Fantasy Football Basics by Vince Cressio>>
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The True Basics
In Fantasy Football, you own a team among a group of 8-12 owners. Each owner fields a team of players from the NFL, and each team earns points based upon how their players do in real life for each week. Since there is only one Jerry Rice in real life, there is only one Jerry Rice in our fantasy football league. Therefore, there will be a draft to allocate the players to our teams.
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The draft works as follows: randomly a draft order is chosen. Once draft order is determined, we prepare for a few minutes, and then the first team is put ‘On The Clock.’ They then have 3 minutes to select a player. Once they have picked a player, that player is on their team, and no other team can draft that player. Also, once they pick, the next team is ‘On The Clock’ for the next three minutes. If a team does not submit its pick within the allotted time, they are skipped, and it is the next team’s turn. At this point, they can make their pick at any time, but the teams following the team that was skipped no longer have to wait for them to make a decision. The draft continues in this fashion until everyone has made one pick, and the first round is over. Once this happens, whoever had the last pick in the first round now gets the first pick in the second round, and the second round continues in reverse order. Therefore although it is nice to have the first pick in the draft, there are many picks between that and your next pick. Once the second round is over, the draft order reverses again, so the team who had the first overall pick gets two picks in a row. The draft continues in this manner until the end of round 14, when all roster slots are full.
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At this point, your roster will be set. However, that does not mean that your roster is set in stone. You can Add Players, Drop Players, or Trade Players. The only restriction to your roster is that
you can have no more than 14 players on the roster at any time.
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How to Add Players: To add a player, you simply go to the “Available Players” page from our Yahoo League, and then find the player you wish to add. He will either be a Free Agent or on Waivers (see below for a description of the Waiver process). If your roster is already full (with 14 players), you will be asked to drop a player to make room for the new player. Do so, and you will have your new player.
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How to Trade Players: To trade a player, talk to one of your esteemed colleagues in the league about the trade. Reach an agreement regarding who will be receiving which players. Then you use the yahoo league trade menu to submit the trade. The trade will go under league scrutiny for two days. If the rest of the league decides that it is a fair trade and the two teams aren’t trying to cheat, the trade will go through as is. Remember that in trades the roster limitations are in full effect…you can never have more than 14 players on your team.
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Since there will only be 10-12 teams in our league, and only 14 players per team, that means only 140-164 players will be selected. Since there are more players than that in the NFL, the remaining players will be put on Waivers for two days.
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How Waivers Work: A player on waivers is available for any team to claim; however they remain on waivers for two days. Waiver claims are private, so unless a team wants to announce their intent to claim a player, there is no way to tell if anyone else wants the player. At the end of the two-day waiver period, the player is awarded to the team that claimed him. However, if multiple teams claim him, the team with the higher waiver priority gets the player. Waiver priority is set according to the reverse of the draft order. So the team who had the last pick in the first round gets the top waiver priority. Once a player is claimed off of waivers by a team, that team’s waiver priority is reset to the lowest priority, and everyone else slides up one slot.
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How the League Works: Each week, your team will play one other team in the league. Your 8 starters will be pitted against their 8 starters, and whichever team gets more total points gets a win; if the points are exactly even, a tie is declared.
Bench players get you no points. If you have Deuce McAllister on your bench and he gets 32 points,
it doesn’t matter because he wasn’t starting. For this reason, pay attention to real NFL teams’ bye weeks (weeks they don’t play) and injuries…don’t leave a player that isn’t playing in real life in your fantasy starting rotation; you won’t get any points for him at all, and even a crappy back-up player will get you more than 0 points most of the time.
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At the end of NFL week 13, the Fantasy Football Playoffs start. The 4 teams with the best records in the league advance into the Semi-Finals. They are given an opponent, whom they play for
2 consecutive weeks, during the NFL’s week 14 and 15. The winners of these games play for the Championship during the NFL’s week 16 and 17. The 6 teams that did not make the playoffs play a similar single elimination style tournament for the consolation prizes (5
th through 10
th place).
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Ok, now that you know the basics of Fantasy Football, here’s a good starting point for the draft a week from Sunday:
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For Starters: The Drafter’s Bible>>
http://games.espn.go.com/cgi/ffl/req...am1=6&Param2=0
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This link is my personal favorite resource for any fantasy football draft. ESPN charges ~$30 per team, and so the people who play ESPN fantasy games usually know what they are doing. This page shows the average drafted position of each player (AP…for example, if in 10 drafts, Ricky Williams goes first 7 times, second twice and fifth once, his average is 1.60), giving you a fair idea of when he will be or should be picked for your team. In my opinion, if you follow this list religiously, picking the highest available player each round (which I do not recommend…what’s the fun in that anyways), you would end up with a pretty decent team. The page is pretty self-explanatory…here are some of the harder to understand concepts:
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7DAY – This is the seven-day trend of the athlete…red numbers mean they are falling (not being drafted as high), while green numbers mean they are rising.
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PCT – This is the percentage of ESPN leagues in which the player was drafted. For the majority of early players, they are all 100.0. This means that in every single ESPN draft, the player was selected. For someone like Anthony Thomas (RB, Chicago), however, he has a 99.7. This means that in .3% of ESPN leagues, Thomas was not even drafted. This number is usually only useful if you see some unnamed player (i.e. Tim Hasselbeck, QB Philadelphia) high on the charts. Noticing his 0.1%, that means that he was only drafted by 0.1% of leagues (someone in his family must play fantasy sports).
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So this link is a good guideline…here are some strategies on drafting a good team.
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Picking a Player:>>
So you’re drafting, and it is now your pick…who to choose? How to pick that person? What position? Why that guy rather than some other guy? Here are some guidelines as to how you can evaluate a player’s talent.
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Some people enter the draft with a set plan to draft by position: Round 1 is an RB, 2 is a QB, 3 is a WR, etc. The problem that I have with this mindset is that the draft is impossible to predict…what if one of the best running backs in the game gets overlooked and falls to your second pick? What if by the time your third pick rolls around all of the good WRs are gone, but there are some decent RBs left over? When I enter a draft, I like to blend the philosophy of picking the best available player, and filling in my roster slots. To start with, here is the roster we have to fill up in the draft:
Starters:>>
QB - Quarterback
RB – Running Back
RB/WR – Running Back OR Wide Receiver
WR – Wide Receiver
WR – Wide Receiver
TE – Tight End
K - Kicker
D – Defense
Bench – 6 slots that can be filled with any type of player…you could have 6 RBs here, or a nice mix of back-ups for your team.
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Generally speaking, you want to pick the best available player at a position you still need. So if you have 2 RBs already, it’s usually not a great idea to pick another RB when there’s a good QB or WR available. These are my basic tenets for a good draft (and these are strictly opinions…it’s totally possible to ignore these completely and have a good team…but I’ve been pretty successful in fantasy football in the past using these strategies):
1)Draft an RB or QB in the first round. WRs are too inconsistent to merit such a high pick, even
lace w:st="on">Harrisonlace>, Owens or Moss (the holy trinity of WRs)
2)Unless you are already unbelievably set at QB, RB and WR (that is you have solid starters AND backups at each position), don’t pick a Kicker or Defense until at least round 7. It is nearly impossible to tell how good a kicker is going to do in the preseason, so wasting a high pick on a guy that might not end up in the top ten among kickers is futile. Also, the best defense is probably only going to get you 10 points a week, so it’s not a tremendous advantage to have a really good Defense.
3)Pay attention to injuries. A good thing to know is that Michael Vick broke his leg last week, and will be out for at least 6 weeks. That means he’s going to miss the first 4 games of the season at least. This makes him worth a little less than normal, so value him accordingly.
4)Unless you can get Tony Gonzalez, Todd Heap or Jeremy Shockey, don’t pick a TE until your last three rounds.
5)Don’t worry about picking up a back-up kicker, tight end, or defense in the draft.
6)Don’t worry about filling in your entire roster before drafting for your bench. It’s really nice to have a solid backup at QB, RB and WR, and since K, TE and D aren’t so important, you can put off picking them and land solid backups at the key positions in the middle rounds (5-7).
I can’t stress enough that these are
guidelines that I use, not hardcore rules. Like I mentioned earlier, drafts are unpredictable, and I can almost guarantee you that I will violate one of these rules during our draft. If you don’t feel right about a move, aren’t sure, or just plain don’t like the player that you decide upon using these guidelines, don’t pick him. Hunches are sometimes the difference between a good and great season.
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So how do you tell if a player is good?
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-Last year’s stats
oThis is the main way that people assess talent; what’d they do last year? Usually it’s a good way to tell how they will do this year, but there are other things to consider…
-Injury History
oIs this player always on the disabled list (DL)? Did he have surgery recently? Usually players who are coming back from injury play much worse than normal at first, as it takes them some time to get readjusted to normal play. Fred Taylor (RB, Jacksonville) is an example of a player who is known for his injury history, while Priest Holmes (RB, Kansas City) and David Boston (WR, San Diego) are good examples of players who are coming off a major surgery and could play poorly as a result of it.
-How good is his team?
oIf a player plays for a better team, then he’s more likely to score you points.
-Changes from last season
oHas this player been traded since last year? Is he in a better or worse place? A good example of this would be WR David Boston, who went from the woefully pathetic Arizona Cardinals to the Playoff contending San Diego Chargers. Based solely upon the fact that
San Diego has a better offense,
Boston should produce more than he has in
Arizona (but a caveat is
lace w:st="on">Bostonlace>’s injury history, as mentioned above).
These are the basic methods of determining a player’s worth. Below are some more advanced means that take a little research…
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-How well does the player fit in to his team’s style of play?
oIf a player plays for a better team, he is more likely to succeed and score you more points. However, a more crucial question is how does he fit into the team’s offense? The Oakland Raiders are a passing team, so even though Charlie Garner is a great RB, his numbers aren’t as good as they could be because
lace w:st="on">Oaklandlace> passes the ball much more than they run the ball. The Miami Dolphins, however, use a running-heavy offense, making RB Ricky Williams a much more valuable pick. Another thing to notice is what is the team’s strength? Though the Buccaneers were the most successful team in the NFL last year, their offensive players weren’t found on many fantasy rosters, because their offense was relatively weak. On the other hand, Minnesota Vikings offensive players were some of the better fantasy producers even though the team went nowhere because they are an offensive oriented team.
-Stats over the last three years
oThis is a better way to get a feel for a player, but it takes some more doing. This way you can find trends and see if last year was just a slump or if it was a continuing trend.
-How old is he?
oRookies tend to be a crapshoot…no one knows how they will perform. Aging veterans are tough to call…Rich Gannon (QB,
lace w:st="on">Oaklandlace>) was one of the best QBs last year and he was 36. Another thing to note is what is known as the ‘Sophomore Slump.’ Rookies that performed well the season before tend to play much worse in their second year, and the phrase Sophomore Slump was coined for that scenario. This is hardly a science, though, as some players have continued to play extraordinarily well throughout their career.
-What division does he play in?
oEach team is in a League (AFC or NFC) and a division (North, South, East, West). Some are filled with ridiculously good teams (the AFC West is highly regarded as the toughest division in any sport), while others are notorious for being weak (Conversely the NFC West is a fairly weak division). NFL Teams play their division rivals twice, while playing other teams only once. Therefore a team in a weak division has an advantage by playing weak teams more often. For this reason, sometimes picking a guy that plays on a good team in a weak division can be a help.
-Positional Scarcity
oThis idea is easiest to illustrate using the Tight End position. There are 3 good Tight Ends. The rest suck. Therefore even though the best Tight End will only get you between 8-12 points per week on average, he’s worth more than a second or third tier RB that will get you ‘only’ 10-15 points per week. Because there aren’t as many good tight ends, it’s good to have one of the best ones, and it makes them more valuable. This is why the top three Tight Ends tend to go between rounds 3 and 5 in drafts. If you can pick up Todd Heap (TE) in the 4
th round, and then get Onterrio Smith (RB Min) in the 5
th, and your opponent gets William Green (RB Cle) in the 4
th round and TE Randy McMichael later in the draft, he’ll have picked up Green, who will get him more points that Heap will for you, in the same round. However, if you start the both of them, and Heap averages 8 more points than McMichael, while Smith averages only 3 points less than Green (a very likely scenario), you’re picking up 5 points per week there. This is a tough concept to illustrate...sorry if I’m not being clear.
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Ok, now here’s how I rate each position and what they do:
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Positional Importance:>>
1)Running Back
2)Quarterback
3)Wide Receiver
4)Tight End, Kicker, Defense
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1) Running Backs (RB) - >>
Running Backs are the heart and soul of any fantasy sports team. In real football, each team has one starting Running Back (also known as the tailback or halfback), and he will be responsible for 80% of that team’s rushing yards for every game (in most circumstances). Compare this to the Wide Receiver position, where each team starts 2 wide receivers, and uses a third quite often, and it is easy to see why Wide Receivers are very inconsistent. Since each team relies rather heavily on their running back, the good running backs are the most consistent fantasy players, and are usually drafted first in most fantasy drafts. Another reason RBs are more consistent than other players is because of the time keeping in the NFL. The clock keeps running on the end of a running play, so if a team is ahead late in the game they will usually continually run the ball, gaining the RB more yards, and you, the fantasy owner, more points.
A running back will get you 1 point for every 10 rushing yards or receiving yards, and 6 points for every touchdown (unless in a random gimmick play he throws the touchdown, then he only gets 4 points…but that’s extremely rare). As a caveat, he also gets you –2 points for every fumble (and along the gimmick play lines, -2 for an INT). Fumbles are rare (even 2002 leading fumbler QB Daunte Culpepper had only 9, barely over 0.5 per game), so the RB usually does not have penalties like a Quarterback does with the more commonplace interception, making RBs more consistent than QBs. Your roster has one RB slot, and one RB/WR slot that is flexible and can be filled with either a Running Back or Wide Receiver. Usually, since they score more points more consistently, you want to start 2 RBs per week, which is why it is important to draft two good RBs within the first 4 rounds. An example of the scoring on a running back:
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Priest Holmes 112 yards rushing 2 TDs 39 yards receiving 1 fumble
Priest would get 11 points for the rushing yards, 12 for the TDs, 3 for the receiving yards and –2 for the fumble, good for 24 points and an amazing week.
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You should expect 15-20 points per week from your #1 running back, and 10-20 points from your #2 running back. If you are getting less than this, you should probably look for an upgrade at RB.
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Advanced things to consider when choosing running backs:
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A) Is the RB a strictly running RB, or does he catch passes?
Ricky Williams (Miami) might have run for 1,853 yards last season, over 200 more than Priest Holmes’ 1,615 (Kansas City), however Holmes also had 672 receiving yards compared to Williams’ 363. RBs known for their ability to catch as well as run:
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Marshall Faulk (
lace w:st="on">St. Louislace>)
Priest Holmes (
lace w:st="on">Kansas Citylace>)
Tiki Barber (NY Giants)
Charlie Garner (
lace w:st="on">Oaklandlace>)
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These guys have their value slightly inflated because of their flexibility. If you are in the draft, and you have two RBs to choose from that you like, I’d say this is a very good indication of which to pick.
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B) How injury prone is the player?
This is something that I note in the general player selection portion, but it’s especially true of Running Backs and Quarterbacks. They carry the ball 10-30 times per game, and are in to block on almost every other play. This is a tremendous strain, and can lead to injuries in weaker players.
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C) How good is the team’s offensive line?
The offensive line is the key to how well a running back will perform. As great as a running back may be, he ain’t going anywhere if no one will block for him. This is a very difficult thing to determine (there aren’t many stats for blockers), but some teams are known for their solid offensive lines, most notably the Denver Broncos. An offensive line is made up of the following: Two tackles, placed on the outside edge of the line (LT, RT), Two Guards (RG, LG), and one Center (the guy that snaps the ball). A team that has changed its offensive line from the last season is more likely to have a weaker offensive line, due to a lack of cohesion.
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Though the ESPN list I showed is usually a good indication, here are the top 10 running backs according to me:
1)Ricky Williams,
lace w:st="on">
Miamilace>
(Ed. Note – 222 Points)
2)LaDanian Tomlinson,
lace w:st="on">
San Diegolace>
(Ed. Note – 338 Points)
3)Marshall Faulk,
lace w:st="on">
St. Louislace>
(Ed. Note – 176 Points)
4)Shaun Alexander, Seattle
(Ed. Note – 270 Points)
5)
Clinton Portis,
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Denverlace>
(Ed. Note – 280 Points)
6)Priest
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Holmes,
Kansaslace> City
(Ed. Note – 371 Points)
7)Deuce McAllister,
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New Orleanslace>
(Ed. Note – 249 Points)
8)Edgerrin James,
lace w:st="on">
Indianapolislace>
(Ed. Note – 214 Points)
9)Travis Henry,
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Buffalolace>
(Ed. Note – 210 Points)
10) Eddie George,
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Tennesseelace>
(Ed. Note – 149 Points)
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Ed. Note -- Notable Omissions:>>
1) Jamal Lewis 306 Points>>
2) Ahman Green 334 Points>>
3) Fred Taylor 228 Points>>
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2) Quarterbacks (QB) –>>
Running a close second to the RB, Quarterbacks are also consistently
lace w:st="on">high pointlace> getters in fantasy football. Similarly to RB, NFL teams have only one QB who will be playing, unless he gets injured. The only reason QBs aren’t as important as RBs is because passing in the NFL is not nearly as consistent as running, and interceptions, which usually happen at least once every other game, are good for –2 points against your QB. It’s also much easier for an opposing defense to shut down the passing game than the rushing game, and late in a game if a team is ahead they will stop throwing the ball completely in an effort to run out the clock.
Quarterbacks will get you 1 point for every 25 yards passing and 4 points for every passing touchdown. However, similarly to RBs, they will also get you 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6 points for every rushing touchdown. Because of these rushing stats, QBs who run the ball (McNabb, Vick, Culpepper) are VASTLY more valuable than similar or better QBs who only throw the ball (Favre, Gannon).
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Scoring example:
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Brett Favre 215 yards passing 2/1 TDs/INTs 12 yards rushing
Favre would get 8 points for the passing yards, 8 points for the TDs, 1 for the Rushing Yards, and –2 for the INT (interception), totaling 15 points and a mediocre outing.
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How to further analyze a QB –
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A) Playing style: Pocket Passer or Scrambler?
This is really one of the only questions to weed out different QBs.
Scramblers: Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, McNair
These guys will get you rushing yards consistently every week, and will probably add a TD or two rushing every couple of weeks.
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Tweeners: Garcia, Brooks
These guys can run, and do so every once in a while, but aren’t as known for it as the Scramblers.
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Pocket Passers: Warner, Manning, Favre, Bledsoe
These guys aren’t going anywhere.
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B) Turnovers (Interceptions and Fumbles)
A good indication of a good QB is his Touchdown to Interception ratio. Having anything near a 1:1 ratio is horrible…also paying attention to fumbles is important as well. Daunte Culpepper fumbled more than anyone else last year, and it hurt his production.
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You should be expecting anywhere from 13-20 points per week from your QB. If you pick one of the top 5 QBs, expect closer to 20 points per game, while the lower tier QBs could range from 13-20 points per game. If you aren’t getting more than 15 points per game from your QB, you either have one of the worst QBs that deserves to be starting on a fantasy football team, or you need to improve your QB.
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My Top 5 Quarterbacks –
1)McNabb
(Ed. Note – 217 Fantasy Points)
2)Vick
(Ed. Note – 62 Fantasy Points…ouch)
3)Culpepper
(Ed. Note – 271 Fantasy Points)
4)Manning
(Ed. Note – 266 Fantasy Points)
5)Garcia
(Ed. Note – 221 Fantasy Points)
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Ed. Note -- Notable Omissions:>>
1) Steve McNair – 235 points>>
2) Trent Green – 251 points>>
3) Matt Hasselbeck – 249 points>>
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3) Wide Receivers (WR) –>>
Wide Receivers are the wildcards on your team…every once in a while they will bust out with a huge game and help you win the week with ease, but on other occasions they will get one catch for 12 yards and frustrate the hell out of you. By the rules of the NFL, you are only allowed 11 players on the field at one time. 5 of those players are offensive linemen and one is the quarterback. They are allowed to field the other 5 players however they want. The standard NFL set includes two running backs (Fullback, who blocks mainly, and a Halfback, who is the typical running back), one Tight End and two Wide Recievers. They can range, however, from a pass happy 5 Wide Receiver set, to 2 Tight Ends and 3 Running Backs for short yardage situations (Tight Ends and Fullbacks are traditionally good blockers).
Wide receivers are inconsistent because of a few reasons. First, the Quarterback usually has 3 or more options on any passing play (WR 1, WR 2, TE, possibly RB and FB), therefore a passing play isn’t guaranteed to go to the wide receiver, while running plays are practically guaranteed to go to the running back. Another reason WRs are so inconsistent is that if a team knows that they are playing against a good WR (Terrell Owens, for instance), they can assign multiple defenders to ‘cover’ that wide receiver, making it more difficult for the Quarterback to get the pass to the WR, or forcing him to throw to a different wide receiver altogether. Yet a final reason, as has been mentioned before...late in a game, teams do not pass if they are ahead because an incomplete pass causes the clock to stop.
Wide Receivers are arranged in a hierarchy on each team. A typical NFL team has from 5-8 WRs on its roster, and usually only the first two are worthy of fantasy mention. While a #1 WR on any NFL team is usually going to find itself on a fantasy team (there are 32 teams in the NFL, therefore 32 #1 WRs. With 10 or 12 teams, and more than likely at least 3 WRs per team, that’s at least 30-36 WRs owned in our fantasy league), only some of the #2 WRs and even fewer of the #3 WRs will find themselves on a fantasy team. The way to evaluate a WR is threefold...
1)What position is he on the depth chart?
a.If he is a #1 Wide Receiver, that’s good. If he is a #2 that’s not too bad. If he is a #3 Wide Receiver, he better be on the Rams (the Rams are notorious for having a great offense...they are ‘The Greatest Show on Turf’) or be primed to move up on the depth chart soon.
2)Who is throwing the ball to him?
a.Terry Glenn might be a very good WR, but since he plays for the Cowboys, his offense and Quarterback are absolutely terrible. Therefore he’s not a very good fantasy receiver. If the Quarterback can’t get the wide receiver the ball then the WR is not worth as much as his talent demands.
3)How good is his team, and what style is their offense?
a.This relates to the Quarterback idea, because a team with a shitty QB is less likely to throw anyways...but if he’s on the Dolphins, for example, they like to run the ball much more than pass the ball, so their WRs aren’t as valuable. Also, as stated before: teams run the ball with a lead late in the game. The converse is true as well...teams pass the ball when behind late in the game for two reasons, first, an incompletion stops the clock and saves them valuable game time. Second, Passing is an easier way to get more yards quicker than running. This can sometimes make WRs (and QBs, for that matter...but INTs suck and happen more often the more you throw) on really shitty teams (like the Lions and Bengals) worth more.
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Advanced ways to judge WRs:
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A) Determine an offense’s ability to attain single coverage for their wide receivers. If a good wide receiver is in single coverage (that is, only one defender on him), the general assumption gives the advantage to the WR. Once multiple defenders are on a single WR, the balance shifts to the defense. Ways to determine whether or not a team will be able to double or triple cover the WR: Like offense, defenses are only allowed to have 11 people on the field at once. Typically, a defense has some combination of 7 Defensive Linemen and Linebackers, people that aren’t interested in pass coverage. The main defenders who take part in pass defense are the Defensive Backs, typically 2 Cornerbacks and 2 Safeties. With 4 guys for pass defense and usually only 3 receivers (2 WR and a TE), unless the offense can decoy the extra safety out of pass coverage, one of the receivers will be double-covered.
Way #1 -If the Offense has a good running game or a mobile quarterback, the defense might move a safety up to help defend against the run, or they might even put in an extra Linebacker or Defensive Lineman. A good example of this is the New Orleans Saints. Deuce McAllister, their RB, is very good, and Aaron Brooks, their QB is quite mobile. There will usually be at least one defender committed to stopping the run, and another defender ‘Spying’ on Brooks to make sure he doesn’t run the ball (if there are no receivers open, the QB can run the ball even on a passing play). This will ‘open up’ the passing game and make it easier for receivers to get open and passes to be completed.
Way #2 – If the offense has more than one talented wide receiver (or a pass catching RB or TE), the defense will be less inclined to devote multiple players to the #1 receiver because then the #2 WR will be able to easily get single coverage and get open. A good example of teams like this are the Raiders (Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Terry Porter and Charlie Garner are ALL threats on passing plays) and the Rams (Holt, Bruce and Faulk are all excellent options).
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A top flight WR will get you from 8-15 points per week, and every once in a while will jump up and have a huge game for 18+ points. A mid tier WR is good for 6-10 points per week, and a WR that needs to be replaced gets less than 6 points per game.
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My top 20 WRs:
1)Owens (SF)
(Ed. Note – 146)
2)Harrison (
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Indlace>)
(Ed. Note – 183)
3)Moss (Min)
(Ed. Note – 263)
4)Moulds (Buf)
(Ed. Note – 84)
5)
lace w:st="on">
Bostonlace> (SD)
(Ed. Note – 126)
6)Burress (Pit)
(Ed. Note – 118)
7)Holt (St.L)
(Ed. Note – 241)
8)Robinson (Sea)
(Ed. Note – 111)
9)Smith (Den)
(Ed. Note – 108)
10)Toomer (NYG)
(Ed. Note – 135)
11)Driver (GB)
(Ed. Note – 74)
12)Horn (NO)
(Ed. Note – 157)
13)Johnson (Cin)
(Ed. Note – 195)>>
14)Ward (Pit)
(Ed. Note – 176)
15)Price (Atl)
(Ed. Note – 101)
16)Bruce (StL)
(Ed. Note – 128)
17)Rice (Oak)
(Ed. Note – 98)
18)Mason (Ten)
(Ed. Note – 178)
19)Rogers (Det)
(Ed. Note – 42)
20)Streets (SF)
(Ed. Note – 101)
21)Gardner/Coles (Was)**
(Ed. Note – 90/156)
** I list these two because I think one of them will be outstanding this year...but I don’t know which one. It’s risky to pick them because they have a mediocre (at best) QB and offense behind them...but their coach Spurrier likes to run what is called the ‘Fun ‘n Gun,’ a pass happy offense that could be the #1 offense in the league if implemented correctly.
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Ed. Note – Notable Omissions:>>
1) Anquan Boldin 179>>
2) Keenan McCardell 161>>
3) Darrell Jackson 165>>
4) Steve Smith 157>>
5) Andre Johnson 121>>
6) Chris Chambers 162>>
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4) Tight End (TE) ->>
Tight end is a difficult position...you are more than likely only rarely going to get more than 10 points out of him, and oftentimes will get from 0-3. They are usually run blockers, and only a select few of them actually make a fantasy impact. However, getting the right TE can be enough of a boost to push your team over the opponent...getting 8 or 10 points out of your TE slot can be huge in a close game.
In fantasy football, Tight Ends have a ‘Holy Trinity’ similar to that of WRs. Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap are leaps and bounds better than any of their compatriot Tight Ends, and unless you can grab one of these three, I wouldn’t recommend you pick one until the last three rounds of the draft. My reason being that while Heap, Gonzalez or Shockey are a guarantee for around 8-10 points a game, anyone else is probably only going to get you 3-5 points per game. The difference between Billy Miller and Chad Lewis is so minimal that you can afford to not care about your TE slot until way late in the draft, using the earlier picks to get solid backup WRs or RBs.
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I’m not good with Tight Ends, and since the difference between the mediocre and the bad ones is so insignificant, unless you can get one of the top three in rounds 4-6 of the draft, I’d say just pick one at random near the end of the draft.
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If you get a top TE, expect about 8-10 points per week...otherwise be happy if you get more than 3.
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5) Kickers (K) -
Kickers are similar to the TE position, in that they are for the most part a crapshoot. However, they don’t have a clear cut top set of kickers, so it’s even more of a crapshoot. Usually, the better the team, the better the kicker (more scoring opportunities), but that doesn’t always hold true. I don’t know much about scouting kickers, and I usually wait until the second to last or last round to pick one. Here’s how the scoring breaks down on kickers:
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Made Field Goal: 3 points
Made Field Goal of 40+ Yards: 4 points
Made Field Goal of 50+ Yards: 5 points
Made Extra Point: 1 point
Because of this, sometimes people value kickers who kick the ball very far (
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Also, if a kicker is involved in a fake and gains rushing yards, passing yards or touchdowns, you gain the same points as if an RB or WR or QB had done the same thing.
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Kickers are good for approximately 7 points a game...good kickers might get into double digits, and bad kickers get less than 7.
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6) Defense (D) ->>
In Fantasy Football, you use a team’s defense as your defense. You gain points for interceptions, fumble recoveries, safeties and sacks, as well as a point bonus based upon how many points the other team scores. Here is the rundown:
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0 points allowed: 10 points
1-6 allowed: 7 points
7-13: 4
14-20: 1
21-27: 0
28-34: -1
35+: -4
Sack 1
Interception 2
Fumble Recovery 2
Touchdown 6 (that is if the defender recovers a turnover and runs it in...not the defense allowing the TD)
Safety 2
Blocked Kick 2
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Because of this matter, teams that cause turnovers a lot are valuable defenses...as are defenses that are going against teams that turn the ball over a lot. For instance, the Cincinnati Bungles are renowned for their ability to suck. It is usually a good play to pick up even a mediocre defense that is playing them that week so that you can cash in on this ability to suck. I prefer to have one defense on my team at a time, saving my valuable bench slots for WRs, RBs and QBs to replace injured players. This way, if the team I have as a defense is playing a good offensive team or has a bye, I can just pick up a defense off of free agency that has a favorable matchup the following week.
Like Tight Ends, once you get past the elite defenses (say top 5), they aren’t very different from one another. Good defenses will get you 8-15 points per week, while mediocre ones usually average 4-7 points per week. Because of this, unless you can get one of the best defenses ‘late’ (use the ESPN draft list as a reference for what is ‘late’), I’d wait until the end to draft my defense unless you have a mid-to-late pick where you don’t really like any of your options.
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Defenses range from the shitty (0-4 points per week), to mediocre (4-8 per week), to great (9+ per week). If your team pitches a shutout, expect 15+ points.
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My top 5 defenses:
1)
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Ed. Note – 8th in Pts. Allowed, 33 Turnovers, 3 TDs, 36 Sacks
2)
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Philadelphialace>
Ed. Note – 27th in Pts. Allowed, 35 TOs, 3 TDs, 29 Sacks
3)
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Miamilace>
Ed. Note – 15th in Pts. Allowed, 32 TOs, 1 TD, 49 Sacks
4)
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Ed. Note – 3rd in Pts. Allowed, 33 TOs, 1 TD, 47 Sacks
5)
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Ed. Note – 29th in Pts. Allowed, 20 TOs, 6 TDs, 41 Sacks
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Ed. Note – Notable Omissions:>>
1) lace w:st="on">Chicagolace> 1st in Pts. Allowed, 42 TOs, 8 TDs, 41 Sacks>>
2) lace w:st="on">Indianapolislace> 2nd in Pts. Allowed, 41 TOs, 6 TDs, 46 Sacks>>
3) lace w:st="on">Denverlace> 4th in Pts. Allowed, 38 TOs, 6 TDs, 28 Sacks>>
4) lace w:st="on">Carolinalace> 5th in Pts. Allowed, 38 TOs, 5 TDs, 45 Sacks>>
5) lace w:st="on">Jacksonvillelace> 6th in Pts. Allowed, 34 TOs, 4 TDs, 47 Sacks>>
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That’s the draft in a nutshell...with that list in hand and a decent idea of what to expect from each position, you should have a good idea about how to do it.
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Evaluating and improving your team after the draft:>>
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Some people think the league is won or lost in the draft. However there is much to do to improve your team after the draft. The first is to see who was left in free agency. Immediately after the draft, everyone is put on waivers. I would rarely ever use a waiver pick on one of these players...if you think they are good enough to be on your team, why didn’t you pick them during the draft? Wait until other people start dropping players to see if you can improve your team.
It is tough to evaluate your team until the season actually starts and games have been played. What is tough is that some people will suck in the first game, and others will be extraordinary. You can’t predict these booms or busts...so try not to have a knee-jerk reaction...if a player is supposed to be good (he was drafted in the first 4 rounds) and he sucks in week one, he’ll probably pick it up later.
Once statistics start to normalize (after about 3 or 4 weeks when breakout weeks aren’t skewing stats to make mediocre players look like studs or great players to look like crap), you can easily assess the strength of your roster. Consider this: assuming there are 10 teams in our league, there will only be a maximum of 10 QBs started each week.
If you are not starting a QB in the top 10, then there is one somewhere that you should be able to acquire to improve your team. I cannot stress this point enough...week to week this is the easiest way to evaluate and improve your team, comparing your players to the top players in the league. Since only 10 QBs can start, if you’re not starting one of the ten best, get rid of him or bench him and find someone who is in the top ten. This works for every position...just expand the numbers. You should have 2 top 20 RBs, 2 Top 20 WRs (but this is harder to accomplish since they fluctuate a lot until later in the season), and a top 10 TE, K and D.
Look at your bench. If you have a player that is good enough to start on some other teams, try to trade him to improve a weakness of your own. This is tied to the point above...this guy is doing nothing for you while he is on the bench, but if you could trade him to upgrade a starter, then you’re winning. Remember, however, that you want to have a backup in case one of your starters goes down.
Usually, I like my team to look like so:
2 QBs (one active, one backup)
4 RBs (2 active, 1 backup, 1 longshot rookie I hope will do well)
4 WR (2 active, 1 backup, 1 longshot rookie I hope will do well)
1 TE
1 K
1 D
1 Utility Bench slot (use this for someone you think could break out this year with a good season or a rookie you have high hopes for...or perhaps a defense who has a really weak opponent in an upcoming game)
A major philosophy in fantasy sports is to trade depth for Superstars. If you can trade two good players for one great one, usually you are winning in the deal. Evaluate any trades you receive, however, and ask yourself if you think your team will score more points after the trade is finished. If the answer is no, then you shouldn’t make the trade. If the answer is yes, then it is more than likely a good trade.
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As you can see...I could go on for days about this stuff. As it is, I hope this helps, and feel free to ask me any questions. Good luck!
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Vince
02-01-2006, 04:40 PM
