MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

So after year 3 there are a few things already catching my eye. The 3rd year only had 4 batters with an average above .300, 1 above .310 which was a .312. Another thing that is catching my eye is the retirees. So far there have been 15 players retire due to injury (4 year 1, 4 year 2, and 7 in year 4). One last notable is the caliber of some players retiring, for example year 3 saw I. Kinsler 35 years old 86 Ovr, Fister 34 years old 87 Ovr, Y. Molina 35 years old 82 Ovr, and Wainwright 36 years old 84 Ovr.

Again this is just a glimpse of what is going on and things could change in the next 7 seasons. Also I would like to add that I did turn scouting on for this. I understand that drastically affects the ratings of prospect, but this will give us a good comparison to how well the new scouting system is/isn't implemented in MLB 16.

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[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

So in year 4 I just had something weird happen for the first time. I was simming in September and I got the notification that I had an important message. I said no to stop simming and a few days later I got the notification again. This time I stopped to see what it was.......the Nationals placed Harper on the waiver wire! I tried to claim him think it was a revocable waiver and unfortunately I got him since it was an outright waiver.

So four years through and already we are seeing franchise rear it's ugly head. Seeing that I have never had that happen before I am hoping it is just some weird quirk but I am obviously going to be keeping an eye on that now as well.

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[R9NALD9]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Super disappointed to hear this...

Was planning on focusing on franchise this year. I alternate from year to year between Rtts and Franchise. 15 was Rtts year, and this year I was super excited for franchise...seems I'll have to wait for a patch.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Super disappointed to hear this...

Was planning on focusing on franchise this year. I alternate from year to year between Rtts and Franchise. 15 was Rtts year, and this year I was super excited for franchise...seems I'll have to wait for a patch.

Im pretty sure he is testing with 15 right now.

[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Super disappointed to hear this...

Was planning on focusing on franchise this year. I alternate from year to year between Rtts and Franchise. 15 was Rtts year, and this year I was super excited for franchise...seems I'll have to wait for a patch.

Im pretty sure he is testing with 15 right now.

Yup I am just testing 15 right now so no need to worry I am 5 seasons done so far and will keep posting things I find notable as I get through to year 10. I did notice that Matt Harvey went from a 94 to an 88 overall from the ages of 29 to 30 and Syndegard (sorry for the spelling, I'm not at my tv) also dropped off in year 5. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, I just figured I'd let you guys know so you can post your thoughts.

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[R9NALD9]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Yup I am just testing 15 right now so no need to worry I am 5 seasons done so far and will keep posting things I find notable as I get through to year 10. I did notice that Matt Harvey went from a 94 to an 88 overall from the ages of 29 to 30 and Syndegard (sorry for the spelling, I'm not at my tv) also dropped off in year 5. I'm not saying that's a bad thing, I just figured I'd let you guys know so you can post your thoughts.

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Well high fiving myself for overreacting. That sure is a relief!

[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Hey OS community,

I apologize for the delay since I last updated you guys on this experiment. Between working on my car stereo, having the girl over, watching the Badgers epically choke, and homework I haven't given myself much time to work on this haha. I might be able to finish simming everything tonight after work otherwise assuming I don't work on Monday I should have everything done before MLB 16 comes out at 12ET.

Thank you for your patience and have a wonderful Easter everyone!!!!

[Greencollarbaseball]

MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Hopefully 16 finds the middle ground with pitchers and hitters. In 14 most threw low to mid 80's and everyone hit over .300, in 15 most threw mid to high 90's and everyone barely reached .300.


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[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Hopefully 16 finds the middle ground with pitchers and hitters. In 14 most threw low to mid 80's and everyone hit over .300, in 15 most threw mid to high 90's and everyone barely reached .300.


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Yea that is what I'm hoping as well. I'm going to school for accounting so as you would figure I'm big into numbers. That being said it really bugs me seeing that only 5 players bat above .300 and most the league has an ERA lower than 4.00 for pitchers.

I'm not going to go as in depth as I originally wanted to for 15 due to time issues, but here is what I want to highlight:
Average SP overall in MLB rotation
Average overall of number 5 starters
Average velocity and control for SP
Number of players above .300 batting average
Notable players retiring too early based on age and overall together
Total injury retired players every year (it's alarming in my opinion)

If there is anything else you guys want me to look at please let me know. I have every year saved so I can always go back and look at everything.

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[newmich]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Alright guys, it took me a few hours but I finally got all the stats and ratings figured out. As I mentioned in the post above there was a few things I was looking at. So without further procrastination here we go....oh look a bunny!

1.) So the first thing I said I was going to look at was the average overall for a starting pitcher in a five man rotation. When a franchise first starts the average overall in a rotation is 81. When you start the 11th season the overall bumps up to 90!

2) Ok so the average pitcher overall is going up, but how is the weakest link doing. The average overall for a #5 starter in a rotation was 76 to start. Simulate to the start of the 11th season and the #5 starter is an 86 overall on average. That a mean rotation man hahaah

3.) Alright so lets break down the ratings a little bit more. The first thing I looked at was a pitchers control rating. On average a pitcher had a 62 control rating to start. Sim 11 years and that bumped up to 71. So not to bad of an increase.

4.) The big question people had was the velocity rating and man were the results shocking. To start the average velocity rating of a SP was a 68 rating. Sim 11 years and man were these guys throwing gas!! In year 11 the average velocity rating of a starting pitcher was a rating of.....91!!!!

5.) Now that we got the ratings down lets look at the stats. According to mlb.com the average number of batters that hit .300 or higher a year for the last 10 years was 28 batters a year. According to MLB 15 only an average of 7 batters hit .300 or higher a year in a 10 year simulation.

6.) Also according to mlb.com in the last 10 years the best batting average is .351, well the show is a pitcher friendly universe in 15 and a 10 year simulation shows the best batting average is on average .322.

7.) Another issue I had was players retiring prematurely. I saw the likes of Kershaw retire with a 94 overall at the age of 34, Bumgarner with a 91 overall at 34, Greinke a 94 overall at 35. and other good players left early. I know it is based off of contracts but I would think these players might sign a 1 or 2 year contract.

8.) Besides the velocity rating, another thing I found alarming was the number of players retiring due to injury. During the 10 year simulation I saw 57 players retire from injuries, that is around 6 players a year which I think is really high.

9.) Finally the last thing I noticed was that some players did still regress too much too soon. For instance by the age of 29 Jose Fernandez was a 77 overall, Harper at 29 dropped to an 83, Harvey and Syndegard also dropped in rating before they hit 30.

Hopefully this was useful for you all and I will have stats from 16 as soon as I can.

[TD_21]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

So this is for 15? It looks like the method of dropping 10 points of potential from all prospects and future drafted SPs works then, since the overalls are off by about 10.

Thanks for putting in the effort on this. Using the same method we should come up with a fix (if needed) to 16's progression issues fairly quickly.

[Greencollarbaseball]

MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

(null)
SP strikeout numbers and K/9 rating. Also the age of some of the superstars, are most in their 30's or are there some young studs (rated 90+) like now in real life. Can you compare both 15 and 16 in this respect. Thanks.

[tessl]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

It's early but so far I'm not a fan. Coming out of spring training Braun was -3 power vs lhp.

-3 following spring training?

[TheWarmWind]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Yeah so I'm 8 games into the 2017 season of my carry over save and ALL of my players having taken a hit to ratings, including guys who are happy and performing well. I've got a guy who's hitting .500 with a .667 OBP and he's already in freefall for his ratings. 8 games! WTF!

[Kalkano]

Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progression/Regression Thread

Alright guys, it took me a few hours but I finally got all the stats and ratings figured out. As I mentioned in the post above there was a few things I was looking at. So without further procrastination here we go....oh look a bunny!

1.) So the first thing I said I was going to look at was the average overall for a starting pitcher in a five man rotation. When a franchise first starts the average overall in a rotation is 81. When you start the 11th season the overall bumps up to 90!

2) Ok so the average pitcher overall is going up, but how is the weakest link doing. The average overall for a #5 starter in a rotation was 76 to start. Simulate to the start of the 11th season and the #5 starter is an 86 overall on average. That a mean rotation man hahaah

3.) Alright so lets break down the ratings a little bit more. The first thing I looked at was a pitchers control rating. On average a pitcher had a 62 control rating to start. Sim 11 years and that bumped up to 71. So not to bad of an increase.

4.) The big question people had was the velocity rating and man were the results shocking. To start the average velocity rating of a SP was a 68 rating. Sim 11 years and man were these guys throwing gas!! In year 11 the average velocity rating of a starting pitcher was a rating of.....91!!!!

5.) Now that we got the ratings down lets look at the stats. According to mlb.com the average number of batters that hit .300 or higher a year for the last 10 years was 28 batters a year. According to MLB 15 only an average of 7 batters hit .300 or higher a year in a 10 year simulation.

6.) Also according to mlb.com in the last 10 years the best batting average is .351, well the show is a pitcher friendly universe in 15 and a 10 year simulation shows the best batting average is on average .322.

7.) Another issue I had was players retiring prematurely. I saw the likes of Kershaw retire with a 94 overall at the age of 34, Bumgarner with a 91 overall at 34, Greinke a 94 overall at 35. and other good players left early. I know it is based off of contracts but I would think these players might sign a 1 or 2 year contract.

8.) Besides the velocity rating, another thing I found alarming was the number of players retiring due to injury. During the 10 year simulation I saw 57 players retire from injuries, that is around 6 players a year which I think is really high.

9.) Finally the last thing I noticed was that some players did still regress too much too soon. For instance by the age of 29 Jose Fernandez was a 77 overall, Harper at 29 dropped to an 83, Harvey and Syndegard also dropped in rating before they hit 30.

Hopefully this was useful for you all and I will have stats from 16 as soon as I can.

Man, before I read the last sentence of your post, I thought this was all from 16. My heart was sinking...