Player Regression

[Rs31632]

So I am doing a fantasy draft and am really looking into nelson cruz 6th/7th round... but I am concerned with his age (34) and potential regression. I know guys 37-40 will go down in the spring but does that extend to guys 33-35ish as well?

If he will wont re-gress then thats a solid 7th round pick.. if he will then forget it

[Mck23tyler]

Re: Player Regression

Wait age 37-40 regresse in spring training!? That's kinda BS

[jaysfan17]

Re: Player Regression

I started the thread "Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)". Could you post your concerns there? I'm trying to raise awareness for this issue.


Thanks

[Shuckman]

Re: Player Regression

There are some flaws but the flaws seem pretty hard to code. You got superstar players that seem to play at a high level for a long time and you got superstar players that burn out at a younger age in their prime so how can a system manage both? How does a system predict the future? My Idea is maybe assign players a regression attribute so we can adjust this to as we see fit. So that would allow us to for example Adjust David Ortiz regression attribute down to say like 10 and really slow his regression down. And on the flip side a player like Josh Hamilton since he has been hurt a lot and has off the field issues we could set his attribute to say 70 and start to erode his overall.

[geisterhome]

Re: Player Regression

So I am doing a fantasy draft and am really looking into nelson cruz 6th/7th round... but I am concerned with his age (34) and potential regression. I know guys 37-40 will go down in the spring but does that extend to guys 33-35ish as well?

If he will wont re-gress then thats a solid 7th round pick.. if he will then forget it

From what I have seen: till 33 very low risk of regression
34 it's 50/50 chance that the player will regress
35 very high risk of regression (few still don't!)