MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

So I came up with this using the formula that South Carolina display picture gave out using value of a contract and brantley is worth right around 43 million with Gardner being worth roughly 36 plus Chance which yes is our 8th prospect but in a deep farm system. in normal farm systems chance is not the #8 guy. In the Red Sox he would be the #4 guy

Your math is off. Gardner is already 33 so his expected WAR will be on the decline.

2017: 2 WAR
2018: 1.5 WAR
2019: 1 WAR \
Total 4.5 WAR x 9 - $35.5 (Contract) = $5 million in surplus

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Probably not. Brantley's health is a real question, but his upside is so much higher than Gardner's. Plus Gardner has a good bit more money left on his contract than Brantley does. And Adams wouldn't really move the needle.

The thing is, if you're trading for Brantley its with the expectation that he will be healthy and great again. And if that's the common belief, then the Indians would expect a return in trade for him to reflect that. Brantley is a strange piece to try to trade

I figured with Adams being top 5 prospect in most of the teams farm systems that that could get me enough value. Also Gardner only has $3 mill more on his contract both having two years remaining. Brantley is right around a 4 WAR and Gardner is a 3 WAR player with being and IRON MAN in his career and not missing games. I figured Brantley has a value at 43 mill and Gardner is floating right around 35 mill. Just trying to use the formula to get as close as I can get

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Your math is off. Gardner is already 33 so his expected WAR will be on the decline.

2017: 2 WAR
2018: 1.5 WAR
2019: 1 WAR \
Total 4.5 WAR x 9 - $35.5 (Contract) = $5 million in surplus

Gardners WAR was 3.3 last year and only has 2 years left with a contract value of 23 mill.
2017. 2.8
2018. 2.3

Total 5.1 x 9 - 23 =23. I was still off

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I figured with Adams being top 5 prospect in most of the teams farm systems that that could get me enough value. Also Gardner only has $3 mill more on his contract both having two years remaining. Brantley is right around a 4 WAR and Gardner is a 3 WAR player with being and IRON MAN in his career and not missing games. I figured Brantley has a value at 43 mill and Gardner is floating right around 35 mill. Just trying to use the formula to get as close as I can get

A 45FV guy isn't going to be another team's top-5 guy unless their farm is trash. Even going off MLB Pipeline which gives him a 50 isn't really going to make that much of a difference. Gardner hasn't been a 3 WAR guy since 2014. There's no reason to think he turns that around at 33 years old.

Use fWAR on Fangraphs not Baseball Reference WAR.

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

A 45FV guy isn't going to be another team's top-5 guy unless their farm is trash. Even going off MLB Pipeline which gives him a 50 isn't really going to make that much of a difference. Gardner hasn't been a 3 WAR guy since 2014. There's no reason to think he turns that around at 33 years old.

Use fWAR on Fangraphs not Baseball Reference WAR.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ardnbr01.shtml

This says he was 3.3 WAR in 2015 and 2016

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Also Interested in a three team trade that I think might work

Yankees get Carrasco

Indians get McCullers, Johnathan Holder, Albert Abreu

Astros get Tanaka and Estevan Florial

Also this deal isn't good. McCullers has more value because of his team control than Tanaka has.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ardnbr01.shtml

This says he was 3.3 WAR in 2015 and 2016

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...27&position=OF

2.6 and 2.4

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...27&position=OF

2.6 and 2.4

How is it so much different? Ive been using baseball reference all day

[BigOscar]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

A 45FV guy isn't going to be another team's top-5 guy unless their farm is trash. Even going off MLB Pipeline which gives him a 50 isn't really going to make that much of a difference. Gardner hasn't been a 3 WAR guy since 2014. There's no reason to think he turns that around at 33 years old.

Use fWAR on Fangraphs not Baseball Reference WAR.

Out of interest, how do you do the maths for a player who has arbitration years left on their contract? Say Jake Odorizzi, who is being paid $4m this year and has 2 more years of arbitration, how do you decide how much money to take off his WAR value?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

How is it so much different? Ive been using baseball reference all day

Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating as their defensive benchmark whereas Baseball Reference used Defensive Runs Saved.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-f...hs-uzr-primer/ Explanation of UZR

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/ Explanation of DRS

I just usually use Fangraphs, but that isn't to say I'm necessarily right or wrong

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Fangraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating as their defensive benchmark whereas Baseball Reference used Defensive Runs Saved.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-f...hs-uzr-primer/ Explanation of UZR

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/drs/ Explanation of DRS

I just usually use Fangraphs, but that isn't to say I'm necessarily right or wrong

Well that makes sense why our WAR numbers were different but with Gardner only having two years left on his contract it does make him a little better. not Overly but at the same time Brantley also only having two years left has had injury problems. So I figured I would be closer than what apparently I was.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Out of interest, how do you do the maths for a player who has arbitration years left on their contract? Say Jake Odorizzi, who is being paid $4m this year and has 2 more years of arbitration, how do you decide how much money to take off his WAR value?

Personally, I look at what they got their current year in Arbitration, then I try to find players from the past that were similar and look at the raises they got in Arbitration. So the highest I've ever seen a guy get in Arbitration was roughly $20 million by David Price who was a Super 2 guy in his 4th go round of Arbitration. Usually players get a decent raise if they are regulars.

Arrieta for example, his first go round of Arb he got $3.6 million. Then he broke out, and his second year he got $10.7 and this year, his third, he got $15.6.

So players still in Arbitration require a little bit more guess work.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Well that makes sense why our WAR numbers were different but with Gardner only having two years left on his contract it does make him a little better. not Overly but at the same time Brantley also only having two years left has had injury problems. So I figured I would be closer than what apparently I was.

Also, I almost always include option years into players totals. If you are going to assume they have value in a trade, they should have enough to have their option picked up. Thats why I have 3 seasons listed for Gardner

[BigOscar]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Personally, I look at what they got their current year in Arbitration, then I try to find players from the past that were similar and look at the raises they got in Arbitration. So the highest I've ever seen a guy get in Arbitration was roughly $20 million by David Price who was a Super 2 guy in his 4th go round of Arbitration. Usually players get a decent raise if they are regulars.

Arrieta for example, his first go round of Arb he got $3.6 million. Then he broke out, and his second year he got $10.7 and this year, his third, he got $15.6.

So players still in Arbitration require a little bit more guess work.

Cheers, that's about what I figured but you seem pretty up on this stuff so I thought I'd see if there was some special formula.

[babybombers]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Yankees get Carassco
Astros get Tanaka, Florial, Pineda, Green and Rob Kaminsky
Indians get McCullers, Holder and Abreu

This Bolsters Astros Staff and get a few prospects to make a push since their a couple pieces away and would have a pitching staff of Tanaka, Keuchel, Pineda, Morton and Musgrove while Green can help right away for SP depth and good bullpen peice. I realized the astros werent getting enough in the previous deal so this should give them a good WS push such as the cubs did. Then the Indians can do what they do best and that is to get SP with alot of team control and another piece to their bullpen and with this trade you could see a Astros-Indians ALCS with HUGE SP matchups