The umps on variable are dreadful

[nomo17k]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

It's interesting to look at data:






What you can see from the charts, you can say:

(1) the strike zone varies from umpire to umpire, offset in some "systematic" way, e.g., Welke's zone is systematically wider on the outside than McClelland. (in fact they often vary by handedness of pitcher and also the pitcher himself)

(2) near the edge of the strike zone, the pitches can often go either way, and it's basically a coin flip.

(3) they are rare, but there are indeed blatant missed call, even well inside/outside the strike zone.

So the fact that the call seems to be fairly random near the edge of the strike zone, almost as random as coin flip, is just a reflection of reality.

What I don't notice strongly is the umpire to umpire tendency, the systematic "overall offset" of strike zone. I'm sure it's coded in, but I'm yet to find out the clear tendency myself, even after all these games. For example, as a pitcher, I don't feel there is any umpire with which I can consistently get favorable call on pitches just outside of the zone on my way.


The images were borrowed from this article: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=14951

[Mitchrapp]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

Really? And nothing to back that up? Here's an article that says umps are wrong 14% of the calls: http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar...wrong-20140331

And there's a fangraphs post out there that says umps are getting better. I get roughly 10-15 iffy calls per 5 innings pitched on my end. This approximates that umps are wrong anywhere from 20-25% of the time in the Show (in my games at least), which is too high. We're not asking for perfectly called games. Just more consistently called games, which WOULD be realism at its finest.

You might get 10-15 iffy calls per 5 innings I sure don't..a dozen a game per side for me. So for me, it's like MLB. Realism at its finest.

[physicx]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

I've noticed the black umpire calls a ton of strikes below the knee and won't give you anything above the waist. The others are pretty consistent with corners and inside pitches.

[jdeszcz]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

Depending on the count, pitcher's confidence, stats, the hitter, hot zones, and many other variables, hitting the sweet spot on meter does not necessarily denote "executing a perfect pitch."

Just to clarify, and maybe you already were construing it this way, but when I was saying "executing a perfect pitch" I was referring only in regards to location. Velocity, amount if movement/break I thought were determined by many of the other variables you mention. So if hitting the sweet spot on the meter doesn't mean executing the location then what does it mean? What should I be able to expect as a result when I hit the sweet spot?


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[mr23frahee]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

Just to clarify, and maybe you already were construing it this way, but when I was saying "executing a perfect pitch" I was referring only in regards to location. Velocity, amount if movement/break I thought were determined by many of the other variables you mention. So if hitting the sweet spot on the meter doesn't mean executing the location then what does it mean? What should I be able to expect as a result when I hit the sweet spot?


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I don't use meter pitching but it seems like the closer you are to the "sweet spot", the more LIKELY it is that you will hit your spot. If you get it perfect, you'll be very likely, though not certain, to hit your spot.

I use pulse pitching. If I hit x when the circle is at it's smallest, it's more likely to hit the location I aimed for, or at least close. There's also times I hit x when the circle is bigger, usually the pitch misses the intended location by quite a bit, but once in a great while the pitch winds up where I wanted it to go.

Same as hitting. Just because you time the pitch perfectly etc doesn't mean you'll hit a home run, or even hit the ball hard every single time.

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[SVCbearcat10]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

At the risk of coming off like a giant smart ***...have you watched a lot of major league games? I literally have watched thousands upon thousands of games in my 39 year old lifetime. And Umpires are dreadful. well some. and they are far from consistent. one inning they give felix no outside corner...next inning they give the opposing pitcher every corner. Its the way it is. sorry but I disagree with this post COMPLETELY. I love the umps in this gamee. could they be improved on...probably...but it would risk you picking up on their tendancies and using that to your advantage.

Like in real life? Pitchers constantly stretch the strike zone when they know the ump is giving a few inches and they use it to their advantage. If the ump has a small strike zone, hitters take more pitches to use it to their advantage. I've been watching baseball my entire life and usually watch a game per day. Players know the tendencies of umpires (much like having scouting reports on hitters/pitchers) and exploit them to their advantage every at bat.

The umps are fairly consistent, and like you pointed out, they often give the two pitchers in the game a different strike zone. If one is throwing a lot of strikes, the ump often expands the strike zone because of that. If the other has been wild, you'll see that pitcher not get calls the other one would. I see that every game. Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz constantly got strike zones the opposing pitcher could only dream of in the day!

I think the point some people are trying to make in this thread is that while umpires can never be 100% consistent, they have tendencies in real life that either favor the pitcher or the batter. Certain umps you can count on to call pitches a certain way. This does not seem to exist in the Show. The strike zone seems to be randomized every from at bat to at bat.

[jdeszcz]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

I don't use meter pitching but it seems like the closer you are to the "sweet spot", the more LIKELY it is that you will hit your spot. If you get it perfect, you'll be very likely, though not certain, to hit your spot.

I use pulse pitching. If I hit x when the circle is at it's smallest, it's more likely to hit the location I aimed for, or at least close. There's also times I hit x when the circle is bigger, usually the pitch misses the intended location by quite a bit, but once in a great while the pitch winds up where I wanted it to go.

Same as hitting. Just because you time the pitch perfectly etc doesn't mean you'll hit a home run, or even hit the ball hard every single time.

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I get all of that that...it's not that I don't understand how any of it works. But why have a specified "sweet spot" if it means stopping the meter in it only gives you a chance hitting your location? Why not just get rid of the sweet spot and have it that if you are close to the middle you have a better chance of hitting your location (kind of like when the pitchers confidence drops), similar to what you are saying about pulse?

[fsjzhen]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

It's intentional and pretty much perfect. Turn it off if it bugs you.

[fsjzhen]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

It's intentional and pretty much perfect. Turn it off if it bugs you.

[ShaBoomer]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

I get all of that that...it's not that I don't understand how any of it works. But why have a specified "sweet spot" if it means stopping the meter in it only gives you a chance hitting your location? Why not just get rid of the sweet spot and have it that if you are close to the middle you have a better chance of hitting your location (kind of like when the pitchers confidence drops), similar to what you are saying about pulse?

It's not a "sweet spot", it's an accuracy bar. And there are several factors that contribute to accuracy, including the amount of power put into each pitch, and your pitcher's stats (BB/9, Control).

And it works just as you've requested. The closer your release timing is (the closer to the middle of the yellow bar), the better chance you have of hitting your location.

Also, Confidence has little impact on accuracy. As stated in the strategy guide: "Confidence is a factor later in a pitcher's start, by slightly reducing the effects of fatigue so a pitcher can pitch a little longer than usual. It has the smallest influence of all pitcher attributes (BBper9, control, fatigue, etc..), and acts more as a feedback indicator of the pitcher's performance that day."

[NDAlum]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

And the top needs to be lowered.

Not only this but it needs to be lowered more on specific pitches like curve balls.

"I'm gonna try and sneak this curveball chest high and outside" - Said no pitcher ever

[Mitchrapp]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

Not only this but it needs to be lowered more on specific pitches like curve balls.

"I'm gonna try and sneak this curveball chest high and outside" - Said no pitcher ever

The rule, strike zone from the knee to top of the chest. Not sure if it's that way in the rule book anymore..but real umps won't call the high strike but here they do..with much more frequency.

As far as the top lowered, possibly, but then the chest high fastball becomes "in the wheelhouse"

Unless you mean just make the box bigger which is only beneficial to the pitcher.
1968 all over again..

[Pezell04x]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

I've thrown pitches that caught a pretty good part of the plate and the umpire will consistently call it a ball. I Know it's supposed to bring realism to the game but it's a little ridiculous when the pitch is blatantly a strike and the ump is pretty much squeezing you. Has anyone else noticed this?

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There are times I paint the corner with 2 strikes and, like watching a real game, say to my TV "COME ON IT WAS RIGHT THERE!" and there's times where I easily miss the corner and get the call. It is really frustrating when you hit it though and it is a ball.

I like it though - adds some depth and strategy.

[ShaBoomer]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

There are times I paint the corner with 2 strikes and, like watching a real game, say to my TV "COME ON IT WAS RIGHT THERE!" and there's times where I easily miss the corner and get the call. It is really frustrating when you hit it though and it is a ball.

I like it though - adds some depth and strategy.

Exactly! Nobody complains when an incorrect call goes in their favour.

[xKaoTicxLegEndx]

Re: The umps on variable are dreadful

First of all, I want to say that I love the realism by the umps in this game. I couldn't play this game if the ump settings weren't on variable. Like most have stated, I've been saved and burned equally. Here's one of the many instances in which my jaw dropped:

Want to talk about frustrating? Throw 8.2 perfect innings, and then get ahead of the last (27th) hitter 1-2, intentionally miss with the next pitch seeing if the hitter would chase making the count 2-2, then paint the outside corner for two straight pitches only to have both of them be called balls.

I muttered to myself "Jim Joyce does it again" .. haha.