MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

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  • chilidogbeefcake
    Pro
    • Jan 2009
    • 526

    #256
    Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

    Does this roster work well long term with franchise?

    Since generated draft players have Sony ratings, does it mesh well or should I go osfm 3.5 for long term chise

    Comment

    • AC
      Win the East
      • Sep 2010
      • 14951

      #257
      Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

      Originally posted by DSzymborski
      Personality! lol. No worries, I'm a big boy and can handle criticism. I also recognize that I'm an obnoxious, thoroughly ridiculous individual and there are always people that will find me grating. Comes with the job!

      Should probably address one thing in the thread. You'll sometimes see a weird split, especially in very small statistics because for FanGraphs presentation, I *round* the numbers. So if you have a say, a pitcher that ZiPS is projected to a very few number of innings, you'll sometimes get a wacky presented rate because 0.6 projected HR in, like 20 inning but rounded to 1 is a tremendous difference.

      I tried early on to show the "true" rates, but then people got mad when they calculated rates from the presented raw rounded stats and they didn't match the real ones and freaked out about that. Explaining to people how a pitcher projected for 4 ER in 9 IP could have a projected ERA of 3.65 or something got people very mad, so I do it this way instead.

      As for Odubel Herrera, ZiPS uses PBP data in both majors and minors and I was also surprised by his BABIP projection before the season. But really, given that it projected him to have a very high BABIP anyway, I'm not upset with how the projection has turned out.

      Sometimes when ZiPS surprises me, I'm the one that ends up wrong. I spent half the preseason saying that Clevenger would crush his ZiPS and while it's very early, ZiPS is certainly beating me at that projection.

      One thing that also should be noted is that in-season regression appears to be less than season-to-season regression as the data strongly support a kind of "stickiness" to some things that are harder to maintain over, for example, three or four seasons.
      This is incredible, having you in this thread. Thanks for taking questions. I have no idea about your personality (I assume you have Twitter which I only use for news). Myself and some people who do some work in baseball statistics have been wondering a lot about some of these things.

      For one, we were glancing at Gavin Floyd's projection. Is the in season stickiness or rounding error at fault for his 1.89 HR/9 projection? I think it's a reasonable assumption that that isn't true talent. I remember a similar situation with Scott Baker a few years ago.

      The stickiness is definitely something I've personally noticed. I think it has some merit to it, but have you looked into that further? It can notice some things Steamer may be too stubborn too but at the same time, Prince Fielder's now at a 95 wRC+ ZiPS projection. His BABIP projection is .020 off of Steamer's and the ISO is much lower which I assume comes from HR/FB (or maybe hitting fewer FB, I dunno). Do you think this stickiness can be a bit of an overreaction sometimes? Is this something you're looking into?

      I don't think the Odubel thing is too big an issue, I wouldn't project anyone for a true talent .360 BABIP but he's very fast and has posted a large sample of high BABIP so it's reasonable that it spat that out.

      I can appreciate doing things a certain way to avoid backlash, as someone who has done lots of projects on this site myself. And I'm sure the people who made this thread do as well. However, I do find Steamer's 1 PA/IP projections very helpful. I wonder if there's a compromise of sorts because I think that's important, personally.

      As a fellow thoroughly obnoxious and ridiculous individual I look forward to hearing back.
      Last edited by AC; 05-30-2016, 10:34 PM.
      "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

      Comment

      • DSzymborski
        Rookie
        • Apr 2010
        • 26

        #258
        Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

        Originally posted by AC
        This is incredible, having you in this thread. Thanks for taking questions. I have no idea about your personality (I assume you have Twitter which I only use for news). Myself and some people who do some work in baseball statistics have been wondering a lot about some of these things.

        For one, we were glancing at Gavin Floyd's projection. Is the in season stickiness or rounding error at fault for his 1.89 HR/9 projection? I think it's a reasonable assumption that that isn't true talent. I remember a similar situation with Scott Baker a few years ago.

        The stickiness is definitely something I've personally noticed. I think it has some merit to it, but have you looked into that further? It can notice some things Steamer may be too stubborn too but at the same time, Prince Fielder's now at a 95 wRC+ ZiPS projection. His BABIP projection is .020 off of Steamer's and the ISO is much lower which I assume comes from HR/FB (or maybe hitting fewer FB, I dunno). Do you think this stickiness can be a bit of an overreaction sometimes? Is this something you're looking into?

        I don't think the Odubel thing is too big an issue, I wouldn't project anyone for a true talent .360 BABIP but he's very fast and has posted a large sample of high BABIP so it's reasonable that it spat that out.

        I can appreciate doing things a certain way to avoid backlash, as someone who has done lots of projects on this site myself. And I'm sure the people who made this thread do as well. However, I do find Steamer's 1 PA/IP projections very helpful. I wonder if there's a compromise of sorts because I think that's important, personally.

        As a fellow thoroughly obnoxious and ridiculous individual I look forward to hearing back.
        A few things going on with Floyd here. First, ZiPS knows Floyd's general recent injury history and pitchers that have missed that much time tend to have a hard go of it in the short term. Second, ZiPS still has most of his innings as a starter, and that causes a few extra HR. Third, the in-season model is much simpler than season to season, if I project Floyd next year in Toronto, it goes down to about 1.6.

        I think projections are going to have trouble with guys like Floyd with such a spotty recent history. ZiPS HR/9 was certainly too high, but I think Steamer's was too low coming into the season too.
        Dan Szymborski
        [email protected]
        ESPN, Twitter

        Comment

        • AC
          Win the East
          • Sep 2010
          • 14951

          #259
          Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

          Originally posted by DSzymborski
          A few things going on with Floyd here. First, ZiPS knows Floyd's general recent injury history and pitchers that have missed that much time tend to have a hard go of it in the short term. Second, ZiPS still has most of his innings as a starter, and that causes a few extra HR. Third, the in-season model is much simpler than season to season, if I project Floyd next year in Toronto, it goes down to about 1.6.

          I think projections are going to have trouble with guys like Floyd with such a spotty recent history. ZiPS HR/9 was certainly too high, but I think Steamer's was too low coming into the season too.
          Completely understand having a more simple in-season model, but isn't 1.6 HR/9 still pretty high for a guy who gets 50%+ grounders with a lot of K's? Is that maybe some of the stickiness from a 16.7% HR/FB? I know Floyd's been a bit above average in terms of HR/FB over his career but 16.7% is pretty abnormal in his small sample so far.

          Agreed that Steamer is probably too low. And yeah, Steamer's percentage of his projected games as starts is way lower than ZiPS (both 4 but Steamer has him pitching 68 versus 13). Just to be clear, I'm not trying to harp on you about one particular projection, I know the machine spits out different things. I'm just using Floyd as an example/symbol as I ask how the machine works, he's just a guy I noticed had projections that were a bit out there.
          "Twelve at-bats is a pretty decent sample size." - Eric Byrnes

          Comment

          • dvazquez190
            Rookie
            • Sep 2008
            • 203

            #260
            Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

            I really hate to be "that guy". I've looked through both this thread and the original thread you guys had during the creating process. I know you guys mentioned sliders that are specific to this roster and that you guys posted individual sliders that should be changed during sim (Stamina of both starters and relievers).

            What I haven't seen (and thus my question) is what do you guys use as a full roster set. I apologize if this has been posted/answered and I just somehow missed it. So do you guys have a specific roster set that is being used or has been created for this roster? If you do i'd love to know just what it is. I've been looking for the right roster set to match with this roster to kick off my franchise.

            Thanks

            Comment

            • WaitTilNextYear
              Go Cubs Go
              • Mar 2013
              • 16830

              #261
              Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

              Originally posted by dvazquez190
              I really hate to be "that guy". I've looked through both this thread and the original thread you guys had during the creating process. I know you guys mentioned sliders that are specific to this roster and that you guys posted individual sliders that should be changed during sim (Stamina of both starters and relievers).

              What I haven't seen (and thus my question) is what do you guys use as a full roster set. I apologize if this has been posted/answered and I just somehow missed it. So do you guys have a specific roster set that is being used or has been created for this roster? If you do i'd love to know just what it is. I've been looking for the right roster set to match with this roster to kick off my franchise.

              Thanks
              I think you meant full slider set, otherwise I am confused about having a roster set to go with a roster. You haven't seen a slider set because there isn't one. I've posted as much (maybe 4 times?) that everyone should use whatever sliders they feel comfortable with; we don't have a recommendation on that.
              Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

              Comment

              • dvazquez190
                Rookie
                • Sep 2008
                • 203

                #262
                Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                I think you meant full slider set, otherwise I am confused about having a roster set to go with a roster. You haven't seen a slider set because there isn't one. I've posted as much (maybe 4 times?) that everyone should use whatever sliders they feel comfortable with; we don't have a recommendation on that.
                Ok Thank You. I misunderstood then. I thought you guys were using a specific slider set along with the rosters. Thank you for the reply.

                Comment

                • WaitTilNextYear
                  Go Cubs Go
                  • Mar 2013
                  • 16830

                  #263
                  Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                  Originally posted by dvazquez190
                  Ok Thank You. I misunderstood then. I thought you guys were using a specific slider set along with the rosters. Thank you for the reply.
                  The re-rates are substantial, but they don't cause the game to play so much differently that you'd need customized sliders. Really the idea of re-rates is to get everyone rated properly relative to each other. If player A is better at making contact than player B, then player A should have a higher contact attribute and so on. It's more complex than that, but that's really the point, rather than to make the game into a dead ball or steroid era game.

                  The sim sliders are a different story: SP STAM = 1, RP STAM = 6, Manager hook = 5, Injuries = 8 is what this roster is intended to work best with.
                  Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                  Comment

                  • Viking11
                    Banned
                    • Jan 2015
                    • 150

                    #264
                    Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                    Just one more question about the sliders. I know to use the adjusted sliders for simulated games in franchise but what about RTTS. Is it possible in that mode as well?

                    Comment

                    • WaitTilNextYear
                      Go Cubs Go
                      • Mar 2013
                      • 16830

                      #265
                      Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                      Originally posted by Viking11
                      Just one more question about the sliders. I know to use the adjusted sliders for simulated games in franchise but what about RTTS. Is it possible in that mode as well?
                      I've never played an inning of RTTS so I'm not sure since that mode is a combination of playing and simming.
                      Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                      Comment

                      • Smootie4891
                        Just started!
                        • May 2016
                        • 4

                        #266
                        Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                        Is there a guide to ratings somewhere where i can see how much each rating affeccts a player such as having power and guarentee 40 homers but around a 240 batting average? Im. Trying to find something on this. And with pitchers who walk more and give up hits but not walks and such..

                        Comment

                        • Smootie4891
                          Just started!
                          • May 2016
                          • 4

                          #267
                          Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                          And how in the heck is vekasquez a 89?!? Didnt know guys with over 100 innings potched with a 4.50 era and 1.40 whip can be rated that high. Maybe mid 70s but a 89?!?!

                          Comment

                          • huskerfan4life
                            #1 conrhusker fan
                            • Jul 2007
                            • 926

                            #268
                            Re: 2016 OSFM HYBRID V1 (official release thread)

                            Originally posted by Willard76
                            How I Use 30 Team Control

                            Many have asked, and for myself being a guy who in the past only like using single team control, it took some adjustment and playing around to find setting for 30 team control I liked.

                            1. Set up 2 Profiles, 1 for your team, 1 for CPU teams

                            2. Profile 1, I set everything up on Manual Control to start the season

                            3. Profile 2 is a mimic of Profile 1 for Spring Training, then I transfer everything but lineups and 40 man to AUTO, (this way you can move players up and down to your roster through spring training and not lose guys on waivers)

                            4. Start your franchise - leave CPU trades turned ON (more about this later)

                            5. Play spring training - no injuries will happen unless you turn on injuries, you can move about 5 players up and down per day, they will use up one of their options but you won't loose them to another team - just make sure you move the player to AAA before taking them off the 40 to make room for your call up

                            6. At the end of spring training make sure you set your proper 40 man roster, then change Profile 2 to Auto for all categories

                            7.Every day during the season, scan through proposed trades and veto any bad trades the CPU makes, also sim every game but your teams and then scores will appear on the scoreboards as if they were happening at that time period.

                            That's about it! (I think)
                            hey Willard I've got a question for you, how do you check the proposed trades because I've never played with 30 team control before and I was looking around but I did not see proposed trades anywhere, can you or anyone else please help me out?
                            Madden 18
                            Kansas City Chiefs
                            Yr 1 (0-0) Pre-Season (0-1)

                            Follow Me On Twitch
                            https://www.twitch.tv/bigbadjz

                            Comment

                            • WaitTilNextYear
                              Go Cubs Go
                              • Mar 2013
                              • 16830

                              #269
                              Re: MLB The Show 16 OSFM HYBRID V1 Roster Available Now

                              Originally posted by Smootie4891
                              Is there a guide to ratings somewhere where i can see how much each rating affeccts a player such as having power and guarentee 40 homers but around a 240 batting average? Im. Trying to find something on this. And with pitchers who walk more and give up hits but not walks and such..
                              Originally posted by Smootie4891
                              And how in the heck is vekasquez a 89?!? Didnt know guys with over 100 innings potched with a 4.50 era and 1.40 whip can be rated that high. Maybe mid 70s but a 89?!?!
                              1. No, there is no ratings guide. More than one attribute can affect the same stat (like homers) so it's not so simple.

                              2. The ratings are editable for anything that you disagree with.
                              Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                              Comment

                              • Willard76
                                MVP
                                • Mar 2012
                                • 2841

                                #270
                                Re: 2016 OSFM HYBRID V1 (official release thread)

                                Originally posted by huskerfan4life
                                hey Willard I've got a question for you, how do you check the proposed trades because I've never played with 30 team control before and I was looking around but I did not see proposed trades anywhere, can you or anyone else please help me out?


                                Go to pending transactions and look at trade offers


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                                OSFM BLUE JAYS Creator

                                Soundpack Contributor

                                Associate Creator and Godfather of the OSFM Hybrid Roster

                                follow me on twitter @billybrent

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