Progression is driven by multiple things. Stats are among those. Players grow faster in AA than AAA because they gave weaker competition. I have always used my AAA for my career minor leaguers and sometimes for overflow if I am overloaded at a position.
Players on average increase by 3-5 overall per year. It can be more and it can be less based on multiple factors like I said above. Sometimes they just randomly grow slow and are "busts."
I also do extensive edits to draft classes. That is another factor here and something I seem essential to long term franchise growth so my experiences do differ at times.

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