2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

[brettryantalley]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

for what it's worth...i love using re-rate rosters, as they seem to me more accurate than the stock ratings and i'm looking forward to see what comes from all of this conversation that i can't understand.

[Microsoft_Works]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Hey gtm, it's useable now, it's just a matter of going through and figuring out where to input the stats to get the ratings. I haven't sat down and looked the whole thing through yet, but it's all there and working (manually inputting the info, that is).

Have you or anyone else discovered what stats and where to input them to get the excel file to spit out control/break ratings? I can't seem to figure it out.

[Microsoft_Works]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Just doing some spreadsheet work on strikes/balls (in zone %) by pitch type, and came up with a back of the napkin method of assigning control and break to pitches, absent pitch fx data.

[1] Calculate a base control rating (BB9*.67+HR9*.33)
[2] Calculate a base break rating (k9*.67+H9*.33)

Essentially operating on the idea that better located pitches are harder to hit out, and better moving pitches are harder to contact in general.

When I looked at it in the spreadsheet the usual suspects were at the top for control (Hallday, Lee, etc) and same with break (Yes, Marmol is the devil).

[3] Multiply base control by a modifier for each pitch type (based on the frequency those pitches are in the zone per MLB average).

4SFB = CON * 1.03
2SFB = CON * .98
CUT = CON * .96
CURV = CON *.93
SLID = CON * .95
SPL/FK = CON * .81
CHANGE = CON *.84
KNUCK = CON * 1.12

To my surprise a greater % of knuckleballs are in the zone than fastballs, and changeups and splits are the least likely pitches to be "in the zone", but given their usage that could be expected (start in the zone, drop out). Nobody throws a "backdoor" splitter (and lives to tell about it).

[4] Pitchers with good movement, generally have good movement all the way around so the modifier is applied to pitches in terms of their usage (or value).

BEST PITCH = BRK * 1
2ND BEST = BRK * .95
3RD BEST = BRK * .9
4TH BEST = BRK *.85
5TH BEST = BRK * .8

Again, looking at it in the spreadsheet ... everything looks good. The question is how the values will work in the game, but again after 40 hours of entering rating and rating relationships, the values pass the sniff test. Nobody with a 67 k9 rating will have a pitch with a break of 92, so while playing the game, the tough pitchers will be the hardest to hit, and the average ones will still be average. There also won't be anything like Greinke's curveball on MVP05 (remember that 65mph huge bender?).

I'll use this for minor leaguers whose rating increased significantly from 2010 to 2011, or newly created players. One just needs to know what their best pitch is ...

Another source is OOTP ... where individual pitches have rating to along with a "stuff" rating, and control. The program essentially places a "pitch modifier" on the stuff and control ratings. Similar process.

Fangraphs and other sites can be used to get individual pitch values, that someone could work a formula out on, but it'd probably just be easier to use bahnzo's formulas while anually entering pitch fx data.

I'm just working on formulas that can give a realistic estimate given a pitchers repitoire and his general stat and rate lines.

============================

Edit: Marmol's slider in OSFMv2 is CON: 42, BRK: 98. With this formulas it's CON:55, BRK: 94. Close ... and you can't hit either version ... nor can you lay off of it as it goes of the corner with 2 strikes. *big grin*

Obviously, Lincecum, Strasberg, Kershaw, Champman, etc throw some devestating pitches ... Lincecum and Strasburg multiple devastating pitches.

Not sure what I am doing wrong with this formula, with the results I'm getting though something is off.

For example, pitcher with a 4.5 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9.
4.5 * .67 = 3.015

0.7 * .33 = 0.231

Total: 3.246

And then to find his control for a 4-seam fastball... 3.246 * 1.03 = 3.34338

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Not sure what I am doing wrong with this formula, with the results I'm getting though something is off.

For example, pitcher with a 4.5 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9.
4.5 * .67 = 3.015

0.7 * .33 = 0.231

Total: 3.246

And then to find his control for a 4-seam fastball... 3.246 * 1.03 = 3.34338

You're using the BB/9 STAT, instead of the RATING.

[JaFFiTh]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Just doing some spreadsheet work on strikes/balls (in zone %) by pitch type, and came up with a back of the napkin method of assigning control and break to pitches, absent pitch fx data.

[1] Calculate a base control rating (BB9*.67+HR9*.33)
[2] Calculate a base break rating (k9*.67+H9*.33)

Essentially operating on the idea that better located pitches are harder to hit out, and better moving pitches are harder to contact in general.

When I looked at it in the spreadsheet the usual suspects were at the top for control (Hallday, Lee, etc) and same with break (Yes, Marmol is the devil).

[3] Multiply base control by a modifier for each pitch type (based on the frequency those pitches are in the zone per MLB average).

4SFB = CON * 1.03
2SFB = CON * .98
CUT = CON * .96
CURV = CON *.93
SLID = CON * .95
SPL/FK = CON * .81
CHANGE = CON *.84
KNUCK = CON * 1.12

To my surprise a greater % of knuckleballs are in the zone than fastballs, and changeups and splits are the least likely pitches to be "in the zone", but given their usage that could be expected (start in the zone, drop out). Nobody throws a "backdoor" splitter (and lives to tell about it).

[4] Pitchers with good movement, generally have good movement all the way around so the modifier is applied to pitches in terms of their usage (or value).

BEST PITCH = BRK * 1
2ND BEST = BRK * .95
3RD BEST = BRK * .9
4TH BEST = BRK *.85
5TH BEST = BRK * .8

Again, looking at it in the spreadsheet ... everything looks good. The question is how the values will work in the game, but again after 40 hours of entering rating and rating relationships, the values pass the sniff test. Nobody with a 67 k9 rating will have a pitch with a break of 92, so while playing the game, the tough pitchers will be the hardest to hit, and the average ones will still be average. There also won't be anything like Greinke's curveball on MVP05 (remember that 65mph huge bender?).

I'll use this for minor leaguers whose rating increased significantly from 2010 to 2011, or newly created players. One just needs to know what their best pitch is ...

Another source is OOTP ... where individual pitches have rating to along with a "stuff" rating, and control. The program essentially places a "pitch modifier" on the stuff and control ratings. Similar process.

Fangraphs and other sites can be used to get individual pitch values, that someone could work a formula out on, but it'd probably just be easier to use bahnzo's formulas while anually entering pitch fx data.

I'm just working on formulas that can give a realistic estimate given a pitchers repitoire and his general stat and rate lines.

============================

Edit: Marmol's slider in OSFMv2 is CON: 42, BRK: 98. With this formulas it's CON:55, BRK: 94. Close ... and you can't hit either version ... nor can you lay off of it as it goes of the corner with 2 strikes. *big grin*

Obviously, Lincecum, Strasberg, Kershaw, Champman, etc throw some devestating pitches ... Lincecum and Strasburg multiple devastating pitches.

I have a question about the break. I'm using Bahzno's stuff, got my own spreadsheet and all that. Eventhough the Break on his goes by break length, no idea where I'm supposed to find that, looked through all the Pitch FX.. no idea what he did to get to that... if you have any idea.. let me know.

Anyways back to your post.. one problem about the break is it goes by the top pitch. For example Halladay, cutter is his top pitch (or most pitch thrown) while his curveball which is really good is down in the 4th cause he doesn't throw it as much as the top 3, so that means the break will be low for the curveball. Any way you could make it go by the break on the pitch fx, so that way they will break the way it should instead of going by your method and have the one with most break down in the bottom due to lack of number of pitches. I have been trying to figure it out but no clue so I'm letting the expert do the work lol.

Just thought it would be easier for us who don't really follow other pitchers or other teams as much as our true teams. Otherwise, pretty impressive

[nmazz]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

I have a question about the break. I'm using Bahzno's stuff, got my own spreadsheet and all that. Eventhough the Break on his goes by break length, no idea where I'm supposed to find that, looked through all the Pitch FX.. no idea what he did to get to that... if you have any idea.. let me know.

i would also like to find this out if anyone has the answer. thanks

[DudeitsKudo]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

First off, TT I would like to say thank you very much for all the information you've given us!

Now, I have a question. You gave us a link with the Splits, however how are you guys finding the Power L/R? Unless I'm blind, no one is giving 2011 Predictions based on LHP and RHP. Sorry if the answer is obviously, however I have tried looking / thinking and nothing!

[MattUMD224]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

[4] Ratings Formulas

I had all my formulas made, and then I stumbled upon Bahnzo’s spreadsheets. In these spreadsheets you can view the formulas he uses. Since this was released to the public, I figured I could use the formulas. I noticed that the results that his formulas come up with were about 10 points less in contact, power, vision, and discipline, when compared to knight’s ratings. So, I made my formulas a “little high” and averaged them with Bahnzo’s. The result is a system that can be applied to all players in a uniform and consistent manner … and be congruent with Knight’s ratings and my slider. *grin*

Here are the formulas …

Durability
-----------
(GP/162)*100

Contact
----------
Bahnzo
=IF((BA/1000)<0.28,(((BA/1000)*254.315428326364)-(((0.28-(BA /1000))*254.315428326364)/0.6)),(( BA /1000)*254.315428326364)+(((( BA /1000)-0.28)*254.315428326364)*1))

Me
=68+(((Y80-0.269)*1000)/2)

It’s basically “average starter rating + the difference in players BA and league average BA, with the difference divided by 2 in order to keep it to scale.

As I mentioned before, BA/4 works rather well too.

Power
---------
Bahnzo
=IF(HR550<18,(( HR550*3.0256)+((18- HR550)*0.65)),( HR550*3.0256)-((( HR550-18)*3.0256)/1.9))
HR550 = Home runs per 550 AB’s. It can be calculated with (550/AB)*HR

Me
=(58+(((HR550-15)*2)))*0.95

58=average starter power rating; 18-average HR550

Vision
---------
Bahnzo
=(((((650/PA)*SO)*0.590223)+((108-((650/ PA)* SO)))*1.05)-(10-(( PA / SO)/1.5)))

Me
=62+((100-K550)/2)

K550 = strikeouts per 550 At Bats

Discipline
----------------
Bahnzo
=IF(((650/PA)*BB)>60,((((650/ PA)* BB)*1.205393)-((((650/ PA)* BB)-60)*0.52)),((((650/ PA)* BB)*1.205393)+((60-((650/ PA)* BB))*0.15)))

Me
=67+((BB550 - 55)*0.9)
67=average DIS rating; 55=average BB550

Speed
---------------
Modified James Speed Score

5 formulas, averaged to get a “speed score” and multiplied by a modifier to get a speed rating.

So how exactly would we type this information into a calculator to get the correct ratings. I have no idea what is going on here. Yet i want to learn about it so much. I'm intrigued by this.

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

First off, TT I would like to say thank you very much for all the information you've given us!

Now, I have a question. You gave us a link with the Splits, however how are you guys finding the Power L/R? Unless I'm blind, no one is giving 2011 Predictions based on LHP and RHP. Sorry if the answer is obviously, however I have tried looking / thinking and nothing!

This is where I had to do some stuff on my own.

For me, I used the ratio of ISO versus Righties and ISO vs. lefties to create a multiplier that would give me the # of HRs the player would hit in 550ABvL and 550ABvR, and then plugged that # into the equation.

So (ISOvR/ISO)*(HR550) = # of HR v. R in 550AB

(ISOvL/ISO)*(HR550) - # of HR v. L in 550AB

The ratio creates the modifier.

You just have to use standard stats to calculate ISO (Isolated Power).

ISO = SLG - BAVG

The actual split data would be contained in both slugging and batting average. What you're/we're trying to do with this is isolate the "HR Power" aspect of it, which is what ISO does.

[DudeitsKudo]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

This is where I had to do some stuff on my own.

For me, I used the ratio of ISO versus Righties and ISO vs. lefties to create a multiplier that would give me the # of HRs the player would hit in 550ABvL and 550ABvR, and then plugged that # into the equation.

So (ISOvR/ISO)*(HR550) = # of HR v. R in 550AB

(ISOvL/ISO)*(HR550) - # of HR v. L in 550AB

The ratio creates the modifier.

You just have to use standard stats to calculate ISO (Isolated Power).

ISO = SLG - BAVG

The actual split data would be contained in both slugging and batting average. What you're/we're trying to do with this is isolate the "HR Power" aspect of it, which is what ISO does.

Thanks TT. So, just to make sure I understand this correctly. So is this the process in which I'd figure all this out?

Lets use Robinson Cano for example. ZIP projects him as .298 BA, 24 HR, and .491 SLG in 612 AB. (21.56 HR/550AB)

Using the splits, that'll give us;
Vs. RHP: .305 BA and .495 SLG
Vs. LHP: .282 BA and .481 SLG

Using ISO = SLG - BA we'd get;
ISO = 0.193
ISOvR = 0.190
ISOvL = 0.199

So all I'd do is;

(ISOvR/ISO)*(HR550) = # of HR v. R in 550AB
(0.190/0.193)*(21.56) = 21.23 HR/550AB v. R

(ISOvL/ISO)*(HR550) - # of HR v. L in 550AB
(0.199/0.193)*(21.56) = 22.32 HR/550AB v. R
------------------

So I'd just use the 21.23 HR and 22.32 HR for the Power formula?

[DSzymborski]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

Thanks TT. So, just to make sure I understand this correctly. So is this the process in which I'd figure all this out?

Lets use Robinson Cano for example. ZIP projects him as .298 BA, 24 HR, and .491 SLG in 612 AB. (21.56 HR/550AB)

Using the splits, that'll give us;
Vs. RHP: .305 BA and .495 SLG
Vs. LHP: .282 BA and .481 SLG

Using ISO = SLG - BA we'd get;
ISO = 0.193
ISOvR = 0.190
ISOvL = 0.199

So all I'd do is;

(ISOvR/ISO)*(HR550) = # of HR v. R in 550AB
(0.190/0.193)*(21.56) = 21.23 HR/550AB v. R

(ISOvL/ISO)*(HR550) - # of HR v. L in 550AB
(0.199/0.193)*(21.56) = 22.32 HR/550AB v. R
------------------

So I'd just use the 21.23 HR and 22.32 HR for the Power formula?

I have ZiPS out with projected platoon splits out now. A little too late for you guys to use en masse (I'll try to have splits out earlier next year, this is the first time I've projected those), but it might still come in handy if you make more players. I'll try and have ZiPS spit out some of these formulae for Show ratings next year for roster creators.

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

I have ZiPS out with projected platoon splits out now. A little too late for you guys to use en masse (I'll try to have splits out earlier next year, this is the first time I've projected those), but it might still come in handy if you make more players. I'll try and have ZiPS spit out some of these formulae for Show ratings next year for roster creators.

Dan, I'm compiling a "stats/ratings packet" to send yto you. Some issues I have trying to resolve is that some ratings are necessarily a "one formula" deal, and I'm trying to figure out the easiest/simplest way to address that.

[DSzymborski]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

Dan, I'm compiling a "stats/ratings packet" to send yto you. Some issues I have trying to resolve is that some ratings are necessarily a "one formula" deal, and I'm trying to figure out the easiest/simplest way to address that.

Much obliged. If there's any way I can help out in general, please let me know.

[MattUMD224]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

have you checked out Kritters Excel file for projected ratings

[nitramodarp]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, &amp; Discussion ...

Can some one explain how to the speed formula? Little lost on that one.
thanks.