The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

How does having so many players with a 99 OVR Potential effect in game trades? I assume with a potential that high, teams will be very reluctant to part with a guy like Ahmed. Also, does potential have a effect on contract demands? In testing, how many of these guys actually reach their potential of 99? Also, how do you guys determine what to rate a veteran players potential as? For example, why does Brian McCann have 98 potential, when there is no hope of him ever having that kind of potential again at this stage in his career, versus a guy like Matt Kemp with a 79 potential, but who at point did have kind of ability as well. Don't take these comments as complaints or anything of the sort, I'm just curious about the process. Appreciate you guys work.

Good questions

Potential is only factored in, in terms of value, for prospects, typically players 25 and under.

So, for a player like Ahmed, his value in trades and contracts is almost strictly based on his current ability (OVR).

Veteran players have higher potentials to counter the heavy regression that occurs for players 30 and older, like jeff said above

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Do you have more insight on how this is calculated? On the surface that seems very high for a 29 yr old, only defense SS.


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Ahmed is a fast, gold-glove calibar shortstop. He had a breakout 2018 season and he is entering his age 29 season, which, for hitters, is often a prime year. The game values (maybe even overvalues) speed and defense for SSs, so even though he isn't a very good hitter, he is still an 83 (roughly 80-86 range in franchise, depending on morale) OVR.

The potential curve is as follows (Potential = OVR + modifier):

Age Hitters Pitchers
20 20 15
21 15 15
22 15 15
23 10 15
24 10 20
25 10 10
26 10 10
27 10 10
28 10 10
29 20 (prime year) 10
30 5 15
31 5 15
32 5 20 (prime year)
33 5 10
34 5 10
35 20 20
36 20 20
37 20 20
38 20 20
39 20 20
40 20 20

Some reading that drove the numbers:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/

So, back to Ahmed:
Ahmed is set up for a peak season. He may peak this year. He may not. He may regress. A 99 potential (which can decrease in game), allows him to either peak or have a steady major league career into his 30s as a starter or bench option, depending on performance.

[knich1]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Cycloniac...Tanaka is missing his curve ball. Was it oversight or is there specific reason?

Btw...these are playing very well with Armor’s HOF sliders.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Cycloniac...Tanaka is missing his curve ball. Was it oversight or is there specific reason?

Btw...these are playing very well with Armor’s HOF sliders.

He doesn't use it enough for it to be included (less than 5 percent of the time this season).

For a pitch to be included, it must be used roughly 8 percent of the time.

Since pitch frequency--beyond the basic pitch 1, pitch 2, pitch 3 etc--can't be editted, this was done to add more variety between pitchers who primarily use 3, 4 and 5 pitches.

[knich]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

He doesn't use it enough for it to be included (less than 5 percent of the time this season).

For a pitch to be included, it must be used roughly 8 percent of the time.

Since pitch frequency--beyond the basic pitch 1, pitch 2, pitch 3 etc--can't be editted, this was done to add more variety between pitchers who primarily use 3, 4 and 5 pitches.

Got it. Thanks.

[skow05]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Ahmed is a fast, gold-glove calibar shortstop. He had a breakout 2018 season and he is entering his age 29 season, which, for hitters, is often a prime year. The game values (maybe even overvalues) speed and defense for SSs, so even though he isn't a very good hitter, he is still an 83 (roughly 80-86 range in franchise, depending on morale) OVR.



The potential curve is as follows (Potential = OVR + modifier):



AgeHittersPitchers

202015

211515

221515

231015

241020

251010

261010

271010

281010

2920 (prime year)10

30515

31515

32520 (prime year)

33510

34510

352020

362020

372020

382020

392020

402020



Some reading that drove the numbers:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/

So, back to Ahmed:

Ahmed is set up for a peak season. He may peak this year. He may not. He may regress. A 99 potential (which can decrease in game), allows him to either peak or have a steady major league career into his 30s as a starter or bench option, depending on performance.

Thank you for the informative reply. Looking forward to the finished project!


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[lere2001]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Just stopping in to say just how excited I am for these. These sound perfect.

[jmel07]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

He doesn't use it enough for it to be included (less than 5 percent of the time this season).

For a pitch to be included, it must be used roughly 8 percent of the time.

Since pitch frequency--beyond the basic pitch 1, pitch 2, pitch 3 etc--can't be editted, this was done to add more variety between pitchers who primarily use 3, 4 and 5 pitches.

You can kill off the Josh Hader change-up then He's stopped throwing it two years ago.

[tombazzlez]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

What are the differences between the TrueSim Rosters and the CRP rosters by Bushido, given that both will be based on v2 of the OSFM Rosters? to all who help make this game even better

[cripes]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

He doesn't use it enough for it to be included (less than 5 percent of the time this season).

For a pitch to be included, it must be used roughly 8 percent of the time.

Since pitch frequency--beyond the basic pitch 1, pitch 2, pitch 3 etc--can't be editted, this was done to add more variety between pitchers who primarily use 3, 4 and 5 pitches.

It would be awesome if SCEA put in sliders for this similar to how they put in pull/push for hitters. Fastball heavy, fastball/change, breaker heavy etc... Does anyone know if pitchers in the game by default throw pitch 1 the most? Someone like Patrick Corbin comes to mind who throws more sliders than his FB.

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

You can kill off the Josh Hader change-up then He's stopped throwing it two years ago.

I would love to, but MLB The Show still requires a pitcher to have three pitches minimum

There are quite a few relievers who only use two pitches, like Hader

[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

It would be awesome if SCEA put in sliders for this similar to how they put in pull/push for hitters. Fastball heavy, fastball/change, breaker heavy etc... Does anyone know if pitchers in the game by default throw pitch 1 the most? Someone like Patrick Corbin comes to mind who throws more sliders than his FB.

By default, pitch frequency is based on pitch order i.e. pitch 1 is thrown the most, pitch 5 the least

Masahiro Tanaka is an example of a pitcher who throws more sliders than fastballs.

Corbin throws a lot of sliders also, but he prefers starting at-bats with his fastball, the slider is his primary out pitch.

In order to improve the gameplay experience, this year, I changed the way pitches are ordered. Last year, I only used pitch frequency percentage to order pitches. Last year, Corbin's slider would have been pitch 1.

This year, I went a little deeper and looked at what situations led to these pitches being thrown. For pitch 1, I looked at what pitch is primarily used first in the at-bat. For pitch 2, I looked at which pitch was used the most with two strikes. The rest of the pitches were ordered in the old style: based simply on frequency, more ofteh than not.

So now, pitch order should be looked at this way:
Pitch 1: primary pitch
Pitch 2: out pitch/strikeout pitch
Pitches 3, 4, 5: secondary pitches

Some pitchers, like Tanaka, use the slider primarily both to begin at bats and with two strikes. Those types of pitchers will have the slider or breaking ball as their primary pitch. Strikeout pitchers like Corbin used the slider so much because they often found themselves in two-strike counts.

It's all about context

[The Kid 24]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Cycloniac bud, do u get my PM?


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[Cycloniac]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Cycloniac bud, do u get my PM?


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Yes -- I will make sure those players receive ratings updates in the roster

[The Kid 24]

Re: The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 19

Yes -- I will make sure those players receive ratings updates in the roster

Thanks man!

Any chance u can post the 2 Cardinals guys in here? I’m adding ur ratings to my Franchise.


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