So here's my example - I am using Victor Sanchez and he has a 90 MPH fastball. His scouting report in real life is that he is 89-91 but is able to reach back and hit 93-94 when he needs it. OK, so I take him into practice mode and do a couple of experiments, fastballs low and fastballs high. Here's what I get:
Low
89, 88, 89, 89, 87, 88, 88, 90, 88, 88, 90, 89, 89, 88, 89, 89, 88, 90, 88, 89
High
91, 91, 90, 90, 91, 91, 91, 91, 91, 90, 91, 91, 91, 91, 90, 91, 91, 89, 90, 91
So a possible caveat is this - Sanchez's fastball is at the absolute lowest rung of the 90 MPH scale. If I bumped up his fastball to, say, 90.5 MPH would it make a difference?
Low
89, 90, 89, 90, 90, 89, 90, 89, 90, 89
High
91, 91, 91, 92, 91, 91, 91, 91, 91, 92
So why didn't I give him a higher average velocity, like 91 or 92? Looking at some of the SCEA players with just one year of f/x data like Cole or Fernandez, it looks like their primary fastball offering is ~1 MPH higher than what they actually sit at. Fernandez is is at 96 and Cole is at 97 respectively. Brooks Baseball has a neat filtering option called +/- Standard Deviation, which is basically the range which a pitcher sits at most frequently. Here are Cole's and Fernandez's, knocking off .75 MPH to account for the fact that Brooks calculates pitch speed 5 ft closer than MLB:
Cole
Average: 96.26
+/- Standard Deviation: 94.61 - 97.91
Fernandez
Average: 95.34
+/- Standard Deviation: 93.8 - 96.88
So basically Cole sits in the 95 - 98 range and averages 96 MPH while Fernandez sits in the 94 - 97 range and averages 95 MPH
So obviously the next logical step is to take them in to practice mode and run some tests!
Cole 97 MPH
Low
97, 95, 96, 96, 97, 95, 96, 96, 96, 96
High
97, 97, 98, 97, 97, 98, 98, 98, 98, 98
Cole 96.26 MPH
Low
96, 95, 95, 95, 95, 95, 94, 95, 94, 95
High
96, 96, 97, 98, 96, 96, 96, 98, 98, 97
Fernandez 96 MPH
Low
95, 94, 94, 95, 95, 96, 95, 95, 95, 95
High
97, 97, 96, 97, 95, 96, 97, 96, 96, 96
Fernandez 95.34 MPH
Low
94, 94, 95, 94, 94, 94, 95, 95, 94, 95
High
97, 96, 96, 96, 95, 96, 96, 96, 96, 97
So even though SCEA rated their fastballs a little hot the results were pretty much the same in terms of min/max, but obviously the averages are different. The common theme in all of the tests is that the max/min range is fairly small, a 4 MPH bracket. Most SP can go and get an extra 3-4 MPH if they need it, some guys can get even more.
So what is the actual point of this post? Well, for one I would like to see effort incorporated into pulse pitching and second (which is now more apparent after the tests) is to increase the velocity range for SP's, maybe even let us set the ranges manually.
As far as the CPU sitting higher than my own guys, I'm not really sure but it could just be the pitcher being closer to 94 than 93.
So now to open this up for discussion - Is it just pulse that has a small velocity range or is it all pitching methods? Are pitches low in the zone usually not as fast as pitches up? What improvements would you like to see made to pulse pitching next year? Discuss!
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