OSU-Texas (and the future of early season OOC matchups between BCS teams)

[albionmoonlight]

There is still a lot of football to be played. If, however, things hold to form, then the winner of the OSU-Texas game will have ended up winning the national championship for the last two years.

Now, that may just be total coincidence. And, as noted above, it may not even be true if OSU stumbles this year. However, do you think that the experiences of OSU and Texas may change the minds of some BCS programs and cause more of these matchups to happen?

There seem to be a few reasons why they are a good idea:

1.) For at least one week early in the season, you are the talk of the college football world. That certainly can't hurt recruiting.

2.) If you win, you have given the impression that you are "the team to beat" and "a national championship contender."

3.) Help your BCS Strength of Schedule.

4.) Playing in a big game early in the season gets your players in a "national championship" mindset early in the season.

There are, of course, two big reasons why you may want to schedule I-AA Midwest instead:

1.) You may lose.

2.) You will probably have to set up a home-and-home, which means an away game against a quality opponent one of the two years.

So, any thoughts on if we may get to see more early-season, inter-conference top-5 matchups in the near future. Or will the status quo prevail and OSU-Texas type games be a rare thing?

[Leonidas]

Ohio State scheduled that game and a whole slew more games against top 10 programs in the future just for this reason. If you are a serious player intending to do more than go to a bowl game or be competitive in conference play then it's absolutely essential you have one or two of these games on the schedule. Just look at Boise State or Rutgers to see what a great schedule against nobodies will get ya.

[Ksyrup]

FSU and Miami have been doing this for years. Historically (and after this year, for the near future), they play on the 2nd weekend of October. And it hasn't hurt them to much in the past 15 years (sadly, it doesn't really matter at this point, but that's another thread...).

So, I don't think there's any reason to believe that all of a sudden this will happen more often now, because college football puts a premium on being undefeated (which is why I prefer the NFL). In general, conferences are getting better top-to-bottom, meaning that even if you get past an early season top 5 matchup, you've got a significant chance of losing a conference game. So, it's probably better (and makes more sense) to rely on the strength of your conference schedule and mitigate against any other opportunities to lose.

[sooner333]

OU is scheduling one big name per year into the near future as well. Though, in the current system, I don't think it helps all that much. Ohio State could have easily played Ball State instead of at Texas this year, remained number one and not had to risk going to Austin. If Texas had played New Mexico State instead, they'd control their own destiny to the NC in all likelihood as things shake out.

[Leonidas]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

FSU and Miami have been doing this for years. Historically (and after this year, for the near future), they play on the 2nd weekend of October. And it hasn't hurt them to much in the past 15 years (sadly, it doesn't really matter at this point, but that's another thread...).

So, I don't think there's any reason to believe that all of a sudden this will happen more often now, because college football puts a premium on being undefeated (which is why I prefer the NFL). In general, conferences are getting better top-to-bottom, meaning that even if you get past an early season top 5 matchup, you've got a significant chance of losing a conference game. So, it's probably better (and makes more sense) to rely on the strength of your conference schedule and mitigate against any other opportunities to lose.

If the BCS puts such a premium on being undefeated then why is Rutgers relegated to the second 10 and why is Lousiville not ranked 4th?

And conference play is terribly difficult in places like the SEC and Big 10, especially road games. It's not a given that you'll go undefeated in conference play anymore. To win a national title requires a) everything to come together b) a good enough schedule to convince the pollsters and computers you are for real and c) a little luck that when you take chances like playing another top 10 team that you'll win. Playing easy non-conference scheds and coasting in the conference may make alumni happy and keep you wealthy in bowl funds, but it doesn't make that final step. You gotta play the OSUs, the NDs, and the UT's if you want the opportunity to play for the title.

[cartman]

My feeling is that the premier OOC games are still going to be few and far between. Most OOC games are scheduled several years in advance, so there is no telling how good the teams are actually going to be once they actually meet on the field. It just so happened that Texas and Ohio State ended up being Top 5 teams when they met the past two years. The games were scheduled back in '99 or 2000, if I recall correctly.

I think, however, if there is a playoff, which puts the emphasis of the regular season on winning your conference, you'll see a lot more of the Top 25 teams scheduling each other out of conference early in the season.

[Leonidas]

Originally Posted by cartman

My feeling is that the premier OOC games are still going to be few and far between. Most OOC games are scheduled several years in advance, so there is no telling how good the teams are actually going to be once they actually meet on the field. It just so happened that Texas and Ohio State ended up being Top 5 teams when they met the past two years. The games were scheduled back in '99 or 2000, if I recall correctly.

I think, however, if there is a playoff, which puts the emphasis of the regular season on winning your conference, you'll see a lot more of the Top 25 teams scheduling each other out of conference early in the season.

The OSU-Texas games are not coincidental. OSU has stated their scheduling strategy for the next 20 years or so is to have one marquee non-conference game mixed with games against in-state teams. When a school like OSU plays a school like Texas it's never a coincidence or a scheduling quirk. These two teams are almost always in the top ten. OSU started this policy 5-6 years ago as a reaction to the BCS. I believe it was specifically in response to a year when FSU made the title game despite having lost to Miami, and Miami was on the outside looking in because of a weak schedule.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Leonidas

The OSU-Texas games are not coincidental. OSU has stated their scheduling strategy for the next 20 years or so is to have one marquee non-conference game mixed with games against in-state teams. When a school like OSU plays a school like Texas it's never a coincidence or a scheduling quirk. These two teams are almost always in the top ten. OSU started this policy 5-6 years ago as a reaction to the BCS. I believe it was specifically in response to a year when FSU made the title game despite having lost to Miami, and Miami was on the outside looking in because of a weak schedule.

I'm not saying the scheduling was coincidental, but the strength of the two teams could not have been accurately predicted 5 years ago. If you would have to guess 5 years ago which teams would be ranked in the Top 5 at the beginning of this season, I'm sure that Miami, Florida State, or Oklahoma would have been picked long before Texas.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Leonidas

If the BCS puts such a premium on being undefeated then why is Rutgers relegated to the second 10 and why is Lousiville not ranked 4th?

And conference play is terribly difficult in places like the SEC and Big 10, especially road games. It's not a given that you'll go undefeated in conference play anymore. To win a national title requires a) everything to come together b) a good enough schedule to convince the pollsters and computers you are for real and c) a little luck that when you take chances like playing another top 10 team that you'll win. Playing easy non-conference scheds and coasting in the conference may make alumni happy and keep you wealthy in bowl funds, but it doesn't make that final step. You gotta play the OSUs, the NDs, and the UT's if you want the opportunity to play for the title.

Your second paragraph is contradictory. I agree that the bigger conferences are difficult to navigate undefeated. Which is why, in response to your first comment, I should clarify that I'm referring to the big conference teams. The Big East, quite simply, hasn't proven itself yet.

But the second part of that paragraph doesn't make sense. A team from the big, respected conferences doesn't necessarily have to play top out of conference teams to prove themselves or have a shot at the BCS Champ Game. There's very little incentive for an SEC team, for example, to play a tough out of conference team when they have such a hard conference schedule. And while they might not be guaranteed a shot at the BCS Champ Bowl if they go undefeated (depending on other teams' performance and how the computer rankings go), they'll have the right to bitch and moan like Auburn when they get left out. Unlike, for instance, Boise State. Or maybe, Rutgers.

Your comments make sense for The Big East and lesser conferences who, rightly or wrongly, have to prove that they can beat someone other than their own conference and the crap out of conference schools they play. Arkansas is a good example of a middle tier big conference school that may have screwed themselves out of a shot at the BCS Bowl by playing USC. If - and it's a big IF, but at this point... - they run the table, they'll be in the top 6 for sure. But had they played an average or poor Div I school to start the year instead of USC...maybe they're in the title game if everything breaks right.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by cartman

I'm not saying the scheduling was coincidental, but the strength of the two teams could not have been accurately predicted 5 years ago. If you would have to guess 5 years ago which teams would be ranked in the Top 5 at the beginning of this season, I'm sure that Miami, Florida State, or Oklahoma would have been picked long before Texas.

Case in point...FSU and Colorado will be playing a series of home-and-homes in the next couple of years. That series looked far more appealing a few years ago - to both teams.

[kingnebwsu]

OSU has a home&home scheduled with USC here in the next couple of years. That will be crazier than OSU/Texas.

[Butter]

They've also got one with Miami (FL) if I'm not mistaken in future years. Again, OSU needs to hope that Miami comes back off the mat a bit, which given their track record is a decent bet.

[timmynausea]

In the past couple years West Virginia has added home and homes with Florida State (this one actually came via the Big East's lawsuit against the ACC), Auburn and Michigan State to future schedules. Michigan State doesn't look quite as good anymore, but maybe with a new coach they'll bounce back.