WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

Passacaglia · 11-10-2008, 07:39 PM

Player List:

1. Hannibal Lecter -- Lynched Day 3, Wolf
2. The Jackal -- Lynched Day 2, Villager
3. RendeR -- Surviving Villager Loser
4. Barkeep49 -- Lynched Day 1, Villager
5. jeheinz72 -- Killed Night 1, Bodyguard
6. Alan T -- Lynched Day 5, Villager
7. Lathum -- Killed Night 2, Duke
8. path12 -- Surviving Wolf Winner
9. PackerFanatic -- Lynched Day 4, Villager
10. Danny -- Killed Night 3, Seer
11. hoopsguy -- Killed Night 4, Villager
12. Chief Rum -- Surviving Wolf Winner

Passacaglia · 11-10-2008, 07:40 PM

ules: Standard werewolf, with a day deadline of 9 PM Eastern time. Everyone must vote for someone they would like to see die. Failure to vote will result in an unspecified penalty that will increase with each offense. All votes must be for a player in the game (i.e. No votes of "No Lynch" are accepted), and must be in bold. The wolves must decide their night-kill strategy by 7 AM Eastern time.

Lately, there's been a movement against the use of random.org in games for various reasons. I agree with most of those reasons, but despite that, this game will use random.org liberally. I believe that this still offers several opportunities for strategic planning, but if you're against such randomness, then this game might not be for you.

Everyone votes on who they want to die, and one player will die as a result of the vote. However, that player will not necessarily be the one with the most votes. Instead, the number of votes for a player will represent the probability that he dies. For example, say there are 10 players in the game. 4 vote for Passacaglia, 3 vote for claphamsa, 2 vote for jeheinz72, and 1 votes for Alan T. Passacaglia has a 4/10 = 40% chance of dying, claphamsa has a 3/10 = 30% chance of dying, jeheinz72 has a 2/10 = 20% chance of dying, and Alan T has a 1/10 = 10% chance of dying.

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The bodyguard may protect one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being protected that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%, and the bodyguard himself cannot have a percentage greater than 20%. You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions). If you protect someone successfully, the wolves will know who you protected (i.e. who they tried to kill).

The seer may find the allegiance of one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being viewed that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

The duke may choose a different set of probabilities for the lynch vote one day during the game. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being lynched that day. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%. The duke himself must have a percentage of at least 10%. The duke's identity will be revealed when this happens.

The game ends with a villager victory if all the wolves are killed, and a wolf victory if the number of villagers is less than the number of wolves.

Hannibal Lecter · 11-10-2008, 08:06 PM

I am willing to partake. I am still waiting for my Seemab Naan.

The Jackal · 11-10-2008, 08:17 PM

Count me in.

RendeR · 11-10-2008, 08:24 PM

I fear rejoining means I die on night 1 =)

in of course.

The Jackal · 11-10-2008, 08:37 PM

You may as well copy and paste the rules in that second post, we certainly remember them but people are pretty lazy.

Barkeep49 · 11-11-2008, 09:38 AM

I will play again. Hopefully we can get a nice big crowd and see how the game would play out writ large.

jeheinz72 · 11-11-2008, 11:22 AM

Thank you sir may I have another!

Alan T · 11-11-2008, 11:42 AM

I'll play. I can't promise that I'll be able to be here that much because things are pretty busy for me right now (but some might prefer me that way anyways).

Mainly playing though because I feel bad that everyone else is taking WW vacation at the same time I need it and I don't want to see the games struggle to get people. So I'll do my best to keep up.

Lathum · 11-11-2008, 11:53 AM

path12 · 11-11-2008, 01:07 PM

PackerFanatic · 11-11-2008, 02:08 PM

Ah what the hell - in.

Danny · 11-11-2008, 02:37 PM

Will this be starting next week? I have my last big presentation on Thursday and for the most part have pretty clear sailing until the end of semester with the exception of some weekly written assignments. So, I should be able to play if it starts next week.

Hannibal Lecter · 11-11-2008, 09:31 PM

Danny my good studious fellow! It certainly wont start before Thursday, since we all need a day to prepare, and Monday is highly likely as a target start date, I feel it would serve you well to play in any case!

hoopsguy · 11-11-2008, 09:43 PM

I'll give this a shot, although I'm not sure how much time I'll have next week.

Chief Rum · 11-12-2008, 01:52 AM

Will this end before Thanksgiving? If so, I am in.

Passacaglia · 11-12-2008, 07:56 AM

We might as well do a Monday start, which should still end the game before Thanksgiving.

Alan T · 11-12-2008, 08:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We might as well do a Monday start, which should still end the game before Thanksgiving.

Ok, well with a Monday start, I'll only have 2 days before I go out of town and that cuts down my participation even more.. but what the heck, I'll still play.

Passacaglia · 11-16-2008, 10:30 PM

Roles have been sent out. Day 1 ends Monday, 9 PM Eastern.

Barkeep49 · 11-16-2008, 10:51 PM

I do not have a role this time.

The Jackal · 11-16-2008, 11:24 PM

Ditto.

Lathum · 11-16-2008, 11:34 PM

I'm the duke and plan on killing hoops

Chief Rum · 11-17-2008, 12:00 AM

El vilagerino checking in. I totally just made that word up.

Interesting rule set. I think it's going to make it damn hard to make anything stick on anyone, though.

I am working my two jobs, as usual on Mondays, so I will have to consider carefully on whom I will leave my vote before I leave for work tomorrow.

hoopsguy · 11-17-2008, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm the duke and plan on killing hoops

Bummer - you'll be cleared by killing a villager.

hoopsguy · 11-17-2008, 08:03 AM

What do people think about the full reveal option again? We do not have that many more people than last time - does it still make sense? I haven't run any scenarios in my head on this yet, but figured it was a question worth asking.

12 players - 3 or 4 wolves, given the ruleset? I'm guessing 3, but maybe with a brutal or something like that.

I'm not sure how my day/week will stack up in terms of availability for discussion. I do know that I won't have as much time as I have in many previous games, but will try to pull my weight in terms of participation.

Passacaglia · 11-17-2008, 08:10 AM

Just a reminder that I can read the board and PMs from work, but can't reply, so if you have questions, either email me at agage1 AT gmail DOT com, or put your email address in your PM to me.

Alan T · 11-17-2008, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What do people think about the full reveal option again? We do not have that many more people than last time - does it still make sense? I haven't run any scenarios in my head on this yet, but figured it was a question worth asking.

12 players - 3 or 4 wolves, given the ruleset? I'm guessing 3, but maybe with a brutal or something like that.

I'm not sure how my day/week will stack up in terms of availability for discussion. I do know that I won't have as much time as I have in many previous games, but will try to pull my weight in terms of participation.

What was the game balance in the last one of these? Seer/bodyguard/duke for good guys, 3 wolves with a double kill ability for the wolves? How many players?

I have no role myself this game, and as mentioned I'll probably be here an ok amount today and tommorrow.. but after that my availability will be sketchy as I travel.

Chief Rum · 11-17-2008, 08:48 AM

Hmm, I don't recall being in a full reveal game, so I can't speak to the wisdom of that. But then I am role-less in this one, so I guess it foesn;t cost me much to say that. I'll leave arguments for or nay to those who do have roles.

I need to put in a vote now, since I am leaving for the day. So I went with random,org.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

Sorry PF. Obviously, anyone looking to build a vote around my initial vote should be viewed with suspicion, as I have no reason for this vote except that's who came up. I hope there is more to go on tonight for my vote tomorrow.

PackerFanatic · 11-17-2008, 08:58 AM

Almost forgot about this game until I got my PM!

I am a non-roled villager.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

And I would more than love to switch to someone worthwhile, but right now I have to defend myself

Hannibal Lecter · 11-17-2008, 09:21 AM

Oh welcome good freinds! I just checked in, need to allow this account to send me email notifications. I am just a villager, but I have found an excellent recipe for Wolf Goulash. Would you all care to join me this evening?

jeheinz72 · 11-17-2008, 09:50 AM

Checking in again, as a villager (for reals this time).

As far as a full-reveal, I think it could work. I knew it really pooped in our stew last game to have to deal with it, and frankly it took a lucky turn and some nice play by RendeR to eek out that W.

With 12 players, I wouldn't rule out 4 wolves. If nothing else but because of the whole thing where the wolves actually have to out-number the village instead of 1:1.

Also, we actually didn't have a double-kill ability last game. That was a makeup call by our GM because our night orders got mixed up the previous day (so he basically killed who should've died on Night One, on Night Two)

PackerFanatic · 11-17-2008, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Also, we actually didn't have a double-kill ability last game. That was a makeup call by our GM because our night orders got mixed up the previous day (so he basically killed who should've died on Night One, on Night Two)

After no NK the first night, I figured that was the case.

RendeR · 11-17-2008, 10:28 AM

Villager this time, no fun for RendeR

Danny · 11-17-2008, 10:48 AM

Checking in

My schedule is about the same as it was for Hoopsguy Apocalypse game.

I get home from work about 3pm pacific time today and then about 2:30pm or so Wed/Fri and on Tue/Thu I only have about an hour after work before I leave for class.

The Jackal · 11-17-2008, 01:18 PM

I see no reason to not do a full reveal, but then again I'm just vanilla. Up to the important people, I'd suppose.

jeheinz72 · 11-17-2008, 01:21 PM

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)

Hannibal Lecter · 11-17-2008, 01:28 PM

Well at least we are talking now.

path12 · 11-17-2008, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

What was the game balance in the last one of these? Seer/bodyguard/duke for good guys, 3 wolves with a double kill ability for the wolves? How many players?

Checking in. I believe that was the balance last time, I think we only had 9 for that game so three more this time?

Alan T · 11-17-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)

Isn't a full reveal about increasing the odds of getting a wolf, while also increasing the chance of the bodyguard keeping the important role(s) safe?

No one ever answered my questions about what the setup was last time, so I can't really give a comparison to last game unless someone wants to help me out with that info.

numberswise though in a game of 9 players, 3 good roles and 2 wolves and no information on who is who..if you are a non-rolled villager you end up with a 1 in 4 (25%) chance of getting a wolf, a 37.5% chance of hitting a good role and a 37.5% chance of hitting another non-rolled villager.

If you are a villager with a role, but don't know who the other rolled villagers are, in the same 9 player game the percentages change to: 25% chance of getting a wolf, 25% chance of hitting another rolled villager and a 50% chance of hitting a villager without a role.

Now in this hypothetical 9 person game, if all of the roles were revealed, you would know who the three good guys are theoretically (barring fake reveals which likely would blow up in the wolves face anyways).. so that changes the same percentages again. If you were a non-rolled villager and know who the three villager roles are, you would have a 40% chance of hitting a wolf, 0% chance of hitting a good villager role, and a 60% chance of hitting a non-rolled villager.

-------------------------------------

So now since this game has 12 players, if we assume there are 3 rolled good guys and either 3 or 4 wolves, we can have the following stats:

3 wolves, no reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 45%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 27%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 55%

3 wolves with reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 43%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 57%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 38%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 63%

4 wolves, no reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 27%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 36%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 36%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 18%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 45%

4 wolves with reveal:

Chance for a non-rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 57%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick a roled villager: 0%
Chance for a non-rolled villager to accidentally pick another non-rolled villager: 43%

Chance for a rolled villager to guess correctly on a wolf: 50%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick another rolled villager: 0%
Chance for a rolled villager to accidentally pick a non-rolled villager: 50%

Alan T · 11-17-2008, 01:46 PM

I did most of that math on the fly real quick.. so if any of it is incorrect, I am sure someone will likely correct me.. but looking at it, if people who are assuming there are 4 wolves this time are correct.. that means with a full reveal, we have a better chance of hitting a wolf than not hitting a wolf today. Since this game is all about percentages, trying to find the highest probability does seem in our best interest.

I have very little to lose from a full reveal as I am just a villager, and I have the most to gain from a reveal as well.. but I think the math adds up that it is in our favor.

path12 · 11-17-2008, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well I guess the main questions would be

A) Was it beneficial last time (I think yes)
B) What could the wolves have done differently last time than what we did (I don't really think so, but if there are 4 of them, then maybe)
C) Does more players hamper it's effectiveness (possibly)

I would agree that it was beneficial last time. I would also agree that more players likely could hamper the effectiveness somewhat just based on the format.

I'd like to know more about B. IIRC you claimed a role last time and that's how you got caught, right? Why did you do that? I guess what I don't understand is why a wolf would claim a role in this situation.

Alan T · 11-17-2008, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I would agree that it was beneficial last time. I would also agree that more players likely could hamper the effectiveness somewhat just based on the format.

With more players, the reveal is only less effective if there are the same number of wolves as your percentages go down.

I am not sold on the idea that there are four wolves this game, that feels like overboard a bit to me. I think what someone else mentioned that an additional wolf brutal role or something being added would be the balance for 3 additional players.

Either way though, the question isn't whether or not the full reveal would be more effective this game than last game. The question is would the full reveal be more effective than no full reveal this game? The math suggests that even if there are still only 3 wolves this game, you still give more than half of us an almost 50/50 shot at guessing a wolf this game with a full reveal plus the added benefit of not accidentally killing off the seer or bodyguard due to bad luck with random numbers.

hoopsguy · 11-17-2008, 01:57 PM

Short version with reveals = no chance of lynching a roled player. Roled players can act optimally with their powers (don't end up scanning roled player, unless they want to validate claim, better chance of scanning a wolf as a by-product).

Downside = wolves know who to go after with their actions, although the % chance is only 40% that they get their target. But with 3 revealed players, they are going to get one of the roled players on N1 and have an 80% chance of getting a roled player on N2.

Lathum · 11-17-2008, 01:58 PM

So what do you all think about the voting today?

Do we try and narrow things down or spread them out, the randomness makes it a little different then usual.

hoopsguy · 11-17-2008, 01:59 PM

Also, if Lathum's initial post is to be trusted we have already had one player reveal their role. If someone else is the Duke they would likely Duke him today, thus removing the importance of our vote.

Assuming Lathum goes unchallenged as the Duke, I would like to find out if he really does intend to Duke me to prove his role. If he does, I would suggest that the rest of you just go ahead and vote for me, allowing him to keep his Duke power for a day where he might actually benefit the village. I guess I'm saying I would rather be voted out, while keeping a power in play for the villagers, than have him clear himself voting me out and thus burn the power and a villager in one fell swoop.

hoopsguy · 11-17-2008, 02:00 PM

Speak of the devil ...

Lathum, were you serious about being the Duke and are you planning to snuff me with it? If not, I'm not going to waste a lot more time arguing for/against something that may have been a joke post.

jeheinz72 · 11-17-2008, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I'd like to know more about B. IIRC you claimed a role last time and that's how you got caught, right? Why did you do that? I guess what I don't understand is why a wolf would claim a role in this situation.

Well basically it was just to increase odds. Last game there were 9 players - 3 wolves, 3 villagers, 3 rolled-villagers.

If we all had told the truth, we would've had a bucket of the 3 roled players (all instantly cleared) and 6 non-rolled players (which would be half us, half non-rolled villagers)

Basically we decided that giving the village such a clear roadmap was a bad idea, so I'd shake it up and at least make it a 4/5 split making neither group "certain". It's funny, the village actually voted into the group that had the lower odds of getting a wolf with the biggest risk (1 out of 4 with a miss lynching a roled player rather than 2 out of 5 with a miss lynching a vanilla)

I guess by B I wondered if there was some other way that it could be looked at by the wolves to be a more beneficial situation for them. I don't tend to think so but I admittedly haven't thought too much on it after getting lynched

jeheinz72 · 11-17-2008, 02:22 PM

That's the catch with Alan's math, those numbers I believe all pertain as if the wolves opt to not throw a red herring. Which they may not do and gets to where the # of people matters. Before the options were 4/5 or 3/6, here it'd be 3/9 or 4/8.

Looking at the cases then

A) 3 wolves, no herring

3 cleared rolled villagers vs 9 non-rolled, comprised of a 6/3 split (villagers/wolves)

B) 4 wolves, no herring

3 cleared rolled villagers vs 9 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/4 split

C) 3 wolves, herring

A group of 3/1 (roled/wolves) vs 8 non-rolled, comprised of a 6/2 split

D) 4 wolves, herring

A group of 3/1 (roled/wolves) vs 8 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/3 split

E) 4 wolves, double-herring

A group of 3/2 (roled/wolves) vs 7 non-rolled, comprised of a 5/2 split

jeheinz72 · 11-17-2008, 02:26 PM

I'd surmise that they would indeed throw a fake-role-reveal into the mix, given that I think in either overall case (3 or 4 wolves) they're better off of they do. But that could be my blinders on from the decision I made last game.

If there are 4 wolves though, I think the wolves would be pretty foolish to just let us reveal and not throw a fake in.

With 3, it's a little tighter, mainly because with 3 wolves they can less afford to sacrifice a wolf

But, I'm still open to the idea even with that. Looking at last game, it was basically a coin-flip. The village had the game at the end, and still had a shot to win even with the 66/33 split on the final roll of the dice.

Lathum · 11-17-2008, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Speak of the devil ...

Lathum, were you serious about being the Duke and are you planning to snuff me with it? If not, I'm not going to waste a lot more time arguing for/against something that may have been a joke post.

I was gonna duke to you but have since changed my mind.

11-10-2008, 07:40 PM	#2
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	ules: Standard werewolf, with a day deadline of 9 PM Eastern time. Everyone must vote for someone they would like to see die. Failure to vote will result in an unspecified penalty that will increase with each offense. All votes must be for a player in the game (i.e. No votes of "No Lynch" are accepted), and must be in bold. The wolves must decide their night-kill strategy by 7 AM Eastern time. Lately, there's been a movement against the use of random.org in games for various reasons. I agree with most of those reasons, but despite that, this game will use random.org liberally. I believe that this still offers several opportunities for strategic planning, but if you're against such randomness, then this game might not be for you. Everyone votes on who they want to die, and one player will die as a result of the vote. However, that player will not necessarily be the one with the most votes. Instead, the number of votes for a player will represent the probability that he dies. For example, say there are 10 players in the game. 4 vote for Passacaglia, 3 vote for claphamsa, 2 vote for jeheinz72, and 1 votes for Alan T. Passacaglia has a 4/10 = 40% chance of dying, claphamsa has a 3/10 = 30% chance of dying, jeheinz72 has a 2/10 = 20% chance of dying, and Alan T has a 1/10 = 10% chance of dying. The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame). The bodyguard may protect one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being protected that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%, and the bodyguard himself cannot have a percentage greater than 20%. You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions). If you protect someone successfully, the wolves will know who you protected (i.e. who they tried to kill). The seer may find the allegiance of one player per night. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being viewed that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame). The duke may choose a different set of probabilities for the lynch vote one day during the game. He or she will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of being lynched that day. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40%. The duke himself must have a percentage of at least 10%. The duke's identity will be revealed when this happens. The game ends with a villager victory if all the wolves are killed, and a wolf victory if the number of villagers is less than the number of wolves. Last edited by Passacaglia : 11-12-2008 at 07:56 AM.

11-11-2008, 11:42 AM	#9
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I'll play. I can't promise that I'll be able to be here that much because things are pretty busy for me right now (but some might prefer me that way anyways). Mainly playing though because I feel bad that everyone else is taking WW vacation at the same time I need it and I don't want to see the games struggle to get people. So I'll do my best to keep up. __________________ Couch to ??k - From the couch to a Marathon in roughly 18 months.

11-11-2008, 01:07 PM	#11
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	In __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

11-11-2008, 02:08 PM	#12
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Ah what the hell - in. __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-12-2008, 01:52 AM	#16
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Will this end before Thanksgiving? If so, I am in. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

11-10-2008, 08:06 PM	#3
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	I am willing to partake. I am still waiting for my Seemab Naan.

11-10-2008, 08:17 PM	#4
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Count me in.

11-10-2008, 08:24 PM	#5
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	I fear rejoining means I die on night 1 =) in of course.

11-10-2008, 08:37 PM	#6
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	You may as well copy and paste the rules in that second post, we certainly remember them but people are pretty lazy.

11-11-2008, 09:38 AM	#7
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I will play again. Hopefully we can get a nice big crowd and see how the game would play out writ large.

11-11-2008, 11:53 AM	#10
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	in

11-11-2008, 02:37 PM	#13
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Will this be starting next week? I have my last big presentation on Thursday and for the most part have pretty clear sailing until the end of semester with the exception of some weekly written assignments. So, I should be able to play if it starts next week.

11-11-2008, 09:31 PM	#14
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	Danny my good studious fellow! It certainly wont start before Thursday, since we all need a day to prepare, and Monday is highly likely as a target start date, I feel it would serve you well to play in any case!

11-11-2008, 09:43 PM	#15
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'll give this a shot, although I'm not sure how much time I'll have next week.

11-12-2008, 07:56 AM	#17
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	We might as well do a Monday start, which should still end the game before Thanksgiving.

11-16-2008, 10:30 PM	#19
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Roles have been sent out. Day 1 ends Monday, 9 PM Eastern.

11-16-2008, 10:51 PM	#20
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I do not have a role this time.

11-16-2008, 11:24 PM	#21
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Ditto.

11-16-2008, 11:34 PM	#22
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I'm the duke and plan on killing hoops

11-17-2008, 12:00 AM	#23
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	El vilagerino checking in. I totally just made that word up. Interesting rule set. I think it's going to make it damn hard to make anything stick on anyone, though. I am working my two jobs, as usual on Mondays, so I will have to consider carefully on whom I will leave my vote before I leave for work tomorrow. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

11-17-2008, 08:03 AM	#25
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	What do people think about the full reveal option again? We do not have that many more people than last time - does it still make sense? I haven't run any scenarios in my head on this yet, but figured it was a question worth asking. 12 players - 3 or 4 wolves, given the ruleset? I'm guessing 3, but maybe with a brutal or something like that. I'm not sure how my day/week will stack up in terms of availability for discussion. I do know that I won't have as much time as I have in many previous games, but will try to pull my weight in terms of participation.

11-17-2008, 08:10 AM	#26
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Just a reminder that I can read the board and PMs from work, but can't reply, so if you have questions, either email me at agage1 AT gmail DOT com, or put your email address in your PM to me.

11-17-2008, 08:48 AM	#28
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Hmm, I don't recall being in a full reveal game, so I can't speak to the wisdom of that. But then I am role-less in this one, so I guess it foesn;t cost me much to say that. I'll leave arguments for or nay to those who do have roles. I need to put in a vote now, since I am leaving for the day. So I went with random,org. VOTE PACKERFANATIC Sorry PF. Obviously, anyone looking to build a vote around my initial vote should be viewed with suspicion, as I have no reason for this vote except that's who came up. I hope there is more to go on tonight for my vote tomorrow. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

11-17-2008, 08:58 AM	#29
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Almost forgot about this game until I got my PM! I am a non-roled villager. VOTE CHIEF RUM And I would more than love to switch to someone worthwhile, but right now I have to defend myself __________________ Commissioner of the RNFL

11-17-2008, 09:21 AM	#30
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	Oh welcome good freinds! I just checked in, need to allow this account to send me email notifications. I am just a villager, but I have found an excellent recipe for Wolf Goulash. Would you all care to join me this evening?

11-17-2008, 10:28 AM	#33
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	Villager this time, no fun for RendeR __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

11-17-2008, 10:48 AM	#34
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Checking in My schedule is about the same as it was for Hoopsguy Apocalypse game. I get home from work about 3pm pacific time today and then about 2:30pm or so Wed/Fri and on Tue/Thu I only have about an hour after work before I leave for class.

11-17-2008, 01:18 PM	#35
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I see no reason to not do a full reveal, but then again I'm just vanilla. Up to the important people, I'd suppose.

11-17-2008, 01:28 PM	#37
Hannibal Lecter High School JV Join Date: Oct 2008	Well at least we are talking now.

11-17-2008, 01:46 PM	#40
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I did most of that math on the fly real quick.. so if any of it is incorrect, I am sure someone will likely correct me.. but looking at it, if people who are assuming there are 4 wolves this time are correct.. that means with a full reveal, we have a better chance of hitting a wolf than not hitting a wolf today. Since this game is all about percentages, trying to find the highest probability does seem in our best interest. I have very little to lose from a full reveal as I am just a villager, and I have the most to gain from a reveal as well.. but I think the math adds up that it is in our favor. __________________ Couch to ??k - From the couch to a Marathon in roughly 18 months.

11-17-2008, 01:57 PM	#43
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Short version with reveals = no chance of lynching a roled player. Roled players can act optimally with their powers (don't end up scanning roled player, unless they want to validate claim, better chance of scanning a wolf as a by-product). Downside = wolves know who to go after with their actions, although the % chance is only 40% that they get their target. But with 3 revealed players, they are going to get one of the roled players on N1 and have an 80% chance of getting a roled player on N2.

11-17-2008, 01:58 PM	#44
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	So what do you all think about the voting today? Do we try and narrow things down or spread them out, the randomness makes it a little different then usual.

11-17-2008, 01:59 PM	#45
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Also, if Lathum's initial post is to be trusted we have already had one player reveal their role. If someone else is the Duke they would likely Duke him today, thus removing the importance of our vote. Assuming Lathum goes unchallenged as the Duke, I would like to find out if he really does intend to Duke me to prove his role. If he does, I would suggest that the rest of you just go ahead and vote for me, allowing him to keep his Duke power for a day where he might actually benefit the village. I guess I'm saying I would rather be voted out, while keeping a power in play for the villagers, than have him clear himself voting me out and thus burn the power and a villager in one fell swoop.

11-17-2008, 02:00 PM	#46
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Speak of the devil ... Lathum, were you serious about being the Duke and are you planning to snuff me with it? If not, I'm not going to waste a lot more time arguing for/against something that may have been a joke post.

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