MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

[Mattchu12]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I keep going back and forth on whether to keep Brett Gardner and let Matt Holliday DH, or to keep Brian McCann and let Holliday play LF. Obviously, Holliday in the outfield isn't very fun, but McCann had a huge year for me, and I love the idea of having him splitting time behind the plate with Sanchez rather than using someone like Austin Romine or whoever.

Personally, I'm leaning towards dealing Gardner. He hit .277/.329/.388 with 9 home runs, 33 RBI, and 62 SB for a ShowWAR of 1.66 (really dogged by some unfortunate caught-stealing).

Right now, teams that could use an outfielder include: BAL, CLE, DET, OAK, SEA, TEX, SF.

Thoughts on what makes sense for a trade?

In the wake of the Adam Eaton deal, I've been thinking about a Gardner to SF deal that revolves around Tyler Beede and/or Christian Arroyo, thoughts? I've been seeing a lot of chatter about potential fits for Gardner with both of those names brought up, some with both of those names going back to New York.

I mean we're talking about #81 (Beede) and #56 (Arroyo) here for Gardner, who is obviously lesser than Eaton whom picked up #4 (Giolito), #48 (Lopez), and their first round pick in Dunning. Is there a deal there?

Also curious about what it might take to get Sonny Gray after he had the following season:

11-13, 5.01 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 3.01 ShowWAR.

And here, I was thinking something like Reynaldo Lopez (I picked him up in a different trade midseason), Jorge Mateo, Tyler Wade, and Johnny Barbato. Thoughts?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

In the wake of the Adam Eaton deal, I've been thinking about a Gardner to SF deal that revolves around Tyler Beede and/or Christian Arroyo, thoughts? I've been seeing a lot of chatter about potential fits for Gardner with both of those names brought up, some with both of those names going back to New York.

I mean we're talking about #81 (Beede) and #56 (Arroyo) here for Gardner, who is obviously lesser than Eaton whom picked up #4 (Giolito), #48 (Lopez), and their first round pick in Dunning. Is there a deal there?



And here, I was thinking something like Reynaldo Lopez (I picked him up in a different trade midseason), Jorge Mateo, Tyler Wade, and Johnny Barbato. Thoughts?

Gardner is 33 and has 3 years and 35.5 million left on his deal. He had 2.4 WAR last year and is in an age bracket where projected decline will happen. At his age an expectation is to lose .5 WAR per season, especially a guy built on speed and defense which are tools that decline the soonest.

WAR projections and surplus values. I'll use $9 for WAR in 2017, $9.4 in 2018 and $9.9 in 2019 per http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gaugi...tin-verlander/

I start with his Steamer projection for 2016 and work from there.
2017 WAR 1.6 x 9= 14.4 - 12 = 2.4 million in surplus
2018 WAR 1.1 x 9.4 = 10.34 - 11 = -.66 in negative value
2019 WAR .6 x 9.9 = 5.94 - 12.5 = -6.56 in negative value

Now if you agreed with this path, then you wouldn't exercise the 2019 option and that leaves a whopping 1.74 in surplus value for his next two seasons.

Basically, you aren't getting any prospect near a top-100 list for Gardner. Best option would be useful reliever or maybe a high priced pitcher. Some offseason ideas were Gardner for Jaime Garcia or Gio Gonzalez as the framework for a deal

[Mattchu12]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Gardner is 33 and has 3 years and 35.5 million left on his deal. He had 2.4 WAR last year and is in an age bracket where projected decline will happen. At his age an expectation is to lose .5 WAR per season, especially a guy built on speed and defense which are tools that decline the soonest.

WAR projections and surplus values. I'll use $9 for WAR in 2017, $9.4 in 2018 and $9.9 in 2019 per http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/gaugi...tin-verlander/

I start with his Steamer projection for 2016 and work from there.
2017 WAR 1.6 x 9= 14.4 - 12 = 2.4 million in surplus
2018 WAR 1.1 x 9.4 = 10.34 - 11 = -.66 in negative value
2019 WAR .6 x 9.9 = 5.94 - 12.5 = -6.56 in negative value

Now if you agreed with this path, then you wouldn't exercise the 2019 option and that leaves a whopping 1.74 in surplus value for his next two seasons.

Basically, you aren't getting any prospect near a top-100 list for Gardner. Best option would be useful reliever or maybe a high priced pitcher. Some offseason ideas were Gardner for Jaime Garcia or Gio Gonzalez as the framework for a deal

WAR is definitely harsh on Gardner, whom I would say is significantly better than his defensive metrics have implied, but fair enough. I still feel like in a world that Eaton acquires two top-50 prospects plus a first rounder, Gardner should be able to get a top 100 prospect in the latter half of the list, but that's me.

Any thought about the Gray deal?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

WAR is definitely harsh on Gardner, whom I would say is significantly better than his defensive metrics have implied, but fair enough. I still feel like in a world that Eaton acquires two top-50 prospects plus a first rounder, Gardner should be able to get a top 100 prospect in the latter half of the list, but that's me.

Any thought about the Gray deal?

You could probably get away with a back end 100 guy like Beede. My issue was asking for him and Arroyo but I see it may have been some poor comprehension on my end. Either way, you won't get anything else of significant with Beede though. Like a C prospect. I think you're overselling Gardner and underselling Eaton. Gardner has never been a 6 WAR guy and is already 33. Thats like saying since Chris Sale got Moncada in a deal Julio Teheran could get a Benintendi type.

As far as Gray, switch Barbato for an actual prospect like Chance Adams, so a deal of: Lopez, Mateo, Adams and Wade would probably work.

[millertime98]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

SP Colin Rea + CP Kevin Quackenbush for LF Billy McKinney+SP Justus Sheffield+1 more prospect.

I'm at the 2017 trade deadline with the Padres. I'm out of it. The Yankees are in the Wild Card hunt and have three pitchers with an ERA in the high 4's or mid 5's. Rea is 81 ovr with a 2.92 era. Quackenbush is 77-B with 23 saves and 2.00 era. Both are in the final year of their contracts. Legit?
Note: This is what they offered in the "trade suggestions" I did. The third prospect was CF Clint Frazier but I thought that was too much. Maybe an A level RP but I'd like it to be realistic. Thanks for your feedback!

[BoSox59]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Not doing 30-team control - is it too late to do that?

Tried adjusting the ratings of the players involved but their "trade value" (the amount of blue filled in on the bar in the trade screen) doesn't change.

Tried signing all the big name free agents I could and then offering them to the White Sox but even a package of Greg Holland, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Batista wasn't enough

Any advice here? I'm running out of ideas to get Sale to the Red Sox short of simply restarting my franchise

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Guys, I need help on this one with this. If you're Washington, do you look at trading Harper, knowing what's he's looking for money wise (400M) and knowing you won't or can't pay that or anything near that? 2 years left on his deal sweetens it more with more team control. Would you do it? And me personally, think they should. I think he wants out but won't say it. Think he wants to go to New York honestly. Big market. Big money. Short porch in right helps his offensive game. What would it take to get him to the Yanks?

[millertime98]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I would trade him to NYY. He is young and talented but I do think he wants to be Mantle in NY. The thing I don't understand is why people assume the Nats can't afford him. I'm pretty sure I've read their owners are the richest in the game.
But, I feel his body will likely break down / he wants out. I'd say 2 front line pitchers and 2 front line position players. Justus Sheffield+ and Frazier+.
The only problem is I wonder if NYY would just wait until he is a FA. Is it worth it to them to wait an extra season for him?

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

But in game, he usually doesn't get to FA. Usually re-signs with Washington. That's why I was asking

[millertime98]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Right, I understand. I'd do the trade. It's realistic.

[redsoxfan31]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I may be off based but I think a package to get Bryce Harper with two years of team control left for the Yankees would cost in the range of Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Justus Sheffield, James Kaprielan, and maybe another throw in like Kyle Holder or Chad Green, lesser known but still decent prospects. This trade gives Washington a power hitting corner outfielder that is MLB ready in Judge, and it helps them replenish their depleted pitching prospect depth they lost in the Eaton trade. Again, I could be completely wrong and I'm sure Gamecocks will be able to correct my package or add to it, but I think it would hurt the Yankees a lot less if they waited for Harper to simply be a FA (maybe 30-team control can help with this)

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I'm actually two games into the 2018 season which makes this I believe his final year. I don't mind giving up Frazier, Torres, Kap or Sheffield

[millertime98]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I guess for me it would depend on if it was the deadline or not, records, etc. If it is a straight up off season deal I think the Justus Sheffield, Frazier, Judge, Green package would do it. They already have Turner at SS. That's why I said maybe they'd wait for FA in 2018, so they didn't have to give up every one of the prospects they got in trades. If they waited for FA, Judge might be good enough by then to move Harper to CF and deal Frazier. Plus, they could deal some of those other players in multiple deals to get other front line SP or other players.
Just my two cents, but, to answer you're original question, yes, I'd make the deal and some combo of those prospects would get it done.

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

OF, Clint Frazier
SS, Gleyber Torres
SP, Justice Sheffield
SP, James Kaprielian
CP, Jonathan Holder
OF, Aaron Judge

For Harper is what I came too

[sc050610]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Any advice here? I'm running out of ideas to get Sale to the Red Sox short of simply restarting my franchise

If you already started your franchise and didn't do 30 team control at the start then it's too late to do so.

I assume you are the Red Sox, did you try raising Moncada's stats to near his actual potential levels to see just him being an superstar already would help make the deal go through?