Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

[oldtimey]

I have been using a roster out of the vault that had pitcher stamina ratings base on number of pitches thrown per game. This resulted in pitchers having very high pitch counts (140-150) for pitchers and too many complete games. I did not experience this with a different roster I downloaded for my franchise last year. Current roster gives pitchers a 99 stamina if they throw an average of 105+ pitches per start. So when I sim using this scale, there are too many complete games and pitch counts are too high. My sliders have picher stamina at 4, reliever formula at 0, manager hook at 5. I started experimenting and here is what i realized--the stamina rating seems to be the[I]beginning[I] of the decline of a pitcher's effectiveness. So, a rating of 99 means your starter is just beginning to tire at 100 pitches. I think stats show that starters' OBA starts to rise in the middle innings, well before 100 pitches. So I came up with this formula: pitcher stamina rating = pitch limit - 35. So, for example, you wanted to limit your young starter too a max of around 100 pitches, his stamina rating would be 65 (100 -35 = 65). If you wanted an ace to be limted to 120 pitches, his stamina should be 85 (120 - 35 = 85). Your highest starters stamina should be 85, not 99. Again, this is with my sliders. The factor of 35 came from the fact that the average complete game pitch count study in my experiment average 35 pitches over the old stamina ratings (99 stamina pitchers averaged 134 pitches per complete game; 85 stamina pitchers averaged 120 pitches per complete game. Now, your aces will be about 110-120 pitches per complete game or shaky, wild start of 6-7 innings, but your non-aces will be relieved before this point. This is how it should be for today's baseball.

I apologize if this is redundant info that I am just finding out.

[tc020791]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

This is a good find. After simming a season, about 95% of players pitching 5+ complete games have stamina ratings of 90+

[oldtimey]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

I also want to share my process for limiting relievers to an average of 1 IP per relief appearance. Reliever stamina is set at 0 in the sliders, manager hook at 5. The key is to always have a "stretched out" long man, a 6th starter, in the long relief spot in your pitching staff. A 7-man bullpen would look like this:

Cubs Bullpen ##=stamina
LRP Trevor Cahill 68
LRP
LRP
MRP Travis Wood 35
MRP Justin Grimm 32
MRP Neil Ramirez 32
MRP Aaron Crow 33
SU Pedro Strop 30
SU
CL Hector Rondon 33

Cahill in the long role will be called on by the AI manager when the starter is knocked out early. He will also log multiple innings in those games that go into extras. With relief stamina on 0, you will find that the AI manager has no tolerance when his middle guys are ineffective, but will be patient with the pitcher in the long role. So, this pitcher needs a stamina rating to handle the extended innings. These are innings that your middle/setup guys will not absorb; thus, the stat lines like 68 GP, 57 IP will be very common. In certain situations, the AI manager will yank a reliever if he permits one baserunner; in other instances, he will allow your setup man to complete a 2-inning save. This is both in simming and live games. It all balances out. But having a guy ready for those long-outing situations will keep your middle/setup/closer innings very realistic. The only side effect happens if two starters of the same team are rocked on consecutive days. The AI will choose that same (only) long man the second day and he will have it tough because of fatigue. It's rare, but it has happened.

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

Wow this looks really intriguing... Have you tested this out in Franchise by simming games?

Just curious to see what the stats look like with this approach.

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

Do you have tiers on what the stamina #'s should be?

For example... #1 pitchers fall under this tier level say 88-90 and so on for the rest of the SP's... Or something like that

#1 SP (88-90)
#2 SP ??
#3 SP ??
#4 SP ??
#5 SP ??

[tonybologna]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

Do you have tiers on what the stamina #'s should be?

For example... #1 pitchers fall under this tier level say 88-90 and so on for the rest of the SP's... Or something like that

#1 SP (88-90)
#2 SP ??
#3 SP ??
#4 SP ??
#5 SP ??

I think the OP has found something interested but let me say something. A #3 SP in the rotation might have more stamina than even the ace so just because you have a #3 guy in the rotation shouldn't mean their stamina should automatically be lower. You could say the same thing for even a #5 SP in the rotation. This is going to be different for each team. It depends on the staff.

Like Kershaw for example as a #1 guy 85-90 stamina would be accurate but for someone like Alex Wood which is what a #4 or #5 his stamina is going to be some lower but I wouldn't say his stamina would be down in the 60's necessarily. There are going to be some #2,#3,#4,& #5 SP's stamina that will be higher than the #1 SP(ace) is what I'm trying to get across.

[oldtimey]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

You can use innings pitched per start. Those guys who pitch 200+ innings will get 80-85. You can start a scale that looks like this:
220+=stamina 85
215-219=84
210-214=83
205-209=82
200-204=81
195-199=80

I am not this stringent in my franchise, but its real close. but you get the idea. For the upper IP guys, that I refer to as "horses," this is how I dole out the ratings. My number one horse is Madison Bumgarner. His stamina ratiing is 85. Someone like a healthy Adam Wainwright would also get this honor. And Kershaw.Or vintage Verlander. You will see guys with 85 will get you a CG with pitch counts of 120-130 max, with most falling between 105-115. Then, there are those like Sale, Samardzija, Arrieta and Price. They would be 82-84. Then you have Lester, Harvey, deGrom and Greinke; 80-83. You can go by strict innings per start, like above, or use opinions of your own or scouting reports. Also, a teams use can also determine how the stamina ratings work for the starters. For example, in my franchise, the Kansas City Royals number one starter, Edinson Volquez, has a stamina rating of 74. That's a team that depends heavily on its bullpen, as the rest of the rotation slides down to Chris Young with 67, the 5th starter. I hope this helps.

[oldtimey]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

With my slider settings (starter stamina=4, reliever stamina =0, manager hook=5), anything above 85 stamina rating results in the starters being allowed to throw too many pitches per start.

Edit: After a sim of a season, I found avg pitches per start might work better in determining your starting pitchers stamina. If you find that your pitch counts are still too high, try using the avg pitches per start minus 30 = stamina. So, if your starter averages 100 pitches per start, his stamina rating would be 70 (100 - 30 = 70). Very good results with this!

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

I think the OP has found something interested but let me say something. A #3 SP in the rotation might have more stamina than even the ace so just because you have a #3 guy in the rotation shouldn't mean their stamina should automatically be lower. You could say the same thing for even a #5 SP in the rotation. This is going to be different for each team. It depends on the staff.

Like Kershaw for example as a #1 guy 85-90 stamina would be accurate but for someone like Alex Wood which is what a #4 or #5 his stamina is going to be some lower but I wouldn't say his stamina would be down in the 60's necessarily. There are going to be some #2,#3,#4,& #5 SP's stamina that will be higher than the #1 SP(ace) is what I'm trying to get across.

You're right... Just trying to figure out how to implement this for my Franchise... This all sounds awesome!

Sent from my LG G2 using Tapatalk

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

You can use innings pitched per start. Those guys who pitch 200+ innings will get 80-85. You can start a scale that looks like this:
220+=stamina 85
215-219=84
210-214=83
205-209=82
200-204=81
195-199=80

I am not this stringent in my franchise, but its real close. but you get the idea. For the upper IP guys, that I refer to as "horses," this is how I dole out the ratings. My number one horse is Madison Bumgarner. His stamina ratiing is 85. Someone like a healthy Adam Wainwright would also get this honor. And Kershaw.Or vintage Verlander. You will see guys with 85 will get you a CG with pitch counts of 120-130 max, with most falling between 105-115. Then, there are those like Sale, Samardzija, Arrieta and Price. They would be 82-84. Then you have Lester, Harvey, deGrom and Greinke; 80-83. You can go by strict innings per start, like above, or use opinions of your own or scouting reports. Also, a teams use can also determine how the stamina ratings work for the starters. For example, in my franchise, the Kansas City Royals number one starter, Edinson Volquez, has a stamina rating of 74. That's a team that depends heavily on its bullpen, as the rest of the rotation slides down to Chris Young with 67, the 5th starter. I hope this helps.

Perfect, thanks bro!

Sent from my LG G2 using Tapatalk

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

You can use innings pitched per start. Those guys who pitch 200+ innings will get 80-85. You can start a scale that looks like this:
220+=stamina 85
215-219=84
210-214=83
205-209=82
200-204=81
195-199=80

I am not this stringent in my franchise, but its real close. but you get the idea. For the upper IP guys, that I refer to as "horses," this is how I dole out the ratings. My number one horse is Madison Bumgarner. His stamina ratiing is 85. Someone like a healthy Adam Wainwright would also get this honor. And Kershaw.Or vintage Verlander. You will see guys with 85 will get you a CG with pitch counts of 120-130 max, with most falling between 105-115. Then, there are those like Sale, Samardzija, Arrieta and Price. They would be 82-84. Then you have Lester, Harvey, deGrom and Greinke; 80-83. You can go by strict innings per start, like above, or use opinions of your own or scouting reports. Also, a teams use can also determine how the stamina ratings work for the starters. For example, in my franchise, the Kansas City Royals number one starter, Edinson Volquez, has a stamina rating of 74. That's a team that depends heavily on its bullpen, as the rest of the rotation slides down to Chris Young with 67, the 5th starter. I hope this helps.

I think I prefer to go this route, seems a lot easier to implement...

With that said could you possibly give me the rest of the break down on SP's under 195 IP? Just like you have above.

[oldtimey]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

I think I prefer to go this route, seems a lot easier to implement...

With that said could you possibly give me the rest of the break down on SP's under 195 IP? Just like you have above.

I determine my scale mostly on projections and opinion, but I will try to explain my thinking on how I rated my franchise and overlay it onto innings per start as the factor. In my experiments, i have used both IP/GS and pitches/GS in simming. IP/GS seemed to emphasize the higher tier pitchers more, as they threw more CG than the lower tier stamina starters, so they're value was more evident. So here goes!

85-80 Stamina=your top 5 in IP/GS
79-70 Stamina=#6-15 in IP/GS
Pitcher with these stamina ratings should occupy the 1-3 starter slots on the MLB roster.

69-65 Stamina=#16 and lower in IP/GS.
These are your 4th and 5th starters.

65-60 Stamina=rookies, long men/part-time starters, players returning from arm problems, etc. Keeping someone with this rating in your long relief spot as much as possible will help your bullpen out immensely.

In my franchise last year, the Dodgers won my World Series. They were blessed with a rotation that had 5 starters whose stamina was 70 or better (Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, Anderson and McCarthy). They also had rookie Bolsinger as the long man. They all stayed healthy and each starter wound up pitching more than 200 IP. This covered up a very mediocre bullpen, except for Jansen, the closer. No other team in my franchise would come close to the year these guys had as a group.. I still remember how much I anguished over which guys after the Big Two (Kershaw and Grienke) would be in the postseason 4-man rotation (Ryu, Anderson or McCarthy). When I finally settled on Ryu and McCarthy, McCarthy is hurt in his first postseason start. No problem. Anderson steps right in.

Well, I hope this helps. The only issue that occurs is when one of the top starters is pitching a shutout with a big lead. The CPU gets hell-bent on letting them go all the way for a CG as the pitch count mounts past 120 to 130 and higher, even to 150 piches. What usually happens is that the gassed starter gets slapped around in the 9th, loses his shutout and the cpu finally removes him or he barely hangs on for a CG. When I see this I will intervene by getting the bullpen busy, make a mound visit to help get the bullpen warm, then remove the starter ASAP. Enjoy!

[The Kid 24]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

How does this look?

220+=stamina 85
215-219=84
210-214=83
205-209=82
200-204=81
195-199=80
194-190=79
189-185=78
184-180=77
179-175=76
174-170=75
169-165=74
164-160=73
159-155=72
154-150=71
149-145=70
144-140=69
139-135=68
134-130=67
129-125=66
124-120=65
119-115=64
114-110=63
109-105=62
104-100=61
99-95=60

[JPCaveman13]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

Just more of a curious question:

How would you figure into the strict enforcement of pitches/innings by stamina the chance that a pitcher might get yanked even though they are having success (ie: no-hitter/perfect through the sixth or seventh)??

An example of this would be something like Edwin Jackson's no-hitter a few years back. He has a stamina on your chart falling anywhere from 70-80 which puts him at 95-110 pitch per outing mark. This would put him coming out around the 4.2-5.2 mark but he finished out the game throwing ~150 pitches. He made his next start on schedule as well.

Second question, less curious but more observation:

Have you tested this out in the post-season?? How would this play out for a pitcher who goes on games one and four or two and five, provided they have a full start (100-110 pitches over 6-7)??

[skinscapswiz]

Re: Setting pitch count limits using pitcher stamina rating

This all seems like great stuff! My only question is what real stats do you guys use for reference? The simple answer would be 2015 Innings Pitched, however wouldn’t that be skewed if a pitcher even missed one start due to injury? I guess wouldn’t that make innings/start more useable?

What about just scaling back everyone's rating based off their current ratings? For instance anyone that's 95+ make them 85, anyone 94, make them 84... essentially lowering everyone's stamina by 10? Sorry if that sounds out of whack lol. Just having a hard time pin pointing a source before starting a franchise