At one time progression/regression was more linear but some people complained that it was too predictable.
There are many problems with it. One is vs performance impacts outcomes but lhp is too small a sample size for the major changes.
Another problem even after the new player draft is predicted fully scouting attributes do not reflect the progression system in the game. I doubt the players who built the new player draft studied actual progression in franchise mode. For example pitchers stamina rarely increases but on the draft card it shows starting pitcher stamina increasing significantly. My most recent draft contained a total of 1 starting pitcher in the entire 30 team draft who might be a viable 6 inning pitcher by the time his bb/9 h/9 k/9 progress enough for him to be able to get MLB hitters out. The rest had either stamina too low or attributes too low or both.
This is in MLBTS 23. I chose not to purchase 24.

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