Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

[wangjaz]

an interesting analysis on the new deal i just found on google.
but be warned, its very loooong.

http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/11/ichiro-20-million-a-year/

[rubisco43]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

I'm sorry... there's no such thing as a $20 mil "steal." Ichiro might be one of the few exceptions to the rule, but players tend to decline in production past 30 years old. He's 32/33 now and will be 37/38 by the time this deal ends. I think he was worth $20mil/year his first 4 seasons, but I think his production will gradually decline over the course of the contract. But hey, it's not all about production right? He brings fans to the seats and opened up marketing opportunities in Japan, and I'm sure that played a part in the Mariners thinking.

[Coug00]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

I'm sorry... there's no such thing as a $20 mil "steal." Ichiro might be one of the few exceptions to the rule, but players tend to decline in production past 30 years old. He's 32/33 now and will be 37/38 by the time this deal ends. I think he was worth $20mil/year his first 4 seasons, but I think his production will gradually decline over the course of the contract. But hey, it's not all about production right? He brings fans to the seats and opened up marketing opportunities in Japan, and I'm sure that played a part in the Mariners thinking.

Dave Cameron is just about the smartest baseball guy not employed by a team. He addressed the aging issue in his blog. Ichiro may not be worth the 20 million towards the end of the contract, but at the beginning of the contract its an absolute steal. Over the course of the contract its still a steal.

And with Ichiro's stretching and workout regimen I have a hard time believing he's going to decline much by the end of the contract. The guy is a machine off the field. The biggest perfectionist I've ever seen.

[snepp]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

And with Ichiro's stretching and workout regimen I have a hard time believing he's going to decline much by the end of the contract. The guy is a machine off the field. The biggest perfectionist I've ever seen.

I tried to explain this to a fellow Twins fan who insisted that because Hunter is a couple years younger that he would be better long term signing. Nevermind that Hunter is reckless in the field, is constantly beating himself up, and is already showing signs of slowing down in the field.

As with any conversation you can have with a homer, it didn't go over very well.

[Coug00]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

Nevermind that Hunter is reckless in the field, is constantly beating himself up, and is already showing signs of slowing down in the field.

Bingo. Ichiro doesn't dive in the outfield either. He sees his body as a temple and takes care of it. He's the antithesis of Griffey while he was in Seattle. Junior didn't take care of himself and his body was so hammered after diving around the Kingdome for all those years.

[mgoblue]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

But hey, it's not all about production right? He brings fans to the seats and opened up marketing opportunities in Japan, and I'm sure that played a part in the Mariners thinking.

Exactly...Ichiro's worth it when you combine playing, marketing, the Japanese fans, etc. I'm not convinced any player's worth 20 million a year on playing alone, but when you factor in the intangibles, as well as the fact that Ichiro's a class act, you've gotta do it.

[Scottdau]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

I will tell you why it is a steal it is only five years. It is the 10 year contracts that can hurt a team.

[thaima1shu]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

Exactly...Ichiro's worth it when you combine playing, marketing, the Japanese fans, etc. I'm not convinced any player's worth 20 million a year on playing alone, but when you factor in the intangibles, as well as the fact that Ichiro's a class act, you've gotta do it.

Agreed. There's no way that he's not worth it when you take into consideration everything that he brings to the table. He IS the Seattle Mariners. You just can't lose him and there's no such thing as overpaying for this guy. They need him.

[Scottdau]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

Bingo. Ichiro doesn't dive in the outfield either. He sees his body as a temple and takes care of it. He's the antithesis of Griffey while he was in Seattle. Junior didn't take care of himself and his body was so hammered after diving around the Kingdome for all those years.

Plus is looks like he is 15 years old and in great shape. He can last awhile.

[dieselboy]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

Just from a revenue side, he is worth it.

[Seahawk76]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

Ichiro is absolutely obsessed with stretching and keeping his body limber and that should add to his longevity. The guy is all wiry muscle with almost no body fat and I don't think anyone else in baseball keeps their body as finely tuned as Ichiro does. You can probably throw out the normal aging patterns with him.

[snepp]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

I think this says it best (courtesy of some guy on a Twins board), when someone asked what Ichiro has that Hunter doesn't:

"Ichiro has 125 million rabid baseball fans." (paraphrasing a bit)

[rdeyes]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

seattle lost griffey,arod, and big unit i don't think they can afford to let ichiro leave. seattle has a huge asian population and having ichiro draws them to safeco.

[skitch]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

It's a great deal if they can use the revenue he creates to bring some other top of the line players into Seattle...

[CoRruPt-]

Re: Why Ichiro at 20mil is a steal

And now Marlins president David Samson is whining about the contract and how it will ruin baseball:

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2007/7/12/181724/353

I'm pretty sure if Loria was willing to open up his wallet to allow the Marlins to actually sign someone, then they would do the same thing.

Samson will probably whine to no end if A-Rod gets $30mil a year.