Steal vs speed

[COMMISSIONERHBK9]

Guys question if my player has speed in the high 70s or 80s but his steal is below a 50 should I try to steal?

[stealyerface]

Re: Steal vs speed

I would like to hash this out a bit further...

Speed rating is pretty self explanatory, but with the "steal" rating, does that determine, or have any bearing on:

Jump. Sometimes my guy will take off like a shot when I release the L-trigger for the manual steal, and sometimes he stays put, and I get thrown out by five feet. Any better jump for a higher steal rating?

Pickoffs. Does the steal rating being higher give the runner a better chance of getting back to the base on the arbitrary decision of being picked off. Back in the old days, specifically 2004-2005 leading off with a certain game presented a mini-game, whereby you could actually press the "back" trigger to return to the base, and if you were fast enough, you could get an extra lead-off step, and return to the base, via your quick reactions to the pitcher's move. Nowadays, if you click the lead off button, trying to get that little extra lead off, your chance of being picked off is certainly greater, but having no real input to get your runner back, are we to assume that a higher-rated stealer is more apt to get back after that extra step? Even with a two step extra lead? What is the threshold for the biggest and best lead possible, and not getting picked off? Steal rating of 90 or better? 80 or better? Does a higher Steal rating enable the runner to counteract a pitcher with a high pickoff rating? Dice roll? Algorithm? Bueller??

Manual stealing. I know that there are some folks new to the game that may not know you can steal by pressing the L trigger and releasing it, thereby telling your runner to steal. but you can also squeeze and hold the L trigger, and release it at the most opportune point, thereby "manually" stealing a base. This has allowed me to time a pitcher, based on his looks to first, and how long he holds the set, and steal bases with a lower-rated baserunner, by manually taking off at the perfect time (typically just before he starts his move home) and you can swipe a bag or two off the pitcher. However, even with a 80+ rated base stealer, the release-point steal method seems to result in a non-input-based jump, and guys get hosed pretty easily. I would to better understand the steal rating and how it actually affects the outcome of both the manual steal, and the press and release trigger method.

~syf

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Steal vs speed

To answer both questions, Steal rating effects the ability to get a good jump, but it battles a rating that the pitcher has in terms of both speed and deceptiveness for their pickoff. Unfortunately this rating is hidden to the player (I suspect it is highly tied to pitching animation).

So Steal battles pickoff like how contact battles H/9 and vision battles K/9. So a guy with high steal can get consistently good jumps vs pitchers with low pickoff ability, but against a pickoff master may still seem like they are struggling.

This battle of attributes will also effect the player's ability to get back to base on a pickoff attempt.

So to answer the OPs question, it depends on the pitcher. Since you have no real way of knowing how good the pitcher is (or how late in their windup they can transition to a deceptive pickoff) you kind of have to go with your gut feeling. However, if you're 90+ guys are jumping off very late, odds are the pitcher either had a high pickoff rating or a very late pickoff transition (likely both) and you shouldn't even think about stealing with your 50- guys.

However, I've also faced pitchers that were so bad that even my 20s+ runners were getting good jumps.

A guy with speeds in the high 70s to 80s and steal in 40s shouldn't be attempting to steal every game, but if they are wary and pick their spots, 20+ stolen bases in a year is a tough but attainable goal. With guys like that I'm usually getting somewhere in the teens with between a .700 and .900 success rate.

[KBLover]

Re: Steal vs speed

Unfortunately this rating is hidden to the player (I suspect it is highly tied to pitching animation).

It is. As such it's not "hidden" but more "you have to trust your eyes" type of situation.

Even when using the slide step, different guys have different speeds on it. Their deliveries will be faster which helps decrease how far along the runners get and/or their effective jump (probably how the game emulates that "how far runners get" part).

The pickoffs are in the same realm, though there's the "pickoff artist" perk to watch out for - telltale sign that guy is known for his deception/quickness on his pickoffs.

As to the original question of what to do with these high speed, mediocre steal ability, players...for me, I let them run. I'm very aggressive in base stealing, especially after the third or fourth pitch in a plate appearance and at the bottom half of the order. I've seen what delivery he wants to use, what it looks like, and then the only thing I need to worry about is getting picked off, which is on the runner (I preload and don't manually go).

Top half of the order, I'm a bit more restrained until 1 out. Then I go to avoid someone like Gallo hitting a 96 MPH two-hopper to short for the easiest DP ever.

[Caulfield]

Re: Steal vs speed

Speed kills.
Mets SS Amed Rosario has a stealing rating of 14, but his 94 speed makes it easy to steal with him. But you wont really find anybody with say, 70 stealing and 40 speed. If you dont possess speed, your steal ability will be pretty much non-existant.
Cody Bellinger has good speed (73) but only 32 steal ability.
Alex Bregman 73 speed, 32 steal.
George Springer 72 speed, 23 steal.
Javier Baez 71 speed, 30 steal.
Andrew McCutchen 74 speed, 19 steal.
Cesar Hernandez 78 speed, 41 steal.
Ender Inciarte 70 speed, 42 steal.
JT Realmuto 76 speed, 24 steal.
Brett Gardner 78 speed, 41 steal.
Didi Gregorius 71 speed, 12 steal.
Adam Eaton 81 speed, 39 steal.
there are a ton of other guys just like these but you get the point.
It would be interesting to have guys with low speed and good baserunning skills though.

[bcruise]

Re: Steal vs speed

Just a thought - the new custom practice would probably be really good for figuring out what sort of consistency you can expect with a particular steal/speed combination. It closes off a lot of variables that could affect the success rate. Just set a count, set it to repeat and then go nuts. I bet there would be a lot more variance in the results than people think, except with the really high speed/steal guys who are going to be successful a high percentage of the time.

For the getting the correct runner in practice mode, I think it's dependent on their place in the batting order. Like, if you select the 5th batter in the lineup and a runner on first, the 4th batter will be the one running. I'm not 100% sure if that's how it works though, or if the out count matters - would need to look into it a bit more.

Also you don't get a baserunner hud display in practice mode, so you'd just have to know the ratings of whoever is running.

[KBLover]

Re: Steal vs speed

It would be interesting to have guys with low speed and good baserunning skills though.

I have one in my Marlins franchise but that's a carryover from MLB14 so maybe the game doesn't make those kinds of players anymore.

He has 50's SPD and 80's Stealing. I'll have to check what his SB rate is.

[OneTonneBaby]

Re: Steal vs speed

Some interesting comments and useful ones.

I've found stealing difficult and find that even with guys that are 85 speed and 75 steal, if i pre-load, they get thrown out 85% of the time. I've started doing it manually, which is more fun but have also seen their jumps look like i've pre-loaded it and then getting thrown out.

If it's true that each pitcher has a pickoff ability it's pretty disappointing that it's hidden. Would be a great addition as some pitchers are great at holding runners and some aren't but without seeing this it makes stealing harder and less fun.

[bryan_nelson88]

Re: Steal vs speed

I have been picked off on rookie mode a bunch this year with guys that have 99 stealing. It's stupid.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Steal vs speed

I have been picked off on rookie mode a bunch this year with guys that have 99 stealing. It's stupid.

Are you taking a step? Honestly, the benefits of the step are questionable, I've found that taking a step has a negative impact on the batters ability to get a good jump, probably because they are worried about getting picked off.

You don't need the step to steal second, and the CPU will constantly throw over just hoping to proc a successful pickoff if you do take the step.

If you still want to take the step, I'd recommend turning down CPU pickoff attempts. I have mine at 2, but that's partly because I want the CPU to match my pickoff attempt frequency (which is quite high when someone takes a step). You might want to go even lower.

However, in the past, I've had plenty of success stealing bases without ever taking a step.