tired of seeing so many pitchers having a 4seam and a 2seam fastball...i know some guys do throw both but not half the league..any help would be appreciated
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Good website to find movement on pitchers
Search a pitcher and it shows pitch types, movement, and a lot of other great stats -
Re: Good website to find movement on pitchers
Great site and very useful. Could someone explain how to calculate movement and control from the graphs? I would like to input these edits as I play against teams in my franchise. They make the game even more realistic. Thanks a bunch.
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Re: Good website to find movement on pitchers
Thanks, I always use those, but would like to calculate the edits myself this time. I just don't know how to do them for break and control.
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Re: Good website to find movement on pitchers
There are various schools of thought on how to do this. The TrueSim MLB 19 Franchise Roster will contain full pitch edits.
You can see the pitch edits, along with re-rates for about 1000 players here:
Let's use Chris Sale as an example.
Chris Sale primarily uses 4 pitches: a fastball (40.33%), slider (30.74%), changeup (15.67%) and sinking fastball (13.26%)
Accurate pitch edits for Sale, under the TrueSim Projection System, are:
Pitch 1: Running Fastball
96 MPH
63 Control
69 Break
Pitch 2: Slider
80 MPH
85 Control
65 Break
Pitch 3: Circle Change
87 MPH
82 Control
72 Break
Pitch 4: 2-Seam Fastball
93 MPH
62 Control
39 Break
How did we arrive at these calculations?
First and foremost, Brooks Baseball is the best source for pitch classification. The pitch descriptions, strike percentages and swinging strike (whiff) percentages drive the base calculations.
I always start with the Strike% and Whiff% and use 3 years of pitching data for the calculations (if possible) and pitch order.
Pitch 1:
4SFB
Strike percentage: 27.96
Whiff percentage: 13.32
For control, I use this formula: strike percentage x 1.75 + whiff percentage
We want to reward a pitcher for being able to locate pitches in the zone as well as effectively pitch outside the zone to induce chases.
Therefore, control = 27.96*1.75+13.32=62
For break, the formula I use is: Min(99, whiff percentage x 5)
What makes a hitter swing and miss? To make it as simple as possible: movement.
Therefore, break = min(99, 13.32*5)=67
Since this fastball has so much movement, I've switched it to a running fastball. If break is less than 50, it remains a 4-Seam Fastball.
The calculations of the other pitches use the same base formula, but are adjusted based on what pitch it is:
For the slider, the calculated movement value of 85 is subtracted by 20 to give us 65
For the circle change, the calculated movement value of 91 is changed to 72.
The 2-Seamer is left at 38
Curveballs are left as calculated
As a result, you get both an idea of how much command a pitcher has over each pitch, and you get a good visual depiction of each pitch. Curveballs will almost always have the most break. Sliders typically will break more than fastballs, but they may be harder to pick up. Sale's slider is an anomaly because it moves so much, and he has elite command of this pitch.
TL-DR: There are different ways to calculate movement and control. This is the one I've worked on, tested and tweaked for many, many hours.Comment
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Good website to find movement on pitchers
So what if it was a splitter/forkball, and how do you identify sweeping, knuckle, 12-6 curve, slurve.. etc etc. Same with changeup/circle change/Vulcan... and do they have specific subractions like 20 for sliders at all times, circle change, 19 from what I see above?
Do you just go with them if it says on the main page where they put a brief on the pitchers bio or whatever it is.
I use an pitch edit from someone’s formula, though I find their sliders barely move. It’s usually 10-20. (Based on H and V movement in Brooks Baseball)
Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkLast edited by JaFFiTh; 04-15-2019, 02:17 PM.Comment
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Re: Good website to find movement on pitchers
I don't differentiate between the forkball and splitter, I always go with the splitter
I usually go with the pitchFX description to list a pitch as a sweeping curve, knuckle curve, circle change, vulcan change and 12-6 curve. If a pitch is listed as a curve but is 85 or more MPH, i use a slurve. If the pitch is listed as a sinker and is his primary pitch, i leave it as a sinker and use ground ball percentage instead of whiff percentage in the calculation. If it isn't his primary pitch, I use the 2-seamer and use whiff percentage in the movement calculation as normal.
The modifiers I use are always:
-20 for sliders
-10 for changeups
subtracted from the control ratingComment
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