Poker Odds

[kcchief19]

Tried to find a suitable old thread to tag this on but gave up after a brief search. I'm hoping to get our poker/stat heads on this one, since I've been unable to find an answer and the C-grade I earned in Stat 31 at Mizzou back in 1992 is insufficient for the task.

Five-handed:
Hand A: 99 short-stack UTG+1 all-in
Hand B: 22 chip leader in cutoff
Hand C: AA medium stack BB

Looking pretty good for AA ... until the flop came 9J2. What are the odds of AA losing both the main pot and side pot to two different two-outers?

Furthermore, what are the odds of AA running into two other pocket pairs and losing to both? To protect the innocent and the guilty, I won't say who I was in the hand, other than I was not AA.

[flere-imsaho]

I would recommend this thread, which is similar in concept.

[kcchief19]

Are you suggesting every time I lose at poker, I simply double my buy-in the next time?

[cartman]

Pre-flop, the Aces were around a 2/3rd favorite to win. Post-flop, the 9s are in a commanding lead (~80%), with the Aces still having a slight lead over the set of 2s.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Are you suggesting every time I lose at poker, I simply double my buy-in the next time?

You say that like it couldn't work....

[flere-imsaho]

BTW, I'm terrible at poker odds, which is why I stopped playing. I am going to be completely of no use to this thread.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by cartman

Pre-flop, the Aces were around a 2/3rd favorite to win. Post-flop, the 9s are in a commanding lead (~80%), with the Aces still having a slight lead over the set of 2s.

To be clear, I think you are only talking about the main pot.

The set of 2s is a big favorite to take the side pot. Something like 90-10.

[digamma]

On the original question, it is less than 2% that both the 99 and the 22 flop a set and the AA misses on the flop.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by digamma

To be clear, I think you are only talking about the main pot.

The set of 2s is a big favorite to take the side pot. Something like 90-10.

Ah, true. I was looking at it still 3 handed.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by digamma

On the original question, it is less than 2% that both the 99 and the 22 flop a set and the AA misses on the flop.

That's the number I'm looking for. AA would have to be in a commanding position. Obviously the 2 is worse than a 9 hitting, since 22 had AA covered. Obviously the odds of either a 9 or 2 hitting are the same, but as this hand played out, the side pot was more valuable than the main pot, so AA is fine with a 9 hitting, but not both 9 and 2.

I was just having trouble calculating the odds of both smaller pairs hitting and AA losing to both. Brutal.

I'm also appreciating the coincidence of 92 being critical to this hand. Wish it were 92o.

Thanks, digamma!

[dacman]

I came up with a 1.7% chance on the flop and 4.2% chance of it after the turn and river (which is a little high because I didn't remove out split pot outcomes (community straights and flushes) and the quad-2 possibility where the chip leader takes both pots edit: or the chance one hand takes it on a flush, which can't be computed without the starting hand suits).