The Trump Presidency - Chapter 2

[Edward64]

Not my guy but Americans have spoken. And this time, there is no doubt they understand who they were voting for.

I'm really interested in the post-mortem demographics - sex, age, ethnicity etc. Also, what is Joe thinking now?

And to add salt to the wound, Trump is winning the popular vote, GOP wins the Senate and currently leading 193-173 in the House. But I'm okay with any President getting the honeymoon in the first 2 years to enact policies that voters put him/her in there for.

Oh ... and also looks like Trumpism/MAGA will continue to be a force in 2028 and beyond.


See Chapter 1 here

The Trump Presidency – 2016 - Front Office Football Central

[Edward64]

My Chapter 2 hopes in no particular order

1. Secure the borders and reform immigration
2. Grow the economy & stock market
3. Reduce the deficit & stabilize the debt, fix Social Security/Medicare
4. Continue building & strengthening alliances in Asia, bring down the temperature in the region (e.g. Taiwan)
5. Resolve the Ukrainian & ME wars
6. Continue the Abraham accords progress and somehow, help/resolve the Iran issue
7. Invest/bring strategic capabilities/assets into the US or allies (e.g. building TSMC plants, rare earth metals, oil etc.). Continue building out EVs & infrastructure
8. Resolve the "culture wars"

Pretty optimistic about (1) (2), they're my 2 consolation prizes.

I don't think (3) will be resolved at all. Social Security/Medicare will be the 2028 guy. The later we address this, the more it'll cost. Deficit and debt ... utterly hopeless.

Somewhat optimistic about (4). Trump was first to acknowledge China as a real threat and not dance around the edges. But then, I can see Trump cutting a deal with China and then losing focus in the region/Taiwan.

For (5), feel bad for Ukraine but we gave it 3 years, spent $150-$200B (?) and you have your own buddies in the neighborhood. Won't taste good, but got to cut a deal, lose some of your territory, rebuild, move on, and aim to become part of EU/NATO later.

Am optimistic about (6) Abraham accords. The big one missing is Saudi Arabia and think Trump can make it happen, especially because of the Iranian threat. As far as how to deal with Iran, it comes down to carrot or stick and suspect it'll be a stick.

Somewhat optimistic about (7). Assume Musk will be playing a role with the EVs & infrastructure. The asshole will get richer but overall, the country wins long-term.

Not optimistic about (8), too many moving parts, too many strong differing opinions. Probably impossible. The needle will move some towards the right but the "war" will continue long after Trump is gone.

[Thomkal]

I will not be participating in this thread. Good luck America you are going to need it

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Pretty optimistic about (1) (2), they're my 2 consolation prizes.

.

Everything I have seen says his tariffs will be a disaster. His last term he ballooned the deficit by giving a massive tax cut to his rich buddies. Why are you optimistic?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Everything I have seen says his tariffs will be a disaster. His last term he ballooned the deficit by giving a massive tax cut to his rich buddies. Why are you optimistic?

I agree his tariffs, if implemented fully (e.g. 100% with China, 20% with everyone else), will be a disaster. But then, I don't believe it'll get to that point. He's using the bluster to negotiate, bully, intimidate etc. to get what he wants.

Bottom-line. He'll act in his own self interest. Sure, some segments may get screwed, other segments will get preference, but it's in his best interest to make sure the economy is humming and the markets are growing. He's thinking legacy now.

re: the debt & deficit. He'll kick the can down the road. Like I say, both sides ... utterly hopeless.

[Lathum]

I think we will be in a much worse place on the international stage than we were 4 years ago. I think leaving NATO is a bridge too far but he will use the threat of that to try and get what he wants.

I think the real danger is he is so easily manipulated, just look at how Harris played him over crowd size, that leaders like Xi, Putin, etc...are going to completely play him to get what they want.

[JPhillips]

Some legislative things I expect given complete GOP control.

Mifepristone ban(at least by mail, maybe total)
ACA repeal
CHIPS repeal
Permanent tax cuts
Some level of transgender ban
15 week abortion limit
Some sort of crypto insurance
Maybe a national property insurance plan to bail out FL

At the state level I'd be shocked if there aren't attempts to roll back gay marriage and birth control. May not succeed, but the right is going to try everything in the next two years.

[flere-imsaho]

Agreed with JPhillips list, would add state-level legislation to make voting significantly more difficult. Will depend on the state, but everything from removing early voting to requiring multiple forms of ID to routine & aggressive voter roll purges.

[Ksyrup]

Especially since the numbers tell a striking story - in 2020, when Covid made expanded voting options a necessity, Dems had 81M votes. The numbers we're seeing now are down nearly 20% in Dem voters. You can blame some, maybe even a lot, of it on the Dems and the candidate, but I think access played a pretty large role as well. Trump, by comparison, was down only about 3M votes, or less than 4%, from 2020.

[Lathum]

What do they benefit from removing the ACA and CHIPS act other than undoing Obama/Biden policies?

Tens of millions of their supporters benefit from these acts and I don't see them being so self sabotaging.

I absolutely think some states will repeal gay marriage and it will be an all out war on trans people.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

What do they benefit from removing the ACA and CHIPS act other than undoing Obama/Biden policies?

Tens of millions of their supporters benefit from these acts and I don't see them being so self sabotaging.

I absolutely think some states will repeal gay marriage and it will be an all out war on trans people.

Trump and Johnson have both said they are going to repeal these.

[HerRealName]

I recently gave a small amount of money to a former classmate who is on disability/Medicaid and had their car breakdown. She is celebrating over Trump on her gofundme page. I'm sure things will great for them now.

[JPhillips]

Mayor Adams is going to go hard Trump as a way to get the FBI off his back.

And it will probably work.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Everything I have seen says his tariffs will be a disaster.

He's probably already forgotten about the tariffs.

[NobodyHere]

What are the odds that JD Vance becomes president before 2029?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump and Johnson have both said they are going to repeal these.

Johnson walked it back almost immediately regarding the ACA

[Kodos]

Pretty decent. Although they let Reagan continue despite being mentally diminished at the end.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Johnson walked it back almost immediately regarding the ACA

Of course, that was before the election. It may look more palatable to him now.

[PilotMan]

If anything fails, there will be a scapegoat, and that scapegoat will pay.



There is no truthier truth than this.




Welcome to the new world of American White Supremacy.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Of course, that was before the election. It may look more palatable to him now.

Maybe I am naively optimistic but I don't think they take away health care for 40 million people a lot of whom are members of their party. Trump may not care but I would imagine a lot of lawmakers wouldn't be on board with it.

[PilotMan]

Why not? It's borne of the devil, it must be exorcised. These people need to get their shit together and get off the backs of us real americans who don't want to pay for their 'cancer'.

[PilotMan]

So I'm thinking we give NASA to Musk and then he can be "President of Space"? Anything is possible in the new world.

[PilotMan]

I for one, will be happy to see the end of multi-ethnic commercials. We need some more whites up in there, and get back to what's really important.

[Ksyrup]

Heh, I texted my boss this morning that I thought I was out of "floating holidays" (we give 9 holidays off and another discretionary 5 "floating holidays" in addition to PTO), so I was going to take a "drowning holiday" today. He thought I was serious.

I called him around 10:30 when I hadn't heard from him, and he had told everyone in the office not to bother me today.

I mean, I ain't some fuckin' snowflake who thinks stupid shit like mental health is real. What a dick!

Was that response MAGA enough? I want to make sure I assimilate properly beyond being a 50+ white male.

[dubb93]

I really don’t know how an ACA repeal would look for me. I assume I’d just not have health insurance and need to find a new job or likely career that offers it. My current job decided that funding their own healthcare plan was too expensive so they give us a stipend to spend on the exchange. It does cover the entire premium for my family plan but without a mandate to provide insurance and no exchange in place I’m sure they would just stop supplying insurance. Ironically, this is a fairly large healthcare system that I work for.

[dubb93]

I’m also trying to figure out how a closure of the Department of Education is going to impact my middle son’s IEP and access to his speech therapist. Best I can tell no Department of Education no funding for either.

Isn’t it just a great Wednesday?

[kingfc22]

It's clear the GOP has the under educated in the bag. They want to continue to ensure it stays that way.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I really don’t know how an ACA repeal would look for me. I assume I’d just not have health insurance and need to find a new job or likely career that offers it. My current job decided that funding their own healthcare plan was too expensive so they give us a stipend to spend on the exchange. It does cover the entire premium for my family plan but without a mandate to provide insurance and no exchange in place I’m sure they would just stop supplying insurance. Ironically, this is a fairly large healthcare system that I work for.

I thought the mandate was dead already. Or did Biden manage to bring it back?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I’m also trying to figure out how a closure of the Department of Education is going to impact my middle son’s IEP and access to his speech therapist. Best I can tell no Department of Education no funding for either.

Isn’t it just a great Wednesday?

I would assume they throw it to the states and the red states will get dumber and the blue states can decide if they want to spend the money

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I thought the mandate was dead already. Or did Biden manage to bring it back?

Mandate was the wrong term. I’m talking about the requirement of employers to supply health insurance to their employees if they have over a certain amount of employees.

[Lathum]

How much of Europe does Russia control in 2028?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Maybe I am naively optimistic but I don't think they take away health care for 40 million people a lot of whom are members of their party. Trump may not care but I would imagine a lot of lawmakers wouldn't be on board with it.

It'll be like NAFTA. Some half cocked change to the existing law that doesn't change much but gives him something to claim he fixed and rename.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Some legislative things I expect given complete GOP control.

Mifepristone ban(at least by mail, maybe total)
ACA repeal
CHIPS repeal
Permanent tax cuts
Some level of transgender ban
15 week abortion limit
Some sort of crypto insurance
Maybe a national property insurance plan to bail out FL

At the state level I'd be shocked if there aren't attempts to roll back gay marriage and birth control. May not succeed, but the right is going to try everything in the next two years.

Crypto bailout is coming. The guy who "backs" tether is going to be the news Treasury Secretary and he's been basically running a ponzi scheme for years and needs an out bad.

[Lathum]

We’re gonna have Loomer as press secretary, aren’t we?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

So I'm thinking we give NASA to Musk and then he can be "President of Space"? Anything is possible in the new world.

You know what my real expectation is? Trump is going to fuck both him and Robert Kennedy over. Probably Kennedy first, but it is just a matter of time before Musk clashes with Trump's ego and he will be done.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It'll be like NAFTA. Some half cocked change to the existing law that doesn't change much but gives him something to claim he fixed and rename.

Trump-care! Cost more, covers less, all fixed.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

We’re gonna have Loomer as press secretary, aren’t we?

And Marjorie Taylor Greene as Director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

And Marjorie Taylor Greene as Director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Actually I believe that agency is in the chopping block, because who needs advance warnings of hurricanes.

[Brian Swartz]

No kidding. We'll just drop nuclear weapons on them and/or draw in the path of the storm in official presidential broadcasts instead of relying on the projections of the professionals.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

So I'm thinking we give NASA to Musk and then he can be "President of Space"? Anything is possible in the new world.

Trump should man up on his immigration policy, tell Musk to stop eating cats and dogs and send him back to Africa.

[Arles]

Some things I expect given his main supporters and rhetoric:
1. "The Dana White Rule": If a bill is deadlocked 50/50 in the senate, each side gets to nominate a senator to fight in a cage match. Whomever wins gets their side passed.
2. I expect Trump to have Vince McMahon host all the government sexual harassment videos.
3. All White House and staff communication will be Twitter only with Elon Musk as his Chief of Staff.
4. Trump will pass a law to mandate an "old country out-house" style bathroom that all Trans people are forced to use in public buildings.
5. He will thank all the Latinos for their votes as he proceeds to deport all their parents and grandparents.

Should be a fun four years

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Arles

1. "The Dana White Rule": If a bill is deadlocked 50/50 in the senate, each side gets to nominate a senator to fight in a cage match. Whomever wins gets their side passed.

To be fair, this is objectively preferable to the filibuster.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Johnson walked it back almost immediately regarding the ACA

It's a part of Project 2025 and a lot of that is going to be on the table with a fully GOP government.

edit: It took generations, a historic Dem election, and all of Obama's political capital to make the ACA happen. The GOP can kill it and be reasonably sure nothing will take it's place for twenty years even if people are initially pissed.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How much of Europe does Russia control in 2028?

Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine. Possibly some of the Baltics.

Regarding [MAGA] legacy, I almost wonder as much about the natural-born citizen presidential requirement as the third term thing.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's a part of Project 2025 and a lot of that is going to be on the table with a fully GOP government.

edit: It took generations, a historic Dem election, and all of Obama's political capital to make the ACA happen. The GOP can kill it and be reasonably sure nothing will take it's place for twenty years even if people are initially pissed.

They will repeal it and blame the Dems for it. They always seem to pull that off somehow.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Everything I have seen says his tariffs will be a disaster. His last term he ballooned the deficit by giving a massive tax cut to his rich buddies. Why are you optimistic?

I don't understand the anger over tariffs. Biden kept Trump's and even expanded on it. There's a reason you can't buy a cheap EV in this country like you can in the rest of the world.

Don't get me wrong, I think they'll be bad, but I also thought they were bad when Biden did it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Trump-care! Cost more, covers less, all fixed.

I can't wait until Trump replaces all food stamps with McDonalds coupons.

[PilotMan]

Food stamps will be those things you get while playing the new Monopoly at McDs game.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I can't wait until Trump replaces all food stamps with McDonalds coupons.

Halfway there already. I keep the BK & Wendy coupons that come in the mail. There are some pretty good deals with 2 or family packs.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't understand the anger over tariffs. Biden kept Trump's and even expanded on it. There's a reason you can't buy a cheap EV in this country like you can in the rest of the world.

Don't get me wrong, I think they'll be bad, but I also thought they were bad when Biden did it.

He literally said he wants to replace all income tax with tariffs. Fucking great for someone like me but it would completely be a regressive tax on the lower and middle class.

How is it going to work out if he deports all the cheap labor while slapping a 20% tariff on imported goods from Mexico?