Who should I start?

[TheWarmWind]

I've always been a results oriented guy. I will never start a player who is performing worse than another, no matter what the attributes say.

However, when it comes to giving guys a chance, I'm unsure. Here I am at the end of the season. I've secured the best record in MLB this year. I've got two games left. I have no reason to not start my prospects for these two games.

Here is my issue: I've only got two starts but I have three starting pitchers who I want to get a start in for.

One of them has progressed massively attributes wise in AAA, and is now sitting at 89(!) overall. Thing is, he had an incredibly mediocre year in AAA, and while he is good in a lot of areas, he's exceptional at nothing. He's overreliant on his fastballs as his supporting pitches just quite aren't there yet.

Meanwhile another one is much lower rates overall, but has exceptional control on his fastballs and fantastic break on his breaking balls. Low velocity, but good pitch speed differential, and he was the best AAA pitcher this year.

The third is a knuckleballer. He was probably 2nd or 3rd best in AAA.

Which two do you think should get the start?

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[decga]

Re: Who should I start?

The first & second pitcher. The one with the potential and the stuff would be my no.5 starter, especially if you have a high powered offense. Which could mask some mistakes.

[countryboy]

Re: Who should I start?

Agreed with decga.

The first pitcher has the ability and makeup given his rating to be a rotational piece as it stands now. I would let him pitch against big league competition and see how he does.

The second pitcher that was the best in AAA, I would give him a start just to measure where he is in terms of being on the cusp of big league ready or is he better served spending next year in the minors, unless injuries dictate he be called up.

I would use the knuckleballer as a long reliever in either of those starts in case the two above aren't quite ready for big league hitters.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

I should point out that I've been doing trips down to AAA to scout some of these guys. My opinion on the first pitcher isn't just from numbers or a few appearances. I truly believe he isn't ready yet.

I think I'm asking a more general question. At what point does raw attributes warrant getting a chance over on field performance? Because based on both stats AND my hands on experience, the latter two pitchers are more deserving.

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[countryboy]

Re: Who should I start?

I've always given more credit to on field performance over that of ratings, as I don't really focus much on overalls and potential, but I also understand that a young guy being rated highly (89 in this case), he should get a chance to pitch against big league caliber hitters to see how he measures up. And while one game certainly shouldn't be used as a measuring stick because pitchers have off nights, I would make it a point to get him some innings.

Honestly if I were in your shoes, I would pick one of the three to have a normal start, meaning I would put them out there and let the game dictate how long he lasts.

The other game I would take the other two pitchers and split the start, much like spring training. Maybe give them each 3/4 innings, or a set number of pitches and then take it from there.

[coach422001]

Re: Who should I start?

What CB said just now is what I'd go with. Start the first two but bring the knuckleballer in mid-game (possibly in both games?). Heck Tim Wakefield could pitch forever in a game unless Aaron Boone was up Two guys get starts and the Kb-er gets innings.

[Caulfield]

Re: Who should I start?

not a big fan of pitchers who have to rely on a knuckle ball (in the Show). so he doesn't start for me. IRL I do like knucklers though.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

Well I played game 1 playing pitcher #2 (low velocity, good control, good movement guy). 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 hits, no BB. Not bad considering he was facing what I consider the third best lineup in the majors, and they played all their starters.

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[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

not a big fan of pitchers who have to rely on a knuckle ball (in the Show). so he doesn't start for me. IRL I do like knucklers though.

I've played scouting trips with him in AAA (where I only play his part of the game) and I'm very happy with him so far. He's got a nice cutter and a serviceable slider to go with the knuckler.

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[Instant C1a55ic]

Re: Who should I start?

I developed a unique system this year to give my high end prospects a chance to earn some starts, and get some innings in. I carry 7 starters at any given point, 5 in my rotation, and 2 prospects in the bullpen as mid-long relief.

For me it gives me a chance to evaluate my prospects, and swap them out with struggling starters. It's not for everyone, but in games past I ended up just trading away guys that didnt progress enough to crack the rotation.



Its helped to the point where I could penny pinch and not have to spend millions on pitchers. Proud to say it molded Peter Lambert and Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rockies.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

I developed a unique system this year to give my high end prospects a chance to earn some starts, and get some innings in. I carry 7 starters at any given point, 5 in my rotation, and 2 prospects in the bullpen as mid-long relief.

For me it gives me a chance to evaluate my prospects, and swap them out with struggling starters. It's not for everyone, but in games past I ended up just trading away guys that didnt progress enough to crack the rotation.



Its helped to the point where I could penny pinch and not have to spend millions on pitchers. Proud to say it molded Peter Lambert and Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rockies.

I get that, but I also have "starter or bust" prospects. That system worked out well for my 2014 1rst round pick, who just won the cy young and is a lock as the ace next season. I refused to let him pitch relief, instead sending him down when he didn't crack the team at 88 OVR. When he came back up in September, every complaint I had about him had been solved. He started his rookie season at 91, and after a rocky first month got it together. Now, in his sophomore season, he won the cy young and is rated 99 while being absolute money.

I think my current 89 rates guy is one of those.

Finished the final game by the way. Very bad start for that guy (9 runs allowed, 6 earned, 4.2 IP). Like I said, to overreliant on his fastballs. His changeup is ok but he REALLY needs to work on his slider if he wants to survive the majors. Very early break on it, very easy to spot. Probably also needs to bring his H/9 up.

His 4SFB is good enough for him to challenge for a bottom of the rotation spot, but I only have one spot in the rotation opening up and the competition is heavy for that spot. The high movement guy is definitely in the lead to claim the spot. We will see when spring training comes around.

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[Instant C1a55ic]

Re: Who should I start?

I get that, but I also have "starter or bust" prospects. That system worked out well for my 2014 1rst round pick, who just won the cy young and is a lock as the ace next season. I refused to let him pitch relief, instead sending him down when he didn't crack the team at 88 OVR. When he came back up in September, every complaint I had about him had been solved. He started his rookie season at 91, and after a rocky first month got it together. Now, in his sophomore season, he won the cy young and is rated 99 while being absolute money.

I think my current 89 rates guy is one of those.

Finished the final game by the way. Very bad start for that guy (9 runs allowed, 6 earned, 4.2 IP). Like I said, to overreliant on his fastballs. His changeup is ok but he REALLY needs to work on his slider if he wants to survive the majors. Very early break on it, very easy to spot. Probably also needs to bring his H/9 up.

His 4SFB is good enough for him to challenge for a bottom of the rotation spot, but I only have one spot in the rotation opening up and the competition is heavy for that spot. The high movement guy is definitely in the lead to claim the spot. We will see when spring training comes around.

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Do tell how you got him to a 88ovr in the minors, I have guys stall out at 74-76ovr and just cant get over that hump.

With that said, I try and call up when they hit 75ovr and put them in the pen. That's when they more often or not hit their stride, or fall flat. For example, I moved up Lambert when he hit 77, and none too soon as I had just let Kyle Freeland walk in free agency. By mid season Pete was a 81, 4-1 in relief with about 40 innings pitched. I did my due diligence to finish the season and at one point I moved him in the rotation due to injury. At seasons end he was 10-5 with a sub 3era.

I dunno if I will stick with my experiment, I have had a few prospects get shell shocked, and I ended up trading them after 2-3 opportunities to latch on. As I stated in the start of my ramble, I just cant get pitchers to progress in the minors.

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[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

Do tell how you got him to a 88ovr in the minors, I have guys stall out at 74-76ovr and just cant get over that hump.

I've had guys reach the 90's in the minors. Prospect development can be all over the place. Guys can stall at any point. Sometimes there is nothing you can do to prevent it. But sometimes, dropping them down to an easier league will help promote growth.

Think of it this way: each level presents a risk to reward ratio. MLB is the highest risk, but you will also see the largest gains there. Meanwhile A is pretty much guaranteed growth, but only at a minimal rate.

Performance is a large factor in triggering the risk factor. My current SS is Luis Sardinias. Despite having A potential and ok attributes, he struggled at every level. So instead of risking triggering a stall (or regression) I dumped him in A for 2 years. He went straight from A to MLB. He's now the undisputed best SS in the entire MLB, and I'm convinced the only reason why is because I was so conservative with his development. I think we would have stalled or regressed, and then lost potential if I had played him in AAA where his attributes said he should have been.

Not saying that's going to work every time though. Even with my careful management, I still have prospects stall out or regress.

Edit: changed AA to A, which is what I originally meant.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Who should I start?

For those who are curious how this all panned out, the second pitcher (low velocity, good control and movement) won the 5th spot in my rotation out of spring training.

He just pitched a complete game shutout in his third major league start. I'm pretty happy with my rotation, but as for the other two...

The knuckleballer is 2nd on the callup list in case of injury. He did well in spring and is, IMO, MLB ready.

The 89 rated guy is 3rd on the callup list, but I still think he has the same issues. Overreliant on his fastballs, too early break on his slider. I may end up trading him in the off season if his supporting pitches don't improve. I'm pretty rich in pitching prospects, and there will be quite a few ready to be added to the 40 man either this or next year. I'm not too worried about getting burned over this decision, especially if I can get a younger top prospect SP in return.

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