Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

[Bobolini]

Re: Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

Here are the results from a stat guy and his use of bionomial statistics (old school 1972-92):

First the clutch performers: Ozzie Smith, Dave Collins, Lloyd Moseby, Tony Gwynn, Ruppert Jones, Rafael Ramirez, Alfredo Griffin, Jorge Orta, Rickey Henderson, and Bill Buckner. Now the chokers: Dave Winfield, Rod Carew, Lance Parrish, Jack Clark, Reggie Jackson, Roy Smalley, Tom Herr, Fred Lynn, Carl Yastrzemski, and Julio Franco. (Note that all of these players are good because of selection effects; one has to be a regular for about 7 seasons to pick up 1000 clutch plate appearances.)

What stands out immediately about this list is that the "chokers" are largely power hitters, while the "clutch performers" are largely singles hitters.

Conclusions

Cutch hitting is an important skill in baseball.
The difference between a good and a bad clutch performer is about 28% the difference between a good and a bad hitter, a much larger effect than had previously been thought from sabermetric work. So it is unlikely that any 0.250 hitters turn into 0.400 hitters in clutch situations, but there are 0.285 hitters who turn into 0.300 hitters.
Because of random effects, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to peg a specific player as a clutch performer or choker with a high degree of certainty. (For that matter, it is extremely difficult to ascertain much of anything about a player's batting skills to an accuracy better than 20 points of OBP based on one season's stats.)

That said, power hitters that perform better in the clutch are fairly rare, as are singles hitters that perform worse in the clutch. This can be used to make an educated guess of a player's clutch tendencies.

I don't pretend to understand exactly what makes one player a clutch hitter and another a choker. The correlation with slugging average probably gives a good clue, but half the "skill" seems to be uncorrelated with any obvious batting stats. However, it does appear that clutch hitting exists and that its importance has been generally underestimated.

[metal134]

Re: Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

I've read a lot of stuff by guys like Rob Neyer and Bill James. I don't totally discount everything that about sabermetrics. But I gotta say, I disagree on this one and I would like to know where they get there statstics on it. You see it ALL the time in baseball, not just what you remember about big hits in big games, but they are always throwing out situational stats, and there is often a significant difference. I will be watching Indians games and they will always throw out something like, "the Indians are batting .250 as a team, but only .180 with runners in scoring position and less than 2 out" (this especially has stuck out to me the last 2 years when the Indians struggled early in the year). They'll say something like, "Victor Martinez is batting .283 overall, but .325 with runners in scoring position". Those aren't the actuall numbers by the way, just an exampe. There may only be a 3 or 4 percent difference, but don't tell me that isn't signifigant because when you look at team batting average, it's only about 4 or 5 percent that seperates the best offense from the worst offense.

[stealyerface]

Re: Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

The tough thing about baseball is that in order to be a "clutch" hitter, a pitcher must then be placed in the "choker" catagory.

Jeter is on first, A-Rod at the dish, two outs, Yankees down by one, bottom of the 9th. Foulke is on the hill. If A-Rod crushes a ball to win the game, he came through in the clutch. If you are a Yankee fan. If you are a RedSox fan, then Foulke choked, and gave up the game winner.

Conversely, if Foulke strikes out A-Rod on three nasty change ups, he is nails, and a "Clutch" pitcher.... While A-Rod once again fails to get the big hit.

See the trouble here?

SYF

[baa7]

Re: Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

The tough thing about baseball is that in order to be a "clutch" hitter, a pitcher must then be placed in the "choker" catagory.

...which is why FPS Baseball also had clutch ratings for pitchers.

[NoSkillz50]

Re: Clutch Rating: So Incredibly Unrealistic

Robert Horry has to be one of the great clutch playoff perfomers in the nba who never does a thing in the regular season. There are players that hit well in big game situations that are not big hitters numbers wise in the regular season.

There are bound to be a few average players that play above average in a few situations, it happens, nobody is going to hit for their career average in every AB for ever week, for every month, even for every year. A few abberations isn't going to prove that clutch exists, nobody had given any reasonable evidence. They just want to believe in it, most people unfortunately do, so they really have no problem proving it. I try to discout statements like this 3 times, but people keep posting the same arguments without disproving me...