D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

[snepp]

Re: D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

It's only a three year contract, the team isn't exactly locked into a decade long albatross. If they decide they don't want him next year at the deadline his short contract will make him an excellent trade chip (assuming he doesn't fall on his face). The alternative was losing him for nothing in the offseason. I just don't see any real downside to this deal.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

It's only a three year contract, the team isn't exactly locked into a decade long albatross. If they decide they don't want him next year at the deadline his short contract will make him an excellent trade chip (assuming he doesn't fall on his face). The alternative was losing him for nothing in the offseason. I just don't see any real downside to this deal.

They're not going to deal him. If he's good they'll keep him, but I predict a regression, and if he regresses back to league average they're not going to be able to unload that contract until at least the third season. Not unless they either pay for a chunk of it or do it Marlins style (ie - Lowell) and send off something valuable to make up the difference. The downside to the deal is they just tied up a lot of salary on a guy who has been maybe the 10th best outfielder in the NL this year and will likely go back to being a mediocre player sooner rather than later.

What they could have done instead of signing him to this deal is wait until after the season ends then offer him arbitration. There would be two advantages. One, if he accepted then they get him back for one year for a similar amount to the $10M they're otherwise paying him for 2008. He might get a little more but I still think we're talking about a guy who is going to regress back to his career norms. The second advantage is that he could refuse arbitration to sign a multi-year deal with another team. I think he would have done this since this is probably his one and only chance to really make some big money.

If he refuses and signs with another team then the D-backs would get compensation picks. If he's ranked in the Top 30% of his position then he would be a class A guy and the D-backs would get the first rounder of the signing team as well as a pick created in between the first and second rounds of the draft. If he's deemed to be in the Top 50% of his position then the D-backs would only get the signing team's first rounder. I think he's a lock as a Type B and has a chance at being rules a Type A. It tough to tell though since the formula is a secret and it accounts for all MLB players at the position.

[snepp]

Re: D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

Free agent composition has changed slightly. Only the top 20% are Type A's, with the next 20% being Type B's. Type B's no longer receive direct compensation from the signing team, they are sandwich picks.

Byrnes will likely be a Type B, with little chance of being an A.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

Yea, sorry, I always screw it up because we don't deal much with the compensation stuff in Boston except for perpetually losing out first rounder. Did that change this year or something?

Still, I'd take a sandwich pick over using 15% of their team's salary on a guy like Byrnes. It's a bad contract for a so-so player. For what it's worth, the folks over on this D-backs forum seem to agree with me: http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org...er=asc&start=0

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: D'Backs GM grows brain... signs Byrnes to extension

Some of my favorite responses from that forum:

"This is a risky move. Let's hope he stays productive for another 3 years. Let's hope we aren't reminded of Russ Ortiz and Shawn Green somewhere along the line and Carlos Quentin doesn't end up being really good like Brad Penny."

"I sincerely hope that the guys who made the decision to spend 1/6th of the D-backs annual budget for player salaries on Eric Byrnes will give the other Byrnes some extra cash to get a pitcher or 2 or 3 this offseason..."

"Looking far into the future, but I guess that means Tracy's 2010 $7 million option won't be picked up."

"The team is out $30 million. They've locked up a career 102 OPS+ in left field. A guy that put up a 95 OPS+ last year. They're banking on a guy basically defying everything he's done in his career starting at age 31. This is a big gamble."

"For the record - i dont think it is a disaster. Just not the best."

Oh, and are they right about him having a no trade clause? Oof.