2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Butter

How likely is it that he wins NC though? I feel like that state has been teetering on the edge of going full blown blue like Virginia has for a few years now. But it was a fairly solid Trump state, so I feel like they're teasing me.

I'm thinking NC ends up stronger for Biden than anticipated. Some of the right may be shy about their backing of Trump here, but NOT SO for Forest for governor. However, all three polls in the last 10 days have increased Cooper's lead into the doubt digits. It's a quite passionate race because of COVID-19. NC has taken significantly stronger measures than nearly all nearby states, which has the right up in arms and the left determined to keep him in office over Forest, who has been vocal about wanting to open everything up full-blast. I think Biden gets a boost from COVID and Cooper here, especially with cases rising again.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

538 says 50.5% Biden, 48.8% Trump. So just north of a coin-flip basically, a very real possibility.

The interactive map, when blank, is showing 63% Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/

[albionmoonlight]

dola: and it might not grow blue.

I am actually pretty confident this year b/c a lot of the swing voters are educated suburban types. And those are breaking for Biden. Hell, think of Ben voting against Trump.

But if you had a Jeb vs. Warren or Bernie, I think it would be easily GOP.

[Brian Swartz]

We're talking about different projections. I should have clarified - I was looking at projected vote total, you're talking likelihood to win (which is the question that was asked, so boo on me there).

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We're talking about different projections. I should have clarified - I was looking at projected vote total, you're talking likelihood to win (which is the question that was asked, so boo on me there).

Ah. Makes sense.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Virginia had the fast-growing DC suburbs to push it rapidly blue.

NC does not have that, so if it goes blue, it might be more of the Colorado route where it lives as purple for a while.

Sure, while maybe not as fast, it has been growing by picking up migrants from the north, which would slowly cause it to turn. And most people are moving into the cities there, Charlotte and the Triangle.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola: and it might not grow blue.

I am actually pretty confident this year b/c a lot of the swing voters are educated suburban types. And those are breaking for Biden. Hell, think of Ben voting against Trump.

But if you had a Jeb vs. Warren or Bernie, I think it would be easily GOP.

Perhaps. But they have a Democratic governor who is getting re-elected, and likely about to turn a Senate seat blue. And not one of those Doug Jones blue seats either.

[BillyMadison]

This is my election night prediction. I think Trump takes FL, PA, OH, and N.C., and Biden still wins. Narrowly.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by BillyMadison

This is my election night prediction. I think Trump takes FL, PA, OH, and N.C., and Biden still wins. Narrowly.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

If that's how it ends up, there will be more RNC attorneys in the Upper Midwest than residents in November.

[Brian Swartz]

Just need one of those EVs in Maine or Nebraska to flip then so we can get to 269-all and have ourselves a real crisis. But, unfortunately for that theory, I don't see it being anywhere near that close.

[BYU 14]

I just can't see PA going for Trump again, it is obviously the key state, but I think Trump's recent surge will flatten out by election day.

[Ben E Lou]

Oh, and irritating personal story regarding our governor's race from this weekend...

Wife To Her Mother On The Phone: "Man, remote learning with {2nd grader} has been tough. We're thinking about putting her in private school earlier than anticipated because we're not sure we can handle much more of this. We doubt public schools are going to return to in-person learning any time soon here."

MIL: "OMG YES COOPER HAS GOT TO GO!!!! HE IS SOOOOOO OPPRESSIVE!!! KIDS NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL!!!!111"

SWMBO: "Uh, mom. Cooper said schools could open back in the summer. Public schools are doing in-person in many parts of the state. This is a Guilford County School System decision."


Proud of my wife for setting her straight, but good gracious.

[CrimsonFox]

Some Hamilton County early voting stats through 10/27:
Total votes cast: 200,967
In-person votes cast: 56,961
Absentee ballots returned: 144,006
Absentee ballots requested but not yet returned: 36,258
Party affiliation breakdown of in-person:
Dem: 19,927
Rep: 6,893
Other/Unaffiliated: 30,141
Party affiliation breakdown of absentee:
Dem: 51,658
Rep: 23,527
Other/Unaffiliated: 68,821
Party affiliation breakdown of unreturned absentee:
Dem: 5,114
Rep: 3,201
Other/Unaffiliated: 27,943
Daily in-person totals continue to climb. 4,619 people vote yesterday. The first day (10/6) saw 3,058 voters. Of the 18 days of in-person voting so far, 10/6 is now only the 11th highest total. This past Sunday was the first day since 10/15 that vote totals didn't exceed those of 10/6.


and there are 600199 registered voters in the county

[larrymcg421]

I wonder what the odds are that Trump doesn't win a single state with more than 11 EC's. If Biden wins TX, OH, PA, and NC, along with the others where he's expected to win, that's what we're looking at.

[CrimsonFox]

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Oh, and irritating personal story regarding our governor's race from this weekend...

Wife To Her Mother On The Phone: "Man, remote learning with {2nd grader} has been tough. We're thinking about putting her in private school earlier than anticipated because we're not sure we can handle much more of this. We doubt public schools are going to return to in-person learning any time soon here."

MIL: "OMG YES COOPER HAS GOT TO GO!!!! HE IS SOOOOOO OPPRESSIVE!!! KIDS NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL!!!!111"

SWMBO: "Uh, mom. Cooper said schools could open back in the summer. Public schools are doing in-person in many parts of the state. This is a Guilford County School System decision."


Proud of my wife for setting her straight, but good gracious.

Wife's parents have drank the Kool-Aid and call him "Comrade Cooper" (that may be even more of a stretch than calling Biden a Communist). And all their friends in Fayetteville can't stand him either.

They are going to be shocked when Cooper wins by 10.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I'm thinking NC ends up stronger for Biden than anticipated. Some of the right may be shy about their backing of Trump here, but NOT SO for Forest for governor. However, all three polls in the last 10 days have increased Cooper's lead into the doubt digits. It's a quite passionate race because of COVID-19. NC has taken significantly stronger measures than nearly all nearby states, which has the right up in arms and the left determined to keep him in office over Forest, who has been vocal about wanting to open everything up full-blast. I think Biden gets a boost from COVID and Cooper here, especially with cases rising again.

I agree with all this.

I lived in NC for 5-years and we spent last week there (since kids can be in school from anywhere anyway). Anecdotal, but I was surprised by the number of Biden signs that I saw in the eastern part of the state where it is more rural and there are a lot of settled and retired military families. There were definitely more Trump signs (and more fanatical Trump houses with giant flags and/or multiple signs), but I'd say it was something like 3-2 or 2-1. I would have expected the parts we went through to be more like rural WV and PA around here, where it is typically more like 10-1 or 15-1.

I was also amazed at the number of Cunningham/Tillis commercials - I have never seen anything like it. My 11-year old knows more about them than our own senators at this point. I have to think nearly 100% of voters know who they both are.

Between the signs, tone of the commercials, and fact that there is less chance of shenanigans (with the election being administered by a Dem executive branch), I think NC is more likely to go to Biden than FL.

[larrymcg421]

I'm getting the feeling that many swing states are going to be bigger Biden than the polls currently show. I think there's a chance that some of the changes pollsters made in reaction to 2016 may have been overcorrecting. There's no reason Biden would be a worse EC candidate than Clinton (he appeals far more to swing state voters than she did), so I'm not buying the huge difference in national polls and the tipping point state (PA) polls.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

You guys know there's a prediction thread, right? It's got like words and everything: 2020 Election Prediction Contest - Front Office Football Central

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'm getting the feeling that many swing states are going to be bigger Biden than the polls currently show. I think there's a chance that some of the changes pollsters made in reaction to 2016 may have been overcorrecting. There's no reason Biden would be a worse EC candidate than Clinton (he appeals far more to swing state voters than she did), so I'm not buying the huge difference in national polls and the tipping point state (PA) polls.

I've wondered this as well

SI

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

You guys know there's a prediction thread, right? It's got like words and everything: 2020 Election Prediction Contest - Front Office Football Central

SI

stop oppressing me with your fascist threads

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Some Hamilton County early voting stats through 10/27:
Total votes cast: 200,967
In-person votes cast: 56,961
Absentee ballots returned: 144,006
Absentee ballots requested but not yet returned: 36,258
Party affiliation breakdown of in-person:
Dem: 19,927
Rep: 6,893
Other/Unaffiliated: 30,141
Party affiliation breakdown of absentee:
Dem: 51,658
Rep: 23,527
Other/Unaffiliated: 68,821
Party affiliation breakdown of unreturned absentee:
Dem: 5,114
Rep: 3,201
Other/Unaffiliated: 27,943
Daily in-person totals continue to climb. 4,619 people vote yesterday. The first day (10/6) saw 3,058 voters. Of the 18 days of in-person voting so far, 10/6 is now only the 11th highest total. This past Sunday was the first day since 10/15 that vote totals didn't exceed those of 10/6.


and there are 600199 registered voters in the county

i just looked myself on the registered voter list. And I call bullshit. It has me for a Dem this year but in previous elections it has me as NOn...which is total BS. I've only ever voted Dem.

[CrimsonFox]

Here's Amy Poehler rallying for NC

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=847613432673187

Happy Days Gang was for Wisconsin

I love all the reunion fundraisers

[thesloppy]

I've been waiting on/dreading this election that's seemingly been in the far future for so long and now that it's only a week away my brain doesn't know how to process it so good.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

i just looked myself on the registered voter list. And I call bullshit. It has me for a Dem this year but in previous elections it has me as NOn...which is total BS. I've only ever voted Dem.

Do you have to register by party in NC? They don't announce based on voting records (that's private), but based on voter registration.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Here's Amy Poehler rallying for NC

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=847613432673187

Happy Days Gang was for Wisconsin

I love all the reunion fundraisers

They have $100 more in the coffers now. Thanks, Amy! Say hi to L'il Sebastian for me!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Kodos

They have $100 more in the coffers now. Thanks, Amy! Say hi to L'il Sebastian for me!

If I dressed like Amy Poehler would you give ME $100 that quickly?

[CrimsonFox]

GO KODOS! BEAT KANG!

[JPhillips]

If he just would have taken the virus seriously, he might be winning.

Trump continues to mock masks, saying falsely, "In California, you have a special mask. You cannot under any circumstances take it off. You have to eat through the mask. Right?...It's a very complex mechanism. And they don't realize, those germs, they go through it like nothing."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 28, 2020

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I lived in NC for 5-years and we spent last week there (since kids can be in school from anywhere anyway). Anecdotal, but I was surprised by the number of Biden signs that I saw in the eastern part of the state where it is more rural and there are a lot of settled and retired military families. There were definitely more Trump signs (and more fanatical Trump houses with giant flags and/or multiple signs), but I'd say it was something like 3-2 or 2-1. I would have expected the parts we went through to be more like rural WV and PA around here, where it is typically more like 10-1 or 15-1.

I was also amazed at the number of Cunningham/Tillis commercials - I have never seen anything like it. My 11-year old knows more about them than our own senators at this point. I have to think nearly 100% of voters know who they both are.

Between the signs, tone of the commercials, and fact that there is less chance of shenanigans (with the election being administered by a Dem executive branch), I think NC is more likely to go to Biden than FL.

This is interesting to me because I'm reading from some sources that are bullish on Trump winning NC fairly easily due to the fact that there and in a couple of other close states Republicans are strongly favored in new voter registrations right now. I have no idea who is right and have spent probably two days of my entire life in North Carolina, just passing through for all of it, but I always find fascinating the number of people who take the same facts and draw opposite conclusions.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

GO KODOS! BEAT KANG!

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If he just would have taken the virus seriously, he might be winning.

Trump continues to mock masks, saying falsely, "In California, you have a special mask. You cannot under any circumstances take it off. You have to eat through the mask. Right?...It's a very complex mechanism. And they don't realize, those germs, they go through it like nothing."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 28, 2020

I can confirm, we do not have special eating masks in CA.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I can confirm, we do not have special eating masks in CA.

those are called avocados

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Do you have to register by party in NC? They don't announce based on voting records (that's private), but based on voter registration.

You register as R, D, or I in NC. You have to be pretty firmly entrenched in your political identity, or simply not thinking much about it, though. A registered independent can vote in either primary that he or she chooses. It’s the only smart play if you think that your preferred party might go nutso. (So says the guy who moved here in 2014, read the rules, and immediately registered as an I despite never having voted in a D primary.* Total no-brainer, and BOY did I become happy not to be associated with the Republican Party in any way a year and a half or so later....)




*—Well, other than sending Cynthia home back in the day.

[JediKooter]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I can confirm, we do not have special eating masks in CA.

Can confirm as well. They are specially configured to work with the paper straws we have and you have to hug a tree every time you take it off.

[ISiddiqui]

Good news for Democrats in North Carolina:

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/st...803713538?s=20

NEWS: The Supreme Court has declined to block lower court rulings that allow six extra days for accepting ballots sent by mail in North Carolina. The justices left the later deadline in place, a victory for Democrats in a presidential battleground state.

[sterlingice]

Same with Pennsylvania
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/polit...ett/index.html

The US Supreme Court is leaving in place for now a Pennsylvania state Supreme Court decision that allowed the counting of ballots received up to three days after the election, even if there is no legible postmark. The justices on Wednesday denied a request from Pennsylvania Republicans to review the decision on an accelerated basis.

SI

[Lathum]

Why would they rule Wisconsin has to be same day it other states don’t. That seems odd to me. I’m assuming it’s something in the specific wording from the states side

[JPhillips]

Seems like Roberts and Kavanaugh understand the politics. At least in the Pa case they left the door open to invalidate the ballots later if the margin of victory is small. It sure looks to me like they are willing to interfere in the election, but they won't until they know if it will make a difference.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why would they rule Wisconsin has to be same day it other states don’t. That seems odd to me. I’m assuming it’s something in the specific wording from the states side

because the only way they can win is cheat

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

You register as R, D, or I in NC. You have to be pretty firmly entrenched in your political identity, or simply not thinking much about it, though. A registered independent can vote in either primary that he or she chooses. It’s the only smart play if you think that your preferred party might go nutso. (So says the guy who moved here in 2014, read the rules, and immediately registered as an I despite never having voted in a D primary.* Total no-brainer, and BOY did I become happy not to be associated with the Republican Party in any way a year and a half or so later....)




*—Well, other than sending Cynthia home back in the day.

Yeah. For the reasons Ben explained, it makes sense to be registered with neither party here. I started as unaffiliated. But I did change my registration to Democrat at some point On the very small chance that my career path may have taken me in a direction where I would have worked in some sort of political capacity.

It did not. But I am not motivated enough to change back to unaffiliated because, as noted, what’s the point?

[JPhillips]

What are the odds!?!

[GrantDawg]

I think it was Canadian girlfriend.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

because the only way they can win is cheat

See, this is where I get confused. Everybody was mad that the court nearly overruled a state in Pennsylvania. I agreed that it was good they didn't. Now they're mad that the court won't overrule Wisconsin. So which is it? Should the court overrule states decisions about their own elections, or shouldn't it? Or is it just that they should overrule the ones we want them to overrule?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

See, this is where I get confused. Everybody was mad that the court nearly overruled a state in Pennsylvania. I agreed that it was good they didn't. Now they're mad that the court won't overrule Wisconsin. So which is it? Should the court overrule states decisions about their own elections, or shouldn't it? Or is it just that they should overrule the ones we want them to overrule?

It's about counting the votes that are postmarked by Election Day - not about which state does what.

For example imagine if a state said the final count had to be certified 1 hour after the polls close, the SCOTUS would strike it down on Equal Protection and Voting Right Act grounds. Same concept.

[JPhillips]

Dear God this will drive Trump crazy.

This is the Covey Spreader. Nasty. pic.twitter.com/BzcrBmBKCv

— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) October 29, 2020

[BYU 14]

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Issidiqui

It's about counting the votes that are postmarked by Election Day - not about which state does what.

If that was the case then nobody would be talking about whether the court should overrule a state, and yet that was what everyone was talking about with Pennsylvania. The argument instead would have been 'they should be telling all states they must do this' You may know more about this than I do; where does the 'postmarked by Election Day' standard come from? I.e., what federal law does not doing it that way violate?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

If that was the case then nobody would be talking about whether the court should overrule a state

How exactly do you think these cases come to SCOTUS?

where does the 'postmarked by Election Day' standard come from? I.e., what federal law does not doing it that way violate?

Like the example in my previous post. If a state demanded voting stopped an hour after polls closed it would be found to violate the Equal Protection Clause (and likely Voting Rights Act considering which precincts normally come in late). People who postmark their ballots on election day are voting on election day. Though I think they may be able to get around it if they said X day is the last day they'll take as a postmark absentee ballots (provided it's not like 3 weeks before Election Day) but they'll count all the ballots. Complicating it of course is that in the Wisconsin primary SCOTUS allowed for all ballots postmarked by Primary Day to be counted even if recieved after Primary Election Day.

[kingfc22]

Maybe Jack Nicklaus found the missing Biden documents that never made it to Tucker Carlson.