2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I dunno man. Thanks for the article, but it sounds fishy.

What a beautiful narrative you've constructed to completely distrust medical professionals.

Here's the thing. Most 24-year olds that are going to be great are already producing in the bigs.

Great? Who said anything about greatness? I'm saying that a slightly above league average player is better than an expensive reliever.

Cliff Pennington out WAR'd Papelbon last year (I'm quite sure). This is my point. Relievers make minimal impact. Papelbon maximizes that minimal impact, but the point stands.

My argument was performance-based. If he's not performing by 24 it's unlikely he will reach his ceiling.

I assume you've done the appropriate studies to back your findings?

]However, the case against Papelbon was just he's old and washed up and expensive. I haven't seen anything to support his being ineffective. So, the argument against Papelbon is purely age-related. Not performance-related.

Will you stop saying I said he's washed up? You're putting words in my mouth to make a point and it's absolutely ridiculous. Where have I argued his performance? Unbelievable.

The argument is value related.

AC mentioned something about Papelbon "becoming more hittable" but hasn't produced anything to back that up yet.

WHAT? This is ridiculous. Unless you can't read Plate Discipline statistics, in which case I'll give you a pass, but seriously, reading what I post would be nice.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...latediscipline

Look at that. I can explain it if you want. Not that hard.

It's true, players decline as they age, but many players (especially relievers where athleticism is not front and center) can have unique decline curves.

Stop expecting outliers.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I have read scouting reports, I've actually watched video on him, and...

Hmm...but apparently just didn't know how to interpret them...

Yeah, because "fringe" and "are we talking about Mike Olt" are definitely positive reviews. And if you thought his defense was maybe above average, why the hell are you pushing Olt-to-1B?

Those are scouting reports, and words from those. You seem to be mistaking that as stuff I've published on him. Why is that?

Okay, so how's that even slightly relevant, pray tell?

Travis d'Arnaud is 24? BUSTBUSTBUSTBUSTBUST

I think you already know how I feel about D'Arnaud, so...not sure that's the best example. I DO think he'll be a bigtime bust. As I do for most 24-year olds with injury problems in the minors.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/08/rangers-prospect-mike-olt-is-on-the-triple-a-disabled-list-with-vision-problems/

They had him on the DL, and he's coming back, and he's obviously getting readjusted.

Yeah, but a severe concussion that affected his vision for the better part of a year (since November) and they're just now taking him to see the eye doctor? I'd have the dude admitted to the hospital if I thought there were a potentially severe concussion at play. This sounds like reasoning after the fact.

lol that's an argument if we've ever seen one! Tell me, how do you think his .230 BABIP And 0.0% HR/FB will project long term? Sustainable?

I do think Olt strikes out too much. I'm not sure how he hit his 1 HR on a ground ball though He does have 1 HR. I assume it was on a "fly ball." He's not as bad as a .130 hitter, but he's certainly not a top 25 prospect either anymore.

Aaaaaaaaaaand we've reached complete ignorance. Willy Mays started his career 1-26. Jesus. It's baseball. There are slumps. Seriously?

Was Willie 24 already? LOL

BOLD

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What would be the best trade to get Giancarlo Stanton and David Price to the Rangers? I'm thinking Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt will be the two main pieces for these two trades to help out the Rangers current team.

Profar + Olt + Buckel + Grimm for Price.

Profar + Olt + Martin + Perez + Grimm for Stanton.

Just a rough estimate.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Fishy? It's ESPN, one of the most trusted sports websites. If your talking about Olt's story, why would someone, mind you, a TOP PROSPECT lie about an injury? He's practically got it made! He probably thought it was just a little thing that would come and go, but it was bigger. I don't think he's lying.

Why would a top prospect try to hit a ball he couldn't see? What seems more illogical to you?

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Here's the thing. Most 24-year olds that are going to be great are already producing in the bigs.

My argument was performance-based. If he's not performing by 24 it's unlikely he will reach his ceiling.

That is just totally...

Basically he is a year behind (in your standards). If he was 23, you probably wouldn't even bring up his age, but since he's 24.. "he's not going to reach his ceiling."

Come on dude, you are just splitting hairs. He is stuck behind a great 3B in Adrian Beltre and 2 solid 1B's in Berkman and Moreland. It's not because he's "not going to reach his ceiling", it's because the MLB team already has a lot of talent at his position and there is no reason to rush him up, causing more roster issues and conflict.

I think Olt is just a victim of being in a bad situation. If he was on a team that actually needed a 3B, he would probably be in the bigs right now.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why do you guys continue to argue with someone who clearly has no idea what he is talking about and refuses to listen.

[CameRoN0407]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why would a top prospect try to hit a ball he couldn't see? What seems more illogical to you?

It's not that he can't see, it's that his vision declined from before. Your posts are honestly lacking stats, and other means of proof, which would make your posts more persuasive.

Jose Bautista didn't bloom 'til what? 28? Just because they turn 24, are a top prospect, and are in AAA doesn't mean they are a bust. Not everyone is a Stanton, Harper, Trout, etc.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

It's not that he can't see, it's that his vision declined from before. Your posts are honestly lacking stats, and other means of proof, which would make your posts more persuasive.

Jose Bautista didn't bloom 'til what? 28? Just because they turn 24, are a top prospect, and are in AAA doesn't mean they are a bust. Not everyone is a Stanton, Harper, Trout, etc.

Randy Johnson didnt debut till he was 25 and still got to 300 wins.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What would be the best trade to get Giancarlo Stanton and David Price to the Rangers? I'm thinking Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt will be the two main pieces for these two trades to help out the Rangers current team.

BOTH of them?

I did Price to the Rangers. Was something like Profar + Buckel + Alfaro + Gallo + Grimm for Price + McGee + Peralta.

That is just totally...

Basically he is a year behind (in your standards). If he was 23, you probably wouldn't even bring up his age, but since he's 24.. "he's not going to reach his ceiling."

Come on dude, you are just splitting hairs. He is stuck behind a great 3B in Adrian Beltre and 2 solid 1B's in Berkman and Moreland. It's not because he's "not going to reach his ceiling", it's because the MLB team already has a lot of talent at his position and there is no reason to rush him up, causing more roster issues and conflict.

I think Olt is just a victim of being in a bad situation. If he was on a team that actually needed a 3B, he would probably be in the bigs right now.

Actually a year could mean the difference between a top 100 prospect and off the list. Age doesn't innately make someone worse if they're older, but it gives them less time to reach their ceiling.

But the simple, empirical data shows that most good and great players you can think of got their start in the 19-22 year old range.

Show me some players who were great players but didn't really get a foothold in MLB until 24-25 years old....I bet you'd find a lot more in the 19-22 range.

I agree with you that part of the reason is being blocked, but I also just think he's not going to be as good as advertised.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Randy Johnson didnt debut till he was 25 and still got to 300 wins.

OK, so that's 1 example......

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Hmm...but apparently just didn't know how to interpret them...

No, you just don't understand the concept of 'playing time' and 'value' and 'WAR.'

Those are scouting reports, and words from those. You seem to be mistaking that as stuff I've published on him. Why is that?

I'm sorry, but when someone posts something as evidence to back up a point, I'm quite sure that they believe that, no?

I think you already know how I feel about D'Arnaud, so...not sure that's the best example. I DO think he'll be a bigtime bust. As I do for most 24-year olds with injury problems in the minors.

Danny Hultzen is turning 24 this year. Sean Nolin is 24. Matt Barnes is just about 23. Alex Meyer is 23 1/2. James Paxton turns 25 this year. Jake Odorizzi is 23. Chris Archer turns 25 this year. Should I go on? I can go on. 24 is still prospect age.

Yeah, but a severe concussion that affected his vision for the better part of a year (since November) and they're just now taking him to see the eye doctor? I'd have the dude admitted to the hospital if I thought there were a potentially severe concussion at play. This sounds like reasoning after the fact.

Blurred vision reoccurs after a concussion. It's called PCS. I have it. It's not fun.

He's not as bad as a .130 hitter, but he's certainly not a top 25 prospect either anymore.

So what? What does that have to do with ANYTHING?

Was Willie 24 already? LOL

Starlin Castro posted an 85 wRC+ from June2012-August2012.

A player that great should never have a bad month.

[CameRoN0407]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, so that's 1 example......

Mariano Rivera didn't debut until 25. Best. Closer. Ever.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why do you guys continue to argue with someone who clearly has no idea what he is talking about and refuses to listen.

Who're you referring to pal? I've forgotten more baseball....well...let's not go there.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Who're you referring to pal? I've forgotten more baseball....well...let's not go there.

Then why waste your time?

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Why do you guys continue to argue with someone who clearly has no idea what he is talking about and refuses to listen.

Because he's intelligent and I love to argue.

OK, so that's 1 example......

Mariano Rivera, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Randy Johnson, Joe Nathan, Dante Bichette (even though he may have sucked), Dave Stewart, Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Sandy Koufax, Jamie Moyer, R.A. Dickey, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Dazzy Vance, Darren Oliver, Kevin Millar, Al Leiter, Nelson Cruz, Dennis Eckersly, Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, David Ortiz, and David Cone, all late bloomers.