2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

[emath]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

"(I may just be making crap up at this point)"

That's hilarious, TT! Anyway, yeah, I think any form of pulling the info off of Baseball Reference and into a spreadsheet in copy and paste form is going to require a ton of work (as you alluded to). I guess the simple (and somewhat archaic) way would be to manually input stats into a spreadsheet and let it calculate the ratings that way.

Dang guys. You are spoiled or something. lol

Entering stats is the only way I have ever done it. From High Heat, to MVP 05, to The Show. Hell, I didn't even use Bohnzos roster tool BECAUSE I wasn't able to enter my own stats. I even PMed him a request asking if it were possible to add that ability in the future. That way I could use it for players pre-1954, where I could use a split estimator program and enter the splits that way.

Might take me a little while longer, but I get a ton more enjoyment out of actually going to the BB-ref site and seeing the stats, and info.

[gtm]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

"(I may just be making crap up at this point)"

That's hilarious, TT! Anyway, yeah, I think any form of pulling the info off of Baseball Reference and into a spreadsheet in copy and paste form is going to require a ton of work (as you alluded to). I guess the simple (and somewhat archaic) way would be to manually input stats into a spreadsheet and let it calculate the ratings that way.

That's my thinking also. Just take Baseball-Reference out of the equation. Manually adding a certain number (whatever that may be) into the formula that would excute getting the attributes, would be the way. Just my guess.

[Joey]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes, Bahnzo's roster tools program did spoil us. So?!?

It was a great program and very convenient for editing roster sets. And yes, it IS a lot more work to input everything manually instead of just pulling up players in a program. But for the record, I actually enjoy looking up the stats on BB Ref too. It's hard enough, though, to find time to play the game, period - much less all the extra time to edit roster sets.

Dang guys. You are spoiled or something. lol

Entering stats is the only way I have ever done it. From High Heat, to MVP 05, to The Show. Hell, I didn't even use Bohnzos roster tool BECAUSE I wasn't able to enter my own stats. I even PMed him a request asking if it were possible to add that ability in the future. That way I could use it for players pre-1954, where I could use a split estimator program and enter the splits that way.

Might take me a little while longer, but I get a ton more enjoyment out of actually going to the BB-ref site and seeing the stats, and info.

[gtm]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

For those of you who use baseball-reference, how do you calculate and get all the attribute numbers?

[Joey]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

I'm guessing everyone either uses a chart they made up (such as a .290 AVG = an 82 contact, or something like that) or they plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and let a formula calculate the ratings (like Bahnzo and TT).

For those of you who use baseball-reference, how do you calculate and get all the attribute numbers?

[Rwings832]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes Bahnzo did spoil us, he made it pretty easy, but I like to look at the stats too, so I will probably just have to come up with ratings myself, or try to use a spreadsheet of some sort.

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Fellas, you can manually enter stats into Bahnzo's spreadsheet.

Everything in there can be manually edited, pitch stats, season stats, 3 year averages, etc.

It's just my preference to have the technology do as many of the "mindless steps" as possible. The important stuff is figuring out the formulas, etc.

[Joey]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes. For example, plugging in stats on the "CalcSplits" tab gives you the Batting Ratings on the first tab/sheet on Bahnzo's spreadsheet.

I know that you know this, TT, I was just letting others know that may not be aware.

Fellas, you can manually enter stats into Bahnzo's spreadsheet.

Everything in there can be manually edited, pitch stats, season stats, 3 year averages, etc.

It's just my preference to have the technology do as many of the "mindless steps" as possible. The important stuff is figuring out the formulas, etc.

[Rwings832]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes. For example, plugging in stats on the "CalcSplits" tab gives you the Batting Ratings on the first tab/sheet on Bahnzo's spreadsheet.

I know that you know this, TT, I was just letting others know that may not be aware.

oh ok I see, does baseball reference have the splits of L or R, average wise?

[Joey]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes. If you go to a player's individual page, you can mouse over where it says "Splits" at the top of the Batting Table (first table on the page), and select the year you want. Then it will pull up their splits which you will find under "Platoon Splits". There you will find info on H/AB vs both LH & RH pitchers, HR's vs both, and so on.

oh ok I see, does baseball reference have the splits of L or R, average wise?

[gtm]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Yes. If you go to a player's individual page, you can mouse over where it says "Splits" at the top of the Batting Table (first table on the page), and select the year you want. Then it will pull up their splits which you will find under "Platoon Splits". There you will find info on H/AB vs both LH & RH pitchers, HR's vs both, and so on.

Joey, are you saying this by memory? We can't use Bahnzo's roster tool for anything, correct?

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Just an update...

I went back and averaged ZiPS projections with THT (The Hardball Times) projections. Doing this was a short-term loss, long-term gain.

Basically what it means is that I have ratings for ~5K players. So anyone that is "in the game" (OSFMv2 rosters) but does not have ratings in my spreadsheet is no longer in Americn baseball. I am aware of 8 retirements and 6 players signing with Japanese teams.

I also am using Bahnzo's formulas for CON, POW, VIS, DIS, STAM, H/9, HR/9, K/9, and BB/9.

I came up with my own for bunt and drag bunt, by categorizing the players into "types", and making a formula that essentially compared their contact to power rating. If you use "sac bunts" as a stat, then you're really just assigning the player a rating based on their managers tendencies. This method will be more like the players likelihood of being able to bunt successfully.

Speed uses the James Sped Score x modifier, similar process as bahnzo.

Baserunning Ability ... I came up with a series of formulas that looked at doubles versus singles, doubles versus triples, extra base hits versus home runs, stolen base success, etc. Again, it's looking at a player "type". Same deal with aggressiveness ... triples, stolen base attempts versus stolen base opportunities, etc.

There are going to be some guys whose aggressiveness is greater than their BR ability. Nyjer Morgan is a good example. Very aggressive, often very stupid. He runs a lot, but gets thrown a lot. Aggressive, but not much BR ability.

There's a lot of discussion and questions on what to do with pitch control and break ...

Here's what I am NOT going to do ... go to the pitch fx data for every single pitcher and give control and break ratings for each pitcher. If this were November, I certainly would. I don;t have that kind of time now.

How we would have done it before pitch fx, would be to work off of K/9 and BB/9, essentially that low walk guys have good control and high K guys have good movement. Guys that both will have both good control and good break.

I forget the exact process I used, but it's something like this ...

Base Control Rating = 90% of BB/9 rating; or (bb9*.9)
Base Break Rating = 90% of K/9 rating; or (K9*.9)

P1 CON = BASE + 2
P1 BRK = BASE + 2

P2 CON = BASE
P2 BRK = BASE

P3 CON = P2 CON -3
P3 BRK = P2 BRK -3

P4 CON = P3 CON -4
P4 BRK = P3 BRK -4

P5 CON = P4 CON -5
P5 BRK = P4 BRK -5

Essentially the top 3 pitches rats = the base rats, with each successive pitch being increasingly less effective than the previous one. That's how it works. A guy's 5th pitch is nowhere near as effective as his 1st.

Now, one would have to decide how to go about this ... is P1 the fastball or the pitcher's highest rated pitch? My preference, time permitting, would be the pitch with the highest value (such as at fangraphs), which includes both usage volume and effectiveness.

In these rosters I am not touching the individual pitch ratings, except for minor leaguers and guys who have a dratic ratings increase from OSFMv2 ... then I'll use the method described above.

While it may not represent a "true portrayal" of the pitchers individual pitches, it will provide a true portrayal of the pitcher's overall total effectiveness.

A part of me doesn't like, necessarily, using pitch FX data, from the simple standpoint that it removes the importance of sequencing. Roy Halldays pitches do not break more than a lot of others guys ... neither do Cliff Lees. Their control is markedly better, but they also change speeds and locations incredibly, and that is lost in pure pitch FX data. Having pitch value be based off their BB/9 and K/9 ratings.

I have not delved into pitch FX data thoroughly, nor do I have a ton of interest in doing so, for this specific action.

This is one of those things that I am not sure any one person has enough desire to go in and do each player's pitches manually ... which is why Bahnzo's tool was so valuable ... it collected, sorted, and calculated pitch values based from actual pitch data ... and it did it in seconds. I am not interested in the 100+ hours (at least) that it would take to do this manually.

[TripleThreat1973]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

I also wanto comment on Bahnzo's formulas ... simply put they're outstanding.

Previously the issue was not the power rating, but a bonehead move on my part in how I was calculating the HR/550AB v. L and v. R ... in short I did something that halved the value. *duh*

His pitcher's formulas are also very effective in limiting the extremes (99 rating v. zero ratings). He's done his work, for certain.

I know Bahnzo from the 2K boards (I'm CircleChange11 at most forums), and he was doing his thing way back when.

[arsenal123gunners]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

Hey guys,
I have done some testing for Bahnzo in the past, and at one point was doing it myself, with a Excel spreadsheet, pulling all of the stats off of baseball-reference, getting them into Excel, pretty much having everything there, from all players, to formulas, basic information, etc.

If you need any help, I would be more than happy to contribute, just hit me up.

[Kritter77]

Re: 2011 Projection-Based Rosters: Methods, Formulas, & Discussion ...

I respect you for this TT, thanks so much for your hard work!

Question, and I realize this may already have been asked, but will this also be applicable to historic rosters, and if so, could you have some kind of instructions on how to use them that way. Thanks!