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$ The Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
First, the Reds have the structural advantage of playing in what figures to be baseball's weakest division. Second, they have substantial talent. Adam Dunn has turned in four straight 40-homer seasons, Ken Griffey Jr. enjoyed a nice renaissance in 2007, Edwin Encarnacion has promise going forward, Jay Bruce is the preseason favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, Brandon Phillips is coming off a 30-30 campaign, and Joey Votto figures to be an immediate contributor. In other words, the Reds should score plenty of runs.
As for the pitching, it's improved, especially in the bullpen. They finally have a shutdown closer in Francisco Cordero, and Bill Bray should be healthy. The rotation is where Cincy's fate will be decided. More specifically, youngsters Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez must step up. Both have strong minor league dossiers and excellent stuff, but both have thus far failed to transition to the highest level.
If Bailey and Volquez are able to realize their potential, then the Reds will have something more than a puncher's chance in the Central. Both the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are better teams on paper, but the Reds can make some noise. In fact, they're the team best positioned to pull off a big surprise in 2008.
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