The Official 2016 NBA Playoffs Thread

[Brian Swartz]

Ok seriously, the forum is slacking. A bunch of people said they'd tune in to the NBA once the playoffs started -- well that's today. So let's get with it!!

EAST

(1) Cleveland vs. (8) Detroit
(4) Atlanta vs. (5) Boston
(3) Miami vs. (6) Charlotte
(2) Toronto vs. (7) Indiana

WEST

(1) Golden State vs. (8) Houston
(4) Los Angeles(C) vs. (5) Portland
(3) Oklahoma City vs. (6) Dallas
(2) San Antonio vs. (7) Memphis

Discuss already!!

[Sublime 2]

Expecting a bloodbath between the Hawks and Celts. Hawks won the season series 3-1, but homeristic optimism is telling me C's in 7!

[larrymcg421]

I should be excited to watch my favorite team (Celtics) in the playoffs, but they have no chance at winning the championship, which I'm told is the only thing that matters. If only they had gone 10-72 this year.

[Groundhog]

[nol]

The thing I was most wrong about in the regular season was thinking the Western Conference would continue its 10+ year run of having multiple non-playoff teams finish with a better record than the East's 8 seed. However, if a non-injured Memphis had earned the 5 seed and bumped Portland and Dallas down, there may not be an East team that would beat its West counterpart in a series except maybe Charlotte over Portland.

I suppose it's still progress that this trend stops around 8 rather than going 12 or so teams down (with the exception of when LeBron's team happens to be the best in the league) like it usually does.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I should be excited to watch my favorite team (Celtics) in the playoffs, but they have no chance at winning the championship, which I'm told is the only thing that matters. If only they had gone 10-72 this year.

ROFL! In all seriousness, I love Brad Stevens and he's made me an interested follower in the Celtics, who I was obligated to hate in the Bird era due to the 1987 ECF as home-grown Bad Boys Pistons fan from Michigan. Perhaps you can console yourself with the ridiculous number of draft picks they'll have this year ...

[stevew]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I should be excited to watch my favorite team (Celtics) in the playoffs, but they have no chance at winning the championship, which I'm told is the only thing that matters. If only they had gone 10-72 this year.

They still have a top 6 pick at least. Assets!

[nol]

One of these players is allegedly an offensive zero who elicits concern that his team will have to pay him. The other went on to earn a near-max contract and has been the best player for the number 2 seed today.

[murrayyyyy]

I played Hornets to beat the Heat in the series +135. The Buzz had the 2nd best record in the 2nd half of the season in the East and the Heat will probably be missing Bosh. I'm not sure they are an underdog with both teams splitting this year.

[nol]

That play Paul George just made won't be considered 'clutch' because of arbitrary time/score benchmarks, but having the presence of mind to pull the ball out instead of throwing up a wild shot on a fast break and then hitting the jumper 15 seconds later is such a big-time play.

[murrayyyyy]

I know the NBA has runs but is this GSW-HOU game already over?

[miami_fan]

I only caught the first half of HOU-GSW. I am shocked that Patrick Beverly did not get ejected or that neither team had a flagrant foul.

[miami_fan]

Would have been nice to see the Heat save some of these point for later in the series. There is always a potential for a repeat of the Boston second half.

[Zinto]

Pretty happy with how the Pistons played today. The rest of the series being played tight and one win will make me a very happy fan.

[Brian Swartz]

It was a good effort by the Pistons, but they aren't going to shoot that well very often. Cleveland won't often play that 'clean' offensively either I don't think.

[Groundhog]

The Irving/Love P&R was working great - of course, it helps when Kyrie is making his shots. IMO they should be starting Love at the 5 and LeBron at the 4 from this point forward.

[Brian Swartz]

Didn't expect quite this many Game 1 blowouts.

[Groundhog]

Hawks-Celtics aside, playoffs don't really begin until round 2.

[Groundhog]

dola

At the start of the year, who could have imagined a playoff team rolling out a starting 5 containing Jordan Farmar, Vince Carter, and Chris Andersen.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

dola

At the start of the year, who could have imagined a playoff team rolling out a starting 5 containing Jordan Farmar, Vince Carter, and Chris Andersen.

One of those three players does not have a ring lol

[Alf]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Hawks-Celtics aside, playoffs don't really begin until round 2.

Maybe OKC vs DAL is in that category too, no ?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Alf

Maybe OKC vs DAL is in that category too, no ?

I don't expect the Mavs to get spanked by 38 points every game, and Thunder have shown they can lose to just about anyone on any given night, but I don't expect this series to be must-see TV.

I think the Mavs have done a magnificent job this season with the roster they have and Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the league, but short of Dirk turning back father time and/or a complete implosion by the Thunder I don't see the Mavs winning more than 1 or 2.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Hawks-Celtics aside, playoffs don't really begin until round 2.

Pacers-Raptors seems matched evenly enough.

I also expect Portland to put up a fight yet

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by whomario

Pacers-Raptors seems matched evenly enough.

I also expect Portland to put up a fight yet

I think Charlotte can make it a series as well.

I think it will be tough for Portland. In the paint the Clippers just dominate. Of course Lillard has them games where no one on the planet can stop him and he goes into Curry mode.

[whomario]

The Mavs are also without Parson (and Barea now it seems), even 2011 Dirk couldnt make this an even matchup.

[nol]

Steph's out for game 2; it's somewhat understated that the Warriors' regular season improvement from last year to this year has come from Curry being that much better even as the supporting cast has been a little worse as a whole.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by whomario

The Mavs are also without Parson (and Barea now it seems), even 2011 Dirk couldnt make this an even matchup.

or...

That was a wild finish, with the basket being disallowed.

[nol]

Originally Posted by cartman

or...

As long as they have Carlisle and Dirk they'll never be DOA in a series, but at the same time Kevin Durant going 7-33 or whatever is not something you'd expect to hold up going forward.

[Alf]

Originally Posted by nol

As long as they have Carlisle and Dirk they'll never be DOA in a series, but at the same time Kevin Durant going 7-33 or whatever is not something you'd expect to hold up going forward.

Yup, and OKC was 0.2 seconds away from winning

[jbergey22]

Just an observation as I was following the games but they didnt have my 100 percent focus. I thought the road teams(Mavs/Rockets) were getting more calls than the home teams in them particular games. Maybe the NBA has informed the refs that they need to do their part in order to make these 1st round games watchable

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by nol

Steph's out for game 2; it's somewhat understated that the Warriors' regular season improvement from last year to this year has come from Curry being that much better even as the supporting cast has been a little worse as a whole.

Just curious as to how you are defining the supporting cast as worse than last year - I'm probably a little biased, but I've watched a lot of Warriors basketball this year, and I don't think I'd agree. Draymond is demonstrably better, Klay Thompson had quite possibly his best season as a pro...Barnes was a bit disappointing this season and the bench has maybe taken a slight step backward, but most of that is attributable to injuries - the Warriors were missing several key reserves for long stretches this season.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Just curious as to how you are defining the supporting cast as worse than last year - I'm probably a little biased, but I've watched a lot of Warriors basketball this year, and I don't think I'd agree. Draymond is demonstrably better, Klay Thompson had quite possibly his best season as a pro...Barnes was a bit disappointing this season and the bench has maybe taken a slight step backward, but most of that is attributable to injuries - the Warriors were missing several key reserves for long stretches this season.

I compared as well but didnt bring it up as I didnt feel like arguing it. Green and Thompson both improved their numbers a bit. Bogut, Iggy, Barnes was virtually the same player. They didnt have Lee and I suppose you could say Speights was worse. All in all I found it remarkable how similar most of the players were over the past 2 seasons.

Green taking his game to more of elite status and becoming a leader was also a very important status. Green is a great secondary type leader because he leads by example.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Just curious as to how you are defining the supporting cast as worse than last year - I'm probably a little biased, but I've watched a lot of Warriors basketball this year, and I don't think I'd agree. Draymond is demonstrably better, Klay Thompson had quite possibly his best season as a pro...Barnes was a bit disappointing this season and the bench has maybe taken a slight step backward, but most of that is attributable to injuries - the Warriors were missing several key reserves for long stretches this season.

The bench in 2015/16: 33.9 ppg, 16.4 reb, 9.3 asst

The bench in 2014/15: 34 ppg, 15.6 reb, 9 asst

Starters this year improved a little over 4 ppg and 2 assists. So I'd be on your side with the supporting cast being a little better (not a ton) just because they had 18 more starts by bench players this year and the starters numbers went up. Wasn't last year about them being lucky and not missing any starters?

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

The bench in 2015/16: 33.9 ppg, 16.4 reb, 9.3 asst

The bench in 2014/15: 34 ppg, 15.6 reb, 9 asst

Right, so them winning 73 rather than 67 games is due to Steph Curry being that much better and playing slightly more minutes. The on/off splits with Curry and Green are more pronounced this year than last.

14-15: 116-100 per 100 possessions with Curry, 102-103 without

15-16: 119-101 when in vs. 105-109 when out

And this is even with Draymond Green being improved across the board to the point that he *might* be considered a better player than Pau Gasol or Kevin Love now.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by nol

Right, so them winning 73 rather than 67 games is due to Steph Curry being that much better and playing slightly more minutes. The on/off splits with Curry and Green are more pronounced this year than last.

14-15: 116-100 per 100 possessions with Curry, 102-103 without

15-16: 119-101 when in vs. 105-109 when out

And this is even with Draymond Green being improved across the board to the point that he *might* be considered a better player than Pau Gasol or Kevin Love now.

Draymond vs. Pau is an argument?

Caveat that I haven't look at a single stat comparison.

[nol]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Draymond vs. Pau is an argument?

Caveat that I haven't look at a single stat comparison.

More points, rebounds, and blocks per game = Pau was the better player by a mile last season

If you're still using that criteria, it holds for this year too! 16-11-2 compared to 14-9.5-1.5 for Green.

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Pau Gasol had a much higher PER and offensive win share while being 5th in the NBA in defensive win shares. Unless 5th place in the is suddenly shit then I guess you stand correct. Gasol had 48 more blocks this season. 48. I didn't imagine that number. It's "cuarenta y ocho mas". Even in Spanish it's still 48 more. Gasol was 4th in rebounding this year. That's 4th with 11.8 a game. Green had 8.2 rebounds per game. Guess what 8.2 rpg isn't... good enough for 4th place in the NBA. Let's get to points actually scored. Green with 11.7 and Gasol with 18.5. Wanna take a wild fucking guess which is more? So besides Gasol having more points, rebounds, and blocks he didn't outstat Green in you "intangibles" and defensive MVP voting.

La de freaking da...

Here's the parts of the game that don't qualify Green as top 30:

1) Usage %. He was 297th in the NBA on percentage of being used by his team on the offensive end. If he was a top 30 guy, I would expect his team to use him more.

2) FT%. Call me old school but you have to be better than 66% from the line which he has shot the last 2 seasons. It was a big knock I had against Blake and he worked hard on improving his shot. Not saying Green can't but the difference is right now, he is a 66% shooter. The Warriors win a lot of games because Thompson and Curry are above 87% from the line. Lots of players you consider not top 30 are excellent from the line and that is part of their offensive game. Dirk... Lillard... Butler... Teague, heck maybe even Heyward. Just as much as you want to preach that everyone ignores Green's defense you fail to see what these players do on offense by drawing fouls and hitting the shots.

3) 92 starts in 3 seasons. You can tell me it's not fair but I need more of a resume to declare he is a top 15/30 players. Personally I don't consider any rookie/soph in the top 30 right now. There is damn sure no way an 11-3-8 guy is top 30 in the NBA unless he is averaging 7 steals + blocks a game.

You can preach to me that youth is always better but it simply isn't the case.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Sublime 2

Draymond vs. Pau is an argument?

Caveat that I haven't look at a single stat comparison.

It was meant for me knowing the source. Nol is anti-stats when it comes to an argument against his. It's part of his "process".

Then again I was told that Gasol wasn't at all-star level in the past and yet he was still an all-star this year. I just don't feel like looking up nol's post to prove it.

But if we want to discuss Green he did a much better job of shooting less 3's (70 less attempts this year) at a better percentage which helped increase his FG% (4.7%). He also doubled his assists and turnovers but when you have two guy hitting 670+ threes in a season on your team, you can take more chances on the passes (and probably get a few more assists out of it).

His shooting percentage has gone down with Curry missing the last 6 quarters but that would be me draggin in stats again. (1-5 in 2nd half of game 1, 4-15 in game 2)

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

It was meant for me knowing the source. Nol is anti-stats when it comes to an argument against his. It's part of his "process".

Then again I was told that Gasol wasn't at all-star level in the past and yet he was still an all-star this year. I just don't feel like looking up nol's post to prove it.

But if we want to discuss Green he did a much better job of shooting less 3's (70 less attempts this year) at a better percentage which helped increase his FG% (4.7%). He also doubled his assists and turnovers but when you have two guy hitting 670+ threes in a season on your team, you can take more chances on the passes (and probably get a few more assists out of it).

His shooting percentage has gone down with Curry missing the last 6 quarters but that would be me draggin in stats again. (1-5 in 2nd half of game 1, 4-15 in game 2)

In other words, trade Pau Gasol for Draymond and the Warriors are 77-5 this year!

This may come as earth-shattering news, but getting voted into the All-Star game (as an injury replacement, no less) because of name recognition is not the same as playing at an All-Star level.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by nol

In other words, trade Pau Gasol for Draymond and the Warriors are 77-5 this year!

I had a nice rebuttal, but fuck it. Keep cherry picking when stats that only represent your side. Keep putting words in my mouth like the quote above. We all understand your "process". I know there is no use in having any discussion with you because you are 82-0 (4-4-4-4) level while I'm the San Antonio Stars. I'll turn in my cool collection of points here and go back to ignoring you.

[nol]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

I had a nice rebuttal, but fuck it. Keep cherry picking when stats that only represent your side. Keep putting words in my mouth like the quote above. We all understand your "process". I know there is no use in having any discussion with you because you are 82-0 (4-4-4-4) level while I'm the San Antonio Stars. I'll turn in my cool collection of points here and go back to ignoring you.

No, it's that the stats you use are pretty basic ones like points, rebounds, and assists and betray an utter lack of understanding of the context surrounding them. There's not much cherry-picking that needs to be done to say the 2nd-best player on the best regular season team of all time is better than the 2nd-best player on an non-playoff team (and would have been a deserving All-Star this season even if his game hadn't improved at all from '14-15).

As seen, your 3 points were 1) he passes the ball to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson rather than trying to force shots up himself (you can use smarter numbers like touches per game or a version of usage rate that accounts for assist opportunities generated to see that Draymond Green has been pretty involved in the offense, or you could just watch the games) 2) he's not a good free throw shooter even though trying to draw fouls is not a huge part of his game and he's obviously never been a bad enough shooter to be a target of intentional fouling (he would have scored a grand total of 0.3 more points per game more by being an 80% free throw shooter last season, but that surely doesn't constitute cherry-picking a stat on your part!) 3) you needed more than an entire regular season and playoffs during which the Warriors were the best team in the league pretty much wire-to-wire to pass judgement over whether their 2nd-best player was actually good.

The NBA has some 'hustle' stats that are out for the playoffs; a lot of the arguments I have with people essentially boil down to the idea that if it were mainstream (NBA teams themselves chart such things and are far ahead of even the nerdiest advanced stats out there with access to home-brewed metrics based on player tracking data) to do stuff like give some fraction of an assist to setting a screen that gets a guy open or to being a good enough shooter that your defender doesn't help off you to prevent an uncontested layup, it would more accurately capture how good players are. All of those things are just as arbitrary as 'the guy you passed the ball to scored within a few seconds,' but the passing assist is just there out of tradition, so the players who specialize in those (or who really sell out to get rebounds when a significant majority of rebounds are uncontested and are just a manner of who the ball bounces to) are viewed as more 'skilled' out of sheer laziness.

Hustle stats Even these are child's play compared to what the good NBA teams are working with, but it's at least a start.

And to circle back to what I initially said about Golden State, they'd be a .500 team if Steph Curry had been hurt for the entire season and would probably not be favored to make it out of the first round of the playoffs in either conference if you replaced Steph with even a pretty good point guard like Isaiah Thomas, which does not necessarily line up with them being 'light years' ahead of the league as their owner would like you to believe. It's not mutually exclusive for someone to be one of the top 10 overall players and for his team to achieve middling amounts of success; it just illuminates how the guys like Curry and LeBron are so talented that they even dwarf someone who's one of the 10-15 best players in the league.

[sovereignstar v2]

Wolves have hired Thibs.

[whomario]

And it´s also not mutually exclusive to say that Curry is a special, special player and the Rest of the team is still really good. They´d imo still win 50-55 at least with Isiah Thomas.

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Wolves have hired Thibs.

Well, at least its not Mark Jackson (who reportedly interviewed) ... Hope he gets a good offensive assistant and a medical/training staff you tells him whats what.

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Wolves have hired Thibs.

If that young talent buys into Thibs' system, they could be contenders in a couple of years.

Still don't like the move to remove Thibs in Chicago. Understand he rides teams hard, but he got results.

[sovereignstar v2]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Wolves have hired Thibs.

Wow. Back to where he started.

[wustin]

I hope he doesn't overwork his players like he did in Chicago.

[kingfc22]

How this Warriors game is even close is ridiculous. Houston should be winning this game going away.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

How this Warriors game is even close is ridiculous. Houston should be winning this game going away.

Between Harden's dumb shots and turnovers, Howards piss poor free throw shooting, and their forget to guard someone on a possession no lead is safe for the Rockets. They take on the personality of their leader(Harden). Tighten up and play dumb when the game pressure gets higher.

[Groundhog]

I reckon Warriors going to go for something unconventional on this last shot here.

[Groundhog]

dola

lol... well, that counts as unconventional.

[jbergey22]

Livingston was so close to stealing that final pass. Would have led directly to a game winning layup for Golden State. Risky!