Can someone please explain player regression to me?

[underdog13]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

Ultimately, I would love either a performance based progression/regression system.

I've never understood this train of thought...someone want to explain it to me? Isn't a rich get richer poor get poorer kinda of deal? Guys bats .350 and 50hr's is he suppose to have his ovr go up and next year bat .400?

[seanjeezy]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I've never understood this train of thought...someone want to explain it to me? Isn't a rich get richer poor get poorer kinda of deal? Guys bats .350 and 50hr's is he suppose to have his ovr go up and next year bat .400?

Same, which is why I'm a little skeptical of the new system. I voiced my concern in the other thread on the possibility of human (our) weaknesses effecting the system, i.e. if I personally struggle with plate discipline will that have an adverse effect on my players.

We already have the "stock is rising" emails which is basically performance based progression, for me that is good enough. Stats should be a product of ratings and not the other way around. If anyone needs a convincing example, look up Sandy Madera on fangraphs. He was the best hitter in minor league baseball last year.

Spoiler

lol

[cardinalbird5]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

Performance should just play a role with confidence. It shouldn't change their raw abilities over night.

[tessl]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

Same, which is why I'm a little skeptical of the new system. I voiced my concern in the other thread on the possibility of human (our) weaknesses effecting the system, i.e. if I personally struggle with plate discipline will that have an adverse effect on my players.

We already have the "stock is rising" emails which is basically performance based progression, for me that is good enough. Stats should be a product of ratings and not the other way around. If anyone needs a convincing example, look up Sandy Madera on fangraphs. He was the best hitter in minor league baseball last year.

Spoiler

lol

I tend to agree and we will have to wait to see how it is implemented because no details were given.

My concern is in manage mode in mlbts 14 the sim engine and game engine were not the same and produced different results - I played 162 on default sliders and my team was last in most hitting categories and first in most pitching categories. If progression is based on performance that will produce a skewed result with my pitchers progressing rapidly and my position players regressing just as rapidly.

I wonder if this means an end to training and potential or if progression is only one factor.

Are factors such as age relative to level taken into account or does a 23 year old guy hitting .300 in A ball progress the same as a 23 year old guy in MLB hitting .300? If that is the case then the easiest way to progress your prospects is to leave them in the low minors where they will put up big numbers - or do the players have "personalities" and will become unhappy if left in the low minors which would negatively impact their performance?

I know some were arguing for performance based progression and the devs do listen to input from the customers but if they haven't worked through all these issues there could be a big downside to performance based progression in franchise mode.

[nomo17k]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

...

We already have the "stock is rising" emails which is basically performance based progression, for me that is good enough. Stats should be a product of ratings and not the other way around. If anyone needs a convincing example, look up Sandy Madera on fangraphs. He was the best hitter in minor league baseball last year.

Spoiler

lol

Just out of curiosity, how is Sandy Madera a good example for your argument?

Whenever I see stats like he has, I feel sad and lament the unfairness of this cruel world we live in...

[ghostofsparta15]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

Not a bug but messed up for sure. Once a player hits 31 or 32 you may as well go ahead and trade them. I have seen players fall from 90 to 65 in one year. Givers they were late 30s but that's still just a bit much.

That pretty much describes Joe Nathan from 2013 to 2014...

[seanjeezy]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

Just out of curiosity, how is Sandy Madera a good example for your argument?

Whenever I see stats like he has, I feel sad and lament the unfairness of this cruel world we live in...

I think I'm just trying to say that a player's environment has a heavy influence on his stats, and that The Show isn't well equipped to interpret the differences between someone batting .300 in AA and .300 in rookie ball. Maybe if the game had league-weighted stats and park factors I wouldn't be so skeptical of a performance-based progression system working like how people think it would work, so yeah... Maybe these examples would better suit my argument:

*I've purposefully omitted the minor league affiliate since The Show doesn't take park factors into account.


Player A: 20 y.o. .307/.347/.467

Player B: 18 y.o. .247/.322/.466


Who had a better year/which player had a higher wRC+?

Another one:

Player A: 22 y.o. .291/.376/.517

Player B: 22 y.o. .326/.381/.615

Who had a better year/which player had a higher wRC+?

[rjackson]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I thought you were voicing a concern that performance progression means that a player who would have really low ratings like Madera would suddenly get a big jump in ratings after the sim said he slashed 403/477/696. Sort of like the tail wagging the dog.


I am going to wait until I hear more about this system before I make an opinion on it.

[seanjeezy]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I thought you were voicing a concern that performance progression means that a player who would have really low ratings like Madera would suddenly get a big jump in ratings after the sim said he slashed 403/477/696. Sort of like the tail wagging the dog.


I am going to wait until I hear more about this system before I make an opinion on it.

kinda, which loosely ties into my point that basing progression on stats is a slippery slope.

To expand on the examples I made in my previous post, I gave the slash lines of 4 mariners farmhands - Gabby Guerrero, Tyler O'Neill, Austin Wilson, and DJ Peterson. Guerrero and Peterson played in High Desert (notorious for being an extreme hitters park) while O'Neill and Wilson played in Clinton (slight pitchers park with the league overall being a pitchers league).

So revisiting the stats but this time looking solely at wRC+ and wOBA, we get this:

Player A (Guerrero): 110 wRC+, .355 wOBA
Player B (O'Neill): 124 wRC+, .357 wOBA

Player A (Wilson): 153 wRC+, .402 wOBA
Player B (Peterson): 154 wRC+, .424 wOBA

So O'Neill was superior to Guerrero while Wilson and Peterson were about the same, but you wouldn't ever come to this conclusion looking at their slash lines.

So basically my worry is that since the Show is stuck in the stone age when it comes to stats, players will progress based on slash lines that don't tell the whole story. I agree that it is far too early to go full on panic mode, which is why I am skeptical and/or wary

[nomo17k]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I think I'm just trying to say that a player's environment has a heavy influence on his stats, and that The Show isn't well equipped to interpret the differences between someone batting .300 in AA and .300 in rookie ball. Maybe if the game had league-weighted stats and park factors I wouldn't be so skeptical of a performance-based progression system working like how people think it would work, so yeah... Maybe these examples would better suit my argument:

*I've purposefully omitted the minor league affiliate since The Show doesn't take park factors into account.


Player A: 20 y.o. .307/.347/.467

Player B: 18 y.o. .247/.322/.466


Who had a better year/which player had a higher wRC+?

Another one:

Player A: 22 y.o. .291/.376/.517

Player B: 22 y.o. .326/.381/.615

Who had a better year/which player had a higher wRC+?

The Show is equipped (though not sure about "well") to interpret the differences between .300 in AA and .300 in MLB, as the league at these levels do usually come close to somewhere in the .250 - .270 range in the game, though their attribute values are obviously different. The attribute ratings reflect the "true" ability of players in this game, so the game can always refer to what true ability level it internally wants to assign to a particular player without being fooled by what stats actually gets generated.

I think your concern is more relevant in how the real-life stats are converted into in-game ratings, as some park factors in the game are (in my eyes) not as well reflected as we see in real life, and the simulation engine (as opposed to the gameplay) doesn't appear to factor them in at all. That means some players who excel at a place like Coors tend to get overrated in the game, which would be necessary to get the stats line more in sync with reality because the in-game Coors doesn't inflate their stats like the real-life counterpart does.

The same could be said of evaluating minor leaguers, but the SCEA rosters don't really rate any minor leaguers so the point is moot... :P

When I looked at Madera's lines, my immediate though was that he was a classic case of "never really given a chance," and he could have been a serviceable MLB hitter if somebody gave him that chance. I don't have as much experience looking at MiLB stats so I don't really understand all the nuances in his MiLB numbers specifically, but to me someone who can *consistently* hit like .330 at a AA-AAA level doesn't seem to be deserving of a "really low rating" like rjackson suggests. But what if Madera actually gets rated by the in-game stats-rating conversion system to be a decent MLB player, and CPU manager has hard time keeping him in minors for the reality's sake for OSers? Or can you definitively say Madera should not be rated as MLB caliber? I think it's not very simple, because in reality player evaluation involves both objective and subjective measures, but in game the truth is exposed in attribute ratings and CPU manages using the numbers and (simple) logic.



As for performance-based progression, it is generally not a good idea, as it is backward... there may be various reasons why a player is perceived as performing well, but a statement "he is a better performer now, because he has performed well the past few months" is kinda circular and doesn't explain anything... any usually there are (both perceived and not clearly perceived) reasons why a player improves drastically. The reason why stats like BABIP and FIP have been introduced is to show that quite a bit of variation in performance can be explained by natural luck... As such, letting potentially random factors affect intrinsic abilities (expressed via attribute ratings) would only make the progression system unreliable and unstable.

[TattooedEvil]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I've never understood this train of thought...someone want to explain it to me? Isn't a rich get richer poor get poorer kinda of deal? Guys bats .350 and 50hr's is he suppose to have his ovr go up and next year bat .400?

ur probably thinking I'm referring to the 90+ OVR guys. Obviously if I hit .350 and 50 HRs with Trout he's gonna already b around that overall. Who's to say just cuz his contact goes from 80 to 90 cuz of a hot season i cant go crazy cold the next season and hit .260? But what if I have some crazy season with a 24 yr 60 OVR player and hit .330 and have a 20/20 season? obviously he shouldnt be a 64 OVR the next season. Should easily b a solid increase. Think that **** can't happen?? In my Giants season I put McGehee on the 15 day DL cuz of a shoulder injury and guess what happened? I went absolutely insane with Joaquin Arias. Hit .400 in April and now in June he's still my best average hitter ranging from .310-.320 and hes a 65 overall at 30 years old. Supposed his numbers stick around .300 and solid defense which he has been exactly that. Tell me why he couldnt go into the next Spring Training at 70-75 Overall instead of going into a decline or hitting a wall just because he'll be 31. If he was going to be 35 then obviously it wouldnt climb, but 31 is a just fine age....especially for a player with low wear and tear. Either way......we got performance based progression coming....

[tabarnes19_SDS]

Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I am not a fan of performance based progression and honestly have to idea how it is being implemented, but Nomo hit it on the head when he said it was backwards.

There are a lot of factors that play into stats including luck, injury and opportunity. In real life players have ceilings and I hope that is accounted for. I stopped playing Madden because of xp, it's the most unrealistic progression system out there.

A little game. Tell me how you think this player should regress based on performance;

1. started at 90 ovl. 28 years old. .217 with a .654 OPS and 18 home runs.

Player 2. 88 ovl. 30 year old. .215 with a .594 OPS finish as the fifth worst qualified hitter.

3. 93 ovl. .238 28 Homers at age 33.

So based on the argument a low rated player should see large gains with good stats, these players should see large drops as well then.

By the way those players are.
1. Jay Bruce
2. Allen Craig
3. David Ortiz

[Knight165]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I'm REALLY.....REALLY.....REALLY not a fan of stat/performance based progression/regression.
The idea of it is totally off base IMO....but I'll reserve judgement until I see how they implemented it.
I can't see them going with an all out stat/perf drive on it....it's got to be a mix of factors.
We'll see and if so I hope the balance is good.

God...so many examples of how stats from one year don't translate into performance(ratings) the next....and especially expectations(ratings/potential) DO NOT translate into performance all the time.
There has to be some randomness in it for it to be realistic.



M.K
Knight165

[HypoLuxa13]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

I am going to wait until I hear more about this system before I make an opinion on it.

This. I'm thinking the progression from performance will not be as simple as some are thinking it will, where just a plain performance evaluation determines ratings progression/regression. I'm assuming (or at least hoping) there is a lot more to the story than this.

[rjackson]

Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

You know, all this talk and it could very well just mean that is Adam is hitting .230 in AAA and Bill is hitting .300 in AA, Bill and Adam are switching levels. That's it. It might not have anything to do with potential ratings at all.


For the record Nomo, I didn't intend to imply that he deserved bad ratings as he is an unknown quantity for most people. Just that was what I got out of the reference to him.