MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Just for future reference I wouldn't use ZiPS for anything, lol.

I don't know, ZiPS and Steamer tend to exhibit nearly the same predictive value. You can cross check one with the other and it's striking how similar they can be.

The reason I switched from ZiPS to Steamer about a year ago is because Dan Szymborski's developed something of a grating personality.

[AC]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

I don't know, ZiPS and Steamer tend to exhibit nearly the same predictive value. You can cross check one with the other and it's striking how similar they can be.

The reason I switched from ZiPS to Steamer about a year ago is because Dan Szymborski's developed something of a grating personality.

On the aggregate yes but it isn't particularly hard to get a good aggregate result (I personally spent ~10 minutes bull****ting projections for an ISU and didn't get too far off ZiPS). The methodology is flawed. They don't regress peripherals properly in any way shape or form. It ends in guys with ridiculous true talent projections like 2 HR/9 (Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd) or BABIP (Odubel off the top of my head).

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

On the aggregate yes but it isn't particularly hard to get a good aggregate result (I personally spent ~10 minutes bull****ting projections for an ISU and didn't get too far off ZiPS). The methodology is flawed. They don't regress peripherals properly in any way shape or form. It ends in guys with ridiculous true talent projections like 2 HR/9 (Scott Baker, Gavin Floyd) or BABIP (Odubel off the top of my head).

Speaking of really wonky stuff like regression, we didn't even mention this about our roster I don't think, but I believe this roster is really the only one that regresses splits per The Book (that includes Sony as people who don't really do formal split regression). A lot of other re-rated rosters that I've seen read into ridiculously low numbers of ABs as if they hold absolute truth. I thought you could appreciate that.

[Willard76]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Willard can you create blue jays prospect jeremy gabryszwski in AA he having solid season.Willard did you create blue jays prospect shane dawson if not can you upload your version of him.

Dawson is in the set I believe and Gabryswski probably won't happen until I get a creation urge again.

[AC]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Speaking of really wonky stuff like regression, we didn't even mention this about our roster I don't think, but I believe this roster is really the only one that regresses splits per The Book (that includes Sony as people who don't really do formal split regression). A lot of other re-rated rosters that I've seen read into ridiculously low numbers of ABs as if they hold absolute truth. I thought you could appreciate that.

Lol finally. People are always shocked

"2000 plate appearances?????????"

[cwhalx23]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Dawson is in the set I believe and Gabryswski probably won't happen until I get a creation urge again.

No i was asking if you created him blue jays prospect shane dawson that in the hybrid roster.

[Willard76]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

No i was asking if you created him blue jays prospect shane dawson that in the hybrid roster.

Yes Dawson is mine

[Garrett59]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Willard can you create blue jays prospect jeremy gabryszwski in AA he having solid season.Willard did you create blue jays prospect shane dawson if not can you upload your version of him.

Jays look solid.

[sky63]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

hello, apologies is this already asked and answered, i was looking and see some guys I'm think they suppose to be the utility guys for some teams and now they only show few second positions, for example brock holt, are this is a mistake that mess up the second positions or this was modified the way they are now, just asking because i don't have my utility guy anymore.....

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

hello, apologies is this already asked and answered, i was looking and see some guys I'm think they suppose to be the utility guys for some teams and now they only show few second positions, for example brock holt, are this is a mistake that mess up the second positions or this was modified the way they are now, just asking because i don't have my utility guy anymore.....

Yes, this has been addressed 4 or 5 times already. Some utility players have had their eligibilities reduced a bit. My advice is give Holt LF/INF and then set his primary to RF if you ever want to give Mookie a day off and play him there.

[DSzymborski]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

I don't know, ZiPS and Steamer tend to exhibit nearly the same predictive value. You can cross check one with the other and it's striking how similar they can be.

The reason I switched from ZiPS to Steamer about a year ago is because Dan Szymborski's developed something of a grating personality.

I developed that more than 30 years ago!

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

LOL. Developed the personality or the projection systems? Sorry, I should just keep my mouth shut from now on, ha.

On a serious note, thanks for all you do with projections. They've been a big part of making this game play like it should and the modding community has used them (free of charge I might add) for many years in some form or fashion. Now if you could just upload your projections w/splits earlier in the year or have FanGraphs add them to your main page there...........

[No.27]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

WTNY looks like you managed to prod Dan out of a 3 year posting hibernation. Good to see him back! His work and yours have taken this game to another level in the past couple of years. It's much appreciated.

[DSzymborski]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

LOL. Developed the personality or the projection systems? Sorry, I should just keep my mouth shut from now on, ha.

On a serious note, thanks for all you do with projections. They've been a big part of making this game play like it should and the modding community has used them (free of charge I might add) for many years in some form or fashion. Now if you could just upload your projections w/splits earlier in the year or have FanGraphs add them to your main page there...........

Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job!

Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference.

I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead.

As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out.

Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection.

One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job!

Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference.

I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead.

As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out.

Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection.

One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.

That makes sense. Some of this "stickiness" could be a combination of clutch/sequencing/streakiness/conditioning/coaching/psychological on the part of the player (something that might fluctuate on a longer scale than week-to-week or month-to-month). Some of these nether-areas have yet to be adequately flushed out and quantified beyond yes/no arguments as to if they can be found in the stats or not.

Care to share any thoughts on Francisco Lindor while you're around? Seems to be a hot topic in this thread. Some already punching his ticket to Cooperstown (think Derek Jeter w/Gold Glove) and others thinking he's got a BABIP bubble going for him that will burst at some point.