The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

[trancejeremy]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Hmmmm. I don't understand the logic.

With the pitcher at bat, you can either pinch hit, bunt, or let the pitcher hit and hope he continues to pitch well (and thus give up the run). And then you have to pick which guy to pinch hit, should it be your best pinch hitter, or someone who is a decent fielder and thus can come in on a double switch, and is that worth the loss of the guy he replace's bat?

With the DH, he's pretty much always just going to swing away, because the DH is almost always a guy who can hit for power, if not for average. (Though sometimes both). You really never want him to bunt.

I guess if you think of it as the spot in the batting order, #9, as opposed to just pitcher vs DH, it makes more sense. But even then, the average #9 hitter is generally no worse than the average #8 hitter in the NL. And so while the #9 guy might be pinch hit for occasionally, so would the #8 guy.

I do think that not having the DH in the NL tends to lead to a certain homogeny in run scoring patterns. Because all teams will likely have a fairly similar hitter in the #9 spot most of the time - that is, pretty bad, and then raised to above average part of the time (like once per game). However, in the AL, the DH can range from the best hitter in the league, to mediocre.

[Stu]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Hmmmm. I don't understand the logic.

With the pitcher at bat, you can either pinch hit, bunt, or let the pitcher hit and hope he continues to pitch well (and thus give up the run). And then you have to pick which guy to pinch hit, should it be your best pinch hitter, or someone who is a decent fielder and thus can come in on a double switch, and is that worth the loss of the guy he replace's bat?

The logic is that while an NL manager has those options, in most cases there isn't a decision. If theres a runner on 1st or 2nd with less than 2 outs, the pitcher is going to bunt. If a team is down late in the game with a couple runners on, they're going to pinch hit.

[fsquid]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

The DH rule was a dark day in the history of baseball. I will continue to not watch AL teams play unless they are playing the Mets.

[dalnet22]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Regardless of whether the DH is good for baseball or not, having different rules between the AL and NL is absurd. It's like the AFC in football playing NFL Europe for the championship. Why would two leagues that play a different brand of baseball play eachother for the ultimate championship? I'm really confused on this one.

[Knight165]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

The logic is that while an NL manager has those options, in most cases there isn't a decision. If theres a runner on 1st or 2nd with less than 2 outs, the pitcher is going to bunt. If a team is down late in the game with a couple runners on, they're going to pinch hit.

Okay...so in what situation are there MORE options when the DH comes to bat in those situations?
I like Bill James' work...but this is nonsense. It's just not logical(holy cow...I just turned into Spock)




M.K.
Knight165

[dce1228]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

This is what makes Bill James who he is. Always questioning the assumptions.

[Stu]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Okay...so in what situation are there MORE options when the DH comes to bat in those situations?
I like Bill James' work...but this is nonsense. It's just not logical(holy cow...I just turned into Spock)

M.K.
Knight165

I don't necessarily agree with James that the DH increases strategy. However, I do think that the level of strategy without a DH is vastly overrated.

[SPTO]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

A little OT but germaine to the subject:

I wonder if there's been a study on pitchers hitting ability for the 10 years before the DH rule and 10 years after. I'd like to know if pitchers actually hit a lot better before the DH when every pitcher was supposed to play a role offensively when they came up to bat. I have a feeling that once the DH rule became entrenched that hitting took a backseat when it comes to training pitchers to make it to the big leagues.

[BigRed]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

I don't necessarily agree with James that the DH increases strategy. However, I do think that the level of strategy without a DH is vastly overrated.

In the situation you presented, sure there might be changes that SHOULD be made, but what you didn't discuss is...who do you replace him with? Who should be the relief pitcher? What if the pitcher you have going is absolutely cruising, throwing BBs and has only topped 70 pitches?

What if you've only got 1 bench player left? What if your pitcher is Mark Hampton or Jason Marquis or Livan Henandez or Greg Maddux or Carlos Zambrano or Woody Williams and has a high batting average and can maybe even hit the ball out of the park? What if your bullpen was maxed out the night before or in the first game of a double header?

Then again, maybe you've got in a DH and you don't even ever have to consider ANY of these factors?

[Stu]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

In the situation you presented, sure there might be changes that SHOULD be made, but what you didn't discuss is...who do you replace him with? Who should be the relief pitcher? What if the pitcher you have going is absolutely cruising, throwing BBs and has only topped 70 pitches?

What if you've only got 1 bench player left? What if your pitcher is Mark Hampton or Jason Marquis or Livan Henandez or Greg Maddux or Carlos Zambrano or Woody Williams and has a high batting average and can maybe even hit the ball out of the park? What if your bullpen was maxed out the night before or in the first game of a double header?

Then again, maybe you've got in a DH and you don't even ever have to consider ANY of these factors?

AL managers have to make a lot of the decisions you listed. Every manager needs to make decisions on when to yank a pitcher, who to bring in, when to pinch hit, how to manage their bullpen, etc. I stand by the idea that in most cases, the situation dictates the strategy.

[Knight165]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

I just don't see how he asserts that using the DH adds more strategy to the game.

Both the NL and the AL have to make the same decisions while their pitchers are on the mound. That is a given.

Now....it's the 6th inning of a 1-0 game. The last game of a 3 game series in which your bullpen has been used quite a bit. Your pitcher is cruising and due up in your half of the inning are the 7,8 and 9 hitters. Your guys have been struggling to get walks or hits....Your first batter steps up and manages to draw a walk..your number 8 hitter hits a weak groundball to second and the runner advances to second......up steps........MELKY CABRERA!!!! Oh geez..I forgot, I took this managerial position in the AL...let him hit. I'm going to take a nap. Wake me when I gotta bring in Mariano

Seriously...if it was an NL team in the same position....what would you do?..and since Mr. James is arguing that the DH actually adds strategy... I think using DH/pitcher decisions is really the only strategy elements applicable.
I'm open to hear the AL strategy options.

M.K.
Knight165

[rudyjuly2]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Regardless of whether the DH is good for baseball or not, having different rules between the AL and NL is absurd. It's like the AFC in football playing NFL Europe for the championship. Why would two leagues that play a different brand of baseball play eachother for the ultimate championship? I'm really confused on this one.

I actually like that about baseball. Different parks and dimensions unlike every other sport. Even the different World Series rules don't bother me at all. I like to see how the other side adjusts.

I don't know if there is more strategy with a DH. I think there is less. Sure the manager doesn't have to make a move which is what they do - nothing. If you are down 2 runs in the 5th inning with your pitcher up to bat with 2 outs, do you yank him? That's not automatic and neither is the double switch.

Still, I generally like the DH rule. Jose Lind (career .254 hitter, 9 career home runs) recieved 19 intentional walks one year batting in the 8th spot. He had three straight years of double digits intential passes. That's a joke for a lousy hitter that won't punish you for a mistake. Pitchers get paid to pitch and batters get paid to bat. As an American league fan I can enjoy the occassional pitcher appearance at the plate but they usually suck.

[dalnet22]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

I actually like that about baseball. Different parks and dimensions like every sport. Even the different World Series rules don't bother me at all. I like to see how the other side adjusts.

I suppose you make a good point. I love the different ballparks because both teams have to play by its rules. I still don't think I like one league having different rules as the other. It almost feels like two types of baseball coming together to win one award.

[bukktown]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

Now....it's the 6th inning of a 1-0 game. The last game of a 3 game series in which your bullpen has been used quite a bit. Your pitcher is cruising and due up in your half of the inning are the 7,8 and 9 hitters. Your guys have been struggling to get walks or hits....Your first batter steps up and manages to draw a walk..your number 8 hitter hits a weak groundball to second and the runner advances to second......up steps........MELKY CABRERA!!!! Oh geez..I forgot, I took this managerial position in the AL...let him hit. I'm going to take a nap. Wake me when I gotta bring in Mariano

I think this is basically the crux of Bill's point. In the situation that you describe, a lot of AL teams would let the #9 hitter swing away. But a handful of them would bunt on occasion. Whereas in the NL, 99.9% of the time they will leave the pitcher in (for the reasons that you stated) and bunt the guy to 3rd. His conclusion came from quantitative data that there are different offensive styles in the AL, but not the NL. And he equated there being more options for offensive styles with more strategy.

The DH allows you the freedom to assemble whatever offense you want-strategically. You get 27 outs in the AL, the NL gets 24 basically. Once every 9 hitters you get a free out, which really hinders the NL manager's offensive gameplan.

During a game a NL manager has to make more decisions = more strategy

During a season an AL manager has more options to create runs = more strategy
Its kind of apples and oranges as far as being 2 different types of strategy. The NL has more "tangible" (for lack of a better word) strategy. The AL has more theoretical strategy.

[Brophog]

Re: The DH rule INCREASES strategy --Bill James

I just don't see how he asserts that using the DH adds more strategy to the game.

That phrasing is why so many on this thread are having a hard time wrapping their head around this. It's not necessarily adding but rather the fact the NL forces a certain strategy. It's addition by subtraction, so to speak.

His argument is that the NL forces certain decisions being made, thereby decreasing the overall possibilities. It's not the same as the AL adding something, but merely an increase in the overall differential.