UZR and Fielding Metrics

[TN - BRAVES FAN]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

Awesome...Now Brooks Conrad will play like defense like Brooks Conrad...

[SoxFan01605]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

What if every defensive rating in the game was torn out the game and re-written from scratch?

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[bhurst99]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

What if every defensive rating in the game was torn out the game and re-written from scratch?

Sounds good but the most important thing is that there is a wide difference between the best and the worst in any given rating. If the worst number for a particular rating is 65 and the best is a 99 that's not much of a spread (I'm looking at you Madden). If the spread is something from like 20 to 99, then the player is much more likely to notice the difference in fielding attributes.

I think one of the articles that was already written indicated that random errors by the user were going to be eliminated and that all errors would be based on the user's input. I hope that's not true because there should still be instances where the user player drops a fly ball or boots a grounder based on the player's ratings.

[Russell_SCEA]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

Sounds good but the most important thing is that there is a wide difference between the best and the worst in any given rating. If the worst number for a particular rating is 65 and the best is a 99 that's not much of a spread (I'm looking at you Madden). If the spread is something from like 20 to 99, then the player is much more likely to notice the difference in fielding attributes.

I think one of the articles that was already written indicated that random errors by the user were going to be eliminated and that all errors would be based on the user's input. I hope that's not true because there should still be instances where the user player drops a fly ball or boots a grounder based on the player's ratings.

The first part isn't correct its really up to the programmer to create the baselines for change depending upon the numbers. However this is something I can't accurately discuss so I won't.

The random errors comment wasn't explained correctly. We look at your input + the player's rating + the situation = the outcome. All errors are for the most part user created now however if the player you are using is elite he can take your input which would have resulted in an error and pulled you back into an offline throw. This works vice versa you can have a great throw, but the player your using could have fielding ratings bad enough to make this throw an error.

[green94]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

You had me at "What if"...

[brewers828]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I like the way this is being explained. I also hope this applies to catchers. There were a lot of times in '10 where the catcher could scoop a ball in the dirt and throw out a runner at second all in one motion. Will these new ratings apply to those situations?

[ChaseB]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

Not to go all nerdy, but while I like UZR, it's not quite the eye opener that some other modern stats have become because it takes over a year's worth of data to be close to accurate, and it still fluctuates a ton year to year. I am in no way trying to say that defensive metrics haven't been improved a ton, but it's an inaccurate science still when compared to some of the hitting/pitching metrics out there.

On topic, the difference in fielders is actually my biggest peeve with the game. It always feels like there is just about zero danger if somehow Josh Hamilton winds up catching behind the plate or Prince Fielder is moved over to SS.

[Knight165]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I totally agree with you on UZR ....

I also agree that the degree of difference in fielding between players is just not great enough.....even in positions that players are not rated for.

I think part of it stems from one thing....that unlike IRL there is not an endless pool of players to fill the levels(probably why there is a limit to how many players will get injured too) and if a team's level only has one 2B....it's got to allow for someone to play there.
I don't particularly know if that is part of the reasoning(a guess) and if it is...I don't particularly like it....but it could be why we don't see Jason Bay making 99 errors if he's playing 3B.

Hopefully this gets changed...even if it's some this year and then improved on year by year.

M.K.
Knight165

[CabreraMVP]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I think the best way to determine defensive ability is just your own eyes. It seems to be the only accurate thing.

[ChaseB]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I totally agree with you on UZR ....

I also agree that the degree of difference in fielding between players is just not great enough.....even in positions that players are not rated for.

I think part of it stems from one thing....that unlike IRL there is not an endless pool of players to fill the levels(probably why there is a limit to how many players will get injured too) and if a team's level only has one 2B....it's got to allow for someone to play there.
I don't particularly know if that is part of the reasoning(a guess) and if it is...I don't particularly like it....but it could be why we don't see Jason Bay making 99 errors if he's playing 3B.

Hopefully this gets changed...even if it's some this year and then improved on year by year.

M.K.
Knight165

Yeah, I mean I think there has to be a balance. I get that you can't have the third-string catcher -- who just might happen to be Vlad Guerrero in this case for some reason -- crap the bed after every pitch or not know any of the pitcher signs etc., but it's mostly not noticeable at all at this point. Everything from an outfielder's routes and his speed to the infielder's arm, accuracy and agility does not feel quite there. Outfielder routes/speed might be my biggest issue at this point, but I'm not quite sure how you make an awful corner outfielder take a horrible loopy route to a ball unless you take user control out of the equation. The speed should be easier to solve -- maybe make a bad fielder more tentative or unable to make it to a full sprint on a ball hit on a line right at him in the outfield.

Really I just want to feel some amount of danger if I play a sub-par fielder.

[ChaseB]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I think the best way to determine defensive ability is just your own eyes. It seems to be the only accurate thing.

If you're talking real life, then yeah, fielding is still more about scouting at this point (especially when it comes to the catcher position). If the MLB gets all the fielding data for how every ball is hit in terms of speed and angle -- plus you figure out where each fielder was positioned at the time of each hit -- then the fielding metrics will really take off I would think.

[Knight165]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

Yeah, I mean I think there has to be a balance. I get that you can't have the third-string catcher -- who just might happen to be Vlad Guerrero in this case for some reason -- crap the bed after every pitch or not know any of the pitcher signs etc., but it's mostly not noticeable at all at this point. Everything from an outfielder's routes and his speed to the infielder's arm, accuracy and agility does not feel quite there. Outfielder routes/speed might be my biggest issue at this point, but I'm not quite sure how you make an awful corner outfielder take a horrible loopy route to a ball unless you take user control out of the equation. The speed should be easier to solve -- maybe make a bad fielder more tentative or unable to make it to a full sprint on a ball hit on a line right at him in the outfield.

Really I just want to feel some amount of danger if I play a sub-par fielder.

I hear ya'.
Believe it or not...it's probably more important to me as a MoM player to have the sense of "needing" to make defensive subs and such.
Trust me...I'm always in Brian's ear about this...MR pitchers(appearances....we've had a LOOOONG talk about this! ) and the difference from 1-99 needs to be in the attributes and/or sliders.
They hear us...they just want everything to be smooth in a possible transition.

M.K.
Knight165

[ChaseB]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

I hear ya'.
Believe it or not...it's probably more important to me as a MoM player to have the sense of "needing" to make defensive subs and such.
Trust me...I'm always in Brian's ear about this...MR pitchers(appearances....we've had a LOOOONG talk about this! ) and the difference from 1-99 needs to be in the attributes and/or sliders.
They hear us...they just want everything to be smooth in a possible transition.

M.K.
Knight165

Yeah relievers are another tricky area. But you're right on my point. While I think there is some amount of over-managing that goes on in the MLB today (more on the bullpen side of things than hitting/defense), I still want to feel like a late defensive sub is going to potentially save me.

[brewers828]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

Yes, UZR is not an exact science but when looking at the top fielders at each position according to UZR, it does seem to be fairly accurate.

1b
1.Barton
2. Davis
3. Laroche
4. Lee
5. Votto

2b
1. Utley
2. Ellis
3. Hudson
4. Phillips
5. Johnson

3b
1. Headley
2. Kouzmanoff
3. Zimmerman
4. Beltre
5. Longoria

SS
1. Brendan Ryan
2. Alexei Ramirez
3. Pennington
4. Drew
5. Tulowitzki

RF
1. Bruce
2. Ichiro
3 Upton
4. Heyward
5. Drew

CF
1. Bourn
2. Byrd
3. Borbon
4. Guttierrez
5. Span

LF
1. Gardner
2. Crawford
3. Pierre
4. Holliday
5. Soriano

UZR is not perfect but with the exception of LF (Holliday, Soriano), I would say that the other players on this list are good defenders. I guess UZR intrigues me because you do not see the obviously bad defenders (Prince, Dunn, etc.) finding their way to the top of the rankings. I never was a UZR or defensive stat guy until the Angels moved Torii Hunter to RF last year. They moved one of the better outfielders in history to a corner spot. His UZR was below average the last 5 years in CF. Do I personally think Torii Hunter is a below average defender, no but I do think there has to be some validity there or the Angels would not move their franchise player, perennial gold glover to RF.

I'm not sure how The Show can incorporate Defensive skills. The problem with defense is that it is 90% anticipation and instinct. How can you put that in a video game? Good luck to developers! I really hope their ideas work out and this game takes a huge leap forward.

Good discussion.

[nemesis04]

Re: UZR and Fielding Metrics

^^^How is it that Teixeira is not on that list?