ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

[gregg23]

http://www.sportsworldny.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=8735

[Gary Armida]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

I'm a Yankee fan and I can honestly see a regression for him this year. I think last year was the best we could see from him. He's solid. I just think he got a lot of breaks last year.

Don't get me wrong, I love his demeanor on the mound and his plan, I just don't see the plus stuff. Pitchers who rely on their fielders so much are prone to year to year differences in results if that makes sense.

[nyisles16]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

I'm a Yankee fan and I can honestly see a regression for him this year. I think last year was the best we could see from him. He's solid. I just think he got a lot of breaks last year.

Don't get me wrong, I love his demeanor on the mound and his plan, I just don't see the plus stuff. Pitchers who rely on their fielders so much are prone to year to year differences in results if that makes sense.

this year i think he could also have "less pressure" as it were, on him.. with the way everyone was talking about RJ & how he was old, & some of the other guys not pitching well, the pressure was on Wang to step up.. this year with the additions of Pettite & some of the other guys, maybe it will help him... but too, with a year under the belt, maybe the hitters can figure him out?? who knows..

[NYJets]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

We'll see.

People said the same thing after his rookie year, and then next year he was better, even with a lower K rate. I don't think anyone would be surprised if he dropped off some, but I think there's no doubt he's going to at least be a middle of the rotation starter for most of his career. You can't just compare Wang to anyone with a low K rate, not many pitchers get the movement and velocity that he does. I don't know if he'll consistently be in Cy Young consideration but I think he'll be above average, and if he can work on his secondary pitches and start getting more K's he can be better than that. Kevin Brown didn't strike out a lot of batters early in his career either.

[nyisles16]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

tell ya what, the Mets would gladly take him...

[SPTO]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

Well....

You can go either way with Wang. He's definitely a sinker ball pitcher. That means he relies a lot on his infield and the Yanks generally have a pretty good middle infield. One thing that I noticed about his stats last year is that his ERA at home is a lot better then his ERA on the road. I was watching a Yankees telecast and they were explaining this is because the infield dirt at Yankee Stadium is a lot slower then the rest of the parks in the AL.

The other side of Wang is that if he's off or hitters figure him out and he's having to go very deep in his pitch count then they can hammer him as his sinker rises. I think he'll regress just a tad but he'll still have good numbers and quite awesome numbers at home.

[deeman11747]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

Like its been said... pitchers who have hitters put the ball in play as much as Wang does eventually run out of luck. I dont remember the stat but they use it on FireJoeMorgan and its something about batting averages on any AB thats not a K, BB, HBP, or HR.

Anyways with that said I dont think he'll regress that much if it all. He's so unbelievabely consistent in letting them pound the ball into the ground its much different from anything I've ever seen with "junk pitchers." The most comparable pitcher I can think of is Kevin Brown back when he didnt suck. He had that heavy sinker and guys just pounded it straight into the ground. Obviously Brown had a much higher K rate back in his day, which is why Wang probably wont approach the success Brown had.

His ERA is always going to be lower at home obviously because teams play the dirt different for him. The Yanks water it down in front of home plate to hopefully hold back any ball hit straight down while other teams make it hard like a rock to sped it up and try to get it through the infield. It should be interesting to see and hopefully he'll be healthy all year because I dont think he was last year.

[CMH]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

I think it's fair to say that Wang will have to start striking out hitters to remain consistently this good.

I'm not worried about him. He showed in his early minor league career that he could strike out hitters.

I am a firm believer that you let the hitters hit the ball because you'll simply be successfull 70% of the time (of course, it's more complicated than that. I don't mean throw it down the middle). And Wang does allow himself to pitch deep into games with his low pitch count.

I just think he'll have to mix the two - get grounders with some strikeouts.

[AI_Franchise]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

Wang is getting some us Taiwan-Chinese exposure..

[mjb2124]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

Like its been said... pitchers who have hitters put the ball in play as much as Wang does eventually run out of luck.

Yep. K/BB/IP is the first thing I like to look at to evaluate the effectiveness of any pitcher. If those numbers aren't great and the pitcher is giving up more H/IP, I start to worry about the long-term projections for that pitcher.

With that said, I'm on the side that thinks Wang will have a drop off next year. Not a major drop off, but a drop off nonetheless.

[ehh]

Re: ESPN Insider - Can Chien-Ming Wang repeat?

I think it depends on the opposition adjusting to his sinker more than anything else. If they can stop topping off his heavy sinker, he's going to be in a lot of trouble.

I'd be shocked if he wins 19 games again this year.