WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

after rereading telle's argument and jeheinz's vote-pairing - i want to see both telle and CR lynched frankly.

and i realize i neglected to mention that abe could be a wolf in my little listing of who was left

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE TELLE

Frankly...everyone looks like a wolf. Even heinz isn't clear after Lathum's cryptic nonresponse yesterday to the question of whether the wolf could kill the BG as he is protecting him.

That said, I would eat my hat if heinz were the wolf. He's about the only guy I trust right now.

Everyone else, you could build a good case against (including myself, obviously).

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

what the hell's the vote count now?

Four on me. One on RPI-Fan and one on Chief.

[DaddyTorgo]

Chief's on the block right after you Telle, in my mind

[DaddyTorgo]

wait a second - with lathum's cryptic non-response what if heinze is the wolf and rpi is the janitor and they're playing us?

[Telle]

Couldn't you put him before me so that I can actually be around for the villager win?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Telle

I would rather get a possible wolf than an obvious janitor, when the janitor figures in our numbers. That said, I agree with the sentiment that we can't let RPI wait too much longer. Tomorrow probably, day after that at the latest.

And here is how he gets away with not voting for RPI-Fan on Day 4 but voting for him every day since.

BTW, I'm glad you post this, but then illogically discount it. It's a perfectly legit reason to not go after RPI at that time. That was two votes ago. At that time, we had lots of time left to take a shot or two. Now, we have put our backs against the wall by dallying on trying to guess who's a wolf, rather than ridding of ourselves of the one known baddie (IMO, known, I reject any theories that says he is not the janitor until proven otherwise).

[DaddyTorgo]

or rpi could be the wolf and heinze could be the janitor and heinze could have hooked up with him and be giving him instructions that he's sending to lathum via email on who to kill

[Telle]

I don't think RPI is playing anything. I don't think heinz is the wolf though, based on his Day 1 play. But that doesn't necessarily put him beyond suspicion.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

wait a second - with lathum's cryptic non-response what if heinze is the wolf and rpi is the janitor and they're playing us?

Oh, dude, don't you dare take us down this road right now.

[Chief Rum]

FTR, I am trying to ignore Lathum's response to hopefully give us more clarity with our votes. For the most part, it has worked. I probably shouldn't have brought it up.

[DaddyTorgo]

lol - i'm one paranoid motherfucker

[Telle]

DT, the more wild theories you spin the less I'm comfortable having you in my "likely good" category. Feels like "sowing confusion" to me.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

lol - i'm one paranoid motherfucker

Right, you and I both know that jeheinz is as close to cleared as any of us is going to be this game.

[DaddyTorgo]

eh - i'm always one to spin crazy theories. especially as we're getting down here like this towards the end. leave no stone unturned.

*shrug*

[Telle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

eh - i'm always one to spin crazy theories. especially as we're getting down here like this towards the end. leave no stone unturned.

*shrug*

Well I'm about to get lynched and I'm still not about to go chasing shadows

[DaddyTorgo]

ya know what though - kudos to the last wolf - they've done very well to this point in hiding themself. i gotta say that

[Chief Rum]

Well, since no one's really looking to move to RPI, I guess I'll give up that quest. Willing to switch back to that, though, if anyone's inclined. I really do think it's the best move for us right now.

UNVOTE RPI
VOTE TELLE

[Telle]

Well I'd move to RPI to save my own skin.. but I don't think there'll be enough movement to make it happen.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Telle

Well I'd move to RPI to save my own skin.. but I don't think there'll be enough movement to make it happen.

I don't think there would be either. And we would need two others to go besides us, because, assuming RPI doesn't magically show up and vote, we're at evens right now, and three switches is just a no lynch (which is worse than lynching RPI).

[Telle]

Yeah not lynching would be bad. I'd actually prefer to be lynched over having that happen.. as a no lynch seriously hurts the village, even more than losing a villager.

[Telle]

Well so long all. I would recommend looking at Chief next, and then Abe.

[Lathum]

deadline

[Lathum]

Telle 5 Jeff (1062), Abe (1096) JEHeinze (1133) DT (1147) CR (1167)
CR 1 Telle ( 1070)

After a back and forth day you all decide Telle must be a wolf, or in cahoots with them. You string her up and lynch her, but nothing much happens. You all look around, no one willing to make eye contact.

[Lathum]

You all wake up in the morning to find Jeff's mangled body, it looks like he put up a good fight, but in the end he became somethings dinner.

[Abe Sargent]

My next vote is relatively easy. Anyone disagree with heading CR's direction?

[Abe Sargent]

I don;t believe the wolves put two votes on EF on Day One. Everybody here but CR voted for EF. My guess is they spread out.

[Telle]

Good luck villagers!

[Abe Sargent]

Thanks, sorry to kill you.

[DaddyTorgo]

Chief Rum is where I want to head too.

VOTE CHIEF RUM

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

My next vote is relatively easy. Anyone disagree with heading CR's direction?

not at all. i was on him earlier until it became apparent that there was no support there.

[Chief Rum]

I can acknowledge there is logic to your stance, Abe, but you're wrong. I don't know who the last wolf is, and I can't explain how the wolves have voted, so I can't really counter what you're saying.

All I know is, I am not the last wolf.

And I still think our best move is to take out RPI. He's dangerous enough today. If we fail to lynch a wolf tomorrow, and RPI suddenly turns up, we lose. Heck, if Lathum's rule set is on the mark, the last wolf is the brutal. That might be the tiebreaker in the event RPI doesn't even show up (as is likely), and Monday's vote is one versus one versus (absent).

If we take care of RPI, guaranteed we have two good guys to one bad guy, and I think it will be pretty clear at that point who the wolf is.

What we can't afford to do with this vote is lynch a villager, that I know for sure.

[Chief Rum]

Everyone left in the game, BTW, is pretty much an acknowledged vet. I certainly hope that we will get some discussion going, and not just lock into me. Obviously, that is my fervent desire, as the intended target, but I am convinced that if we lynch a non-RPI villager today, we lose.

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm - guess i need to breakdown the numbers and see where we're at...but i can see the logic in your theory CR.

confound you - you're being very tough to read this game

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hmmm - guess i need to breakdown the numbers and see where we're at...but i can see the logic in your theory CR.

confound you - you're being very tough to read this game

This is actually the game where I would like to be easy to read, since then maybe people would be more willing to consider that I am not the last wolf.

But I play my game with logic for the most part, and I understand the logic has a lean in my direction, as Abe pointed out. I have fought that before (both as wolf and villager), and generally I lose out. Of course, when logic leads to the wrong answer, it's because we don't have enough information. It's doing so here, too, but I don't think we have any more information coming, except what we can drum up.

[Abe Sargent]

I think going rpi-fan may end up killing us now. I wanted to do it earlier, so we could just get it over with. Not sure that today it will be good though. I think we may need to start gambling.

Players left:

CR
me
DT
jeheinz
rpifan

Let's assume for the moment that rpifan and jeheinz are not included in the last wolf. One is likely the janitor and the other is the closest thing to cleared we have. That leaves:

Me
CR
DT

Well, I know I'm good. Whichever of CR and DT is not a wolf knows they are good. That means we have, from my vantage point, a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf by voting either DT or CR. Note that another player (either CR or DT) which is a wolf will create a 50/50 list out of CR and me (for DT) or a 50/50 list out of me and DT (for CR).

We cannot kill rpi-fan today.

Here's why.

Kill rpi-fan today.

Tonight one of the remaining three players is killed. Tomorrow, 2-1 odds vs. wolf. 50/50 chance of taking him down. One shot.

Leave rpi fan alive today. Take our 50/50 chance now. Tonight villager dies. Miss and tommorrow we have rpifan, wolf and villager, with rpifan not voting. Means 1:1 tie. No lynch. Wolf kills at night. Hmm. That does not work.

Either way it looks like we have a 50/50 shot once. Might as well kill rpifan today, because then tomorrow, the final three will have more info than we have today.

Fair enough. I meant to talk myself into voting CR but I just talked myself into voting rpifan.

vote rpifan

[DaddyTorgo]

nice breakdown Abe.

I know I'm a villager too fwiw.

[Abe Sargent]

Oh, and if a bunch vote rpifan, just in case

Vote nightfall

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

nice breakdown Abe.

I know I'm a villager too fwiw.

What do you know? I know I'm a villager, too.

Obviously, one of the five of us (well, four at best, we can discount RPI) is lying. Not sure there's much point to saying "I'm a villager" anymore, since we all know we are either being honest when we say it, or the one guy who isn't will lie and say he is a villager, too.

Abe has run down the logic on an RPI Fan lynch quite well, I think. It's much the same stuff I have been harping on, although I admit, I didn't even think about the tie vote=no lynch aspect of the last vote.

[Abe Sargent]

Now that I think about it, I'll back off nightfall in case we want to talk this through a few times.

Vote Nightfall

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry, meant unvote nightfall for now

[Chief Rum]

Heh...kinda thought that's what you meant.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I have to leave for work, so I will be out most of the day. I'll be back before deadline, though. Here's my vote.

VOTE RPI

Same reasons as listed, with the added emphasis on Abe's logic a few posts above this one.

[jeheinz72]

Ugh. So much for actually letting vote analysis guide me down the path to victory.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, so let me type this through here...

This is going to be probably very long and highly convoluted (sp?), as usual.

Assumption - The wolf has figured out with a relatively high probability who the janitor is, or knew it from the start (because if I don't assume this I might be typing all day here...) Basically just ruling out the possibility that the wolf would accidentally kill his helper. Small enough chance that we should just discount it rather than consider it feasible.

Case A - We lynch RPI

1. He's the janitor. Wolf eats villager. 2 villagers left versus the wolf. 50/50 shot.

2. He's the wolf. Winnah.

3. He's a villager. Wolf eats villager. We're left with wolf/villager/janitor, win for the wolves via 2:1 lynch vote.

Case B - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being a wolf

1. Winnah.

Case C - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being the janitor

1. Wolf eats villager. RPI doesn't show. We're left with RPI/Wolf/Villager. 1:1 no lynch. Wolf eats one of the two, wolf win.

2. Wolf eats villager. RPI somehow shows. We're left with RPI/Wolf/Villager. Coin flip, though if RPI is alive and known to not be the janitor, I'd actually think we'd be about 75/25 to win that. Still, I'm not banking on RPI somehow showing up.

Case D - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being a villager

1. Wolf eats villager. We're RPI as janitor/Wolf/Villager. 1:1 no lynch, wolf win

2. Wolf eats villager. We're RPI as villager/Wolf/Janitor. 2:0 lynch of RPI, wolf win.

[jeheinz72]

So we either let it all ride lynching one of the three of you or we lynch RPI and have a presumed 50/50 shot come tomorrow. I like to think we should let it ride, but I just don't know.

Still thinking...

[jeheinz72]

Yeah, I think RPI is the safest play at this point

Vote RPI-fan

[DaddyTorgo]

lynching one of you (heinze/abe/chief) yields us a 33% chance at the wolf. waiting till tomorrow makes it 50/50.

THIS would be the time that I called for for lynching RPI. That's the play to make.

That being said - I think we need to begin to engage in serious discussion about who the wolf likely is among the 4 of us. I've been leaning Chief Rum for some time because of some of the analysis that has been done. However I'm also wary of the fact that it could be Abe, who has seemigly done a very good job of skating by most suspiscion without having much attention thrown his way. I suppose I could fathom a twist where heinze is the wolf, or heinze is the janitor and RPI is the wolf, but I've got to think that those are the lowest probability possibilities.

I understand that people may think that it is me. I don't think my voting record in this game has been amazing, but then again nobody's has. I have tried to provide analysis and spur discussion about different things. I've definately been unafraid to state a position and stick to it (for example on RPI) despite that getting me flack. Just my opinion, but that would hardly be the play of the last wolf, inviting scrutiny.

Here's a question - why wasn't heinze killed last night? Isn't he supposedly the most "cleared" person left? So it would be the obvious wolf-play to take him out and thus leave us with just 4 people who are pretty much uncleared. So why was he left alive and Jeff was eaten?

Think about that guys. Whoever the wolf is of the 4/5 of us left knows enough to make that play. Maybe you accuse me of trying to sow confusion and turn on me, but that just hit me as something very weird.

[jeheinz72]

Weren't you the one tossing around those theories about me before last night, while no one has really talked much of Jeff's possibilities at all this game?

And as far as my wolfiness, I think my play stands for itself. My story about RPI is 100% true, hell the Seer confirmed it. Danny was guarding me the night the lone wolf made the kill. Maybe Lathum didn't want to confirm my clearance for the sake of the game.

But still, we might as well see the plan all the way through. Sure, we could take a stab at CR, or Abe, or you, or me but I highly doubt any of us are all that comfortable putting one of us that much ahead of the other 3. So we're in effect giving ourselves a 25% chance today rather than a 50% chance tomorrow.

[DaddyTorgo]

Heinze - I'm still planning on voting RPI today (fact I should unvote and do that). Just trying to get everything out there so we can discuss and hopefully make the right choice.

[DaddyTorgo]

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM

VOTE RPI-FAN