Ratings update for this week are a joke

[dta151]

The people doing the rating have to be either brain dead ,do not follow baseball, or just do not care about being realistic. The fact that Gerrit Cole has been a 90 for over a month and not got a raise of 1 point is utterly astonishing. He would most likely be the Cy Young winner for the NL if the season was over now,leads the NL in ERA and Wins 10-2 1.71 ERA 1.08 Whip and has allowed only 1 earned run since May 27th and has won his last 5 starts. In his last 5 starts (5-0) he has allowed a total of 3 earned runs and has only issued 6 walks while having 40K's in 35 1/3 innings pitched. How does this not warrant being raised 1 point overall from a 90 to a 91 at minimum?

[jayb_270]

Re: Ratings update for this week are a joke

They delay the rating increases so much that it makes it seam that they don't pay attention to baseball. I feel you

[BentleyA]

Re: Ratings update for this week are a joke

I will copy and paste what I responded to you with in the other thread since the more I look at it, the more I feel like Cole at just 90 overall is totally okay, especially since the advanced statistics that should be used to evaluate pitchers point to him being around the 8th best pitcher in baseball right now (3rd in NL). Using wins and ERA as statistics by themselves is dangerous and should pretty much never be done.... here is what I wrote in response to your post in the other thread...


While I am not going to sit here and debate for or against Cole getting a rating bump, I do want to point out that you need to be careful using stats such as wins and ERA (again, I am not sure what SCEA uses). Especially wins. I would argue that pitcher wins is the most overrated and awful stat to use in sports.

Anyway, I am not trying to attack you or necessarily debunk anything you are saying, but I think this is an excellent example to use to point out why a stat like ERA should NEVER be used by itself to evaluate or rate any pitcher.

So, Cole has an ERA of 1.71 on the season through 13 starts (84 IP). When I see that type of ERA, I want to either make it a stronger case, or explain why it might be so low. Taking a look, his xFIP is 2.68 with a SIERA of 2.70. Those two numbers are actually excellent, but since it is still early in the season, they are tied for 8th among starting pitchers. Additionally, the ERA-xFIP is -.65, which is the 21st highest (or lowest) among starting pitchers (using 21st worst would not quite be the right way to say it, but you can think of it that way for the sake of understanding what I am about to explain). This is signaling that there are inconsistencies in his statistics and that there is something going on (either getting lucky, pitching in pitcher friendly parks, playing poor quality opponents, or all three). Now keep in mind that Cole is a power pitcher and a strikeout pitcher which means his SIERA and xFIP are going to also be more favorable.
Anyway, when you look further into the reason for the ERA-xFIP or ERA-SIERA, you notice a couple of things. First of all, his HR/FB% is one of the lowest in MLB at 7.1%. The average is between 9-10% and this is not a stat that stays in favor of pitchers over the course of any amount of time. This is a regression to the mean statistic meaning that either he is playing in pitcher friendly parks, is getting lucky, or is facing poor opponents. If you want to look quickly at the other side of the spectrum, Felix has a FB/HR% currently of 21.3%, which is why his xFIP is quite a bit lower than his ERA. It is factoring in that he won't give up 21.3% FB/HR all season just like Cole will most likely not stay with the 7.1% (last year it was 9.4% and the season before 8.1%).

Yes, that is a fairly minor difference, but it does make a difference. Next then you have to look into the quality of opponent and parks that he has been pitching in.
You mentioned his 5 most recent starts. They were Phili, @Atlanta, @SFG, Miami, NYM. Now, to keep this brief and simple I am going to use wRC+ as a statistic for his opponents hitting. It is a well rounded stat that includes league averages and park factors. This article explains it in more detail (wRC+ Explained).

Okay so his recent opponents are currently 30th (Phili), 27th (Marlins), 20th (Braves), 17th (Mets), and 4th (Giants). Nice work for him against the Giants even though it was in a pitcher friendly park (in fact, AT&T Park has the lowest runs per game this year in MLB). Now looking over his season, he also has another start against Phili, one against Milwaukee (29th in hitting), Arizona (19th), Cinci (16th) twice, Chicago (18th) twice, and Detroit (3rd) once.
So that means out of his 13 starts this year, only 2 of them have been against teams that are better than 16th in hitting! So, that definitely helps explains his very low (or high, however you want to put it) ERA-xFIP or ERA-SIERA stat and is also a very very good reason and example of why stats like ERA by themselves should absolutely never be used to rate or evaluate a pitcher.

Again, I am not trying to attack you or even really debate whether or not he should get a rating boost (I could see a slight one). I just wanted to use your example as to why standard statistics such as ERA are not meant to be used by themselves.

EDIT: I will add links to brief explanations of some of the advanced stats that I mentioned incase anyone is confused:
xFIP
SIERA
wRC+
HR/FB% (This one does a good job of explaining how it is a regression to the mean stat)
This Article goes into further detail about why ERA is a bad stat to use by itself

[Garrett59]

Re: Ratings update for this week are a joke

You do realize that players can outperform they're FIP consistently just look at Jered Weaver. As far as comparing the two stats I'd say ERA holds more bearing and is the more important Stat. It's what he allows over nine simple. I understand the concept of FIP bit I don't necessarily think it's fair to say he's the 8th best pitcher because of it. He is the best pitcher in the NL hands down. Not the nonsensical 8th best in baseball due to some sabermatics.

[MLB Bob]

Re: Ratings update for this week are a joke

You do realize that players can outperform they're FIP consistently just look at Jered Weaver. As far as comparing the two stats I'd say ERA holds more bearing and is the more important Stat. It's what he allows over nine simple. I understand the concept of FIP bit I don't necessarily think it's fair to say he's the 8th best pitcher because of it. He is the best pitcher in the NL hands down. Not the nonsensical 8th best in baseball due to some sabermatics.

you do realize that ERA is dependent on the team that plays behind you and pitchers can out preform or under preform their defensive's all the time. i understand the concept of ERA but it has its flaws in telling us a lot of useful information.

"ERA is rarely a statistic you should use on its own because it is highly dependent on defense, luck, and sequencing, and therefore tells you very little useful information about a pitcher."

[jake214]

Re: Ratings update for this week are a joke

The rating should be based off the largest sample which is their body of work. Cole is off to a great start but to me a 90 is generous based off his last two years and quick start. His numbers so far are in line with AJ Burnett I wouldn't make AJ a diamond anytime soon. I'm glad the numbers are not based on what they just did but what they have done over time and what can be expected. Keep up the great work Sony.