Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

[nomo17k]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Batting average is one thing - but does it impact OPS/OBP/SLG?

Does clutch impact things like discipline or vision? Does it make hits "harder" or "softer"?

I would imagine it has the same effect as changing (Contact and other) attribute ratings. I don't think it adds anything more different.

I am not exactly sure if Clutch affects other ratings... I could only get the stats tallied by the game and the game doesn't track a whole a lot of split stats.

I wouldn't be surprised if it affects things like Power, Vision, Discipline though. It's small enough boost that for most players you won't actually feel the difference.

[KBLover]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Just got in the game and looked up my AVG/RISP stats.

As a team, we're hitting .277 in the situation.

Chris Davis is leading the way with a .355 RISP BA. Carlos Gonzalez at .331, Ozuna at .324.

Stanton is at .207 (ouch). Solano at .229, Baldwin at .164, Cruz at .229, Colin Moran at .200 (not surprised). Baldwin and Cruz are rookies (if that matters). Moran hasn't hit much of anything at all in general this season.

I guess if two guys are going to lead the AVG/RISP category, having it be your #3 and #4 hitters is what you want

[thaSLAB]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

That's pretty amazing that it's not higher, actually. I mean, REALLY shocking that basic baseball fundamentals fail that often in MLB, multiple times (which has to happen when you get more than one out to move a runner that last 90 feet). Especially in the NL which places a higher importance on advancing runners.

Any idea what inning that was in? I can go back and watch it through MLB.tv (assuming it wasn't ESPN or MLB Network) and I was curious if there was any additional discussion in the booth on that topic.

It was during the bottom of the 5th inning. Duda was batting against Lincecum... on the SNY feed, of course. I happened to be watching SNY because it was the featured game on MLB.tv, so it defaulted to the home feed (Giants are starred as one of my fave teams).

I remember he did get the sac fly RBI, and they appealed unsuccessfully that Niese left early from third. And there were actually a few things that were very CPU-ish for the Mets in that inning.

Edit:

I fired up MLB.tv real quick and snapped a screen...

Spoiler

htcONE [M8] 5.0 | Tapatalk

[NEOPARADIGM]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

I played a game last night with this thread in mind. The goal was that I was going to record my at-bats and post them here for "evidence"; turns out I accidentally deleted the first inning so I didn't bother with editing the video, but I scored runs in seven of eight innings, knocked out the SP after 6 ER on 6 hits and 77 pitches (3.0 innings), and finished with 12 runs on 15 hits. Was maybe my best game since buying the game.

I mention this because the added pressure of "make sure every at-bat is a good at-bat, I'm showing this to the public" makes a monumental difference to your approach at the plate, to the point where you should begin to understand why so many people argue these situational "problems" are user-related.

Going through the motions and relying on motor-memory skills to "get good timing on a pitch in the zone" vs. ACTUALLY seeing the ball, ACTUALLY waiting for "your" pitch, and ACTUALLY getting the barrel of the bat on the ball - this is the difference between "too many popouts" and having a good game at the dish.

Good luck.

[kehlis]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Does this happen too much throughout the whole game or is it what you would consider a normal rate for any part of the game that doesn't involve runners in scoring position.

Does it happen to the cpu with runners in scoring position at the same rate it happens to you?

Since this question went ignored I decided to go ahead and track actual findings to see how popups trend throughout an entire game.

I tracked this over 5 games. I recorded pop ups with runners in scoring position versus pop ups in any other situation (for both the CPU and for me). I also tracked how many solid hits I got with runners in scoring position that resulted in RBI's.


CPU Pop ups in situations with no runners in scoring position:

Game 1: 2
Game 2: 1
Game 3: 2
Game 4: 2
Game 5: 0

Total: 7


Cpu Pop Ups with RISP:

Game 1: 2
Game 2: 1
Game 3: 0
Game 4: 0
Game 5: 0

Total: 3


Human Pop ups with no RISP:

Game 1: 0
Game 2: 0
Game 3: 2
Game 4: 1
Game 5: 1

Total: 4


Human pop ups with RISP:

Game 1: 0
Game 2: 0
Game 3: 2
Game 4: 1
Game 5: 1

Total: 4


Human Solid Hits resulting in RBI's (with RISP ONLY)

Game 1: 3
Game 2: 1
Game 3: 1
Game 4: 3
Game 5: 1

Total: 9



I'm not going to over analyze the numbers but since nothing has been presented to show there's anything behind the accusation that there are too many pop ups with runners in scoring position this pretty much shows that to be a completely false accusation.

[Steven78]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Yeah I just think it happens a tad too much anytime, not just with RISP.

People are probably just more aware of it with RISP since they fail at a scoring opportunity.

[kehlis]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Yeah I just think it happens a tad too much anytime, not just with RISP.

People are probably just more aware of it with RISP since they fail at a scoring opportunity.

That was my thought as well which is why I wanted to track it.


I will say though that after actually paying attention to it I don't think there was as many pop ups as I thought there was.

[Steven78]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Maybe it's all just a "perception is reality" thing.

[Steven78]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Kehlis one thing I think you may have missed is the number of opportunities for each situation to gage the percentage that it was happening at.

[kehlis]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

Kehlis one thing I think you may have missed is the number of opportunities for each situation to gage the percentage that it was happening at.

There are quite a few things I missed as it wasn't meant to be an exact study. There hasn't been anything at all given though, I just wanted to give somewhat of a baseline.

If PAD still wants to refute those numbers he can do the work.

[saucerset]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

From MLB.com I took the top 400 players average with runners in scoring position. The average BA with runners in scoring position is .249

Joe Mauer with 60 ABs has a .417 BA with runners in scoring position
Ian Desmond with 54 ABs is hitting .130 RISP

I don't know if it makes a difference at all but out of all the ABs so far in the 2015 (30,000+) season, only 12% have resulted in an RBI. (from baseball reference.com)

[MLB Bob]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

From MLB.com I took the top 400 players average with runners in scoring position. The average BA with runners in scoring position is .249

Joe Mauer with 60 ABs has a .417 BA with runners in scoring position
Ian Desmond with 54 ABs is hitting .130 RISP

I don't know if it makes a difference at all but out of all the ABs so far in the 2015 (30,000+) season, only 12% have resulted in an RBI. (from baseball reference.com)

As you can see the problem with RISP comps is the small sample size. Anything under 100 ABs is pretty hit and miss and until theres a larger sample you can`t rely on the data too much because it can/will fluctuate fairly quickly. Its good to know.

What I tend to do is gather historical data in samples big enough to see some stability. Also the batter cant control who gets on in front of him and how many outs there are..so it makes it really hard to pin down any skill involved with RISP.

In this case we're just looking for frequency no matter the player so that info is most useful but individual player averages doesnt say much.

[saucerset]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

This is for the 2014 season with batters at 100 AB or more. It ended up being 161 players. (I couldn't get it to format across) It still comes down to just over 1 out of every 4 ABs with RISP will the batter get a hit, on average. The low end was .145 up to .376

BA
0.271931677

OBP
0.351509317

SLG
0.426161491

[MLB Bob]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

So I did some number crunching for a basis to compare findings to. This data doesnt tell us anything about The Show unless someone tracks their results and compares them to the data baselines provided.

The difference between LD%, Pop Up % (IFFB%) and Batting AVG with RISP and not, .001 or .1% thats over the last 13 years. There is some variance from year to year, such as, LD% varied around 4% y2y at its high but IFFB% 1.5% at its high. BA varied roughly 2%, and had a difference from BA with RISP and not by .002 or .2%

All that said it shows theres almost NO DIFFERENCE between results with or with out RISP.

Now the numbers. LD% (the amount if balls in play that were Line Drives) 20%

The number of IFFB (the number of fly balls that were Pop ups) 3.7%

Avg with RISP .262, and without .260

if your player is batting .300, he should be batting .300 with RISP. If not hes unlucky or hasnt had enough chances to even out his stats.

so id suggest not looking at individual players and just gather info on a team by team basis and see if Pop ups happen more often in game than IRL in general..same with LD's and RISP as a team.

[KBLover]

Re: Can we stop already with the RISP less-than-2-outs popouts and line outs?

The number of IFFB (the number of fly balls that were Pop ups) 3.7%

In my games at least, it's much higher than this on both sides.

It could be my sliders *shrug*.

Maybe I should put solid hits at 10 and see!