs) and he has that big interceptions bar. If he had a legit ST score - even just 50-55, he would probably be a cheap Raven for life now. As it stands, he'll be a bubble guy I weigh alongside other marginal minsal types... he probably gets to preseason and then drops off when we squeeze to 53.

[QuikSand]

So, FOOL ran training camp.. not the super-exciting stage it once was back in the olden days of FOF, but still meaningful. BenELou runs the league, and that means it comes complete with a battery of awesome toys - like a solid analysis of the rookie class before it becomes "final."

Here's the post-camp thread:
FOOL DELIGHTFUL AND DIRTY DOZENS

And if this sounds like an advertisement for BELCO leagues, well, it is. He's the man.

Anyway - here's the bottom line for Baltimore:

-Five of our draft picks are graded as "meaningful" -- our guys from rounds 1,2,3,5,7. I think I already cut the others even before camp. That collectively ranks us 12th in the league -- drafting from position 1.23 and on down, that's not too bad.

-C Josue Doyle (pick 1.23) looks okay to me - 36/68 by my scout, but slightly more pass blocking than run blocking, which isn't really what I wanted from a first round center. (To merit that early a pick, I was hoping for a 40/80 guy with a 90 future in run blocking) So, he'll be fine and needed, but not a massive impact player. I'll have to decide whether he's a center or guard for the long haul - he switches at 93/94%, and that may make sense, especially if he's not a star road grader.

-Elsewhere in the draft, it looks like 2nd round CB Brendan Grubbs will be what I hoped for -- a rotation-level cover man, ace special teamer, and very good kick returner. WR Bennie Burns, our 4th rounder, is a profile I kinda like - decent skills but almost nothing at route running, meaning he's bound for a role like WR4 if he sticks for a few years, mostly staying out of the way of guys with actual talent. Other draftees are marginal contributors, I think, nothing special.

We'll watch in the preseason stages for ratings movement, where it matters more. I need to cut ten players for that stage, and many of our younger "chaff" players are going to be pitted up against veterans for bubble spots... it's just the nature of playing the way I do. It's tough to know whether this team is in a "go for it" mode at any point. With a hobo at QB, it's tough to feel like this is the year to really push in and hold on to veterans for cohesion, etc... but if that year never comes, then what are you building toward?

[QuikSand]

QB Dilemma

So, this is a one-shot league. The whole regular season runs in one sim - so things like playing time are tricky. I have two top candidates to start at QB, neither of whom are really thrilling, but the one-shot nature of the league adds a twist.

Bryan Jean - the anxious insider

Shaquille Upshaw - the shiny newcomer

If you're inclined to check them out, you will see the basics fairly easily, but here's my summary:

-Jean can run around, knows 15 formations (4x 2TE), and is in year four on the team for cohesion purposes.

-Upshaw can run a bit, has a bit better important bars at sense rush and accuracy, knows 16 formations (5x 2TE)

If they had both just been signed, I'd put in Upshaw. The cohesion angle is the extra wrench - Jean is already demanding a trade, so he'll just walk if we don't start him this year (and then re-up for one more cheap season after the regular season ends).

Still leaning toward Upshaw, and in a no-injury league, that likely means Jean gets walking papers before the season starts. We'll see if the preseason ratings move makes this tricky.

[QuikSand]

FOOL Baltimore Ravens Roster

After the preseason:

-C Josue Doyle now looks like a pretty nice second round pickup at offensive guard. Problem is, we spent a 1st round pick on him to be an anchor center. Fail.

-The rest of our draft looks about the same as before. Undrafted rookie RB Dusty Shaughnessy wins the backup RB job and booms +11 in preseason - he'll be a high-elusiveness guy with workable bars elsewhere. I don't need much with a stud RB and no injuries. LT Martin Van Pelt may be a long term starter for us, albeit an unexciting one -- but maybe the sort of guy we keep around for cohesion and affordability. LB Ryan Foley is a nice well-rounded dude, probably a 200-play guy in time. WR Bennie Burns loses some of his luster, and may not make the roster.

-At QB, we had ratings bumps from both guys who are fighting for playing time -- Shaq Upshaw is now a mighty 32/36 overall, and Jean is now 30/32. I know, neither of these guys merits a role leading a legitimate american football team, but here we are. I'm actually tempted to play Jean this year in a contract angle -- Upshaw might re-sign long term next season really cheaply, and I could keep Jean around if I give him playing time now. Not sure what to do yet.

-TE Martin Lester has gotten no nibbles on the trade block, which is not a shock, he's a 13th year rental. A -9 in preseason is expected, but he's still a special teams ace (100 by my scout) and a TE1 for us, if he stays. I don't have much reason to cut him, I think we just squeeze one more solid season from him in our 2TE offense, and use the lesser playing time to try to reneg down someone else next offseason. (TE Qualls, our offseason acquisition there, took an unexpected -10 hit, so he looks like the candidate for the rest, dammit) Carrying 5 TEs seems stupid, but here we are yet again.

-In less exciting news, our WR corps is a real worry now. Our stalwart Floyd Cochrane is in year 11, he's declining, but is still by far our best option there. Only 81 targets last year, though... not sure what happened. My best option to start at SE is probably Bailey (34/34) who is about as thrilling as a stick of chewing gum - solid RR, little else, totally wrong. No good options, other than to tank for a stud receiver this year (no not really). Thus the 2TE setup, mostly.

-We are rated 2nd overall in the BELCO team power rating system, that tries to look at everything. With our QB situation, I don't think this is a power team by any stretch, but it wouldn't be a shock if we mustered 10 or more wins, especially if we can manage to get something modest like a +8 from our QB (like a line of 25 TD to only 17 Int, rather than the other way around).

My predictions:

-RB Barry Pullen logs another 300 carries and probably nets 2,000 total yards again...he's clearly our centerpiece player at this point

-Our defensive front get its act together and steps up our numbers there - we should be top-5 in PR% and that should help the defense a ton, and help cover up talent pool problems elsewhere on that side of the ball

-QB (insert name here) gives us a competent but not great effort, with a passer rating around 85-90, and a ratio of something like 24/18

-Baltimore manages to go 10-6, posts something like a +40 in total points, and looks like a great candidate to go one-and-out in the postseason

[QuikSand]

Interesting player conundrum with this guy:

RT Justics Barker

So, he looks like a pass blocking stud, with little to offer in run blocking. Great for older versions of FOF, I guess, but supposedly less so here.

It pains me to carry a red flag guy period, but I have no idea what that means in a chemistry-off setting. But that's a factor for me, too.

More seriously, though... do I develop this guy thinking he will one day be a starter? Wouldn't I just be happier with a guy we can get for 2x minsal most offseasons -- the standard sort of 38/38 balanced bars guy that some team got as a 4th rounder and didn't bother to re-sign after his 4 years as a part-time player? (I basically make my living off those guys in multi-player)

Edit: or, hell, why not just keep this guy around - I apparently signed him this offseason for just that reason.

Not sure yet -- this guy is on our bubble for sure. As I type, I'm down to 56 and having trouble making the last few cuts (as always).

[QuikSand]

Note: Wow, did Father Time ever whack our defense around this preseason. Yikes.

[crusher78]

It was a defensive year for the Arizona Cardinals as we finished 9-7. The defense was ranked 4th overall, 3rd in scoring, 5th vs. the pass and 11th vs. the run. Three members of this squad were honored with pro bowl selections:

SILB Rusty Brierton (101 tkl, 46 assists, 2.0 sacks, 2 hurries, 5 INTs, 4 psdef, 41 allowed, 79.2 PDPct.)

WLB Ty Elliott (81 tkl, 31 assists, 12.0 sacks, 27 hurries, 1 INTs, 3 psdef, 20 allowed, 79.9 PDPct.)

FS Toby Selfridge (60 tkl, 23 assists, 8 INTs, 15 psdef, 34 allowed, 87.4 PDPct.) and recipient of the Orwell Boxer Award with the highest participation

Cohesion must have given this defense, particularly the secondary a boost. SS Louie Ahern, while in decline, has been manning the secondary with Selfridge for 10 straight seasons. Add in 5 years of “Railway” Pete Riley and 2 years of Adam Stone at corner and these guys know every move their team mates are going to make.

Elliott was the #1 rated WLB for the 2nd year in a row and tacked on a 3rd straight pro bowl. He actually saw a drop in sacks from 22.5 down to 12, but did still manage 27 hurries and 24 knockdowns. All those double-teams on Elliott led to a career year in sacks for 9th year veteran SLB J.C. Cooper with 13 sacks.

The offense was pedestrian at best, with an overall league ranking 18th. The seventeenth scoring offense was 21st vs. the run and 18th vs. the pass. No Cardinal offensive players earned pro bowl honors. In fact, the only offensive player to earn any sort of recognition was Dean Soliday, a perennial pro bowler and sure hall of famer, who earned the dubious Jackie Smith Award for leading the league with 20 drops on 83 catches for a 24.1% drop rate.

Quarterback Marco Gaylor, playing his last season in Arizona, won’t get the big paycheck he wants in his walk year by putting up the stat line of 3,445 yards, 54.4% completion rate, 19 TD’s, 21 Int’s and 25 sacks for an overall QB rating of 71.0 and league rating of 18th best QB.

The O-line was led by veterans Stephen Neiderhiser at C and Corey Grier at LT, but the likes of Brayden Stevens shouldn’t have made the roster, let alone start at RT.

A mediocre draft class which was picked from the 31st position saw number 1 pick Mitch Bixby, who developed fairly nice in the pre-season catch 13 balls for 126 yards and 1 TD. He will see his workload increase next season. Second round pick SLB Kendrick Givgore saw most of his time on the field with the special teams, did manage 5 tackles, 1 sack and a fumble recovery. Rookie free agent NT Patrick Sanford chipped in with 40 tkl, 13 assists, 4.5 sacks, 12 hurries all from the bench to earn him the defensive misfit of the year award.

This off-season the priorities will be to find a new leader at QB, fill in some gaps on the O-line and D-lines.

[QuikSand]

With real life intruding, I managed to not only miss a post here, but missed yesterday entirely in FOOL -- meaning I didn't get in a stage file for the last chance to re-up contracts. I don't even have the game open to see what happened yet, or whether this is a big costly mistake... but things happen. Alas.

[QuikSand]

Baltimore Ravens, 2052

FOOL: Baltimore Ravens 2052

10-6 record nets us the division title and an unjustified #2 seed and bye week

QB Upshaw posts a ratio of 25/26 (worse than hoped for) and a passer rating of only 72.7

RB Pullen is the man, with north of 2,300 total yards

2052 TEAM STATISTICS
TOTAL OFFENSE: 342.4 ypg (#11)
RUSHING OFFENSE: 147.6 ypg (#6)
PASSING OFFENSE: 204.1 ypg (#24)
SCORING OFFENSE: 23.7 ppg (#9)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 312.5 ypg (#11)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 132.2 ypg (#27)
PASSING DEFENSE: 202.1 ypg (#6)
SCORING DEFENSE: 19.3 ppg (#8)

Looks like the starting DEs had a solid year (35 sacks between them) and our defense was pretty solid.

So...not too bad.

[QuikSand]

Baltimore manages a win in the divisional round over Jacksonville, but stumble and lose to 9-7 wild card upstart Buffalo in the conference title game, and they go on to win it all.

Heading into 2053, we face one gigantic mistake -- by not extending RB Barry Pullen, he will be a free agent, and on the open market as a 5th year guy. That was a big blunder - had I been more responsible with my NFL draft night revelry, I would have extended him for certain. Alas, live and learn.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

RB Pullen is the man, with north of 2,300 total yards

RUSHING OFFENSE: 147.6 ypg (#6)

Nice! Never seen someone with my last name in the game.

[QuikSand]

So, while Baltimore has some cap space to spend, I don't expect to re-sign RB Pullen -- he will likely get a monster contract elsewhere, and we will be back at the drawing board. I am mostly a "good value" guy in FOF, and only spend crazy money when I have it lying around, or for keystone type guys for my system. Pullen would have re-signed for about $25m/yr and I was prepared to pay that, but I messed up (real life) and will have to move on, likely.

I have made a trade offer to try to get into the top of the first round in this draft. Sadly, FOOL is carrying several open teams, and a few of the early picks are held by AVAILABLE. I'm trying to trade with a human-owned team, but have no idea if the silence is due to him being an unannounced walkaway or just lack of interest. I would like to land one impact player, and am willing to take a chance that the AI teams pass on a guy I like a lot.

[QuikSand]

Okay in the first stage of free agency - we find the fate of RB Pullen.

He's heading to Washington. Subby, the GM there, has decided to make a living in the cap-unlimited leagues by paying fat 2-yr (or even 1yr) contracts to the best free agents, and he does so here. Turns out his fat offer was only slightly better than mine -- I was willing to overpay, at least in my book. WAS gets Pullen for 2/73, BAL offered merely 2/70. Loyalty can go suck an egg.

By the way, I'm not trying to attack the strategy -- if a league doesn't rein in the salary cap, then good players are too easily renegotiated, and it's uncommon to really feel too constrained (unless you're an ace drafter, perhaps, and have too many "pretty good"players to keep). So, the Subby plan works fine here - and I use it myself when it suits me.

Next season FOOL is going to initiate a 10% cap reduction, which should help things a bit. In a no-injury league I think that's too small, but this too a while to get in place, so I won't complain. It should move things in a better direction.


Baltimore does re-sign DT Pedro Midget, who ably handles our interior, on a 2-year deal -- he came to us in just one of these overpay-the-free-agent guys, but I haven't felt a need to extend him, just re-up in the open market.

[QuikSand]

Oh, and the team I tried to trade up with in the draft turned out to be a ghost after all (walkaway owner *spits on ground*) so, no dice there.

I was right, though - at pick 5 I would have had a choice between a couple of max-bar defensive players who would have been nice to have around.

Alas, we will do our best with the remainders at the bottom of the first round.

[Cap Ologist]

I'll chime in as well. I was in the league a few months ago with the Chargers, then took a short break, and have returned as the Chicago Bears. Last season, they went 4-12 and had the #3 pick in the draft which the AI used to take a DE that looks like he could be a monster.

The Chargers were an offensive juggernaut in our heyday, so this time around, I'm thinking of going the opposite way and trying to build a nasty defense oriented team. I'm not really expecting much in the way of success this coming season. We have an ok qb, average running back on offense. We have a few decent defenders, but unless we hit on picks in the 3-7 rounds, we'll probably be another 4 win team next year.

[QuikSand]

FREE AGENCY

Baltimore rebounds from missing out on our own RB by signing... another RB. Why not?

RB J.R. Guerrierri

He is also a 5th year guy, who inexplicably didn't sign any of his offers in stage 2, so we beat them in stage 3 and landed him. Overpaid in the cosmic scheme, likely. Overpaid in the league context? You be the judge:

2053

FA Stage 3
signed as an unrestricted free agent from Denver: 2yrs, $54,000,000.
2053

FA Stage 3
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $84,490,000.
2053

FA Stage 3
turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $37,500,000.
2053

FA Stage 3
turned down a contract offer: 4yrs, $73,360,000.

I paid him $27m/yr, his next best offer was just over$21m, but included more total bonus. I am not sure I get him if my offer was just 2/50, especially since it wasn't all bonus.

Anyway, we also spent some short term cash on this guy:

G Robert Godfrey

...and in him we land a pretty solid, pretty young lineman to drop right into a relative team weakness. And with that. we are likely done with big splash free agent signings for this year. With a cap crunch coming next season, and a couple expensive extensions ahead this offseason, I need to mind my money.


DRAFT STARTS

After failing to trade up into the top tier of the draft, I then try to trade out of our late first rounder. I get one offer - a future 1st for my picks at 1.30 and 2.30, and decide to pass. Might have been worth it, but I liked my top remaining pick enough to skip it.

We draft an OT that looks to me like a future 65/65 type of guy, a little biased toward pass blocking. Hopefully our future starter at LT. He's very under-developed, and that's a worry, but on this team he could start as soon as next year and hopefully won't turn out to be a total turd. Drafting linemen, signing linemen... we might as well just run the veer.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I paid him $27m/yr, his next best offer was just over$21m, but included more total bonus. I am not sure I get him if my offer was just 2/50, especially since it wasn't all bonus.

So, about that. Maybe not to much, then.

Two more guys landed at what I judge to be pretty decent value prices:

WR Caden Elway

We are just about to lose our WR1 to father time, and really have nothing much behind him in the queue. Elway gives us a respectable guy who likely becomes our top WR target as soon as next season. 5th year guy, he'll drop more than his fair share, but I can't live without at least one credible guy at the position. I actually dialed back my offer between stages and still got him. (Strategy? Dumb luck? Who can say.)

LB Micah Richard

A $14m coverage-first linebacker who plays a position I just drafted for? SIGN ME UP.

So... the finances will have to work themselves out, but the real crunch is a season away, and our current top WR and SS both come off the books by then, I think. I'm hopeful.

[QuikSand]

DRAFT

Round two, I have a couple other players I find intriguing, but I can't help but take a swing at the QB pinata. Please understand - I have precious little idea what I'm doing drafting at this point, and an even looser grasp when it comes to the mysterious QB position. Other than "tank a season and draft an obvious stud" I don't know how to get a good signal caller - so I tend to gather mediocre stiffs off the waiver wire.

Here, I'm dumping my late 2nd rounder (not too steep a price, I guess) on a guy who looks like he will be pretty mobile (I am fascinated by this, for some reason), scouts as having a good but not great sense rush bar (anticipating a run-focused OL), and scored pretty highly (38) on the Sol test, that I hope translates to relatively few interceptions. He was also the #30 overall prospect on the big board, and I kinda sniff that might be partially pegged to the hidden avoid interceptions rating. So... he seemed like a decent gamble.

The two guys I considered for this 2nd round pick are still on the board at 3.22, so the main takeaway here is I am a dope in the draft. I have some offsetting strengths, but I'm not at my best here.

[Cap Ologist]

In round 2, I put 15 guys on my list. We're in the 6th round and three are still on my list. Not sure what that means, but probably not a good thing.

[Cap Ologist]

1 - 3 Clyde Carpenter DE Utah
2 - 2 (34)Randall Schneekloth QB Arkansas
3 - 3 (67) Elias Lyons RB Fresno State
4 - 2 (98) Corbin Alexander CB Maryland
5 - 3 (131) Vincent Kelly DT Western Michigan
6 - 2 (162) Miguel Delgado CB Louisville
7 - 3 Hayden Beekman G Clemson

No real idea on how these will turn out, went defense heavy with an emphasis on guys who might be able to play some special teams. The RB looks like he could be a good 3rd down back. We'll see.

[QuikSand]

Busy work, real life, and now FOF tech problems have prevented me updating lately. Nothing too exciting, really. and it looks very likely I'm just going to miss the late free agency stage. Meh.

[QuikSand]

Lovely twist here...QB Shaq Upshaw is holding out (not a shock). Since I can't get into the game to do anything (just barely noticed the holdout mark on him before it crashed again) I'll miss this stage and might lose him forever. No great loss, I don't think, but this is pretty tedious.

As is writing this boring thread, I fear.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we missed the late free agency stage - usually a chance for me to grab some roster filler. Alas, our current roster is pretty loaded with filer as it stands, so no major harm done.

QB Upshaw wants $19m/yr. Nope. I put in a one yera deal that I can afford, but if he doesn't sign I will just go with Will Ogden, an early draft pick elsewhere who didn't pan out in big bars. He'll likely be okay.

Past that, our first look at the draft confirms most of my guesses - early OT looks great but underdeveloped, QB is a meh, DBs will be useful.

The QB contract watch is the main show for the training camp stage ahead.

[QuikSand]

QB Upshaw rejects my 1yr/$9m offered extension to start for a playoff team, and likely just gets a pink slip soon. He'll presumably become an AI-offered 1yr/minsal guy and probably never start a game again anywhere. Life goes on.

Our 1st round OT is listed atop BELCO's list of draft poppers (Delightful dozen) so that's good...but he only lists one other draftee as being anything of note.

[QuikSand]

As our two starting safeties are both holding out, I put in an offer on a rookie that nobody wanted, and it looks like we landed a gem.

S Jessie Desai

So, if push comes to shove (i.e. if the second S doesn't relent) this guy is going to be our starter this year, probably at SS. I'm okay with that.

[QuikSand]

So, with QB Upshaw... there's bad news and there's good news, and there's baffling news if you're so deeply immersed that you actually think about this game as being real football.

BAD NEWS - I put in a last-ditch offer to Upshaw, for him to make $11m this year, mostly bonus. Be turned it down, wanting a monster deal for $21m/yr or so. So, no shock there.

GOOD NEWS - However, he then relented on his holdout. So, he will play for us this year after all, on his original minsal contract.

BAFFLING - self-evident

Anyway... I think that clearly puts him back in the saddle for this year, he's got a better apparent skill set than any of our other guys. And after a first season as a starter now behind him, he'd be eligible for a more forward if he has it in him. So, that's okay.


Elsewhere on the roster:

Rookie ratings movement:
GREAT: T(1) Bullock +15 (now 35/82)
GOOD: S(U) Desai +12, CB(7) Schwartz +6, LB(5) Lilly +16
FLAT: CB(4) Dillon =, QB(2) Buckner -3
DOWN: CB(3) Hayes -10 (but still looks quite good to my scout)
BUSTO: WR(6) Cortez -7

I'm not certain, but I think Buckner might still prove to be good enough to start for us next season. 15 formations is a good sign, and if he's just a DLG guy I might be okay with that. Unless Upshaw really steps up, he's just a stopgap.

WR Cochrane will remain our WR1, in our heavy 2TE offense, leaving Elway a season to warm up to the system here. Cochrane is in rapid decline, but he's still decent and he's a big cohesion guy for us. I think he will be okay, maybe 700/8 on about 100 targets.

CB Parker Grande is going to make about $12m as a fill-in DB and special teamer this year. Thus is the price of cohesion.

S Bernie Lyle remains a holdout, and in this league that's a cut. I'll sort out the starting job between rookie Desai and one of our zone-first cornerbacks. I will get my new pet player, CB Les Hancock on the field this year, though, one way or another (likely as a backup S and maybe dimeback).

[QuikSand]

I think we are in stasis. Our roster is pretty decent all around, we lost a lot of DB cohesion but are getting better there along the D7, so maybe the D is a push? On offense, I expect our running game will remain good, despite the avoidable drop in RB quality and cohesion there. The rest shoudl be adequate.

That sort of team could go 8-8 or 12-4, with my guess probably more in the middle of that. I'll guess 10-6 and yet another longshot playoff entrant, but not a power team. If Upshaw suddenly turns into a 28/10 guy then maybe we are indeed a bye week team, but I rather doubt that happens.

[QuikSand]

2053 Regular Season

So, we manage a solid 11-5 season, win the division, but lose out to Ben's Oakland team for the second bye slot (behind the mighty AVAILABLE steering Buffalo). So, that's a bit better than my expectations, but without the bye and home field, we're still a marginal title player... maybe 15-1 in the betting lines, I'd say.

Here's the summary page:
FOOL: Baltimore Ravens 2053

Notables:

-Running game was still good, but dropped off as we slipped in RB talent, Guerrierri is solid but not as good a fit as Pullen was. So it goes.

-QB Upshaw improved (22/14, 88 rating) but is nothing special at the QB position. He will likely want big money in free agency next year, and he won't get it from us, I don't think, unless we are really out of options.

-WR Cochrane mildly exceeded expectations as WR1, and our 2TE set worked pretty well with our top two guys posting over 900 yards (but Qualls at only 6/5 ypt). Elway is fine and likely slots right in as WR1 next season.

-Our pass rush was really disappointing this season - Ellard only 11 sacks, and nobody else with big numbers. The D overall was okay, but that's worrisome - I feel like we count on a big pressure to make this D work.

-CB Jeremy Richardson is a flat out stud. 13 picks this year might (should?) get him DPOY honors, and he's very solid in coverage, too. We will lock him up this stage to a multi-year deal.

-Our special teams should not be overlooked -- our returns are creeping into elite status, with our main return men averaging 34+ on kickoffs, and 12.6 on punts. I don't have the game open, but expect our returns conceded are above average, too. I'm investing there, it's paying off.

Solid season. Tough to fall one game short of a bye, but we're pretty pleased with being #3 I guess.

[Cap Ologist]

We went 4-12, we had a few bright spots on defense, but we have major work to do there and on the OL. We averaged 2.7 yards per carry so we have some work to do there as well. We allowed qbs to complete about 70% of their passes and convert 3rd downs about 37% of the time. My first draft sucked, most of those guys will be released depending on the cap situation next year. Shockingly, we weren't the worst team in the league this year, so we have that going for us.

[QuikSand]

2053 Postseason

We win at home against Kansas City, but fall to the mighty AVAILABLE managing Buffalo. That dude seems to have my number.

The Colts win it all, edging out the Washington team who got a 3,000+ yard season (rushing and receiving) year out of RB Pullen. Bleh.


We only have one retirement - our crappy starter at WLB. So, we'll be back next season looking to do the usual shuffle to put together another 10-6 caliber team to not seriously threaten for the league title. Rinse. Repeat.

[QuikSand]

Early preseason - most interesting twist here is that three solid starting QBs have been cast off, presumably due to cap worries (we are triggering a 10% cap crunch this season) -- but since I have spent so much, I basically have no way to afford any of them. Well, I guess if you have a team "all set save for the QB" that means you spent some real cash to get there - and that's true in my case. So, this isn't cruel irony. We will likely go into another season with a low-rated "do enough" guy, trying to win with the cast around him. Former Raven Bryan jean is available, and cheap, in fee agency - we may kick the tires there in the later FA stages.

[QuikSand]

Free agency is going to be pretty boring for Baltimore - we have only a $13m "max" offer, and we are seeing guys going off the board for big money, as usual. With the cap crunch, it's the AI teams snapping up the big quarterbacks for big bucks thus far -- two 60s-rated guys getting deals for $60m/yr plus (that's close to 20% of the salary cap). The 5th year guy is probably worth it, not sure about the 13th year guy who got a fat three year deal (but he did pilot Washington to the title game last season).

We ink a minsal receiver who might be a solid WR3 or WR4 - that's the sort of move I will be focusing on this offseason, mainly. I'm going to get pushed off my offers for a lot of that kind of guy, but I'm in it for value -- he's a nice complementary piece, but he's not going to make my team a winner. If someone steps in and offers 1.25x minsal (and no veteran discount as a result) then I'm out of the bidding and will find someone else. That simple.

[QuikSand]

FA Stage 3 - nothing much to see here. Re-signed an old OL for minsal. Yay.

For stage 4, Our top WR is looking to settle on a new contract. I think he's a candidate to get snapped up by AVAILABLE. He'd be good for us if only for cohesion, but he wants something like $10m and I simply don't have it. We have Elway, the 6th year guy we signed last offseason, ready to go - he's likely WR1 either way.

[QuikSand]

So - nice twist, as WR Floyd Cochrane returns on a 1yr, $4.8m deal (max bonus). It was the lowest offer he'd listen to, more or less. Knew I couldn't win in any sort of bidding war, but was hoping I'd get him without any other bidders.

That will squeeze our FA budget a bit, but at a thin position, a guy with decent remaining skills and monster cohesion is a huge move for us. Very pleased.

We also signed another returning WR Pete Garnes, to a minsal contract. Nothing special, just a WR4/5 type who is cheap and familiar enough to help. Hopefully he will just be an auto-renew type of guy until he cliff-dives to 11/11 one season (that's what tends to happen with guys like him).

[QuikSand]

Draft is underway, and I am all in on drafting for big apparent bars. It used to be this was the worst strategy, now I'm not so sure. My scouting staff is solid.

Here's what we have in hand, through three picks:

1.27 DT Myson Constant - 270lb DT, will move outside, scouted as mas PRTech, who knows?

2.27 CB Joseph Ursini - max bump bar, max ST, sold elsewhere, who knows?

3.28 DT Leslie Coffey - another undersized DT heading to the edge, hoping his pretty big PRTech bar (and PH bar) is legit and he's better than advertised

I'm mostly looking for BPA at this point... have a guy who was a 1A for round 3 who might slide to our pick in round 4 and that would be pleasant.

[Cap Ologist]

You took the qb I was hoping would fall to me in the 6th, jerk

[QuikSand]

Pretty happy with the back half of the draft thus far - even more so to see I pissed someone off.

4.27 RB Carlton Moschetti looks like a two-bar novelty act, but as those two bars happen to be hole recognition and breakaway speed, he might be the 80-400 guy we want from our RB2 slot

5.27 QB Earnest Nori is a combine skipper with a great 47 test score... and little else apparently going for him. Stab in the dark at this point is fine.

6.27 LB Van Blackwell is another combine skipper we hope is better than his measly scouted bars suggest... low hopes but a position where we could use cheap depth

[QuikSand]

Missed a couple of stages - real life and tech problems intervened. But the big news is that QB Upshaw has re-signed for three more years, pretty affordably. I don't think anyone else offered him a deal, but the continuity ought to help us out. I may not get game access for another day, so we'll see what happens.

[QuikSand]

Still limited access. My draft looks like garbage. No reason that should kill this season, but long term we will feel it.

DE Rudzinski is holding out and I will cut him - not paying a 10th year guy two more fat seasons. So, we will likely feel that right away - our pass rush is going to be super weak this season, I fear.

Regular season tomorrow. Maybe we're a 9 win team? Hopefully?

[QuikSand]

So, regular season in the books. Baltimore is once again an 11-5 division winner, and slotted as the 3rd seed. Major notes from below:

-We remain a top tier rushing team, with an efficient passing attack behind it (Rushing 2nd total/2nd ypc, Passing 18/5)

-QB Upshaw gives us his best season yet - 3379 yards, 7.28 ypa, 30/14, 92.6 rating

-RB Guerrieri is solid again - 2,106 on 5.48 ypc, but rookie Moschetti is disappointing with 114-482 and 4 fumbles

-Pass rush is back in the pack at 20.3 PR% (18th) - not good enough for my defense to work properly...nobody posts double digit sacks

-We are tough against the pass regardless, allowing only 5.67 ypa (best in the league)

-So we are a boa constrictor type of team - get a lead, grind it out, and try not to lose. If Upshaw were an 8-Int guy instead of a 14-int guy, we might be in a good groove. As it stands, we're a pretty good team a few clicks away (or a lucky winning streak) from actually winning this thing.

http://www.younglifenorthdekalb.com/...e.php?teamid=2

[QuikSand]

So...I have long believed that an effective (preferably VERY effective) pass rush is an essential element for my defense to work well. I'm starting to question that a bit. Our pass rush was definitely (and predictably) mediocre this season, but we remained very tough against the pass. I'm wondering if I might be able to experiment a bit, and start targeting some more run-stopper types along the front seven (especially on my teams that already have quality rushers). Hmmm.

[QuikSand]

Baltimore gets an opening win at home in the playoffs, but we lose a close game to Denver and are eliminated in the divisional round. The league title goes to AVAILABLE, piloting the mighty New England Patriots. They edge out the (2800 yard rusher) Barry Pullen powered Washington team in the title game.

[QuikSand]

2055 offseason begins

So, we hire a new Head Coach -- a guy who went 2-14 in Cleveland. Sounds awesome. I didn't have game access to get a file in, so not sure if that's at fault. The guy we got actually looks pretty solid, so i'm not going to flip out.

Philip Huie FOOL Staff Page

New Assistant HC as well, meh.

- - - - -

We start the offseason with 34 guys signed, and only one RFA - S Jessie Desai, who is looking to get PAID. With stalwart S Neil Sims retired and zero safeties on the roster at the moment, Desai might be a must-sign for us, even at $14m/yr or so. Ugh.

We have $66m or so in cap space - nearly 20% of the cap. Not enough to be a power player, but enough to land a few useful pieces. Roster needs as we sit right now are DL, WR, S, LB, and FB.

Interesting quandary ahead with CB Brendan Grubbs, a very solid cover man and a monster kick returner (31.3 KR avg, rating of 100) -- but he's going to want $20m or so a year after this season. He likely has real trade value, and I think I'm deep enough at DB to block him in search of a draft pick. I expect to do so soon, and we'll see.

[QuikSand]

Big free agency signing!

I put in a strong offer to target the #1 guy in the FA class, and was semi-surprised to land WR Harris Maxwell on a 3 year deal for a bit over $35m/yr. Yes, pricey, but I am very unhappy at the position, and it's brutally hard to fill from the late first round (assuming we remain competitive). So, we now have a build-around WR target, who likely becomes the offsetting centerpiece of the offense, after the RB1 Guerrieri. Glad to have that done, even if it does squeeze the rest of the budget a ton. Maxwell was a top tier 1,500 yard guy for three years before a holdout cost him last season (this league's quick setup is very unforgiving with holdouts).

I did have an offer in on DE Ruszinski, but he went to Cleveland for bigger money - the Browns are being unabashed in their pursuit of decent older veterans, piloted by the intrepid AVAILABLE who is always canny facing off against wide-eyed human rivals.

So, with a mere $30m left to fill in a lot of roster space, I expect mostly flotsam from here on in. I know I have said that before, but the math pretty much compels it from here. I have offers in on about 20 players, and nearly all of them are minsal offers to mediocre role-players -- either my own retreads or guys cast off from their original teams who look like they could contribute here. My bread and butter, generally.

[QuikSand]

Super quick updates:

-Spent first two picks on DBs, one may work out as a CB, the other may start at safety right away... neither look great, the 1st rounder may be a bust

-Landed a new MLB in free agency, but likely won't be able to re-sign S Desai - he turned down a $12m offer, I can't afford more than that, and he's noting all that special I don't think

-Later draft picks will be fill-ins, etc. Nothing to see here.

[QuikSand]

Later draft picks:
4.27 CB Wes Mayes - looks like my standard CB4/CB5 type, can play bump/zone, maybe special teamer
5.27 G Daquan Pritchett - possible run-first reserve-caliber interior lineman
6.27 K Dalton Heath - he's a kicker
7.27 LS Jeff Boshier - he's a long snapper

Thrilling, right?