Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

Show me a 40 homer season before we start giving him a 97 power rating.

IF they have based the power numbers on last years performance, than the Power rating vs. LHP of Cruz is not wrong. Nelson Cruz probably had the best HR/AB ratio of the regular players last year vs. LHP.

Look at Nelson Cruz last year vs. LHP:
100 AB, 10 HR. This is upper class! 1 HR per 10 AB vs. LHP!

Jose Bautista vs. LHP:
119 AB, 11 HR. 1 HR per 11 AB vs. LHP!

Curtis Granderson vs. LHP:
191 AB, 16 HR. 1 HR per 12 AB vs. LHP!

Look: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=9,d
There is no other player that has such a ratio.

What IS BS then is that obviously his power rating vs. RHP is NOT based on last years performance.
375 AB, 19 HR, 1 HR per 20 AB vs. RHP and they gave him a 94 power rating!
Comparing this to Fielder (13 HR/AB vs. RHP) or Bautista (12/AB vs. RHP) which both have a 97 power rating vs. RHP this number is too high.
Another example: Adam Jones had a 20 HR/AB ratio vs. RHP last year which obviously is in Cruz' range, but they only gave Jones a 75 power rating.

Why? Because Cruz was upper class in 2009 with 13 AB/HR. Yet in 2010 he was not THAT good vs. RHP with a AB/HR ratio of 16.

I mean these were no bad numbers, but here you see a problem in the rating calculation of 2k sports. In some cases they obviously only used LAST YEAR'S numbers while in other cases (even when looking at ONE player) they based the ratings on previous years, not only last year.

I could also bet that in some cases the postseason performance of some players came into count.
Nelson Cruz is a good example again.
In the playoffs last year he hit 8 HR in 70 AB, which is a 9 AB/HR ratio. Very, very high. Quite uncommon in these days.

To put it in a nutshell:
1) Yes some/many (I would say most) ratings are flawed.
2) You can not monitor a consistent approach of 2k by calculating the ratings. In some cases they use 1 year, in other cases they use more years or they use the playoff performance.
3) Yes, flawed ratings influence the gameplay BIG.


I could go through 100s of players and compare their ratings to similar rated players, compare the statistics of the players and show you that the ratings of 2k are not given on a common base.

[Zombeels]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

I think you answered your own question. It's HR to AB ratio AND a substantial number of at bats over multiple seasons. Cruz has one of the best ratios over the last three years and has done it for more 280 ABs in each. Otherwise, you get guys like Heisley (small sample size) or Stubbs (double digits HRs, but a TON of ABs) overrated.

Right, but it shouldn't be that big of a difference, ie- 60s to High 90's.

[Zombeels]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

IF they have based the power numbers on last years performance, than the Power rating vs. LHP of Cruz is not wrong. Nelson Cruz probably had the best HR/AB ratio of the regular players last year vs. LHP.

Look at Nelson Cruz last year vs. LHP:
100 AB, 10 HR. This is upper class! 1 HR per 10 AB vs. LHP!

Jose Bautista vs. LHP:
119 AB, 11 HR. 1 HR per 11 AB vs. LHP!

Curtis Granderson vs. LHP:
191 AB, 16 HR. 1 HR per 12 AB vs. LHP!

Look: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=9,d
There is no other player that has such a ratio.

What IS BS then is that obviously his power rating vs. RHP is NOT based on last years performance.
375 AB, 19 HR, 1 HR per 20 AB vs. RHP and they gave him a 94 power rating!
Comparing this to Fielder (13 HR/AB vs. RHP) or Bautista (12/AB vs. RHP) which both have a 97 power rating vs. RHP this number is too high.
Another example: Adam Jones had a 20 HR/AB ratio vs. RHP last year which obviously is in Cruz' range, but they only gave Jones a 75 power rating.

Why? Because Cruz was upper class in 2009 with 13 AB/HR. Yet in 2010 he was not THAT good vs. RHP with a AB/HR ratio of 16.

I mean these were no bad numbers, but here you see a problem in the rating calculation of 2k sports. In some cases they obviously only used LAST YEAR'S numbers while in other cases (even when looking at ONE player) they based the ratings on previous years, not only last year.

I could also bet that in some cases the postseason performance of some players came into count.
Nelson Cruz is a good example again.
In the playoffs last year he hit 8 HR in 70 AB, which is a 9 AB/HR ratio. Very, very high. Quite uncommon in these days.

To put it in a nutshell:
1) Yes some/many (I would say most) ratings are flawed.
2) You can not monitor a consistent approach of 2k by calculating the ratings. In some cases they use 1 year, in other cases they use more years or they use the playoff performance.
3) Yes, flawed ratings influence the gameplay BIG.


I could go through 100s of players and compare their ratings to similar rated players, compare the statistics of the players and show you that the ratings of 2k are not given on a common base.

Yeah, that explains why Pujols is still a 99 overall, but they make someone like Arroyo or JAA Happ a scrub.

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

Right, but it shouldn't be that big of a difference, ie- 60s to High 90's.

100% agree.

In my opinion it is absolutely ok when they base the ratings not only on one year, because this could have been a career year or a down year, whatever. But when they do base it on multiple years they simply should do this for ALL players.

IF we could see a coherent substructure then I bet we would NOT see so many discrepancies in the rating section.

What also weighs very heavy in the rating section are numbers for pitchers. There are 100s of pitchers that either have way too high or too low contact ratings when compared to pitchers who have similar statistics.
The next point here are disastrously rated PITCHES, where some mediocre players have unbelievable high ratings and other players which are not that bad pitchers have crappy pitch numbers.

I can guarantee you that when you go through each player you will find at least ONE rating which is not "correct".

[VC_Plant]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

The rating are all based on weighted 3-year averages. The pitch ratings are based on Inside Edge data. It's been like that for years. That's why Melky and Heinsley are not rated so hot, while Cruz is. If they haven't played a starter's number of at bats in three years, then they are averaged against other players at their position (to raise or lower them) so that you don't get a Kevin Mass effect from guys like Heinsley. You also shouldn't read too much into the splits. Those are more modifiers of the overall numbers. Otherwise, the small sample size of VS LH numbers causes all kinds of weirdness (like Huff hitting lefties better than righties during the WS run). If Inside Edge gives crappy or overwhelming individual pitch ratings (which doesn't have a "goodness" or "tough to hit" rating, it's just movement and control), then the contact (hits alowed) and power (HRs allowed) ratings typically skew the other direction to balance it out (basically, great stuff but can't put it together vs. average stuff but is smart with it with a run of the mill pitcher).

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

The rating are all based on weighted 3-year averages. The pitch ratings are based on Inside Edge data. It's been like that for years. That's why Melky and Heinsley are not rated so hot, while Cruz is. If they haven't played a starter's number of at bats in three years, then they are averaged against other players at their position (to raise or lower them) so that you don't get a Kevin Mass effect from guys like Heinsley. You also shouldn't read too much into the splits. Those are more modifiers of the overall numbers. Otherwise, the small sample size of VS LH numbers causes all kinds of weirdness (like Huff hitting lefties better than righties during the WS run). If Inside Edge gives crappy or overwhelming individual pitch ratings (which doesn't have a "goodness" or "tough to hit" rating, it's just movement and control), then the contact (hits alowed) and power (HRs allowed) ratings typically skew the other direction to balance it out (basically, great stuff but can't put it together vs. average stuff but is smart with it with a run of the mill pitcher).

I argued with a guy over at the 2k forums about the same topic. I heard that it SHOULD be based of 3 years, but it is obvious that this is not the case for everything. You simply only have to look in Nelson Cruz' stats and see that his power vs RHP is way too high if it is based on 3 years.
And this is not the only player. You find such thing for every player, so don't try to defend 2k where defense is not suitable.

[VC_Plant]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

Again....

You also shouldn't read too much into the splits. Those are more modifiers of the overall numbers. Otherwise, the small sample size of VS LH numbers causes all kinds of weirdness (like Huff hitting lefties better than righties during the WS run).

An overall rating is generated for contact, power, doubles, triples, etc. and then modified by the splits. Like with Cruz his vs RH contact (.272) is way lower than his vs. LH (.296) 2009-2011. His power is actually skewed more toward RH over the last three years however with 63 HRs in 995 vs RH (1-15.8) and 21 HR in 341 vs LH (1-16.2). That's not including playoffs (sorry, don't have handy) which improved those ratios more.

I can see your argument that last year he showed a lot more power vs. LH than RH and maybe that 94 should go down. And if he slumps this year, that's probably the first place that should get hit. However, I'd argue that's a small sample size (100 LH ABs and 375 RH ABs) and the three year ratio is a better set of data to generate the rating. I'm not saying you're wrong and Cruz won't terrorize LHP way more than RHP this year, I'm just showing you where the number originally came from (he's been more balanced in his career) and that you need to remember this is a projection for 2012 not an exercise in 2011 stat = 2K12 rating.

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

I understand what you want to say but that doesn't describe how so big differencies come into play.

Look at Curtis Granderson:
20,3 AB/HR the last three years. 95 vs RHP, 94 vs LHP.

Look at Tulowitzki:
19,8 AB/HR the last three years. 81 vs RHP, 95 vs LHP.

But Nelson Cruz:
17,5 AB/HR the last three years. 94 vs. RHP, 97 vs. LHP.

Carlos Gonzalez:
20,4 AB/HR the last three years. 81 vs. LHP, 86 vs. RHP.

Evan Longoria:
22,2 AB/HR the last three years. 90 vs. RHP, 94 vs. LHP.

Paul Konerko:
19,8 AB/HR the last three years. 90 vs. RHP, 94 vs. LHP.

You know why? Because sometimes - like I said - they put weight on last years performance, but not for everyone. While Granderson and Gonzalez nearly have similar stats over 3 three years they have quite different ratings, since Granderson hit more bombers last year. Also Longoria comes better than Konerko since Longoria had a career year. Granderson had 16,8 AB/HR last year, Gonzalez 20,8 AB/HR last year, Longoria 18,5 AB/HR, Konerko 20,3 AB/HR.

So why do they take 3 year stats for some players, while for others they take mainly the last year?

THAT is what makes me go crazy.

Chris Heisey has a 20,5 AB/HR ratio the last two years (he was not in the majors before). Last year he had a 17,1 AB/HR ratio. He has 79 vs. RHP and 73 vs LHP.

Is his sample size too small? Was it his fault he did'nt play more?

Paul Goldschmidt had a 22,1 AB/HR ratio. In the last update they pushed his power up to 91 vs. RHP and 90 vs. LHP. Last year was his first year. And this year he has one HR in 16 AB.

That makes no sense, sorry.

Either you do the same with all or you stop doing rosters...

[VC_Plant]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

I'm just the messager. Yes, they are weighed. I believe it was a 60/25/15 ratio. All the players are graded the same, there is no Nelson Cruz conspiracy (although Cruz and Freese were affected by their huge postseasons). It's formulas, not somebody typing in number. However, they may be fudged slightly up or down due to injuries or other factors since this is a projection and there are aberations. I think it was something like a minimum 400 ABs each season to receive full credit for your averages. Less than 400 ABs and the other ABs in the ratio come from the average player at your position (to avoid the Heisleys of the world going Kevin Maas). Remember... projection. Although I'm assuming you don't agree with the system, you do at least see the logic here, right?

[VC_Plant]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

Also, with Paul Goldschmidt and other rookies. Minor league stats were factored in (although downgraded quite a bit). He had a good major league start, good playoffs, and a monster minor league season.

[Zombeels]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

Also, with Paul Goldschmidt and other rookies. Minor league stats were factored in (although downgraded quite a bit). He had a good major league start, good playoffs, and a monster minor league season.

That doesn't make sense.

Give Goldschmidt 90 power because he excelled in the minors, but give Heisey 70 power because he's excelled in the majors.

[VC_Plant]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

That doesn't make sense.

Give Goldschmidt 90 power because he excelled in the minors, but give Heisey 70 power because he's excelled in the majors.

Goldschmidt

2009
18 HRs/287 ABs Minors

2010
35 HRs/525 ABs Minors

2011
30 HRs/366 ABs Minors
9 HRs/156 ABs Majors (Regular)
2 HRs/ 16 ABs Majors (Playoffs)

Heisey

2009
22 HRs/516 ABs Minors

2010
4 HRs/79 ABs Minors
8 HRs/201 ABs Majors

2011
1 HR/12 ABS Minors
18 HRs/290 ABs Majors

So sure, Heisey had a nice run and hit more HRs in the majors last year with nearly the same ratio (1-16 vs 1-15.6). But as a professional, Goldschmidt has been nearly doubling his HRs so Goldschmidt being 11 or 12 points higher for Power shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

I'm just the messager. Yes, they are weighed. I believe it was a 60/25/15 ratio. All the players are graded the same, there is no Nelson Cruz conspiracy (although Cruz and Freese were affected by their huge postseasons). It's formulas, not somebody typing in number. However, they may be fudged slightly up or down due to injuries or other factors since this is a projection and there are aberations. I think it was something like a minimum 400 ABs each season to receive full credit for your averages. Less than 400 ABs and the other ABs in the ratio come from the average player at your position (to avoid the Heisleys of the world going Kevin Maas). Remember... projection. Although I'm assuming you don't agree with the system, you do at least see the logic here, right?

What I said wasn't meant as an offense.
I can understand what you tell us and I see the logic behind, but you are right, somehow I cannot agree to that, which of course isn't your fault.

[Zombeels]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

How do they determine the rankings tweaks that come every week?

[wudl83]

Re: Overrated/Underrated Players

How do they determine the rankings tweaks that come every week?

In parts I think they react on user complaints. But not every time.