2015 Chicago Cubs

[trackstar121388]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I know there is a lot of talk about trading Wellington Castillo. (Although lately the talk has been about possibly having 3 catchers on the main roster. Not the greatest idea) But for my franchise mode I plan on keeping Castillo and getting rid of Ross. I've always liked Castillo and have always had good stats out of him too.

[trackstar121388]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I am curious on how everyone is setting their lineup right now, or how they would set it up. I started a new franchise since we got Fowler and I am running this:

vs RHP
CF Dexter Fowler
RF Ryan Sweeney
SS Starlin Castro
1B Anthony Rizzo
C Miguel Montero
2B Javier Baez
3B Mike Olt
RF Jorge Soler
Pitcher

vs LHP
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Chris Denorfia
SS Starlin Castro
1B Anthony Rizzo
RF Jorge Soler
2B Javier Baez
3B Mike Olt
C David Ross
Pitcher

My bench is:
CF Arismendy Alcantara (2B/3B/SS)
LF Chris Coghlan
2B Tommy La Stella (3B)

I have not yet called up Kris Bryant. I'm thinking he should be my number 3 or 4 with Rizzo, but not sure yet. Thinking something like:

vs RHP
CF Dexter Fowler
SS Starlin Castro
1B Anthony Rizzo
3B Kris Bryant
C Miguel Montero
2B Javier Baez
RF Jorge Soler
LF Ryan Sweeney/Chris Coghlan
Pitcher

vs LHP
CF Dexter Fowler
SS Starlin Castro
1B Anthony Rizzo
3B Kris Bryant
RF Jorge Soler
LF Chris Denorfia
2B Javier Baez
C David Ross/Miguel Montero
Pitcher
Any thoughts on my lineup when I call up Kris Bryant? How does your lineup/roster look different for your franchise? When it comes to sports, I am quite the football expert, but when it comes to baseball, I am really more of just a fan. I would appreciate some outside input.

Thanks.

I don't plan on Sweeney starting I'll probably use Coghlan. I also plan on keeping Castillo over Ross. So my lineup would be.
RHP
CF Fowler
SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
C Montero
2B Baez
LF Coghlan
3B Olt
Pitcher

Olt and Baez's lineup positions may be flipped.

LHP
CF Fowler
SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Soler
C Castillo
2B Baez
LF Denorfia
3B Olt/Alcantara
Pitcher

When I call up Bryant which I believe is something like 8 games in but 12 days into the season then depending on how Olt is playing.

RHP
CF Fowler (S)
SS Castro (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
RF Soler (R)
C Montero (L)
2B Baez (R)
LF Coghlan (L)
3B Olt (R)
Pitcher

Olt and Baez's lineup positions may be flipped.

LHP
CF Fowler (S)
SS Castro (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
RF Soler (R)
C Castillo (R)
2B Baez (R)
LF Denorfia (R)
3B Olt (R)/Alcantara (S)
Pitcher

When I bring Bryant about 8 games in 12 days into the season. Where I place him will depend on how Olt is playing. If Olt is playing well I'm going to put Bryant in the outfield. If he's not I'll put him at 3rd.

RHP
CF Fowler (S)
SS Castro (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
RF Soler (R)
LF/3B Bryant (R)
C Montero (L)
2B Baez (R)
LF Coghlan (L)/ 3B Olt (R)
Pitcher

Olt and Baez's lineup positions may be flipped.

LHP
CF Fowler (S)
SS Castro (R)
1B Rizzo (L)
RF Soler (R)
LF/3B Bryant (R)
C Castillo (R)
2B Baez (R)
LF Denorfia (R)/3B Olt (R)/Alcantara (S)
Pitcher

I am hoping that with Alcantara's versatility I get him a lot of playing time

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

As I mentioned above, there's a certain way to read statistical data, which is why I gave error bars. The fact that he hit .237 in my 4 sims (one of which he got hurt in and struggled) doesn't mean he'd hit .237 in 4 more sims. He has a reasonable probability to hit anywhere from .189 to .285 or even a bit wider than that if you think about the variation in the data. ZiPS says he'll hit .256 for reference. To pin it down further, you'd need to collect more data.

Same with HRs. 21 +/- 7 homers means anywhere between 7 and 35 homers has a likely probability of happening in any given sim.

Ditto on the other things.

As always, people are free to make their own edits for favorite players they want to beef up.

I understand that and I don't think it's unreasonably low, just on the lower end of the spectrum that I'd expect. Any chance you could post those numbers with the injury season thrown out? I'm curious what they look like under normal circumstances.

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Nope. New charts and new formulas to account for BB% and K%. I think zips has Bryant at a 33% K rate. WTNY ran sims and adjusted Knights charts to his findings.

So if bryants vision is 18 what do you have baez at? 9?

[Ivanhoe]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

So if bryants vision is 18 what do you have baez at? 9?

Maybe -9...

[MrOldboy]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I know there is a lot of talk about trading Wellington Castillo. (Although lately the talk has been about possibly having 3 catchers on the main roster. Not the greatest idea) But for my franchise mode I plan on keeping Castillo and getting rid of Ross. I've always liked Castillo and have always had good stats out of him too.

They need Castillo's value to be quite a bit higher before moving him. If signing Ross helped land Lester than maybe it was a necessary signing, but Ross' defense/game calling isn't worth losing the upside of Castillo. People forget that Castillo although lacking in framing ability is a great blocker and controls the running game well.

Either way they need teams to value Castillo more than they do now. Everyone is just waiting on the Cubs to blink first, but the FO has shown before that they will hold out for the best deal. I would have tried Castillo at first a bit in ST even to just give the appearance of keeping him on the roster. Many in baseball just don't believe them when they say they'll keep 3 catchers on the roster. In the end though that is looking like the best option long term. Basically just hold Castillo out from other teams until they get desperate for a catcher.

[teeds]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

So if bryants vision is 18 what do you have baez at? 9?

Baez is an 18 VIS/50 DISC

[Figment]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Baez is an 18 VIS/50 DISC

I'm not usually one to argue ratings, but there is no way Baez and Bryant have the same vision rating. That one may need some adjustment in my opinion

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I'm not usually one to argue ratings, but there is no way Baez and Bryant have the same vision rating. That one may need some adjustment in my opinion

I'd put Bryant at a 33 vision IMO. Maybe lower it a little for player progression.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I understand that and I don't think it's unreasonably low, just on the lower end of the spectrum that I'd expect. Any chance you could post those numbers with the injury season thrown out? I'm curious what they look like under normal circumstances.

So if bryants vision is 18 what do you have baez at? 9?

Baez is an 18 VIS/50 DISC

I'm not usually one to argue ratings, but there is no way Baez and Bryant have the same vision rating. That one may need some adjustment in my opinion

I'd put Bryant at a 33 vision IMO. Maybe lower it a little for player progression.

1. We hybrid folks base all ratings on data, namely ZiPS projections. If you look at ZiPS for Baez, he's projected to strike out 32.6% of the time this season. Bryant is actually projected to strike out at a slightly higher clip, 32.9%. That's why their VIS ratings are so close. Now for the "stock OSFM" roster, there can certainly be some discretion as to what ratings the OSFM teams want for their own guys, but for the Hybrid roster we will be sticking to the numbers/projections and not letting bias/opinion change it unless something's obviously in error. It would be nice if we agreed on every player, but that's just not going to happen.

I don't feel that uncomfortable with Baez and Bryant having the same VIS rating and people would be wise to note that no single rating determines how a player will do (the contact, disc, etc.. are different).

For what it's worth, Bryant struck out at a 28.6% clip in AAA and Baez had a 30.0% K rate in AAA. So, the guys saying it's night and day are obviously over counting Baez's ~200 PAs in the majors last year. A recency bias. Let's not forget that Bryant is 6'5" and tall guys can get beat inside. I am wondering what Bryant will do when MLB pitchers find the holes in his swing. Bryant will certainly deposit some of those pitches onto Waveland when pitchers miss, but he'll be striking out a lot as well. I also doubt that Baez will K in 41% of his PAs again this year (or if he does, he won't last long).

2. I can run some more sims and get you some more data...since you asked so nicely

[MrOldboy]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I have Bryant's vision down low as well, so 18 seems perfectly reasonable to me. He projects to strike out a lot. It should improve over time and hopefully it does quickly so his vision rating can get bumped up a bit. But for now he projects as a very high SO major league hitter.

I think people get a bit too hung up on Bryant being a super-prospect and forget that he is still a baseball player.

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

You know us cub fans aren't used to having a prospect of this caliber, or prospects in general for that matter lol

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

You know us cub fans aren't used to having a prospect of this caliber, or prospects in general for that matter lol

What ever do you mean?

Gary Scott
Brooks Kieschnick
Kevin Orie
Mike Harkey
Angel Guzman
Robin Jennings
Brant Brown
Hee Seop Choi
Julio Zuleta
Bobby Brownlie
Mark Pawelek

Just look at those names. Our farm system has been loaded

Spoiler

with manure

for a long time!

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I understand that and I don't think it's unreasonably low, just on the lower end of the spectrum that I'd expect. Any chance you could post those numbers with the injury season thrown out? I'm curious what they look like under normal circumstances.

I can run some more sims and get you some more data...since you asked so nicely

6 piping hot fresh sims right out of the game for Kris Bryant...

596 +/- 16 PAs
.257/.325/.471 +/- .022/.017/.036
30 HR +/- 4
4.94 HR% +/- 0.59
91 RBI +/- 4
30.40 K% +/- 2.12
8.30 BB% +/- 0.53


Here are Bryant's ZiPS Projections

557 PA
.256/.339/.500
29 HR
5.21 HR%
96 RBI
32.9 K%
9.3 BB%


Pretty spot on if you ask me. These are with the exact same ratings as before.

For giggles, let's do Baez, too (average of 6 sims).

549 +/- 8 PAs
.225/.289/.421 +/- .018/.010/.045
22 HR +/- 6
3.97 HR% +/- 1.10
68 RBI +/- 15
29.93 K% +/- 1.64
7.68 BB% +/- 1.06


Here are Baez's ZiPS Projections

650 PA
.233/.283/.447
30 HR
4.62 HR%
90 RBI
32.6 K%
5.8 BB%

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

6 piping hot fresh sims right out of the game for Kris Bryant...

596 +/- 16 PAs
.257/.325/.471 +/- .022/.017/.036
30 HR +/- 4
4.94 HR% +/- 0.59
91 RBI +/- 4
30.40 K% +/- 2.12
8.30 BB% +/- 0.53


Here are Bryant's ZiPS Projections

557 PA
.256/.339/.500
29 HR
5.21 HR%
96 RBI
32.9 K%
9.3 BB%


Pretty spot on if you ask me. These are with the exact same ratings as before.

For giggles, let's do Baez, too (average of 6 sims).

549 +/- 8 PAs
.225/.289/.421 +/- .018/.010/.045
22 HR +/- 6
3.97 HR% +/- 1.10
68 RBI +/- 15
29.93 K% +/- 1.64
7.68 BB% +/- 1.06


Here are Baez's ZiPS Projections

650 PA
.233/.283/.447
30 HR
4.62 HR%
90 RBI
32.6 K%
5.8 BB%

Those look more like what I'd expect and as you said, pretty spot on (assuming they play to their projections of course). Maybe in the future when doing sims throw out significantly shortened injury seasons cause that seemed to make all the difference. Just my two cents though. These are the ratings for the hybrid roster correct? If so, you just sold me. In the past I've been afraid to venture outside of the standard osfm rosters.