What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches?

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  • FreedomFigter
    Rookie
    • Jun 2014
    • 31

    #1

    What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches?

    Hey, as the title lays out I'm wondering what site or stats you guys know of and trust (enough) to give you an idea of the control a pitcher has on his different pitches.

    For movement and velocity we have Brooksbaseball and that awesome PitchFX data. However for control I'm wondering what you guys use. Something as simple as strike% doesn't seem to quite quantify it enough because they might not have great control of it but it might be fast enough or move enough to still have decent strike%.

    I'm trying to go through and edit some of the control stats for some pitchers but have no idea what data to use.

    Anybody have any resources they use?
    Thanks!
  • Caulfield
    Hall Of Fame
    • Apr 2011
    • 10986

    #2
    Re: What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches

    Originally posted by FreedomFigter
    Hey, as the title lays out I'm wondering what site or stats you guys know of and trust (enough) to give you an idea of the control a pitcher has on his different pitches.

    For movement and velocity we have Brooksbaseball and that awesome PitchFX data. However for control I'm wondering what you guys use. Something as simple as strike% doesn't seem to quite quantify it enough because they might not have great control of it but it might be fast enough or move enough to still have decent strike%.

    I'm trying to go through and edit some of the control stats for some pitchers but have no idea what data to use.

    Anybody have any resources they use?
    Thanks!
    SO/W could be used or to a lesser extent, wild pitches.
    OSFM23 - Building Better Baseball - OSFM23

    A Work in Progress

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    • MBMavs20
      Pro
      • Oct 2002
      • 939

      #3
      Re: What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches

      Originally posted by FreedomFigter
      Hey, as the title lays out I'm wondering what site or stats you guys know of and trust (enough) to give you an idea of the control a pitcher has on his different pitches.

      For movement and velocity we have Brooksbaseball and that awesome PitchFX data. However for control I'm wondering what you guys use. Something as simple as strike% doesn't seem to quite quantify it enough because they might not have great control of it but it might be fast enough or move enough to still have decent strike%.

      I'm trying to go through and edit some of the control stats for some pitchers but have no idea what data to use.

      Anybody have any resources they use?
      Thanks!
      The formula I use works very well for me. I used it for my pitch edits.

      Take the percentage of Strikes, divide by the percentage of balls, and multiply by the leader in strike percentage. If you like, you could take it a step further and separate starters and relievers.

      For example: In 2013, Cliff Lee led all starters in strike percentage with 70.8%

      So, he threw 1805 sinkers in 2013. 33% for strikes and 28% for balls. So, 33/28 X 71 = 83.6 for his control rating.

      He threw 675 Cutters in 2013. 30% for strikes and 25% for balls. So, 30/25 X 71 = 85 control rating.

      For relievers, Koji Uehara threw 74% of his pitches for strikes in 2013.

      For example, David Robertson threw 729 Cutters in 2013. 34% for strikes and 33% for balls. So 34/33 X 74 = 76 control rating.

      I think both examples worked out very well. Obviously, some pitchers were starters and relievers so I would go with how many games they started or relieved. Some pitchers only threw a handful of pitches so their rating might be really high or low but just go with what makes you comfortable.

      I hope this helps. I know figuring out control has always been a headache. This is the method I use and I find it works well.
      https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6F...NqUUPnStADmhnA

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      • FreedomFigter
        Rookie
        • Jun 2014
        • 31

        #4
        Re: What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches

        Wow I like that a lot, thanks for the response!

        Do you find that works for really poor command pitchers as well?

        I just tried it out for Francisco Liriano (cuz he led majors in qualified BB/9 with 4.69).

        His sinker: 25 % strike / 42.5 % ball x 70 = 41 control for his sinker

        One of the other sets I'm looking at has his sinker control at 20. I haven't played a ton to know the difference between a 20 and a 40 but do you add any sort of constant or something else for really poor control pitchers to make them worse?

        I've already gone through about half just winging it for control grades but your idea makes me wonder about double checking some =D

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        • MBMavs20
          Pro
          • Oct 2002
          • 939

          #5
          Re: What site/stats can be used to determine a pitchers control of individual pitches

          Originally posted by FreedomFigter
          Wow I like that a lot, thanks for the response!

          Do you find that works for really poor command pitchers as well?

          I just tried it out for Francisco Liriano (cuz he led majors in qualified BB/9 with 4.69).

          His sinker: 25 % strike / 42.5 % ball x 70 = 41 control for his sinker

          One of the other sets I'm looking at has his sinker control at 20. I haven't played a ton to know the difference between a 20 and a 40 but do you add any sort of constant or something else for really poor control pitchers to make them worse?

          I've already gone through about half just winging it for control grades but your idea makes me wonder about double checking some =D
          Actually, I think that 41 control for his Sinker is spot on considering he led the Majors with 4.69 BB/9 innings.

          Using Clayton Kershaw as my benchmark because he led all starters in the Majors with 69.3% of his pitches went for strikes I would get the following for Liriano:

          Sinker: 25% strikes / 42.5% ball (I round up and use 43) X 69 = 41 control
          Slider : 37% strikes / 34% ball X 69 = 75
          Change : 30% strikes / 38% ball X 69 = 54
          4 Seam : 23% strikes / 40% ball X 69 = 40

          I think those control ratings come out nicely. I believe the control ratings only really makes a difference when being played by a human player. When the CPU plays itself I think it relies more on the BB/9 rating. Can anyone confirm this?

          I usually will go down to a 20 control rating for pitchers who have terrible control with a certain pitch. With Liriano, It would be tough to give him a 20 control with his Sinker because it's his number 1 pitch and it would be tough to play with him and throw strikes.
          https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6F...NqUUPnStADmhnA

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