Colossal Events Poll- In your lifetime, you will see... (Please read 1st post first)

[sterlingice]

I hope everyone reads this before answering as there are some clarifications and "rules"

Introduction

Basically, the question is: "Which of these major events do you think are unlikely but possible?" Or if you think any are likely, include those as well. The idea is the ones that you think could happen in our lifetime, and I don't want to put a number on it, but something at, say, more than a 1% chance. More on that below.

The basic idea is that these are things none of us have ever seen and are just far enough out that a 50-80 year horizon makes things interesting. Remember, 110 years ago, we didn't even have flight and to cross the country, you used train so the moon would be crazy to think about just like outside of the solar system is now. Plagues have happened a lot through history, the last of this magnitude being 1917-1919 flu (5% dead, 20% infected) so that's probably fairly likely considering our overpopulation now. Some of this stuff hasn't happened in a long time- major geologic events are really rare- the last supervolcano being 26500 years ago, give or take- so those are probably less likely. Ask Bucc, he might have some good stories about those

Clarifications

I wanted to clarify on a few of the items:
-Great Depression isn't just bad economic times, it's awful economic times, like nothing anyone here has ever seen.
-I know 1 nuclear strike is major, but would anyone be really surprised if NKorea or Pakistan or someone did a quick nuclear strike on its neighbor which was harshly condemned but a singular event?
-United States empire- we're talking Canada/Mexico, Greenland, somewhere overseas- something big, not adding a protectorate here or there or doing "minor nation building"
-AIDS isn't really a plague in my mind since it has controllable vectors and isn't quick moving
-The major geologic/meteor events - likely would cause massive extinction, not just a "meteorite in Kansas destroys barn" or a 7.5 EQ in California. The minimum level for this is something on the level of a large chunk of California gets dumped into the Pacific.
-The Rapture/Judgement Day/End of Days - I meant to add in Raknarok for kicks. Basically the idea is the religious end of the world.

-Flying cars widely used means a large bunch of the population, or at least of the "1st world" population. Not something silly like the Segway where you see one and it's a novelty

Likelyhood

I really wish I could have created a grid with the following:
-Likely/Somewhat likely
-Unlikely
-Very small but non-zero
-Not at all

Maybe I'll create another thread for "very small but non-zero (or more likely)". But what we're looking for in this poll is anything that fits into the top 2 categories. If you think, say, there's a really small chance Yellowstone goes off and wipes us all out (as in a previous thread) but the chances of it happening in our lifetime are really remote due to the length of geologic time- that fits into very small but non-zero (VSBNZ). If you think robots will take over but the technology won't be nearly close enough for another 300 years, then that would be VSBNZ. If you think we could get past Mars in this lifetime but no chance on out of the solar system- well, you get the idea.

Conclusion
This is kindof a two-fold thing.

First, I'm curious how much people think these things have a chance of happening. These are some outlandish events but, again, who could have seen where we are now 100 years ago?

Secondly, "may you live in interesting times". It's an interesting proverb/curse. A lot of these events are bad, of course. But, of the good ones, I worry what we can accomplish, particularly my generation and not just here but around the world. We could do so much if we could stop our petty squabbling and work on stuff for the good of all. But we could also screw things up royally and these are powers and responsibilities that have only come about in the last 100 years. How much of the Earth's population can you wipe out on horseback or how can you even contemplate first contact with aliens when you can't even get off the ground?

Lastly, I'd love suggestions for other similar-level events if we ever do this thread again.

SI

[Rizon]

I've been waiting for this poll for like 4 minutes!

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Rizon

I've been waiting for this poll for like 4 minutes!

CATASTROPHIC!!!

[Rizon]

This poll is a cat-tastrophy!

[sterlingice]

It is no longer catastrophic- sounded too negative. Now it's Colossal- that sounds more FOFC

SI

[Sgran]

I put the Earth's population reaches 12B, which in my mind isn't nearly as far-fetched as most of the others. The second most likely would be either the nuclear strike or the major food shortage, and no I don't see a contradiction between that and the growth of population. The great limiting factor in our world is energy. If we solve the problems associated with relying on fossil fuels then the human population will continue to expand. Humans have proven they can live in places that many consider hell on earth, so I just don't see the limiting factors.

[sterlingice]

My thoughts:

Great Depression II- doesn't this most recent little jaunt into the downside of the economy just show us at least these 2 things?
1) We really don't know how this thing (re: the economy) works in the slightest. Even the smartest people who are supposed to get it, don't get it.
2) Even when it looks really dire, the people in charge are so greedy as to futiley keep ahold of their own little fiefdom even as the world around them burns.
So, yeah, Great Depression II is fairly likely.

United States collapses/expands- sure I see us maybe getting some states, but neither of these events will happen. The biggest thing I could see is "The North American Union" or something like that, similar to the EU. But those countries all still operate as separate entities, much moreso than the states within the US. Similarly, I don't see us collapse, but I'm fairly certain we won't be the world power we are now. We'll be the equivalent of the UK or Germany now- we'll be at the negotiating table but we won't be the big decision maker. Likely, it will be a coalition of similar powers or someone else will have risen to take our place.

World War 3- I just don't see it. I could see a China/US cold war. Who knows, maybe by then it will be a China/India cold war. Same with the nuclear war scenario. I could maybe see something like India and Pakistan going crazy on each other but even with crazies in charge, I think the major powers have more than enough sense to not do this. So, it's possible but I don't think so.

I'm pretty sure we're getting a scary plague in our lifetime. And, again, not some "pansy" plague like AIDS but an insane outbreak-like scenario. We're always teetering on that edge, particularly with quick global travel and slow response to something like that. No idea if we're talking about 10%, 50%, or 99% dead- that's the scary part for me.

I think we could get some sort of disease that does the same thing to our food supply. Or we'll screw up the planet so that we can't support food. I could see it pretty easily. Hopefully it doesn't. We're also going to have issues with lack of water soon (20-50 yrs), if we don't do something.

Meteors and geology are slow. Probably not in our lifetime.

Travel past Mars- I'm going to optimistic and say yes. Maybe I should have edited it since the only other planet we could land on is Venus since then we're talking about gas giants. But I think we might, in my most optimistic of projections, get people looking at maybe Jupiter or Venus. So, that vote is more for hope than realism. Outside of solar system, I think not.

Due to the last sentence of the last post, I think extermination by sentient life is unlikely. First contact fairly unlikely. I'll vote no on both.

I'll be the first to take Terminator/Matrix-like robot takeover. You know, I don't think it will happen, but it's possible in our lifetime. Tere are some people out there trying really hard to screw this up for all of us. Go read some AI stuff- there are some creepy, insane, and genius people trying to design stuff to live forever or replace people. And, if computing power gets complex enough, I could easily see us losing control. Read the book "I, Robot" (not the movie- completely different). Sure, it's unlikely but I'll go with it as a possibility. Probably less likely than some of the things I didn't vote for but it should get a vote.

Mass extinctions of >1%, 0- I don't think so. If so, I think they would have been covered in the previous events (most likely plague or the unlikely chance of a geologic/meteor event).

Religious end of the world- I think it's unlikely. God's not big on keeping schedules.

Global population 12B- hopefully, we get smarter about this like China did. That remains to be seen. I think that a plague will keep us down below that number in our lifetime.

Average age of over 100- I think that's going to be tough, too. Kurzweil is full of crap. I'd love to eat my words on that one, tho.

Flying Cars? We can't drive in 2D, much less 3D. Still, I think it might happen if civilization survives the next 100 years as we will get more dense. So, heck, I'll vote yes.

So, yeah, I think we have a chance at both some positive and negative ones. I think we either go down one road and incur a bunch of the bad or go down another and get some of the good. The only exception to this is that I could see plague wiping us out, people getting some perspective, and then working towards the good. But if we walk down that path towards war or some of the other ones, those will snowball (war begets plague begets famine, etc).

(ok, so I didn't entirely play by my own rules but it's my poll so I can do what I want I just wanted to get some conversation started)

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Sgran

I put the Earth's population reaches 12B, which in my mind isn't nearly as far-fetched as most of the others. The second most likely would be either the nuclear strike or the major food shortage, and no I don't see a contradiction between that and the growth of population. The great limiting factor in our world is energy. If we solve the problems associated with relying on fossil fuels then the human population will continue to expand. Humans have proven they can live in places that many consider hell on earth, so I just don't see the limiting factors.

I was brainstorming when I was thinking about this thread and then forgot- I wanted to put some sort of nearly limitless power supply (think: cold fusion, super solar power, etc)

SI

[Alan T]

I put a vote down for world war 3. As long as there has been human kind, there has been some form of war. I just don't see technology changing basic human nature any time soon. There will likely be some point that some body large pushes too far and it creates enough of a backlash against them that creates this scenario.

[Mustang]

A poll without a Zombie Apocalypse option is just worthless.

[Raiders Army]

Interesting but I don't think any of the above will occur.

[flere-imsaho]

The only three I think have somewhat of a chance in my lifetime are the plague, the food shortage, and the meteor/geologic event.

Meteor/Geologic Event

The instances of these are somewhat random (at least on a human scale) but arguably the 2004 Tsunami was this. I think we could see a few more of these during this century, and it is, to me, a fact that population growth makes the ramifications of these occurrences even greater (see the recent China earthquake as well).

Plague

We're probably overdue for a particularly virulent, drug-resistant flu pandemic. Given worldwide health conditions, a particularly nasty and fast-moving one could conceivably take out a good % of the world population, as in 1916-1918. Even with modern medicine. Frankly, I'd be kind of surprised if this doesn't happen in my lifetime.

Food Shortage

We've already come close to this a few times. All it'll take is a couple of particularly bad weather years and we could see this. Now in the first world I think the effects will be limited to high prices for food and widespread hunger, but not outright famine, but I can see it happening.


Most of the rest I don't see happening until the next century, if at all.

[lighthousekeeper]

I think people are forgetting that "the rest of our lifetime" is only about 35 more years for most of us on this board.

[Noop]

Alien Invasion will definitely happen.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

I think people are forgetting that "the rest of our lifetime" is only about 35 more years for most of us on this board.

Speak for yourself, old guy.

[lighthousekeeper]

Wouldn't it take 34 years for the world's average age to reach 100 (assuming no one dies or is born in the next 34 years, which doesn't seem likely)? If someone does happen to die or be born in the next 34 years, then that 34 year estimate would have to increase.

Very odd to see the people who voted for both "average age reaches 100" and "world population reaches 12B. If the world population baloons to 12B, it would be impossible to reach an average age of 100 in our lifetimes (I guess unless a voter assumes they will live to be well over 100).

[JediKooter]

Most Likely:

Geological Event - We already saw what happened in December of 06 with the sunami that followed the earthquake. We will see something like that again. California is close to being overdue, if I remember some of the articles correctly, I have read in the recent past.

Quick moving plague - With air travel and other means of transport, it's more than possible to happen. I'm surprised it hasn't already. Most seem to be coming from asia and there's lots of travel going there and coming back. All it would take is a mutation of SARS or something along those lines and BAM! There's our next pandemic.

Population over 12 billion - If Sarah Palin is elected president in 2012. The end of Planned Parenthood and most forms of birth control eleminated will all but assure reaching the 12 billion milestone. On a serious note...

I don't see much being done in the way of bringing most of the 3rd world countries out of their current state. One thing that 3rd world people know how to do, is have kids. 12 billion is not an unreasonable number to reach in my opinion. However (see below), that is if the world can even sustain a population that high.

Somewhat Likely:

Catastrophic event on food supplies - I think would effect those countries who rely on most of their food to be imported or that don't have mild winters. If this happens, I don't see the population reaching 12 billion. Lack of food for some countries may lead to what's next on my list.

Major Nuclear Strike - One would think a major nuclear strike would be stupid and endanger the food supply. No, what I think will happen is, a country will try to 'show' their might by nuking a 3rd party or long time enemy, to make the world see that they are a major player and demand their part of the food. Something like Iran nuking Israel. No major food resources being lost in that strike.

Other - People land on the Moon and Mars. I think NASAs goal is to get someone to Mars by 2040? I'll have to look it up to be sure. I think it is possible and I think it is a good idea. The world isn't getting any smaller and if humans want to continue their existence, we will have to start spreading out amongst the stars.

Unlikely:

World War 3 - Unlikely due to the fact that the players who could have started WWIII (USA/Soviet Union/China), didn't and now have too much money at stake in their economies to risk doing it to each other now. The smaller players wanting to be big players just don't have the resources to sustain a prolonged global war. So, I just don't see this as happening in my lifetime. There will still continue be conflicts like Iraq/Vietnam/Afganistan etc...though.

Great Depression 2 - It's possible, but, unlikely. There's different practices in place now than there were back during the Great Depression of the 1930s. But, who knows what could happen. Corporate greed knows no bounds...

Very Small but Non-Zero:

Flying Cars - I just don't see this happening. People have a hard enough time driving with the car on the ground. For the safety of the public, keep the cars on the ground. However, I WANT MY DAMN FLYING CAR ALREADY!!!!!

People land on a planet other than Mars - We are having a hard enough time getting back to the Moon, let alone Mars. Once those two have established permenant bases, then the possibility of going to another planet would be possible. But, which one? Venus and Mercury are too hot. Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neputne are all gaseous planets. Pluto seems to be the only planet beyond the asteriod belt that is rocky. Other than to try and establish a permenant base on Pluto, I see no reason to go there with manned missions. Now, if you are talking about landing on the moons of Jupiter or Saturn, that may be a slight possibility.

People travel out of the solar system - Speed & distance is still too great. The next closest star to Earth, Proxima Centauri, is 4.2 light years away. If NASA could get Project Orion technology working (using nuclear pulse propulsion), we could reach it probably in less than a century.

Make first contact with sentient life - Not looking good with current technology

People exterminated by sentient life - Unless these other beings have figured out faster than light travel, next to zero of this happening

Other Human mass extinction event (<1% of population left) - There's always a small chance of this happening. More resources are needed to detect NEOs and give us enough warning to protect ourselves would be great.

Other Human mass extinction event (0 left) See above.

United States expands its "Empire" - There is always a very small chance of this.

Not at All:

United States collapses or is taken over by another country - I don't see this happening in my lifetime. However, it seems, every great country has had a collapse at one point in its existence.

Robots/AI take over (ala Terminator or Matrix) - As interesting as this would make things, it just isn't going to happen in my lifetime. I really don't think we've progressed all that far from "chess" playing robots. Granted, there have been some great strides in AI the last few decades, but, it being applied in a large scale is far far off in the future.

The Rapture/Judgement Day/End of Days - The Rapture...which version? Pre-Tribulation, Mid-Tribulation, Prewrath, or Post-Tribulation? Doesn't really matter though, as like the rest of the bible, this is a made up folk tale to keep the sheep in line.

Judgement Day/End of Days...If we are talking about the biblical and 2012 predictions. Nope, not gonna happen. In 1999, there were tales of doom and horror and destruction, just like in 999. Humans seem to have this weird predesposition with associating bad things with numbers. Much like 666 is attributed to Satan, but, conveniently forget that 666 was also the number designation for Emperor Nero. 616 is thought to be for Caligula. 2012 is just the end of the long count calendar and the start of the new long count calendar? Are you sitting down for this??? 2013.

Average age for global population is over 100 years old (66 currently) - Not going to happen in my lifetime. Too many 3rd world countries would need to catch up to the rest of us and I don't think the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation can do it on its own.


Wild Card:

Zombie Apocalypse - There's untold numbers of the dead already buried beneath our feet. We could, possibily, in a blink of an eye, be in the middle of world wide disaster. This would be a challenge like no other that humankind has had to face in the past and could very likely see the end of humanity. Prepare yourselves people, prepare...

[Raiders Army]

What, no global warming?

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Sgran

The great limiting factor in our world is energy.

I would tend to say the greater limiting factor is water. The concept of wars over water is not out of the realm of possibility in some parts of the world and it could be argued that it is already happening in Africa. Drought worldwide may be at its peak since the '30s (that's coincidence, not irony) and the western U.S. has developed beyond its water means.

The temporary answer is desalinization, which requires loads of energy, so you could argue that energy is the key. However, without widespread desalinization, I think we'll run out of water before we run out of fuel.

I think just about everything on this list is "possible" except for maybe a few things that deny our known work of physics (such as sending a human outside the solar system or flying cars). As far as the others, I localized famines are highly probably but global unlikely. I'm somewhat surprised that given the frequencies of world travel and greater global exposure that we haven't had a major health crisis. I think that's a testament to modern medicine. However, evidence seems to suggest that the breakout of a drug-resistant supervirus may simply be a matter of time.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

What, no global warming?

Seems like a longer term event.

I guess I could have had super weather event like the giant hurricanes from Day After Tomorrow. Maybe next time.

SI

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

Wouldn't it take 34 years for the world's average age to reach 100 (assuming no one dies or is born in the next 34 years, which doesn't seem likely)? If someone does happen to die or be born in the next 34 years, then that 34 year estimate would have to increase.

Very odd to see the people who voted for both "average age reaches 100" and "world population reaches 12B. If the world population baloons to 12B, it would be impossible to reach an average age of 100 in our lifetimes (I guess unless a voter assumes they will live to be well over 100).

My assumption is that lifespan is based entirely on the age of people who to die, so new births would have no impact on lifespan.

That said, average age hitting 100 should should have been on my list of not going to happen. The average age of U.S. citizens went up about 30 years over the last century. A gain of that magnitude again will be more difficult. Getting just the U.S. average up to 100 might take 50-100 years. Considering that the lifepan in much of subsahara Africa is 45-50, that will easily take more than a century.

[Tigercat]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Robots/AI take over (ala Terminator or Matrix) - As interesting as this would make things

"As interesting as this would make things"??? Already kissing some metal ass, I see.*

*Perhaps its time for our vision of sci-fi robot overlords to be in plastic form? Plastic robot chaises would probably be much more efficient and comfortable for the Robot on the go.

[path12]

GDII and plague are what I put. But my time left is shorter than most of you, unless I find that quick fix to 100, baby!

I think if you pick another GD that will rule out space travel, sentient beings, etc -- too much money to develop with not enough around.

The one I didn't pick that looking back I should have is the famine.

Depression, famine and plague -- woo-hoo!

[path12]

Originally Posted by Noop

Alien Invasion will definitely happen.

Hopefully they're not gay and looking to adopt.

[Cringer]

I selected several, nuclear strike (I would guess this is done by the U.S., not some "evil" country), Great Depression II, U.S. collapse, plague, and geologic event.

I think a Great Depression II kind of depends on one of the others I picked happening to help push a depression on us, or to strengthen it to actually make if a "Great" depression. Famine (which I didn't pick but probably should have), plague, natural disaster, or something just not seen before hand (like the Dust Bowl) would push it over the edge.

[Noop]

Originally Posted by path12

Hopefully they're not gay and looking to adopt.

Hopefully they are so you have someone who will want you after you been sodomized by your alien overlords.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Noop

Hopefully they are so you have someone who will want you after you been sodomized by your alien overlords.

I expect the plague to get me first. But options are always nice.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by Tigercat

"As interesting as this would make things"??? Already kissing some metal ass, I see.*

*Perhaps its time for our vision of sci-fi robot overlords to be in plastic form? Plastic robot chaises would probably be much more efficient and comfortable for the Robot on the go.

Definitely not a tin skin fan. I'd be firmly rooted in the resistance against the robots, much like against the zombies.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Noop

Hopefully they are so you have someone who will want you after you been sodomized by your alien overlords.

I said Bot Bot in the Butt

I said Bot Bot in the Butt

[molson]

Cool poll SI.

I went with:
-Great Depression II (Sustained >15% unemployment for over a year)
-Major nuclear strike (>3 bombs)
-World War 3
-Quick moving plague that affects >10% of people, killing many
-Catastrophic Event on Food Supplies (global, not localized famine for longer than 6 months)
-Major meteor or geologic event (volcano, earthquake, etc)

So I think some there's a chance some shit goes down. (But I don't think the current recession is Great Depression II).

[path12]

Originally Posted by molson

So I think some there's a chance some shit goes down. (But I don't think the current recession is Great Depression II).

Might take you up on that if I had the cash. Have you seen this chart?

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

[Kodos]

But I thought we were all doomed in December, 2012.

[Big Fo]

One of the more interesting polls in my FOFC viewing history. I'd say we're a rather pessimistic bunch if it weren't for the wording of the OP and actually rethinking it now I'd have probably picked more of the options.

Other than flying cars maybe there should have been more "cool" options, like a magic seasoning that makes unappetizing but healthy foods taste like pizza. Or USA winning the World Cup. Or being able to change the TV channel by thinking instead of pressing a button.

[Alan T]

I am still waiting for smell-o-vision

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I put a vote down for world war 3. As long as there has been human kind, there has been some form of war. I just don't see technology changing basic human nature any time soon. There will likely be some point that some body large pushes too far and it creates enough of a backlash against them that creates this scenario.

So what you're saying is...'war never changes'?

Along those lines...what about a weapons system more powerful than atomic weapons? Will we see something like that in the next 70 years?

[Buccaneer]

The only that I think possible would be a major geologic event. We have had several in the 20th century, so why would you think we wouldn't have one in the next 35-50 years?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

The only that I think possible would be a major geologic event. We have had several in the 20th century, so why would you think we wouldn't have one in the next 35-50 years?

Well, yeah, but within the definition laid out in the first post- I tried to handicap and define some of these items. That's why I put in the "read 1st post first"

Yeah, we've had disease outbreaks every few years but not on the level we're talking about. Same with meteorite strikes- they happen all the time, but we're talking substantial meteor strike. As stated: "The major geologic/meteor events - likely would cause massive extinction, not just a "meteorite in Kansas destroys barn" or a 7.5 EQ in California. The minimum level for this is something on the level of a large chunk of California gets dumped into the Pacific."

I noticed a lot of people didn't quite play within the rules, but it was a fun thought exercise anyways

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

One of the more interesting polls in my FOFC viewing history. I'd say we're a rather pessimistic bunch if it weren't for the wording of the OP and actually rethinking it now I'd have probably picked more of the options.

Again, I know, not many people read the first post- I mean, really, the poll has as many words as most posts

Other than flying cars maybe there should have been more "cool" options, like a magic seasoning that makes unappetizing but healthy foods taste like pizza. Or USA winning the World Cup. Or being able to change the TV channel by thinking instead of pressing a button.

Well, as stated- the flying cars is the equivalent of the "trout" option. I was trying to come up with "bigger" events- either something landmark in terms of accomplishment or catastrophically bad. Inventions and future advances- that's a whole category of its own.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by molson

So I think some there's a chance some shit goes down. (But I don't think the current recession is Great Depression II).

I agree with that one- I don't think we're in GD2 right now. I could easily see a scenario where we're all back here in a few years or a couple decades and we don't have the power to play with money like we did this time. Realistically, we have a somewhat squishy money supply built up here- there's an insane amount of wealth in this country.

Right now we're "just" playing with people's lives and, really, if you look around- isn't there a lot of things you could sacrifice if you needed to? That doesn't make it easy- I like, say, my cable and my video game collection and my decent apartment- but I could do without many things if push came to shove. What happens when we keep making those margins between where we are an where we could be smaller and smaller?

The most haunting story about this was how they halted the money markets the day there was the computer run on them that took out over $500B because the dollar was broken. And how if they hadn't done it, in a few hours $5T would have been removed from the market, followed by US economic collapse, followed by world economic collapse the next day.

What happens when the middle class keeps compressing and that wealth is mismanaged by the few who have it? At that point, maybe the dollar is a bit weak and we've been talking about that for a few years. And then something like the scenario above happens again. Then what?

Again, I could easily see that kind of scenario playing out.

SI

[Buccaneer]

SI, but a 7.5 in an appropriate spot would be very devastating. A meteor can hit anywhere, most places in the continental US with equal chance. An earthquake in SF or LA is likely, as oppose to the middle of Kansas or NYC.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JediKooter

Definitely not a tin skin fan. I'd be firmly rooted in the resistance against the robots, much like against the zombies.

After playing too much Fallout 3 and always watching sci-fi, I've decided I'll be no good in the post-apocalyptic world. Skynet might as well get me with that first blast because I'm not going to help out much in a resistance. That's for hardened people and quick thinkers. I'm the type of person who other MMORPG'ers make fun of as a "care bear" and it takes me 2 hours to respond to my own poll

SI

[stevew]

An EMP attack taking out a large amount of our power grid is one of my greatest realistic fears.

And I suspect we will see a presidential assassination in our lifetimes. There's been one every 50 years and we're due. Not that I want to see it tho.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

SI, but a 7.5 in an appropriate spot would be very devastating. A meteor can hit anywhere, most places in the continental US with equal chance. An earthquake in SF or LA is likely, as oppose to the middle of Kansas or NYC.

Hmm... between that and flere taking about the tsunami-that has me thinking about scale. I went back and checked- I didn't realize that registered as a 9.1~9.3. That's just mind boggling to me. Between that and over 200K dead- maybe that qualifies. I guess the question is- if that doesn't, then what does?

I didn't realize that there were 3 more EQs in Asia in the last 100 years that had over 100K fatalities and were above 7.5- but those seem, not small, but not on the same level as the other events on the list. So those definitely wouldn't count as "major geologic events" on the same level as a global flu pandemic, global famine, nuclear/world war, etc. They seem on the same level as, say, a regional war or regional outbreak of disease or famine- things that are fairly common or routine. I was looking more at something the world describes as "I lived in the time of X" (except for the couple of local US-related events".

I also put those also on the same level as, say, a meteor striking part of, say, LA- not something that wipes out the whole city but is traumatizing for the nation, nonetheless. Frankly, it's the same at 9/11. For as life altering as it is/was for some people here, you think people in Japan or Belgium or Egypt or India give it more than a passing thought at this point, less than 10 years later, unless they're watching American news (or traveling through our damn airport security)?

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I would tend to say the greater limiting factor is water. The concept of wars over water is not out of the realm of possibility in some parts of the world and it could be argued that it is already happening in Africa. Drought worldwide may be at its peak since the '30s (that's coincidence, not irony) and the western U.S. has developed beyond its water means.

The temporary answer is desalinization, which requires loads of energy, so you could argue that energy is the key. However, without widespread desalinization, I think we'll run out of water before we run out of fuel.

Oh, that's coming. I just didn't know how to put "water wars" into a cogent item. Plus, that's going to be more regional than global, I suspect.

I think just about everything on this list is "possible" except for maybe a few things that deny our known work of physics (such as sending a human outside the solar system or flying cars). As far as the others, I localized famines are highly probably but global unlikely. I'm somewhat surprised that given the frequencies of world travel and greater global exposure that we haven't had a major health crisis. I think that's a testament to modern medicine. However, evidence seems to suggest that the breakout of a drug-resistant supervirus may simply be a matter of time.

Testament to modern medicine or just a lot of luck?

SI

[Buccaneer]

I lived in the time of the American Civil War. That was fairly devastating, you know?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

I lived in the time of the American Civil War. That was fairly devastating, you know?

Touche

SI

[Big Fo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Again, I know, not many people read the first post- I mean, really, the poll has as many words as most posts

Oh I read the opening post, I just meant that some of the geological stuff is probably more likely than I had originally thought.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hmm... between that and flere taking about the tsunami-that has me thinking about scale. I went back and checked- I didn't realize that registered as a 9.1~9.3. That's just mind boggling to me. Between that and over 200K dead- maybe that qualifies. I guess the question is- if that doesn't, then what does?

If it were 200k dead in the US I'm sure we'd say that it qualifies...

[sterlingice]

Well, one of the points of the exercise is to make it a global event- not something regional. How big a death toll does it have to be on the other side of the world for it to be something everyone recognizes? Again, I go back to how we perceive 9/11 and how the rest of the world does.

Even if your country isn't run over by the flu or has enough food to survive a global famine or another country makes first contact with aliens- we'll all remember that. I mean, even tho it wasn't us, we know Sputnik had the first human in space.

SI

[Noop]

Great thread. I believe we will be taken over by Aliens or be ravaged by some super virus.

[Honolulu Blue]

Fun thread. Sorry I missed it the first time around. I'll give my thoughts. I don't know how long I'll live, so I kept the timeline to 2050. If I had the lifetime of some of you, the answers might be different. Keep in mind that I have no inside knowledge:

* Great Depression II - very small. I think the US will debase the currency before we get to this point, with its own consequences, but there's always a chance things could get really awful with the next financial crisis.
* Major nuclear strike - unlikely. If Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, et al., can build one bomb, they can build several of them. We, of course, will protect our allies, property, and territory with counter strikes. Could happen.
* World War III - unlikely. See above. Also, there's always the possibility of a jihad/holy war/crusade that's based on religion and economics.
* U.S. collapses/taken over - not at all. I think we're good for the next 40 years. Beyond that, who knows?
* U.S. expands its empire - somewhat likely. We're basically running the developed areas of Iraq and Afghanistan now. Why not take the next step? 10% of the world's oil? $1-3 TRILLION in mineral assets? Millions have died in wars over a whole lot less $$$.
* Quick moving plague - very small. Maybe someone's military bug will get out and terrorize us all, but I think we've got a handle on the regular stuff.
* Catastrophic food event - zero. There will always be localized famines and scarcities, but nothing big enough to be global.
* Major metor/geologic event - very small.
* Land on planet other than Mars - somewhat likely. If we can rein in our deficits enough to give NASA a few extra billion, we can do it. There are also other countries out there too that can do this.
* Travel outside solar system - zero. We'd have to travel near the speed of light to get to anywhere interesting in any reasonable amount of time. Sid would disagree, but I don't think we're near the tech for this.
* Make first contact with sentient life - zero. Only in the movies.
* Exterminated by sentient life - zero. Only in paranoid movies.
* Mass extinction event - zero. Well, the sun is supposed to expand inside our orbit. That would do us in, but it's a couple of billion years away.
* Robots/AI take over - zero.
* Average age over 100 - very small. US life expectancies have increased slowly (chug chug chug). Russians have decreased (glug glug glug). And we still don't have a complete answer for HIV. Not happening, sorry.
* Global population reaches 12B - very small. Not by 2050, but we'll eventually get there.
* The end of the world (as we know it) - very, very small.

I say it's 50-50 that any of these things will happen by 2050. If I had to rank their likelihood, I'd say getting to another planet, then the US expansion, then who knows?