Cubs 2014 OSFM

[CBoller1331]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Dan vogelbach is an underrated prospect. I'd say B+ potential. if Rizzo somehow doesn't turn out, then vogelbach's a good plan B. he'll probably be some good trade bait one the Cubs are completely locked in with Rizzo.

I'm excited for the Cubs! They've got a stellar farm system, hopefully they can start a run in 2015 or 16

[jseward92]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Dan vogelbach is an underrated prospect. I'd say B+ potential. if Rizzo somehow doesn't turn out, then vogelbach's a good plan B. he'll probably be some good trade bait one the Cubs are completely locked in with Rizzo.

I'm excited for the Cubs! They've got a stellar farm system, hopefully they can start a run in 2015 or 16

I agree that Vogelbach is a B+ but I still want to see him another season before he gets that. Right now I'd give him a B. If he progresses even more this season than there might be an argument for an A- rating.

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

The thing about the potentials is that in the end what matters is how they are rated in the game. If Vogelbach's ceiling (or reasonable ceiling) is of a _____ player, the game will determine what potential he should have.

I'm going to start getting together the list of players that should be included in OSFM, assuming that its the same restriction as before 90 players, 45 pitch, 45 hit.

Other than the obvious inclusions are there any fringe prospects that anyone would really want to see included?

[hjgilber]

Cubs 2014 OSFM

1. Baez: A - A+

The case could be made that Baez is the best player in the minors, even with Buxton. ZiPS projects him to have the highest career WAR of any player currently playing in the minor leagues. He has ridiculous power, a slight edge even on Bryant in that area. Many believe he will actually hit for a higher average than Bryant once they both reach the highest levels, due to the incredible bat speed of Baez, and Bryant's lesser bat speed resulting in more swing and miss. His approach improved significantly over the course of the season last year*, and he's proving he can stick at SS. Baez could be a generational talent, and an MVP candidate for many years. A bonus is that his #want is off the charts. Baez could be scary good, it will be fun to watch him over the next decade.



*BB% and K% by month:

April- 3.6% BB, 27.7% K

May- 4.6% BB, 22.2% K

June- 8.6% BB, 20.0% K

July- 10.6% BB, 31.9% K (Baez was promoted to AA, going through an adjustment period, but still manage to maintain the walk rate)

August- 7.8% BB, 24.2% K (Baez is fully acclimated and returns the K rates to their class A levels, while maintaining much of the increase in his BB%)



I love Bryant too, but the idea that he's so much safer than Baez is kind of silly. Once it was obvious that Baez had made an adjustment, he put up better BB and K numbers than Bryant did, while hitting for more power, all at a higher level of competition and a year younger than Bryant. That doesn't even address that Baez is a lock to stay in the IF, while Bryant isn't.



2. Bryant: A

Should be a monster power hitter, with good on base ability. Could also hit for a good average, but will need to prove it above college/A-ball. Needs to cut down on the K's and continue to prove doubters wrong about his D. Bat will play at any position, but will have most value at 3B. A lineup with Baez and Bryant in the middle will be a nightmare for pitchers for many years to come.



3. Almora: B+ - A-

.300+ hitter, GG defense, great make up. Almora could be a fixture and a star for years at the top of the Cubs' lineup.



4. Edwards: B+ - A-

Best numbers of any pitcher in the minors (not just the Cubs, the entire minors). MiLB Pitcher of the Year. Possible plus-plus FB, potentially 2 other plus pitches. If size wasn't weighed so heavily in the scouting community, he would be talked about as a future ace. Has that ceiling, questionable if he will reach it though. Will see his first AA action this year, and should really tell us what we have here.



5. Soler: B+ - A-

He was coming off of two years away from baseball and dealt with injuries all year, yet still put up a very solid line. Rust takes some time to shake off. Given the circumstances, Soler was extremely impressive last year. If he stays healthy, he could blow up and be an easy A potential prospect at this time next year. People are being too harsh on him giving him a B.



6. Alcantara: B - B+

ZiPS actually has him ranked 3rd of these, and 13th best projected career WAR of any player in the minor leagues, so he could break out even more than he did last year and turn into an A tier prospect, if he makes good on the ZiPS projection



7. Johnson: B - B+

Had a great season, potential to be a #2



8. Vogelbach: B-

Could move up to a B+ if the power goes back to what it was before last year. It's possible, given reports that he spent most of last year trying to learn to take the ball the other way more. At the present moment though, he is really a B-, at best. He is terrible on D, and he didn't hit for that much power last year (1 HR per 25.4 AB last year, 1 HR per 14.9 AB before last year).



9. Candelario: B-

Could shoot up the list next year, but I want to see the numbers match the scouting reports before I would give him a potential above a B-. He will also need to prove he can stay at 3B, because his bat won't be nearly as valuable in a corner OF position. Although, there is the potential here for him to be able to hit enough to play anywhere.



10. Vizcaino: A-

Encouraging words about Arodys from McLeod yesterday. He supposedly still has the electric stuff and is now going to focus on becoming a closer. I don't see the point in making his potential lower than this. His durability should be very low, because he's injury prone, but if he plays he should be a shut down reliever. Giving him a B something potential seems like you will just end up with a player nothing like the real life counterpart. Hopefully he is just in the game already, like he has been up to now.



11. Villanueva: B-

Showed some decent power last year, and he has a good glove at 3B. He will never really be a high OBP guy, but he is still has a pretty good shot at being a decent player.



Might do more later.

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

The thing about the potentials is that in the end what matters is how they are rated in the game. If Vogelbach's ceiling (or reasonable ceiling) is of a _____ player, the game will determine what potential he should have.

I'm going to start getting together the list of players that should be included in OSFM, assuming that its the same restriction as before 90 players, 45 pitch, 45 hit.

Other than the obvious inclusions are there any fringe prospects that anyone would really want to see included?

Post your list, and I'll give my input on additions/subtractions.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Looks like Vogelbach shed some weight.

pic.twitter.com/PedjCJt4te

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Yep I'll definitely try to get his new weight correct. If there isn't an official one for his new weight in time we can just use his reported lost weight. Or, just make it so he looks right in game, which I hoenstly prefer even if its technically incorrect.

I already know I'll need help on faces. I've always been terrible at making them. So if anyone is good at making faces and wants to make some for Cubs prospects I'll need the help for sure.

I'm getting together everything into a spreadsheet and I'll try to post that soon, just been a bit busy lately.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

I knew this would be taken care of, just wanted to post just incase no one saw. So excited to see all these guys play!

[Teigh Cubs Teigh]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Just to note, Kyle Hendricks was named the best control in the minors in Baseball Prospectus' Top Tools series. I see him as probably a C+ - B- type (78 - 83ish) potential. Possibly a good back of the rotation guy even if his "stuff" isn't all that great from what I've read.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Just to note, Kyle Hendricks was named the best control in the minors in Baseball Prospectus' Top Tools series. I see him as probably a C+ - B- type (78 - 83ish) potential. Possibly a good back of the rotation guy even if his "stuff" isn't all that great from what I've read.

Sounds like we may have another Greg Maddux in our future.

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Was hoping Hendricks might press the issue. I thought he pitched pretty well, but they have already sent him to minor league camp. Not that he had a huge chance to make the rotation anyways.

I have him at a 80 (B-) right now with him being very close to his ceiling already. His issue to me is that I don't find his breaking ball to be anything more than average, at least what I've seen of it. But if he can spot his changeup consistently it might not matter that much for him. His cutter looked pretty good as well I thought.

The one wildcard so far has been Vizcaino. His fastball looked good today, although a bit erratic. He had Lindor late on it, but couldn't get one in the strike zone to get a swing and miss on.

As of now I have Vizcaino at a B+ RP, hopefully he can get even better and since potentials can be edited he could easily be an A- CP or a B SP I feel if he progresses. I think his durability concerns limit his potential a bit as a starter, but as a closer he could be dominating if he can control his stuff.

I saw hjgilber post regarding this. Since players reach their potential in The Show almost every time I don't feel like Vizcaino should get an A-, that would mean he ends up at at least 90 in most cases. He has just too much variability in what he might end up being. I would much rather err on the side of caution.

Since potentials are editable now anyone can easily go in and tweak the potentials once they download OSFM. I just don't feel a player's ceiling should equal their in game potential in every case since a player's ceiling in real life has risk, in The Show there is very little risk to that ceiling.

His stuff will be nasty though, that is for sure. I'll make sure of that.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Was hoping Hendricks might press the issue. I thought he pitched pretty well, but they have already sent him to minor league camp. Not that he had a huge chance to make the rotation anyways.

I have him at a 80 (B-) right now with him being very close to his ceiling already. His issue to me is that I don't find his breaking ball to be anything more than average, at least what I've seen of it. But if he can spot his changeup consistently it might not matter that much for him. His cutter looked pretty good as well I thought.

The one wildcard so far has been Vizcaino. His fastball looked good today, although a bit erratic. He had Lindor late on it, but couldn't get one in the strike zone to get a swing and miss on.

As of now I have Vizcaino at a B+ RP, hopefully he can get even better and since potentials can be edited he could easily be an A- CP or a B SP I feel if he progresses. I think his durability concerns limit his potential a bit as a starter, but as a closer he could be dominating if he can control his stuff.

I saw hjgilber post regarding this. Since players reach their potential in The Show almost every time I don't feel like Vizcaino should get an A-, that would mean he ends up at at least 90 in most cases. He has just too much variability in what he might end up being. I would much rather err on the side of caution.

Since potentials are editable now anyone can easily go in and tweak the potentials once they download OSFM. I just don't feel a player's ceiling should equal their in game potential in every case since a player's ceiling in real life has risk, in The Show there is very little risk to that ceiling.

His stuff will be nasty though, that is for sure. I'll make sure of that.

Agree 100%. Who knows, maybe his lack of control actual helps him in the long run. Being dangerously wild at times has helped quite a few guys' careers.

[Teigh Cubs Teigh]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Was hoping Hendricks might press the issue. I thought he pitched pretty well, but they have already sent him to minor league camp. Not that he had a huge chance to make the rotation anyways.

I have him at a 80 (B-) right now with him being very close to his ceiling already. His issue to me is that I don't find his breaking ball to be anything more than average, at least what I've seen of it. But if he can spot his changeup consistently it might not matter that much for him. His cutter looked pretty good as well I thought.

The one wildcard so far has been Vizcaino. His fastball looked good today, although a bit erratic. He had Lindor late on it, but couldn't get one in the strike zone to get a swing and miss on.

As of now I have Vizcaino at a B+ RP, hopefully he can get even better and since potentials can be edited he could easily be an A- CP or a B SP I feel if he progresses. I think his durability concerns limit his potential a bit as a starter, but as a closer he could be dominating if he can control his stuff.

I saw hjgilber post regarding this. Since players reach their potential in The Show almost every time I don't feel like Vizcaino should get an A-, that would mean he ends up at at least 90 in most cases. He has just too much variability in what he might end up being. I would much rather err on the side of caution.

Since potentials are editable now anyone can easily go in and tweak the potentials once they download OSFM. I just don't feel a player's ceiling should equal their in game potential in every case since a player's ceiling in real life has risk, in The Show there is very little risk to that ceiling.

His stuff will be nasty though, that is for sure. I'll make sure of that.

Won't Vizcaino be in the game as an SCEA created player? I'm pretty sure he was last year unless I'm completely wrong. Didn't he have some playing time when he was with the Braves?

As for Hendricks I agree with an 80. I think he'll be a serviceable 4 or 5. I really enjoyed watching him this spring and hope that he gets a shot with the Cubs very soon. I'd love to see how he performs at the major league level. He's apparently very much into advanced statistics and scouting and he seems to believe that the additional information available to him at the major league level will help him dramatically improve his game when he gets called up. I hope he's right.

...I also hope we pull off a couple more trades with the Rangers. They seem to have gone well for us thus far.

I also really enjoyed watching Jokisch pitch. I would say that if Hendricks is an 80, he should be a notch or two behind in the 78 range. From what I've seen and read he seems to be a lefty Hendricks-lite for the most part. I'm hoping for a big breakout year from him this year.

Agree 100%. Who knows, maybe his lack of control actual helps him in the long run. Being dangerously wild at times has helped quite a few guys' careers.

Haha I would love to think this way...then I picture Marmol during the down years and shudder.

Then again when he was on top of his game he did dangerously wild as well as anyone I've personally seen in my limited years so it's not necessarily a bad thing. Just so long as his best wild years are while we're within our window of competitiveness.

I do think Viscaino will be more consistent than Marmol though simply because his mechanics seem to be a little more easily repeatable and less complicated to my admittedly untrained eye.

Right now I personally won't consider what he could be as a starter since I think he'd be eased into that role probably by next year at the earliest (again in my untrained mind haha). I think he could theoretically be very good though.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

Haha I would love to think this way...then I picture Marmol during the down years and shudder.

Then again when he was on top of his game he did dangerously wild as well as anyone I've personally seen in my limited years so it's not necessarily a bad thing. Just so long as his best wild years are while we're within our window of competitiveness.

I do think Viscaino will be more consistent than Marmol though simply because his mechanics seem to be a little more easily repeatable and less complicated to my admittedly untrained eye.

Right now I personally won't consider what he could be as a starter since I think he'd be eased into that role probably by next year at the earliest (again in my untrained mind haha). I think he could theoretically be very good though.

Right, I mean being dangerously wild doesn't obviously work for everyone, but it can be done. Good point on Marmol's mechanics. That dude was an absolute mess at the end of his Cubs career. Those 2-3 electric years were something special though.

[jseward92]

Re: Cubs 2014 OSFM

I was just wondering if you would be adding any of the international signings from last year? I know the majority of them are under 18. I'd like to see Jen-Ho Tseng since he is 19. I could or I am sure someone else will create Jiminez, Torres, etc... if you aren't going to include them.