Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

So I think we have a fairly solid working set already, so I only make a couple minor adjustments, largely cosmetic and should not affect the game that much.

######################################
Most Up-to-date Working Set [Mar. 31]

Contact: 4
Power: 5
Timing: 6
Foul Frequency: 4
Solid Hits: 4
Starter Stamina: 5
Reliever Stamina: 5
Pitcher Control: 5
Pitcher Consistency: 4
Strike Frequency: 5
Manager Hook: 5
Pickoffs: 5
Pitch Speed: 10
Fielding Errors: 7
Throwing Errors: 5
Fielder Run Speed: 4
Fielder Reaction: 4
Fielder Arm Strength: 3
BR Speed: 6
BR Steal Ability: 4
BR Steal Frequency: 8
Wind: 4
Injury Frequency: 5
#######################################

This is the set I'd recommend for people to actually use right now.

For my testing purpose, however, I'll be using Starter Stamina at 10 to see how thing go. I don't think this will change things too much, but I like to see how this changes things.

For one thing, I'd like to see if this alleviate the "6th inning run hike" issue that was evident in inning-by-inning scores:

http://www.operationsports.com/nomo1...ning-comeback/

According to Brian@SCEA, pitcher stamina has a very significant effect on the effectiveness of a pitcher, so making starters less susceptible to tiring, we may be able to lessen the issue. Pitcher hook isn't just due to stamina of course, but I want to see if AI's managerial decisions also get affected if starters can go deeper. Hence the drastic change just for testing.


In addition, my belief is that starting pitchers are generally capable of throwing more pitches than the currently popular 100 pitch count limit. With Stamina slider at 5, pitchers with Stamina rating 99 totally exhausts his energy after just over 140 pitches:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...post2043503173

which to me is too low. Even with Stamina slider at 10, he would be out of energy after just over 180 pitches. Given how violent pitching really is to one's body, limiting pitch count is always recommended for the *long-term* health of a pitcher. But just for one game... I think starters can pitch more.

A good illustration is the Japanese league. Since the sports medicine as a whole isn't particularly advanced over there, until recently, pitchers (even high school pitchers!!!) routinely threw over 150 pitches a game, start after start. (Yes, they tend to use 6-man rotation with more off-days in between, but that's not necessarily the case for high schoolers trying to win a tournament, etc..., they even pitch back-to-back. How cruel.) And their short term effectiveness doesn't suffer as much (at least not that I know).

But longer term, that's a different story... but in game, I don't think there's a concept of overuse over a long term, so it's irrelevant. All I can say is quite a few pitchers from the Japanese league don't last long probably because of such overuse. Like Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideo Nomo. They used to pitch over 150 pitches a game routinely back in Japan.

It was very painful to watch Nomo in 2004 when he could barely crack 85 mph... thought he would retire after that year, so I took advantage of being a student in SoCal and went to the Dodger stadium a few times to watch him pitch.... he kept throwing batting practice fastballs and wasn't even funny... (8.25 ERA in 18 starts!!!). That's what overuse can do to a pitcher.

(No, he didn't retire and continued pitching and really sucked for a couple more years after that... once an athlete you'll forever be athlete wanting to just play. I wish I had such a competitive tendency myself.)

Anyways, I stop babbling.... just wanna see how the testing goes. It's a boring Saturday afternoon and am working on my tax return.

[KCRoyals]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Did you upload this??

KCRoyals

[kingdevin]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Interesting perspective. I wonder what effect this may have

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

So, in this blog post:

MLB the Show: Is There Late-Inning Comeback?

one of the things that I wanted to point out was that even if there were no scripted comeback, CPU would tend to score slightly more runs in certain innings --- namely 6th, 1st, and then 9th.

In the comment section for that post, there are a lot of nice speculations as to why this is so. Much of the reasoning behind this has also been covered by a recent post by Brian@SCEA:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...post2043493906

as to why the transition between a starter and a reliever can be tricky.

Well, what about 9th inning then? In real life, the 9th inning provides the lowest scoring opportunity , presumably since one of the best pitchers in the squad fully intends to shut you down, and does so by pretty much giving his best stuff every pitch (as opposed to starters, who need to save some to pitch longer innings.).

If whoever pitch in the 9th (often closers) in the Show aren't as effective as the real-life counterparts, then one stat that could show it off is the successful conversion rate for saves. Fortunately, the game keeps track of saves and blown saves!

In real life, the rate is 68.1% [= SV / (SV + BS)... weighted 2009 - 2011 average].

    SV    BS
BAL    3    3
BOS    9    3
NYY    13    3
TB    5    5
TOR    6    2
CWS    6    5
CLE    9    2
DET    3    6
KC    5    6
MIN    9    4
LAA    11    2
OAK    8    4
SEA    6    4
TEX    9    6
ATL    6    2
MIA    7    1
WSH    7    2
NYM    1    3
PHI    13    2
CHC    3    4
CIN    5    2
HOU    4    3
MIL    9    0
PIT    4    6
STL    6    8
ARI    4    2
COL    8    3
LAD    8    4
SD    10    1
SF    4    3
        
    201    101
    66.6

So in the Show, the conversion rate is 66.6%. About 1 - 2% down from the real life.

I actually don't think this is that bad at all! Teams with very well established closers (Mariano, Papelbon, etc.) their conversion rates are very high as expected. But are closers in general still not as dominating enough as in real life? Given the earlier finding, quite possibly yes.... or maybe whoever pitches in the 9th other than closers are so bad that they are skewing the result here...

In any case, this feel better especially because in previous iterations of the game, I often felt closers in the game weren't very effective. At least they aren't blowing save opportunities like they often used to. My suspicion was that they come in with only moderate confidence, and once they are put in a hole they quickly melted down.

Since I'm obviously bored out of my life, I'll add my anecdote here.

In my 2011 Mets franchise, my go-to closer was none other than Francisco Rodriguez:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...post2043428113

But to be honest, I could never trust the guy because... he couldn't throw strikes (so he couldn't bring his confidence up to be effective)!! Countless times, I consider leaving Taylor Buchholz in to close the game instead. Overall Buchholz (2.96 ERA, 9 walks in 54.2 IP) pitched way better than Rodriguez (4.07 ERA, 25 walks in 55.1 IP). Yes, K-Rod did save 43 games... but those are surely inflated by easy saves with 3-run leads and stuff...

What's a closer who doesn't instill any confidence?

I actually could really understand how Bobby Valentine felt when he had John Franco and Armando Benitez in the bullpen back in late 90s. Franco has been their (dependable) closer for over a decade, but he was near the end of his career, and was a rare finesse type who issues so many walks as a closer. Benitez, then a setup guy, obviously was more suited for closing... nasty high-90 fastball and all that.

Why didn't I make Buchholz my closer then? I never could get over the high OVR and all these rating bars that make K-Rod appear so much better than Buchholz.

Even the ratings can fool you.

In any case, closers in 12 appear much more effective, and less susceptible to low confidence meltdowns, which is good.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Did you upload this??

KCRoyals

Yes. The working version in the OP, not the test one.

[ralphieboy11]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I was using these sliders and playing through a season to see how the games look. Early I was experiencing some pretty high scoring games, and this was with top starters in the first few games of the season. Maybe just an anamoly, but anyway, I decided to move Timing back to 5. Fielder reaction is at 5, and Starter stamina at 6. Everything else is the same as Nomo's latest set.

The first game I watched was 7-1 win for CWS over Texas. Peavy pitched well, but threw a lot of pitches and labored through long ABs.

The next game was Nationals at Cubs. Ryan Dempster took a perfect game into the 8th! Laroche hit a sharp single over the outstretched glove of the first baseman to lead off the 8th. That was A LOT of fun to watch. The Cubs held on to win 2-0. They gave up 4 hits total.

I'm having a lot of fun with this. Can't wait for new rosters to start managing some games.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I was using these sliders and playing through a season to see how the games look. Early I was experiencing some pretty high scoring games, and this was with top starters in the first few games of the season. Maybe just an anamoly, but anyway, I decided to move Timing back to 5. Fielder reaction is at 5, and Starter stamina at 6. Everything else is the same as Nomo's latest set.

The first game I watched was 7-1 win for CWS over Texas. Peavy pitched well, but threw a lot of pitches and labored through long ABs.

The next game was Nationals at Cubs. Ryan Dempster took a perfect game into the 8th! Laroche hit a sharp single over the outstretched glove of the first baseman to lead off the 8th. That was A LOT of fun to watch. The Cubs held on to win 2-0. They gave up 4 hits total.

I'm having a lot of fun with this. Can't wait for new rosters to start managing some games.

Yeah, this game is fun even just for watching CPU play against CPU.

I sometimes hear about high scoring games... they do happen when a pitcher fails to build up confidence early and starts getting shelled.

My observation (don't quote me though) is that pitcher with some wildness and/or with pitches that are hard to control tend to have very poor outings.

Like Roy Halladay... I posted his stats a few posts back, and I actually haven't seen him pitch very well in those settings. His ratings are obviously very good, so are his commands on pitches, but for some reason he doesn't seem to be the stud that he is IRL...

My wild guess is that his breaking pitches have a lot of movements, perhaps too much movement and in the game he may be having trouble locating them.

Same can be said about Lincecum to a certain extent.

[ralphieboy11]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I think you might be correct regarding Halladay and others. I watched Halladay's game, and he gave up 3 homers, and got rocked around a bit. Lincecum also struggled a bit in a game I watched.

I liked your observations about too many "poppy" hits with the contact 4, timing 6 combo. Too many line drives for my taste and not any bloops. Plus when you add that with the Fielder Reaction at 4, it just doesn't "look" right to me. Too many quick hits past stationary infielders. I know the stats are still good, but that's why I wanted to tweak those a bit.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I think you might be correct regarding Halladay and others. I watched Halladay's game, and he gave up 3 homers, and got rocked around a bit. Lincecum also struggled a bit in a game I watched.

I liked your observations about too many "poppy" hits with the contact 4, timing 6 combo. Too many line drives for my taste and not any bloops. Plus when you add that with the Fielder Reaction at 4, it just doesn't "look" right to me. Too many quick hits past stationary infielders. I know the stats are still good, but that's why I wanted to tweak those a bit.

Yeah good to experiment till getting the feel right... stats should stay fine as long as you don't deviate too much from default.

Contact 4 / Timing 6 was a choice mostly guided by adjusting swing & miss rate. I didn't want use Timing but there was just too many Ks if I just lowered Contact to 4. But I don't really know if the feeling of too many solid hits really comes from the increased Timing though... Lowering Contact supposedly reduces the hitting timing window (in addition to other changes), so increasing Timing a bit should just compensate for the reduction, though exact amount is of course unknown... So if I was simply recovering the timing window lost from lowering Contact by increasing Timing, then things shouldn't be that different from Contact 5 / Timing 5...

Well I'll see if reducing Solid Hit makes things a bit more appealing! At least that slider won't affect timing, discipline, and all that intertwined stuff.

[steviegolfballs]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I just played a cpu vs. cpu game with your sliders, funny you should mention Halladay because he pitched against Hudson from Atlanta at Turner Field. Here are the pitching lines:

Halladay - 9IP 1R 5H 1BB 8K, faced 33 batters, threw 133 pitches, 85 strikes

Atlanta Pitchers - 9IP 10ER 17H 7BB 5K, faced 50 batters, threw 195 pitches, 123 strikes

This game was with the Nomo March 31 sliders, the only changes are that pickoffs are set to 0 and mgr. hook is at 6.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I just played a cpu vs. cpu game with your sliders, funny you should mention Halladay because he pitched against Hudson from Atlanta at Turner Field. Here are the pitching lines:

Halladay - 9IP 1R 5H 1BB 8K, faced 33 batters, threw 133 pitches, 85 strikes

Atlanta Pitchers - 9IP 10ER 17H 7BB 5K, faced 50 batters, threw 195 pitches, 123 strikes

This game was with the Nomo March 31 sliders, the only changes are that pickoffs are set to 0 and mgr. hook is at 6.

That's a good line for him. Good to know he's capable of doing that!!

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I thought I'd post in the Vita impression thread, but all the threads are locked... it's a bit overboard even for April 1......

Well anyways, I'm running all my games on Vita, and I haven't really seen many rain days. Sounds familiar if you played 11, but I thought the bug was fixed, and people have commented how they actually seem more rain days this year... except I haven't for some reason.

For those on Vita? Are you seeing rain days? I've played all games in April, and I feel there should be more rain days in the month...

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

As far as the slider set, at least till the patch which might introduce tweaks that could change the game balance, I think the current set is fairly good in terms of stats, and also how it plays visually. Currently what I'm doing is minor tweaks for visuals and also some crazy testings just to see if we might be able to work out some minor kinks (like pitcher confidence too effective, etc.)

So if you are actually using the set (or something close to this set), then I'm all for hearing the feedback as to what needs minor tweaks.

For example, "poppiness" or tendency for line drives has been mentioned by some and also myself already... Though I don't know if this aspect is really much different from default setting, but if enough people feel that way and there's a way to correct, then I'd like to adjust here and there. My preferred way right now is to lower Solid Hit (currently at 4). So far the offense isn't down, actually up, but that's probably because a lot of 4th/5th guys are pitching right now. I'm thinking of going down to 3 produce a bit more poor hits.

So please feel free to let me know of any concerns, especially on how the game plays visually right now! I appreciate all your comments so far that have helped me find out what to tweak and not!!

[ralphieboy11]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I just played my first game with solid hits down to 3. As long as the stats aren't messed up too much, I liked the way it looked. Not as many sharp grounders to the infield, it seemed.

Reds beat the Marlins 8-0. Arroyo vs. Zambrano. Arroyo pitched the 4 hit shoutout. Striking out 4, walking 2. 118 pitches.

Zambrano got rocked, so I guess things sort of evened out stats wise in that one.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I just played my first game with solid hits down to 3. As long as the stats aren't messed up too much, I liked the way it looked. Not as many sharp grounders to the infield, it seemed.

Reds beat the Marlins 8-0. Arroyo vs. Zambrano. Arroyo pitched the 4 hit shoutout. Striking out 4, walking 2. 118 pitches.

Zambrano got rocked, so I guess things sort of evened out stats wise in that one.

I'm seeing plenty of offense at Solid Hit at 4, so I think 3 is a real possibility... besides I wouldn't mind toning down offense overall a bit (which has been consistently in .260 - .270 range; I'm targeting more in .250 - .260 range if I can).

I think the variety is already there, but depending on the pitching, you can have an offensive rout where a majority of hits are very solid, but there are games in which only few are solidly hit...

After 20 - 30 games or so I may lower the slider to 3. But I don't want to end up seeing too many choppers around the plate, so that's what I'll be watching out for.