Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

[extremeskins04]

I've played about 40 games now with my fantasy drafted Orioles and I'm noticing that the CPU pitchers (even if they low to mid 70's OVR) are doing fairly well with alot of wins, strikeouts, and low ERA's.

I've even gone up against some mediocre rated pitchers and they've destroyed me and I consider myself a decent hitter.

I'm wondering if drafting a few top notch pitchers is even worth it because I can get mediocre pitchers (70+ OVR) for CHEAP in the draft so therefore I can just take a lot of excellent hitters/defense in the first 8-10 rounds of the draft.

Ratings don't seem to matter much as far as pitching is concerned.

Your thoughts?

[ey215]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

I've played about 40 games now with my fantasy drafted Orioles and I'm noticing that the CPU pitchers (even if they low to mid 70's OVR) are doing fairly well with alot of wins, strikeouts, and low ERA's.

I've even gone up against some mediocre rated pitchers and they've destroyed me and I consider myself a decent hitter.

I'm wondering if drafting a few top notch pitchers is even worth it because I can get mediocre pitchers (70+ OVR) for CHEAP in the draft so therefore I can just take a lot of excellent hitters/defense in the first 8-10 rounds of the draft.

Ratings don't seem to matter much as far as pitching is concerned.

Your thoughts?

It may be better to draft batters first. A couple of things to consider:

1. Mid-May is still a pretty small sample size as it relates to starting pitchers. For example I give you Aaron Harang who as of now is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA. He hasn't had a sub 4.00 ERA since 2011 (when he was pitching half his games in the run suppressing environment of Petco Park). Can we extrapolate from now that he's put things together? His BABIP is pretty close to his career norm but his SO/9 is almost 2.5 SO/9 higher than his career average. As that number regresses his ERA will likely rise. Though, with the increase in K% among hitters it may not.

There are likely a lot of pitchers with low to mid 70s ratings that have stats that as they regress to career norms will start to be worse than those in the 80s.

2. When you say a lot have you gone through the pitching stats and actually quantified it? It may be that some outliers are skewing your view on the pitching market.

3. When you talk about being destroyed by a guy with mid 70s rating, that's going to happen. It happens in real life and it happens in The Show.

4. If you really want to do some analysis, sim 2014 a couple of times and see if it is an overall trend or just sample size.

With that being said, is focusing on hitting early and having a staff of 70s rated pitchers in a fantasy draft league a viable strategy? I would think it could be.

If playing with a team that plays on the Pacific (SD, SF, LA, OAK, SEA) I would consider it for sure. Half of your team's games will be played in run suppressing environments.

If playing with a team (CIN, COL, TEX) that play in an extreme hitters park I would personally look at having a couple of very good pitchers as your batters are going to get bumped up a bit. With that being said, you could always go with the outscore everyone model and hope it works.

With the Orioles, I do think you could get away with an all 70s pitching staff if you focus on the right ratings. While Camden Yards is a hitters park it mainly gets that from being an extreme HR park. If you have a choice between pitchers with the same OVR and can get one with a higher HR/9 rating it might be a good idea. Especially if you consider that you'll also play a lot of away games against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays who all have stadiums in the top half of HR factor.

If you were to draft a team with a bunch of 70s in the rotation I would consider moving your relief pitching selections up. Don't go overboard, but you're going to want a good bullpen.

Honestly, it comes down to choice. Some people like to balance it out and some like to go heavy in one area. I personally tend to look at value at each pick I make and who is further down the board that I might be able to get if I don't take someone in the top couple of players in OVR at a position.

Either way, thanks for the question. It actually made me put some thought into my draft strategies that I never had before.

[wolfpack23]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

I've played about 40 games now with my fantasy drafted Orioles and I'm noticing that the CPU pitchers (even if they low to mid 70's OVR) are doing fairly well with alot of wins, strikeouts, and low ERA's.

I've even gone up against some mediocre rated pitchers and they've destroyed me and I consider myself a decent hitter.

I'm wondering if drafting a few top notch pitchers is even worth it because I can get mediocre pitchers (70+ OVR) for CHEAP in the draft so therefore I can just take a lot of excellent hitters/defense in the first 8-10 rounds of the draft.

Ratings don't seem to matter much as far as pitching is concerned.

Your thoughts?

1. What sliders are you playing with? Sliders can make a huge difference in differentiating between pitchers like Jose Fernandez (RIP to his elbow) and Dan Straily.

2. Small sample size. Pitchers can go through hot streaks, however, usually they will hit a wall and everything will average back out.

3. I am a fantasy draft buff and I've noticed that I get punished by the CPU if I don't draft a strong staff.

[extremeskins04]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

1. What sliders are you playing with? Sliders can make a huge difference in differentiating between pitchers like Jose Fernandez (RIP to his elbow) and Dan Straily.

2. Small sample size. Pitchers can go through hot streaks, however, usually they will hit a wall and everything will average back out.

3. I am a fantasy draft buff and I've noticed that I get punished by the CPU if I don't draft a strong staff.

1. I'm using Armor & Sword's sliders on All-Star difficulty using Classic pitching and Timing Batting. It works pretty well.

2. I did notice that one of the pitchers that destroyed me who had 79 OVR was on a hot streak at the time. I had to double check his ratings and stuff because he was playing like a King Felix or a Fernandez type pitcher.

3. Yea, but I'm thinking that if I redo my fantasy draft and focus on getting some star hitters, and mediocre pitchers (mid to late 70's), but then get about 2-3 good pitching prospects with A potential that it might work out better.

Maybe I'll focus on getting a top 5 closer, 3-4 great hitters that also play great defense, and then get 2 decent relievers that I may be in good shape. I may not make the playoffs the first year, but once those prospects get up ...i'll be amazing.

Also, ey215 thank you for your input as well. It's much appreciated.

[Brandwin]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

My teams staff (except Matt Harvey) are all you guys high to low 70's rated pitchers I kind of wish I would have grabbed a big bat instead of Harvey now. I thought about actually trading him for another bat. It's a small sample size, but so far my staff has been great.

[wolfpack23]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

1. I'm using Armor & Sword's sliders on All-Star difficulty using Classic pitching and Timing Batting. It works pretty well.

2. I did notice that one of the pitchers that destroyed me who had 79 OVR was on a hot streak at the time. I had to double check his ratings and stuff because he was playing like a King Felix or a Fernandez type pitcher.

3. Yea, but I'm thinking that if I redo my fantasy draft and focus on getting some star hitters, and mediocre pitchers (mid to late 70's), but then get about 2-3 good pitching prospects with A potential that it might work out better.

Maybe I'll focus on getting a top 5 closer, 3-4 great hitters that also play great defense, and then get 2 decent relievers that I may be in good shape. I may not make the playoffs the first year, but once those prospects get up ...i'll be amazing.

Also, ey215 thank you for your input as well. It's much appreciated.

If you redo your draft with that strategy I would just make sure that those bats have high durability so they hardly have to take days off. As far as the pitching goes the bullpen is everything in the show. There is nothing more disheartening than blowing a solid start from your starter. Make sure to draft starters with high stamina and good control. If you can put the ball where you want it and change speeds you can keep the CPU hitters off balance and offset the difference in ratings a bit easier IMO.

[BenGerman]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

I've already done some research on this. The Show is really great at incorporating variance in its game, and this is just another form of that. Better pitchers with higher ratings usually post better stats than lower pitchers with lower ratings. Obviously, that's not always the case (as it would be in real life) because it's a variance dominated game and good + bad luck exist.

Perhaps the most interesting thing I've noticed is that the game seems to recognize when a player is having a good/bad season. So a lot of the times, when it comes to the trade deadline, I dictate my decisions based on how they have played that season.

[wolfpack23]

Re: Fantasy Draft - Drafting 80+ OVR pitchers even worth it?

I've already done some research on this. The Show is really great at incorporating variance in its game, and this is just another form of that. Better pitchers with higher ratings usually post better stats than lower pitchers with lower ratings. Obviously, that's not always the case (as it would be in real life) because it's a variance dominated game and good + bad luck exist.

Perhaps the most interesting thing I've noticed is that the game seems to recognize when a player is having a good/bad season. So a lot of the times, when it comes to the trade deadline, I dictate my decisions based on how they have played that season.

The Show is great at variance in their games. My favorite thing is that player potentials are not locked for younger players. For example, players can outperform expectations and their potential can climb incrementally as a result. I also love that a highly rated player can just have an off year and perform nowhere near expectations. These little things just add another level of immersion to the game.