Official 2021 College Football thread

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Somewhat surprised that the Big 12 did so well without having Oklahoma or Texas in their championship game.

It was on first and was the first domino to fall. Almost all of the "Here's how [X] can make the playoffs" hypotheticals started with OSU losing as the first domino.

[Vegas Vic]

Interesting. I wasn't aware how much Lincoln Riley's offense had regressed over the past three seasons. It will be interesting to see what kind of numbers Jeff Lebby is able to put up there.

Jeff Lebby’s Offenses the last 3 years:
2021- 5th (495 YPG)
2020- 3rd (556 YPG)
2019- 3rd (529 YPG)
Lincoln Riley’s Offenses the last 3 years:
2021- 40th (426 YPG)
2020- 13th (483 YPG)
2019- 4th (523 YPG)

����‍♂️ #Sooners

— Clint Maxey (@cbmax36) December 8, 2021

[Swaggs]

I really don't like it when politicians are petty, but I can get behind it when it is in the name of college sports: Oklahoma legislator proposes 'Lincoln Riley Highway'

Oklahoma state senator Bill Coleman reacted to Riley's exit by requesting legislation that will turn 3 inches of the westbound lane on Oklahoma's State Highway 325 into the "Lincoln Riley Highway" as a way to "properly honor" the coach.

Coleman described the stretch as "the tiniest section of our most desolate of highways."

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by tarcone

This may be the last nail in the coffin

What am I talking about? The fact that Alabama is 1 and Michigan is 2.

The last 2 weeks of the season, Alabama squeaked by an average Auburn team and Georgia.

In those 2 weeks, Michign balsted #2 tOSU and #13 Iowa who was #2 at one point.

Alabama lost to an average aTm and Michigan to a top10 MSU squad.

What a joke. The B1G, PAC12, ACC will start flexing their muscle and leave or re-shape the NCAA away from the SEC

Does it matter? College football has never had a real championship. Teams have been claiming national championships based on obscure polls and computer rankings for the last 100 years. Some were crowned before bowl games. Some were split. Some schools decided they had won one 50+ years later. And we know voters of these likely never saw most of these teams play (just as I'm sure the committee doesn't watch all the games).

Point is that it's just a beauty contest and exhibition to have fun with. Just enjoy it for what it is.

[Solecismic]

Given the distribution of NFL-caliber future talent, the SEC is going to field the best players. Add coaches who know what they're doing (and Saban certainly does - his "failure" in the NFL was more frustration in an ownership that refused to give him the players he wanted) and you have the top conference.

That's just the way it is. The ACC doesn't win as many recruiting battles these days, so the schools in the middle of top-recruiting country (Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech) aren't quite as good these days. Clemson has built a nice brand, and South Carolina has suffered in recent years.

The ACC also hasn't done a good job getting the television deals done. That's certainly reflected in the ratings and payouts. They can fix this, even though they will continue to lose recruiting battles. These are large universities with the resources to compete. It's not like the MAC in Big Ten country.

There are a few schools that can get into the recruiting conversation nationally (Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame among them) and California has its own talent pool, so the Pac-12 powers are sometimes good, though Oregon's top talent isn't exactly west coast in origin. There's enough talent around the country that good coaches at the other major schools can build something.

The rankings are more a beauty pageant than anything else. The four teams invited to the playoffs earned the best scores for the pageant. We accept that because a scoring system was created that makes some sense.

A true playoff system with a 12-game schedule that we accept as a fair playoff system would need to invite a lot more teams. We'd need a different criteria for "deserving," more like the NFL one. Though not quite as weird as the one that considers the 6-6 WFT a potential playoff powerhouse.

[RainMaker]

I'd disagree on Saban and the NFL. There's a massive gap in coaching competency and he just wasn't cut out for the big leagues. Talent levels between teams are much closer, so are resources put into the team, and your coaching counterparts are much more skilled. We recently saw Joe Brady carve up SEC defenses in college and fall flat on his face in the NFL.

The best way I've seen it described is college football is more like the Oscars or Grammys. Your body of work matters, but there is no set metric to decide who gets nominated. The people deciding haven't seen every single movie that came out that year just as the committee hasn't watched every single college game. Marketing, prestige, and other factors play a role.

I think people get too worked up about both awards shows and the rankings/bowl system. It's just something fun to watch and debate.

[Solecismic]

Nice to see Iowa win a national recruiting battle for an in-state five-star DB.

Saban went 15-17 with Gus Frerotte (at age 34), Sage Rosenfels, Joey Harrington (in perhaps his best season), Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon at quarterback. He wanted Drew Brees. Drew Brees wanted to be in Miami. The narrative that Saban felt he wasn't supported is understandable.

They went 1-15 after Saban left and have had a winning record only three times since. I think the jury is out on whether Saban can coach at the NFL level. Not that the same skill set is necessary.

[tarcone]

I am excited. #1 safety in the nation. What a get. What is even better he is an in-state 5* recruit that stayed home. Love it.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Saban went 15-17 with Gus Frerotte (at age 34), Sage Rosenfels, Joey Harrington (in perhaps his best season), Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon at quarterback. He wanted Drew Brees. Drew Brees wanted to be in Miami. The narrative that Saban felt he wasn't supported is understandable.

They went 1-15 after Saban left and have had a winning record only three times since. I think the jury is out on whether Saban can coach at the NFL level. Not that the same skill set is necessary.

Saban also had a really talented defense. And he did have control over personnel. He made the decision to take Ronnie Brown with the #2 pick instead of Aaron Rodgers (who he scouted heavily). He chose to trade a high 2nd round pick for Culpepper.

Brees has always been an excuse in hindsight. At the time, he wasn't a star and there is no guarantee that he would have evolved into a Hall of Famer in Saban's offense. I'd say Sean Payton played a large role in transforming Brees and was light years ahead of anything the Dolphins were scheming up back in the day.

He was outclassed at the NFL level and he left in part because the players on the team despised him. Numerous accounts of players who almost got into physical confrontations. Dealing with 19-year-olds who you can dangle a scholarship over their head is considerably easier than professionals.

I'm sure if you gave him a Hall of Fame QB and the talent advantage he has in every game at Alabama, he would have been a success in the NFL. But so would a lot of coaches. As I said, great college coach, just not good enough to cut it in the big leagues.

[Solecismic]

There are many coaches in the NFL who missed on Rodgers. That was some draft - had to feel bad for him, but he held up well. Would Rodgers have been as good if he didn't have that long apprenticeship under Favre? The Dolphins needed a quarterback, at that time, period.

If one is to blame Saban for the offensive issues, he should get credit for the defense, which was better under his leadership. A lot gets written about NFL players chafing under coaches who have rules better suited to college. But NFL players have to digest very complex game plans and have little time to chafe during the season.

Basically, if you're winning, you're happy and if you're losing, you gripe about dumb rules. Tom Coughlin comes to mind - a genius when winning two Super Bowls, but the subject of countless stories about overly-pedantic rules his last two seasons when the Giants were bad. Bill Belichick's "Patriot Way" would quickly lose its charm if he didn't win like no one has ever won before.

Obviously, Saban has his narrative and others have theirs. I can't say I believe either one in full, but given his success in Alabama, I don't see his rationale for lying about his reasons for leaving. Even before his book came out, others wrote about the Brees issue in the same way.

[Vegas Vic]

I couldn't help but notice that Jim's last 13 posts on FOFC have been in the college football thread. He sold the FOF code, but as far as I know, he did not sell the TCY code. That can only mean one thing. TCY 2 will be coming out sometime in the future! I, for one, would shell out some big bucks if that comes to fruition!

[Solecismic]

Thank you for your enthusiasm. I'm sorry, but there won't be a TCY2. I am old and not the healthiest person in the world (too many years of sitting on my ass in front of a computer). I am working as hard as I can, though, and I hope what I'm working on will be of interest when the time comes that I can talk about it (which is a long time from now). I know it won't appeal to everyone here, however.

My sudden interest in college football comes from something really exciting that happened a week ago last Saturday. I worry that it will decline again in 22 days. Thinking about TCY... is there anything I could salvage from that code? Modern recruiting and NIL, player portals, coach portals, the dependence on mobile quarterbacks and options. I think colleges have invented 93 new academic majors as well, plus grade inflation - I'd have to completely redo the academic model. Many people think FOF8 is dated (and ugly), take a look at TCY.

[tzach]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There are many coaches in the NFL who missed on Rodgers. That was some draft - had to feel bad for him, but he held up well. Would Rodgers have been as good if he didn't have that long apprenticeship under Favre? The Dolphins needed a quarterback, at that time, period.

If one is to blame Saban for the offensive issues, he should get credit for the defense, which was better under his leadership. A lot gets written about NFL players chafing under coaches who have rules better suited to college. But NFL players have to digest very complex game plans and have little time to chafe during the season.

Basically, if you're winning, you're happy and if you're losing, you gripe about dumb rules.

to me the distribution of talent within the nfl seems to be so narrow (with a few outliers forming a long tail) that i always wonder if we observe mostly random outcomes for most teams in a 16-17 game season and try to make sense of them.

and then there's the added effect of path dependence, which has to play a major role on an individual level (meaning that player evolution would not be memoryless).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Thinking about TCY... is there anything I could salvage from that code? Modern recruiting and NIL, player portals, coach portals, the dependence on mobile quarterbacks and options. I think colleges have invented 93 new academic majors as well, plus grade inflation - I'd have to completely redo the academic model. Many people think FOF8 is dated (and ugly), take a look at TCY.

Well ... NIL is probably already covered by things like Prestige and Playing Time factors so that IMO it probably abstracts well enough to not have to be separated at least.

Ya got 99 Problems but that bitch ain't one

(sorry, just thinking aloud here)

[tzach]

in college football, the distribution of talent seems to be much broader, concentrated in a dozen teams or so, and this is relatively stable over time (meaning that e.g. alabama will almost certainly not suck next season). so my point is that it would be a lot easier for a top coach to do pretty well in college, specially if you benefit from top talent. i don't think one can get a similar talent differential in the nfl.


i still think that saban is pretty good though hehe

[HomerSimpson98]

So the Quinn Ewers to Texas thing is going to make us purists all hate the NIL stuff if true and when it comes out. Just ridiculous the rumors going around.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

As I said, great college coach, just not good enough to cut it in the big leagues.

I am not sure which qualities you think he is missing in order to be a good pro coach. Most of the college coaches that come and fail are used car salesmen that either can't adjust their strategies or fail to adjust to the talent. I dont think work ethic, strategy, or personality would really be an issue with Saban. I think his NFL career would have mirrored his good friend Belichick to a lesser degree.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I am not sure which qualities you think he is missing in order to be a good pro coach. Most of the college coaches that come and fail are used car salesmen that either can't adjust their strategies or fail to adjust to the talent. I dont think work ethic, strategy, or personality would really be an issue with Saban. I think his NFL career would have mirrored his good friend Belichick to a lesser degree.

If he had stuck with it, I agree. There is a learning curve in the transition and Saban would have gotten it. It might not have been with the Dolphins though.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I am not sure which qualities you think he is missing in order to be a good pro coach. Most of the college coaches that come and fail are used car salesmen that either can't adjust their strategies or fail to adjust to the talent. I dont think work ethic, strategy, or personality would really be an issue with Saban. I think his NFL career would have mirrored his good friend Belichick to a lesser degree.

We saw him as an NFL head coach. We don't have to guess how he would fare at that level.

By the end of his run, the team had no direction, had quit on him, and multiple players wanted to fight him. I think it's a stretch to think he would have figured things out the next year considering the direction the franchise was going under him.

Nick Saban is a great college coach who has won a lot of games where he has a colossal talent advantage over his competition. There is nothing wrong with that. He'll have a statue outside the stadium and be hailed as one of the greatest in the game. But the NFL is a different world and some just aren't cut out for it.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

We don't have to guess how he would fare at that level.

But the NFL is a different world and some just aren't cut out for it.

Ummm, ok!

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

We saw him as an NFL head coach. We don't have to guess how he would fare at that level.

By the end of his run, the team had no direction, had quit on him, and multiple players wanted to fight him. I think it's a stretch to think he would have figured things out the next year considering the direction the franchise was going under him.

Nick Saban is a great college coach who has won a lot of games where he has a colossal talent advantage over his competition. There is nothing wrong with that. He'll have a statue outside the stadium and be hailed as one of the greatest in the game. But the NFL is a different world and some just aren't cut out for it.

You have made your decision based on 1 completed season. Which is your own opinion.

I think the general consensus is that is takes awhile to get your scheme and culture into place. 1+ years usually isnt enough time for you to clean out the previous culture.

Do you not think if Saban declared himself a free agent head coach that he wouldnt get the largest contract in NFL history?

[Brian Swartz]

A lot of coaches have failed at one job in the NFL and succeeded at another. People change, and also being a winner in one situation can sometimes just mean you managed not to screw up what you had going for you.

I think both perspectives on Saban are partially right, but also incomplete. Prior to his last year at Michigan State, Saban was 25-22-1, having never won more than 7 games there. Did that mean he was a mediocre college coach? Did going 9-2 the next year suddenly make him better? Was he that much better a coach at LSU when he won a title there, or was he just in a better situation?

I think in general head coaches have a big impact, but there's a lot of luck involved as well, and wisdom in taking on the right situation at the time. It's way more complicated, even in college, than good coach = winning team.

[Solecismic]

I had to look that one up. Unless I'm missing something, 15 years later, it finally comes out that two extremely good athletes wanted to beat up their 54-year-old coach. Nothing against Jay Glazer, but that seems more like the result of a game of telephone more than a fact. And if fact, cooler heads prevailed (it's not like Saban ran screaming from the building and never returned to Miami). Players and coaches sometimes get heated, but it doesn't wind up with punches.

I can understand Culpepper being unhappy. He never recovered from the knee injury that essentially ended his career in Minnesota. A second-rounder would have been an insanely low price for Culpepper pre-injury, but obviously a waste afterward.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

You have made your decision based on 1 completed season. Which is your own opinion.

I think the general consensus is that is takes awhile to get your scheme and culture into place. 1+ years usually isnt enough time for you to clean out the previous culture.

Do you not think if Saban declared himself a free agent head coach that he wouldnt get the largest contract in NFL history?

Pete Carroll approves of this post

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think in general head coaches have a big impact, but there's a lot of luck involved as well, and wisdom in taking on the right situation at the time. It's way more complicated, even in college, than good coach = winning team.

Well said! And this same statement can be said for numerous professions.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Oregon gonna go retro for their HC?

That'd certainly be interesting

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Do you not think if Saban declared himself a free agent head coach that he wouldnt get the largest contract in NFL history?

I'm sure he would get a fat contract. A lot of organizations think being a good college coach translates to NFL success. They are proven wrong most of the time.

Not sure why this is controversial. There would be a lot of good NFL coaches who would bomb in college because they couldn't recruit worth a lick. Different leagues require different skill sets.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Pete Carroll approves of this post

What about Spurrier, Davis, Petrino, Riley, Holtz, Erickson, Schiano, Kiffen, Kelly, and Butch Davis? Can probably add Rhule to that list next season and Urban in a couple more if he sticks around.

Carroll is one of the greatest in the sport to ever do it. Same with Jimmy Johnson. But they're both exceptions to the rule.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Oregon gonna go retro for their HC?

That'd certainly be interesting

Very. Sitake feels like the guy they should be targeting, but maybe he isn't interested in leaving.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

What about Spurrier, Davis, Petrino, Riley, Holtz, Erickson, Schiano, Kiffen, Kelly, and Butch Davis? Can probably add Rhule to that list next season and Urban in a couple more if he sticks around.

Carroll is one of the greatest in the sport to ever do it. Same with Jimmy Johnson. But they're both exceptions to the rule.

Point being that Carroll was run out after 1 year, went to USC, came back and has been very successful, so you can say Saban could do the same, because like Carroll he is a very good to great coach.

Some of the guys you mentioned did not have the personalities to coach in the NFL, Spurrier and Holtz in particular. Saban is not that type of aw shucks, rah, rah coach.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Very. Sitake feels like the guy they should be targeting, but maybe he isn't interested in leaving.

Sitake is 100% not going, he wants to be the Poly Lavell and is using this to leverage more for the program ahead of the big 12 move.

the only way he goes is if the BOT, who control BYU and the purse strings screw him over. Which would be ridiculous if they did, since BYU has one of the strongest national followings in the sport and plenty of big donors.

[Swaggs]

Bill Walsh, Tom Coughlin, Dennis Green, Jim Harbaugh, Barry Switzer, and Dick Vermeil were all able to win in good environments. All of these guys have led teams to Super Bowl appearances or multiple conference championships. Bill O'Brien and Chip Kelly were both over .500 and made the playoffs in their first NFL stops (Kelly was terrible at SF and dumped his W/L record).

I don't think there is a whole lot to suggest that college to NFL coaches are any more or less successful than retreads or promoted OCs/DCs. If you have or develop a franchise QB, you generally have a good team. If not, you end up out of the job in 3 years.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Fake slide like Pitt's Kenny Pickett to be blown dead under new NCAA football rules interpretation

[Kodos]

Excellent.

[JonInMiddleGA]

AJC says UGA DC Lanning is the next HC at Oregon.

Pretty much the entire rest of the Twitterverse says nope, not so.

[GrantDawg]

My guess is that this like the Venables to OU rumor that turned true. The decision is all but final, but they still have to dot I's and cross t's.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[JonInMiddleGA]

BYU football coach Kalani Sitake has signed a new contract with the school through the 2027 season.

While not releasing terms, BYU called Sitake's new deal "unprecedented" in a news release.

[miami_fan]

NCAA Probes BYU, Miami NIL Deals for Potential Pay-for-Play Violation

I didn't think people were still trying to follow NCAA rules.

[miami_fan]

Alabama football coach Nick Saban receives massive contract extension

His base salary will remain $275,000. His talent fee for 2020-21 was $8.425 million and will continue to grow at a rate of $400,000 annually. It will reach $11.225 million in the final year of the extension. With his base salary and talent fee, he is set to make $11.5 million in 2028-29.

Talent fee.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Alabama football coach Nick Saban receives massive contract extension



Talent fee.

Took me several google articles to find out the reason behind that phrasing.
It covers his radio & TV appearances (coach show, etc)

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Took me several google articles to find out the reason behind that phrasing.
It covers his radio & TV appearances (coach show, etc)

I forget why, but it's been a standard way to account for coaching salaries for a long time now. It might have something to do with the annual publication of salaries at public universities, but in a case like this, you want people to know.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I forget why, but it's been a standard way to account for coaching salaries for a long time now. It might have something to do with the annual publication of salaries at public universities, but in a case like this, you want people to know.

Found a good explanation of it, I think.
Making Sense of College Coaching Contracts | Athletic Director U

Generally, only base salary is considered in determining standard employee benefits to which the coach is entitled, such as retirement plan contributions, vacation pay, and university provided life and disability insurance coverage

Also

many Power 5 basketball and football coaches derive their income from appropriating their name, likeness and other publicity rights to their university. Unless a coach is being compensated otherwise (as John Calipari is in his contract with the University of Kentucky), the coach should retain the right to enter into endorsement agreements with third parties as long as it does not interfere with their obligations under the university’s media rights, apparel deals, or other sponsorship agreements.

That structure keeps things from getting crazy with regard to retirement and insurance, but also it allows the university to keep him exclusive for sponsors who are paying them (because of him) instead of having him do his own car dealer, restaurant, etc ads and devaluing the ones the university sells using his likeness.

[JPhillips]

I wish the star was on both sides of the helmet, but otherwise, I fuking love the Navy uniforms.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Kirby Smart issues statement on Dan Lanning leaving for Oregon, reveals DC's plans for Playoff

In his statement, Smart wishes Lanning and his family the best. He says Lanning will coach with the Dawgs during the Playoff, but Will Muschamp and Glenn Schumann will work as co-defensive coordinators:

[Edward64]

Young did deserve the Heisman. Hope he does well in the NFL.

[miami_fan]

Do college football fans still care about the Heisman winner?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

NCAA Probes BYU, Miami NIL Deals for Potential Pay-for-Play Violation

I didn't think people were still trying to follow NCAA rules.

I didn't think there were still NCAA rules. I though the NCAA basically said "nope" for years. Then, when they had a court case that it looked like they would invariably lose, rather than crafting a framework in that time as a backup plan, instead they threw their hands up and said "do what you want".

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Bo Nix has entered the portal as a graduate transfer and will leave Auburn.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Do college football fans still care about the Heisman winner?

Only if they have a contender / pretender

[JonInMiddleGA]

Within a couple hours of the Bo Nix news, at least a couple of sites report that Tank Bigsby will also enter the transfer portal.

That's a much bigger blow to AU and, given the steady stream of exits on the past week, suggests to me that the players feel like the issues run deeper than what removing the woeful Mike Bobo will fix.