The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

[swaldo]

Thus far I've played about 50 games and have been tracking my stats over the last 35. The reason being is because I wanted to figure out the probability of winning this thing.

The stat I'm tracking is total men who reach base (including errors, walks etc) divided by total plate appearances. This gives me an on base % although it's calculated different than the one MLB uses.

Currently, my on base percentage allowed is .376

To calculate the probability of 27 consecutive outs with my on-base %.....

(1-.376)^27 = 0.000002907476513801

Translated to odds this adds up to 344,000 to 1. Ouch!

And by the way, my best performance so far is pitching 3.0 complete innings before allowing a hit. The odds of getting that far (with my on base %) is 70/1.

If you want to figure your own odds just enter your calculated probability into the "Implied Probability" box at the website below...

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/

I'd like to hear how others are doing so I can compare to my performance.

[jeffy777]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

Even without figuring it up, I can already say you got me beat.

I don't play on default All Star though (I use custom sliders with the AI power up to 100, so All Star is probably easier).

[Schreck]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

There have been what, 17 or 18 perfect games in well over a 100 years of major league baseball. The fact that it is incredibly hard to do in this game is great, I'd be pissed if I was throwing shut outs every game. If you check 2k's facebook page, tons of people are whining about how hard it is, as though it should be easy to win a million bucks. Anyway, not talking bad about you, your stats look about right, good work. Just find it funny how dumb so many people are thinking they had an easy shot at a million just by playing a baseball game.

[DJ]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

It is really tough playing on default All-Star. The CPU seems to manage several weak hits that just fall over the infielders' head.

The closest I've come so far is an 8-hit (10K's, no walks) shutout with Ubaldo Jimenez on Opening Day against the D-Backs.

[Sabo's corked Bat]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

0% chance, since its rigged.

[swaldo]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

I dont think it's rigged, they want someone to win it because of all the publicity it generates (if nobody wins they'll lose sales next year.) Unless you're claiming they use an actor or something, but I can't imagine a major corporation would risk that. A million bucks isn't really a big deal with big companies so why risk destroying your reputation with customers?

That's a misconception about Vegas casinos. People think they dont want you to win, but they really do. They want slot machines making all kind of noise and stuff because it generates excitement. Who is going to gamble if you see everyone losing? And they have tricks such as putting the better paying machines next to buffet lines and entrances. For them it's about the grind, the overall take. They know they are going to win overall so they dont sweat it when someone wins a jackpot.

Anyway, last years winner said he had alot of luck. And from what I understand defense was alot easier in 2K10 and you could pinpoint pitches easily. This year you cant and bad defenders are screwing up my program, so I wouldn't be surprised if nobody has won it yet.

[Sabo's corked Bat]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

I dont think it's rigged, they want someone to win it because of all the publicity it generates (if nobody wins they'll lose sales next year.) Unless you're claiming they use an actor or something, but I can't imagine a major corporation would risk that. A million bucks isn't really a big deal with big companies so why risk destroying your reputation with customers?

That's a misconception about Vegas casinos. People think they dont want you to win, but they really do. They want slot machines making all kind of noise and stuff because it generates excitement. Who is going to gamble if you see everyone losing? And they have tricks such as putting the better paying machines next to buffet lines and entrances. For them it's about the grind, the overall take. They know they are going to win overall so they dont sweat it when someone wins a jackpot.

Anyway, last years winner said he had alot of luck. And from what I understand defense was alot easier in 2K10 and you could pinpoint pitches easily. This year you cant and bad defenders are screwing up my program, so I wouldn't be surprised if nobody has won it yet.

Last years was rigged, why wouldnt this years?

[swaldo]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

Last years was rigged, why wouldnt this years?

And your proof is?

[Sabo's corked Bat]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

And your proof is?

Not one person could activate the contest when this guy supposedly won, then they dont announce a winner and keep advertising that you could win the contest. That's false advertisement. Then, when they did announce the "winner", they wouldnt even post his video, or clips of it. Why not? Because there was no video. When everyone was screaming "rigged" and all they had to do was show part, or the whole of this guys video, they wouldnt. They could of even faked a video to show us, but they wouldnt even do that. Even if it was legit, they did absolutely nothing to convey any confidence that it wasn't rigged.

[swaldo]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

Not one person could activate the contest when this guy supposedly won, then they dont announce a winner and keep advertising that you could win the contest. That's false advertisement. Then, when they did announce the "winner", they wouldnt even post his video, or clips of it. Why not? Because there was no video. When everyone was screaming "rigged" and all they had to do was show part, or the whole of this guys video, they wouldnt. They could of even faked a video to show us, but they wouldnt even do that. Even if it was legit, they did absolutely nothing to convey any confidence that it wasn't rigged.

I agree it would be nice if they posted the video for all to see. However, they probably wanted to avoid having a million wannabee attorneys (who also pitched perfectos) scrutinizing every minute detail. They're not going to open themselves up to liability like that. And like you said, even if they did post the video people would accuse them of rigging it anyway.

They did have technical issues and servers were up & down (probably due to the flood of people trying to enter) but you cant say nobody had a chance on the first day. Same thing happened this year...as soon as the contest started I got in a good 10 games. Then I took a break and several people in here were screaming they couldn't play.

Last year they also had issues with starting pitchers. Same this year - the Giants didn't even play on Monday but people were pitching with Lincecum against the Dodgers. When I clicked on that game I got Cain.

In regards to not announcing the winner it states in the rules they dont start judging until 2 weeks after the first winning entry. Once everything is verified it takes another 2 weeks to announce the winner. Translated that means they stall as much as they can to sell more copies. It may be "wrong" but they are giving me an opportunity to win a million bucks so I'll let them slide on that.

My only concern regarding the game being rigged is if a 2K employee informs a freind about exploits and agrees to split the money or something. But heck exploits sure are hidden well if they exist. Even if you knew exactly where to pitch a guy (to get him out) control is challenging this year.

[Sabo's corked Bat]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

I agree it would be nice if they posted the video for all to see. However, they probably wanted to avoid having a million wannabee attorneys (who also pitched perfectos) scrutinizing every minute detail. They're not going to open themselves up to liability like that. And like you said, even if they did post the video people would accuse them of rigging it anyway.

They did have technical issues and servers were up & down (probably due to the flood of people trying to enter) but you cant say nobody had a chance on the first day. Same thing happened this year...as soon as the contest started I got in a good 10 games. Then I took a break and several people in here were screaming they couldn't play.

Last year they also had issues with starting pitchers. Same this year - the Giants didn't even play on Monday but people were pitching with Lincecum against the Dodgers. When I clicked on that game I got Cain.

In regards to not announcing the winner it states in the rules they dont start judging until 2 weeks after the first winning entry. Once everything is verified it takes another 2 weeks to announce the winner. Translated that means they stall as much as they can to sell more copies. It may be "wrong" but they are giving me an opportunity to win a million bucks so I'll let them slide on that.

My only concern regarding the game being rigged is if a 2K employee informs a freind about exploits and agrees to split the money or something. But heck exploits sure are hidden well if they exist. Even if you knew exactly where to pitch a guy (to get him out) control is challenging this year.

Not one person on any chat room, forum, or message board could access it the first day. Not one person i talked to, whether it was a fried or an employ at a game store (I know a bunch) could get it to work on day one. The fact is it wasn't working when this guy supposedly won. Like I said, if somehow it wasn't rigged, they did nothing to convey any confidence.

[swaldo]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

Not one person on any chat room, forum, or message board could access it the first day. Not one person i talked to, whether it was a fried or an employ at a game store (I know a bunch) could get it to work on day one. The fact is it wasn't working when this guy supposedly won. Like I said, if somehow it wasn't rigged, they did nothing to convey any confidence.

I talked to some people who said sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. I dont know because I didn't enter last year. I'll admit I'd be flaming hot if I were one of the people who couldn't get in and threw a perfect game on day 2.

And it was kind of lame to have a big contest like that with whacked servers, they just set themselves up for accusations.

[broncos10]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

my best so far is 5.2 innings of perfect using anibal sanchez, who's ranked either 81 or 83, can't remember. i use the legend sliders that are posted in the sliders thread. definitely my best, but getting to that last out in the 6th meant giving up back to back singles and then a 3 run HR so the shutout was even gone very quick.

[bhl]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

I got through 4 with Carpender today against the Pirates. That's the best I will probably be able to do.

[fugazi]

Re: The Probabilities & Odds of winning the Million

it's the only reason I want this game...

I would like to think it isn't rigged.