Who will be the Republican VP?

[Buccaneer]

I love following stuff like this, as I have the primaries. It's exactly like a March Madness type sporting event. Anyways, the poll shows the contenders for the Republican VP, according to cnn.com.

I can't post the pros and cons for each as it is a flash-based page.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/...kes/index.html

[Buccaneer]

I voted for Crist, governor of Florida. His negative is that he's a childless bachelor.

[Arles]

I really hope it's Jindal.

[kcchief19]

As someone who wants McCain to lose, Lieberman would be a great pick.

I'm really tempted to choose other. Crist and Sanford are great picks. Jindal is way too trendy and too little accomplishments. McCain's biggest challenges is getting someone who doesn't make him look even older and looks like too much voltage at the bottom of the ticket and has people willing to wait four years. I think that certainly hurt Kerry four years ago in terms of getting Dems excited who were Edwards backers and would rather have him on the ticket.

I won't wuss out and say the pick will bet Person A but Person B is the better choice. I'm going with Huckabee. Huckabee could be pitbull in general election as the VP candidate needs to be. He doesn't have the baggage of Bush fatigue that Rice, Portman and others have. He's a strong social conservative. The drawback is that his appeal is limited to the south -- but that's exactly where McCain is weakest and needs the most help. In Obama, the Dems have a candidate who can put SC, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas and maybe even Texas in play. Huckabee was very strong there and can get out the base. Somewhat surprised Huckabee missed the McCain retreat this weekend. Might be a bad sign.

[rowech]

Colin Powell

[Buccaneer]

his appeal is limited to the south -- but that's exactly where McCain is weakest and needs the most help

Matt, I am surprised by this statement. Everything I've read say that the key states will be the non-Southern swing states (perhaps with the exception of VA). TX, AL, MI and SC are not even listed as part of the battleground polls. Wishful thinking?

[Izulde]

My guess would be Huckabee.

[flounder]

I would like to see Sanford, but he's for smaller government. I don't know if he would fit in with McCain.

[JPhillips]

McCain definitely needs help with conservatives, not for votes, but for money. Especially now with his troubles with Hagee and Parsley, he's got a real problem with fundraising.

The VP slot becomes very tricky IMO. He needs a guy that can energize the base without turning off independents. Can Jindal moderate his social positions? Do rumors of Crist's sexuality poison religious conservatives?

My bet is Pawlenty. He's not a bold choice, but I don't see McCain taking a risk with someone he doesn't personally like. Pawlenty is liked by the business wing and is enough of an unknown to mold his positions to fit the far right. He'll put MN in play and that may be enough in this election.

[Young Drachma]

I think he'll go with someone younger, who will burnish his credentials as a maverick. A politician, but non-Washington insider who can serve as an attack dog, youthful and affable where McCain is a straight shooter and seemingly independent where he's toeing the party line. But has to be a pro-lifer who can keep the right wing happy.

Crist won't get it. No way a single man gets to be a heartbeat away from the President's seat in today's GOP. Romney and McCain don't like each other reportedly and a non-politician wouldn't have been properly vetted for the MSM onslaught. Jindal is too young and is smart enough to know that his time will eventually come, but not yet.

It's hard to say.

[JPhillips]

Romney's Mormonism is also a big problem with religious conservatives. They'll shut their wallets and stay home(or vote for Barr) in November if he's on the ticket.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

McCain definitely needs help with conservatives, not for votes, but for money. Especially now with his troubles with Hagee and Parsley, he's got a real problem with fundraising.

The VP slot becomes very tricky IMO. He needs a guy that can energize the base without turning off independents. Can Jindal moderate his social positions? Do rumors of Crist's sexuality poison religious conservatives?

My bet is Pawlenty. He's not a bold choice, but I don't see McCain taking a risk with someone he doesn't personally like. Pawlenty is liked by the business wing and is enough of an unknown to mold his positions to fit the far right. He'll put MN in play and that may be enough in this election.

Pawlenty is an interesting choice. Read up on him a bit and he seems like a safe, but 'bold' pick in a race where McCain will need just that. I don't think it'll tip the scales, but a Republican governor of a blue state is just what they need.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that Pawlenty is the likely way for McCain to go. Jindall would be great for McCain but it seems like rather than assuaging concerns about his age it would only amplify them. Presumably Pawlenty would tighten up MN which would force Dem spending there, though I don't see it swinging to red. Pawlenty has been there for McCain since the start and that matters.

That said, I think Crist is the more intriguing choice, as like McCain he is fairly conservative on the issues that matter most, while being heterodox on some less prominent issues. The fact that he's single seems like it's a non-issue in the long run, but perhaps I'm wrong there.

[ISiddiqui]

Well the single bachelor thing seems to fuel speculation that he's actually gay. Those rumors have apparently been whispered for years (as they were with McGreevey in NJ).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well the single bachelor thing seems to fuel speculation that he's actually gay. Those rumors have apparently been whispered for years (as they were with McGreevey in NJ).

Yeah being gay would definitely be a problem for Crist. Yet another reason why Pawlenty will get the nod.

[st.cronin]

I think Pawlenty, Jindal, Romney, and Huckabee are the only realistic choices.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well the single bachelor thing seems to fuel speculation that he's actually gay. Those rumors have apparently been whispered for years (as they were with McGreevey in NJ).

When I listed the negative for Crist, I had not realized that it fueled gay rumors.

[albionmoonlight]

Romney might be willing to pump a lot of his own money into the campaign. From what people were saying when Bloomberg was in the mix, it seems legal for the VP to spend as much as he wants without it being considered a campaign contribution.

[Barkeep49]

Albion I actually believe that it's unresolved about the legality of a VP candidate pumping money in.

[Swaggs]

I hope he chooses the governor of Alaska.

She is smoking hot.

[chesapeake]

Rob Portman is the best VP pick no one knows. He's from a big state (OH), great reputation as a hard worker and appeals to conservatives without seeming nutty. My money is on him.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I hope he chooses the governor of Alaska.

She is smoking hot.

[SackAttack]

I'd love to see him pick J.C. Watts.

I can't get excited about any of the names on that list, and more specifically Huckabee is the instant anathema for me that Clinton would be on Obama's ticket.

[Godzilla Blitz]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree that Pawlenty is the likely way for McCain to go.

I think this is a great choice: it gets Pawlenty out of our state. Please, take him, all of him, and don't give him back.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'd love to see him pick J.C. Watts.

I can't get excited about any of the names on that list, and more specifically Huckabee is the instant anathema for me that Clinton would be on Obama's ticket.

Now that's a blast from the past.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

Matt, I am surprised by this statement. Everything I've read say that the key states will be the non-Southern swing states (perhaps with the exception of VA). TX, AL, MI and SC are not even listed as part of the battleground polls. Wishful thinking?

I'm looking at a couple of factors. One are the primary results. Huckabee won Georgia, Alabama, Lousianna, Tennessee and Arkansas. Texas went McCain 51-38, but that was at a point when McCain already was the presumptive nominee. In Georgia and Arkansas, McCain was even in a battle with Romney for 2nd place -- and we know how much southern conservatives love anybody from Massachusetts. McCain won South Carolina close, but if Thompson had dropped out before SC Huckabee probably wins there. McCain's weakest primary performances were in the West and South, both traditional GOP strongholds. They aren't crazy about him there.

These states are also generally 25-40% African-American, and that demographic is going to turn out for Obama in droves. The primary results tell us that. Democratic voters outnumbered Republican voters in the primaries in South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Lousiana, Arkansas and Tennessee. Voter registrations have been through the roof in SC, Georgia and Texas.

The demographics and organization favor Obama if he can capitalize on it. Georgia and South Carolina seem most rip for the picking. I think Clinton could win Tennessee if she were running, but I don't like Obama's chances there. He has a real chance in Louisiana, Arkansas and Alabama. I think Texas is in play too if he plays his cards right.

The current polls can't be trusted. I've seen Georgia polls that show Obama down 10 points there. But both Clinton and Obama are huring in head-to-head matchups against McCain because so many of their supporters want their candidate to win and won't back the other right now. That will change once Hillary backs out. Mind you, Georgia is a place Bush won by 15 points in '04. McCain should be leading there by 20+ right now.

[ISiddiqui]

I've seen Georgia polls that show Obama down 10 points there.

That's about right. There is no way in Hell Obama wins Georgia.

[clintl]

Please tell me Carly Fiorina isn't a serious candidate. She's the idiot that destroyed one of America's great corporate cultures - an absolute disaster of a CEO at Hewlett-Packard.

[SnowMan]

At least we chose a good governor! There was some rumor of Palin being considered just because she's tried to clean up politics up here and has a real rep of cracking down on ethics. But, it's Alaska...not gonna get you many votes in America.

[Zelig]

Phil Gramm

[Barkeep49]

There's no way any southern state, including FL, goes for Obama, though VA could be the exception. But VA is a border state and NOVA isn't really southern in outlook.

[QuikSand]

I don't think McCain's selection will have anything to do with trying to put certain states into play or out of play to his advantage. I mostly don't believe that really happens, and I don't think his camp does either.

I think his main motivation in his decisions in the next few months is to keep this race from spinning out of control. All the oversimplified factors are at work against the GOP right now -- incumbent party with unpopular war and bad economy. Nothing about the mortgage crisis or the economic stimulus plan seems to be shoring up Bush's popularity, and my guess is that won't change much by this fall. It shapes up, on its surface, as a chance for the out-of-power party to sweep in easily... eliminating all this talk about what might happen in this or that swing state. If the popular vote is Dems +8% or more in early November, then you're not talking about OH and NM as your swing states anymore, you're talking about VA and LA and so forth as the ones that are still close, and the main question becomes whether you have an electoral landslide on your hands. Obviously, McCain wants to avoid this sort of situation - so he's properly thinking entirely about what sort of running mate helps him fend off this sort of mess.

I *do* think that McCain's VP choice makes a major difference in this election, specifically due to his age. It can't help but be a major motif in this general campaign, and his pick needs to have the look of capabilty about him, the whole "one heartbeat away" crap.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

There's no way any southern state, including FL, goes for Obama, though VA could be the exception. But VA is a border state and NOVA isn't really southern in outlook.

I would take that bet. Virginia is one of the few places where Obama is performing better against McCain in polls than Clinton is. Virginia is another place where had to battle with Huckabee after Tuesday and Democratic voted exploded versus GOP vote. I'm not going to draw too many conclusions there since it was a week after Super Tuesday and the GOP race was essentially over.

But while demographics might be improving for Dems in Virginia, it's still a GOP state more than even some of the Deep South states. I don't think Virginia has gone Democratic since Johnson. Clinton won Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana twice and Florida and Georgia once each. Carter of course carried the south. Obama will win a south state or two. If he doesn't, he will have run a crappy and losing campaign.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I *do* think that McCain's VP choice makes a major difference in this election, specifically due to his age. It can't help but be a major motif in this general campaign, and his pick needs to have the look of capabilty about him, the whole "one heartbeat away" crap.

That's what makes this selection very difficult. McCain needs someone capable ... just not "too" capable. McCain can't have somone on the ticket too young and energetic that makes him appear, and it can't be someone who is so qualified to be president that voters are willing to wait four years for the other guy.

I do think positions and regionalism will play a role in his selection. If McCain picks Romney, I think it's ball game over. That ticket won't play in the south and it won't necessarily play to the party base either.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

That's what makes this selection very difficult. McCain needs someone capable ... just not "too" capable. McCain can't have somone on the ticket too young and energetic that makes him appear, and it can't be someone who is so qualified to be president that voters are willing to wait four years for the other guy.

I think this analysis (which, to me, looks good) kind of points to Pawlenty.

[st.cronin]

Who would be "too" capable?

[flere-imsaho]

Perhaps the correct phrase would be "too electable". Basically Romney & Huckabee, whose supporters would sooner sit out an election with their guy as VP in order to wait for another chance to vote for him as President.

[ISiddiqui]

Then again, no candidate wants to be associated with a "loser". Even if he was just Veep nominee in that race.

[JPhillips]

I think that's Jindal's problem. If he loses with McCain how much does that damage him? Is it worth the exposure and the historic nature of being selected if it ends up dimming his future career?

[Barkeep49]

Jindall is young and Republicans, traditionally, have been forgiving to losers. I think a VP nom, even if it's a loss, greatly raises his profile and is a net positive to someone who gives a different look to the GOP.

[ISiddiqui]

Nixon was an outlier, and was almost finished, but had the greatest political comback perhaps in American history. Other Republican Presidential or Vice Presidential losers haven't faired all that well.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Nixon was an outlier, and was almost finished, but had the greatest political comback perhaps in American history. Other Republican Presidential or Vice Presidential losers haven't faired all that well.

Well winning is one thing, but McCain, Bush, and Dole all had failed presidential runs before getting the nominations.

[ISiddiqui]

McCain and Bush had failed primary runs which are not the same thing. If that was the case, then the Dems would be forgiving to losers too, what with nominating Al Gore for President.

Dole had enough time in between his loss and his run (20 years) to wash the stain off.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

McCain and Bush had failed primary runs which are not the same thing. If that was the case, then the Dems would be forgiving to losers too, what with nominating Al Gore for President.

Dole had enough time in between his loss and his run (20 years) to wash the stain off.

Well that's sort of my point that Jindal is young enough that there would be plenty of time to wash off the stain, to use your words, of any defeat.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, it isn't like its easy... I mean Dole was Senate Majority Leader. I don't think Jindal wants to put himself behind the 8 Ball so early in his career if McCain does end up losing.

[Young Drachma]

Agreed. No way Jindal needs that right now in a state where he's massively popular. He's just greasing the skids for a run in 4-8 years.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Agreed. No way Jindal needs that right now in a state where he's massively popular. He's just greasing the skids for a run in 4-8 years.

If Louisiana politics give him that luxury.