How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

[baseballsim]

In online head to head I try mixup my pitches but sometimes I sense I am probably mixing them up in predictable patterns. Against the CPU I do the same thing but is there a reason to? Can the AI attempt to guess what's coming next?

As you can tell I've never been a pitcher in organized ball. Is there any literature on this topic that anyone might suggest?

[KBLover]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

In online head to head I try mixup my pitches but sometimes I sense I am probably mixing them up in predictable patterns. Against the CPU I do the same thing but is there a reason to? Can the AI attempt to guess what's coming next?

I believe the CPU can try to "anticipate" what's coming next. I'm not sure if they use an equivalent of the Guess Pitch feature, but I do believe it will read your trend for that game after a few innings. This seems to apply to location and either specific pitch or general speed. I'm not sure which (or if it matters, but I think practically, the distinction is important because it would inform how to use a pitcher's repertoire...mixing up for speed or trying to confuse with pitch type, regardless of speed differential).

[Caulfield]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

Location is as important as , if not more than , the type pitch . Thats why Mariano Rivera was so effective . Exit light .

[KBLover]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

Location is as important as , if not more than , the type pitch . Thats why Mariano Rivera was so effective . Exit light .

In the real game, yes.

In MLBTS, if you throw just one pitch constantly, you might get "penalties" because the hitters are looking for the pitch.

Of course, with Rivera, it didn't really help because he was that good - but you know, video games seem not to like that kind of thing being possible.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

I finally listen to the voices in my head.

They're crazy.

In all seriousness though, mixing it up is good. Just remember the old adage though: Sometimes the same pitch in the same location IS mixing it up.

I'd say around half of my pitches are following the book (hard stuff early, soft stuff late), about a third are done because I know the hitter is expecting something else, and the rest is done just on gut feeling.

And yes, pitch location is paramount, and just as important to mix up as pitch selection.

[Caulfield]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

I dont think it needs be said again about not being predictable but with that in mind here are some of the back2back pitch sequences that I find helpful and employ the most while at the same time trying to remain an enigma .

1 - fastball inside followed by an outside fastball

2 - fastball outside then an outside change

3 - fastball inside then an outside slider/curve/breaking pitch

4 - change outside then an inside fastball

5 - curve low then a high fastball

6 - fastball outside then an outside slider

7 - fastball inside then a low curve

For me nothing is as devastating as a fastball followed by a curve .

My biggest weakness is the amount of high fastballs I throw with 2 strikes and less than 3 balls . Its generally successful but I have to work at not making that pattern a crutch . Or a pattern .

I try to throw roughly 60% fastballs - 20% to 25% breaking pitches - 10% changeups .

In my mind the most important pitch is in a 1-1 count , even more important than a 3-2 count

The rarest of rares for me in terms of back to back pitches is a splitter followed by another splitter .

[KBLover]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

Since I had some time, I looked back at the pitches I threw with some of the pitchers in my Marlins franchise since I have years of history there (it's a carryover started in MLB14 and is in year 10).

Boeve: 4SFB (99+), Slider (85-87), if I get that working and his slider is on, it could be a long day for the hitters. With him, I need to remember not to forget about the cutter (94-97). I usually throw it off the slider when I don't want to go back to 4SFB.

So FB->Slider->Slider (OOZ)->Cutter (either IZ or OOZ).

He does have a splitter (89-92), so I'll mix that in after 4SFB low for strikes.

So FB->Slider->low FB->SFF->high FB in/or CUT away

Pitch split:
FBs 60-70% (4SFB and CUT combined), SL: ~20%, SPL: ~20%
Or said another way, FBs 60-70%, SL/SPL: 50/50 between them.


Heredia: He has five pitches so lots of chances to mix up. Also has a 12-6 curve, so he has a true slower pitch. So, unlike Boeve where he's all varying degrees of fast, Heredia can throw something slow. With the curve, I sometimes go off fastball, but I also start PAs with the curve sometimes. I like to establish all his pitches for strikes and try to keep a 20% pitch split (all pitches used equally). Since he has two kinds of FBs (2SFB and 4SFB), that leads to 40% or so FB rate, low for a power type.

Some patterns:

4SFB (high), 2SFB (high away), 12-6 (away), 4SFB (in).

12-6 (away), 12-6 (in), 4SFB (high OOZ), 2SFB (in, either IZ/OOZ, depending)

Early in the game, most pitches are in-zone, later, most are out-of-zone, especially after 1 strike (get the hitter thinking I'm pounding the zone again, then hope he chases and that my pitcher throws tempting balls).

Pitch split: FBs (4- and 2-seam): 40%, 12-6: 20%, SL: 20%, CCH: 20%


Huff: Kind of a mix of Buehrle, Moyer, and Colon in approach. I'm very much in the zone with Huff (his low K/9 won't cause many chases anyway and his high BB/9 should let him locate in the zone well), and feature his sinker heavily while mixing his two kinds of curves off each other (start both at the same point, one breaks 12-6, the other is a sweeper). I'll throw the forkball as a change up off the sinker when I don't try a 12-6.

Some patterns:

SNK (low), 12-6 (in or away opposite of sinker), SNK (in, thigh-high), FRK (low OOZ).

12-6 (in or away), SCV (same start point as 12-6), 12-6 (opposite of first 12-6), SNK (opposite of last 12-6)

FRK, SNK (if first FRK fell out of zone, SNK for strike, otherwise SNK out of zone intended), 12-6 (same place as SNK), SCV (opposite of 12-6).

Pitch Split:
SNK: 55-65%, SCV/12-6/FRK: split the rest between them nearly evenly.

[KBLover]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

In my mind the most important pitch is in a 1-1 count , even more important than a 3-2 count

There's evidence of this being objectively true.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/debunking-mlb-first-pitch-strike-myth/

https://statspeakmvn.wordpress.com/2008/05/22/the-most-important-pitch-a-look-at-greg-maddux-and-1-1-counts/

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-baseball-1-1-count-20150825-story.html

[JBCizzle]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

Don't forget pitch mix/repertoire. Sometimes the threat of certain pitches, or a pitch mix with similar but different speeds/movements, can lend itself to a power arsenal.

As a LHP, I tend to pitch righties and lefties differently. I went with a 4-seam, 2-seam, changeup, slider, curveball mix. I love the slider/2-seamer combination as they are harder pitches that may start out the same but move in opposite directions.

LHB mix (no particular order):

4-seam fastball up and in or up and away
Slider down and away
2-seam fastball down and in
Curveball down and away

RHB Mix (no particular order):

4-seam fastball up and in or up and away
Changeup down and away
Slider down and away or down and in (thrown for a strike when away, ball when in)
Curveball down and away or down and in (thrown for a strike when away, ball when in)
2-seam fastball down and away

I've noticed that I hardly throw a changeup against lefties, or offspeed pitches in to righties (for strikes).

[TheWarmWind]

Re: How do you determine what pitch type to throw?

I thought I'd add this story in because it's a good example of how the definition of mixing it up can change from pitcher to pitcher and game to game. To give the story context, I should tell you that I throw a lot of offspeed, probably more than most on OS. It changes from one pitcher to the next, but I'd saw I throw about 55% fastballs, with about 5% variance.

However, one of the best games I ever threw was back in MLB 12. I had Henderson Alverez pitching for the Jays, and I no hit the Astros threw 8 throwing one changeup, one slider, and the rest 4SFB. I just had a feeling it would work after the first inning, and as it kept on working I stuck with it. That's a big part of it. You have to know what pitches are "on" for the night and which ones are "off". That depends both on how your pitcher is throwin them and how your opponents are seein them. Being able to read that is the key to mixing it up.

That was an exceptional game. I've never done anything like it before on since. It just goes to show you that you have to adapt to the situation and trust your instincts. I've selected a pitch many a time only to step off the mound because my gut says no. There have been times where that has harmed me, but overall I'm better for it.