Potential Floors and Ceilings

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  • TheKnack
    Contributor
    • Aug 2011
    • 758

    #1

    Potential Floors and Ceilings

    As I finish year 4 of my MLB: The Show 16 franchise, I've been thinking of different ways to improve variety in the draft and within the growth/progress system and I think I've come up with a system that would mirror reality.

    Instead of setting a "potential" number and grade for each prospect, I think setting a potential FLOOR and a potential CEILING would be a really interesting way to go.

    So many high school prospects that are drafted are touted as "could be a perennial all star" or "might never see the big leagues". This is especially prevalent in young toolsy players. Players that are fast and strong, but will need to grow into their bodies and figure it out between the ears.

    I'd like to see more 18 year old prospects that have an 80 ceiling and a 40 floor.

    HERE'S THE KEY.

    Make it incumbent on the user to keep these prospects at a minor league level where they will succeed. Success is the linchpin in whether a player progresses toward their ceiling, or falls toward their floor. Patience is key. Furthermore, make sure you have a strong Farm Director, and you are training these prospects in the areas that they most need help in.

    Thoughts?
  • Mauer4MVP
    MVP
    • Mar 2010
    • 2407

    #2
    Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

    What I've always wanted is what you suggested with one more rating: Chance of reaching ceiling.

    I can't think of an example for MLB, but Zach LaVine immediately comes to mind. Floor a 71, ceiling 90, potential to reach ceiling 20%. Then you have a ton of variety in franchises.

    Sent from my HTC Desire 626 using Operation Sports mobile app

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    • skrody
      Rookie
      • Oct 2007
      • 219

      #3
      Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

      this is very interesting.
      could explain how guys develop late, or with a position change for example. has a great couple years in minors and just develops

      Comment

      • TheKnack
        Contributor
        • Aug 2011
        • 758

        #4
        Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

        Originally posted by Mauer4MVP
        What I've always wanted is what you suggested with one more rating: Chance of reaching ceiling.

        I can't think of an example for MLB, but Zach LaVine immediately comes to mind. Floor a 71, ceiling 90, potential to reach ceiling 20%. Then you have a ton of variety in franchises.

        Sent from my HTC Desire 626 using Operation Sports mobile app
        You nailed it on the head. That's a great idea.

        Another nice tidbit would be little scouting report blurbs like
        -"Most advanced bat in college"
        -"Likely to move quickly through the system"
        -"Slow mover, project, high ceiling."

        That might make variety in the draft a whole lot more compelling.

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        • NDAlum
          ND
          • Jun 2010
          • 11453

          #5
          Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

          Sign me up

          The draft process needs to be revamped. It is sorely lacking.
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          • HypoLuxa13
            MVP
            • Feb 2007
            • 1156

            #6
            Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

            Originally posted by WSUCougars
            You nailed it on the head. That's a great idea.

            Another nice tidbit would be little scouting report blurbs like
            -"Most advanced bat in college"
            -"Likely to move quickly through the system"
            -"Slow mover, project, high ceiling."


            That might make variety in the draft a whole lot more compelling.
            Would love if they implemented something like this, kind of like NBA 2K scouting reports. As long as they actually had meat behind them in the algorithms and ratings behind the scenes. Or maybe just a general progression evaluation (not necessarily a 1-99 rating) along with the usual potential rating.

            Maybe an A to F scale, where:
            A: quick progression, near guarantee to hit ceiling potential, fast track to debuting very soon after being drafted. Think Kris Bryant.
            B: decent progression, good chance to hit ceiling potential, but some guys with B progression may not quite ever hit their ceiling.
            C: average progression and moderately predictable and an average chance of hitting their ceiling, also a chance they may not advance that much
            D: poor progression and predictability, high risk with a chance the player can develop someday. Good chance they won't work out.
            F: Roster filler. Plug these guys into the low minors cause chances are they are never going to develop much, even if they have high potential. Only until they prove otherwise do you consider them part of your future plans, but an F progression rating means this player is a one in a thousand shot of becoming something. (ahem, Mike Piazza)

            And maybe set it up so the older a player is, the higher their progression rating is because of more experience, the closer they probably are to their ceiling, and more complete scouting.

            As some examples, if you had 3 players, say player 1 is a 20 year old college player and player 2 is an 18 year old high school player, and player 3 is a 22 year old college player:

            1: 70 overall, 82 potential, progression rating of A - This guy in most situations will reach low-mid 80's at his peak and it won't take him as that long to get there. He'll progress quickly and be up in the majors in a year or so. He works his tail off.
            2: 60 overall, 95 potential, progression rating of D - This guy could pay off as a perennial All Star if you give him several to develop, or there is a fair chance he may never make it out of the minor leagues and bust out as a wasted draft choice. Tons of raw talent, but maybe he thinks he can do it all with talent and doesn't have a high work ethic. Maybe if he has an attitude adjustment at some point he will start to put in the work to reach his potential.
            3: 70 overall, 75 potential, progression rating of C - This guy is older and his skills are developed about as far as they are going to go. Most likely he'll become a platoon or role player in MLB, and he may not make it to the Show until he has hung out in AAA because he'll so very slowly improve. This is the kind of the guy who is a bubble player in spring training much of his career and plays for a different team every year or two.

            And of course all kinds of combinations of starting rating, progression and potential. With so many outcomes, it would add tons more variety. But I imagine the more variables you add to the drafting/scouting/progression equation, the harder it would be to balance. Especially if the combinations were being generated mostly randomly on draft classes.
            Last edited by HypoLuxa13; 02-17-2017, 08:54 AM.

            Comment

            • Bosox1389
              Rookie
              • Mar 2016
              • 27

              #7
              Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

              This is the best thread I have read in a while, the draft and player progression of prospects needs some serious re-tooling. The ideas you guys have are awesome, it would bring a lot more variance to the draft and make it more realistic as well.


              Say a team that expects to be in the playoffs the next couple years may lean towards the role player college type like player 3 above and a rebuilding team may lean more towards high school player taking a shot at getting a perennial all star. Obviously the Kris Bryant types would be drafted in the top of the draft.


              I love these ideas and what it would bring to Franchise Mode

              Comment

              • TheKnack
                Contributor
                • Aug 2011
                • 758

                #8
                Re: Potential Floors and Ceilings

                This would be very valuable for something like power relievers too. As an example if a player already throws 99 in college and can spot a pitch, he may have a reasonable potential, but his skillset is going to translate to MLB in possibly less than a full year of minor league ball.

                Giving the user more control over their patience and whether or not their investments pay off.

                Maybe left unsaid thus far, it may help casual players stick with franchise longer as they know they have a gifted prospect coming if they're patient. The emotional attachment to franchise would only grow.

                Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

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